Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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092
FXUS65 KABQ 290927
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
327 AM MDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A wet early week period is shaping-up for much of central and
eastern New Mexico, especially between the south central
mountains and the Texas border where a couple inches of rain is
possible. Moisture will increase from southeast to northwest over
the next couple of days, brining good chances for rain all the way
to the Continental Divide. Daytime temperatures will be below
normal through at least mid week thanks to rain cooling and
additional cloud cover. Temperatures will trend up late week and
into the weekend, but good chances for storms will persist through
at least Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
00z upper air analysis showed the upper low over the AZ/NM border
near Gallup, while the latest water vapor satellite imagery shows
the circulation over northwest New Mexico with eastward progress
stalling. The overall forecast scenario of the upper low filling
and getting absorbed into an inverted trough moving slowly
westward across New Mexico is still in play. The flow around the
dominant upper high center over the Mississippi River Valley
supports moisture advection from southeast to northwest across the
state through the next 48hrs, with PWATs trending above to well
above normal. The 00z model solutions are generous with the QPF
through Wednesday, especially from the central mountains southeast
to the Texas border. Our QPF is close to WPC and shows the most
significant amounts from the south central mountains east across
Chaves and Roosevelt Counties where +2.0" amounts are likely. The
NAM is most bullish with the QPF and the 06z run has trended up
from the already bullish 00z run showing significant rain over the
southeast and east central plains tonight into Tuesday. Given
decreasing dynamics with the upper low filling and daytime
temperatures below to well below normal limiting instability,
having a hard time buying some of the higher QPF amounts, but a
multi-wave soaking rain event is a good bet at this point for
areas east of the central mountain chain and south of I-40. Later
shifts will need to consider a flash flood watch, especially for
Chaves, Curry and Roosevelt Counties where soils are already
saturated.

The upper high is forecast to transition westward to over far west
Texas by Thursday as a potent trough hits the west coast. The
westerlies will begin to punch into the state late Thursday and
will interact with abundant atmospheric moisture to produce a
fairly vigorous round of storms. Same setup for Friday, but with
stronger westerlies and improved moisture convergence as the upper
level trough progresses east into the intermountain west. A late
week warming trend will bring daytime temperatures close to normal
by Friday. A drier atmosphere will limit coverage of storms over
the weekend, but a more active monsoon setup will be in play early
next week as the upper high recenters to the east and another
potent west coast trough moves inland per both the 00z GFS and
ECMWF.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As August winds down and the final weeks of the monsoon season are
upon us, the weather pattern appears to remain fairly active with
regard to thunderstorms, mostly in the southern and eastern tiers of
NM. Sufficiently high humidity and generally light to moderate
breezes will preclude any critical fire weather conditions for the
ABQ fire weather forecast area the next several days.

The highest moisture will be found in the eastern plains of NM
today, gradually seeping farther into the southern tier and up into
central zones of NM into Tuesday and Wednesday. This will be where
the highest prospects of wetting rain will reside with some
substantial amounts being found over the eastern half of the
forecast area through middle of the week.

While little to no precipitation is forecast for the far northwest
corner of NM through Wednesday, dewpoints will stay high enough to
keep minimum humidity at 25 percent or higher. Haines indices will
remain low to moderate with values of only 2 to 3 due to the higher
boundary layer humidities and suppressed mid level temperature lapse
rates.

Any wind concerns will be primarily relegated to local thunderstorm
outflows, but the long duration east southeast surface flow that
will be in place over much of NM through mid week will drive some
accelerated gusts through gaps/canyons within the central mountain
chain. These gusts would be most likely in the early evening hours
with storms over the eastern plains governing the strength and
timing to a degree.

Toward Thursday the surface and low layer flow will turn more
southerly, distributing moisture more evenly across NM, but toward
the upcoming weekend a more westerly component to the winds will
introduce some drier air that will battle with the existing plume of
moisture.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A weak and slow moving upper level low over NW NM will gradually
weaken tonight through Monday, but it will work with a high
pressure system E of NM to draw and steer a moist low level
return flow NWWD into central and E NM tonight and Monday. There
is a good chance of low clouds with MVFR and possibly locally IFR
conditions at all TAF sites E of the central MT chain late tonight
into Monday morning. The best chance will be at ROW. With all the
moisture in place, SCT to NMRS showers and thunderstorms are
forecast Monday mainly along and just E of the central MT chain
and across the SE plains. Another round of low clouds is likely
across the E Monday night.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  82  56  84  58 /  20  10  10  10
Dulce...........................  79  48  79  50 /  50  20  20  20
Cuba............................  76  49  74  51 /  50  30  30  30
Gallup..........................  78  50  81  52 /  20  20  20  20
El Morro........................  74  48  75  49 /  20  20  30  30
Grants..........................  77  50  77  50 /  20  20  30  30
Quemado.........................  76  51  77  52 /  20  30  40  30
Glenwood........................  86  59  85  58 /  20  30  50  50
Chama...........................  70  43  71  44 /  60  40  60  40
Los Alamos......................  75  52  73  52 /  40  40  40  40
Pecos...........................  74  51  71  51 /  60  60  60  60
Cerro/Questa....................  73  46  72  47 /  60  60  60  50
Red River.......................  66  41  64  42 /  60  60  60  60
Angel Fire......................  69  37  67  40 /  60  60  60  60
Taos............................  75  44  74  46 /  40  40  40  30
Mora............................  70  48  68  48 /  60  50  60  60
Espanola........................  78  53  77  52 /  30  30  30  30
Santa Fe........................  76  54  73  53 /  50  50  50  40
Santa Fe Airport................  79  53  76  52 /  30  30  40  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  80  57  79  57 /  40  40  40  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  82  59  80  59 /  30  30  40  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  84  56  83  57 /  20  30  30  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  83  59  82  59 /  20  30  30  30
Los Lunas.......................  84  57  83  58 /  20  30  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  83  58  81  58 /  30  30  30  30
Socorro.........................  84  60  84  60 /  20  30  40  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  76  53  73  53 /  50  50  60  40
Tijeras.........................  79  54  74  54 /  50  50  50  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  78  50  74  52 /  50  50  50  30
Clines Corners..................  72  50  69  52 /  50  60  50  40
Gran Quivira....................  76  53  72  54 /  50  40  50  30
Carrizozo.......................  80  56  77  58 /  40  40  40  40
Ruidoso.........................  69  53  64  52 /  60  60  60  60
Capulin.........................  76  50  73  51 /  50  40  60  40
Raton...........................  79  50  76  51 /  50  40  50  40
Springer........................  78  52  76  53 /  40  40  40  30
Las Vegas.......................  74  49  71  50 /  50  50  60  40
Clayton.........................  79  58  77  58 /  50  50  40  40
Roy.............................  75  55  75  55 /  50  50  40  30
Conchas.........................  79  60  77  60 /  50  50  40  40
Santa Rosa......................  82  59  78  59 /  50  50  50  50
Tucumcari.......................  83  60  79  61 /  50  60  50  40
Clovis..........................  79  60  76  60 /  60  60  60  60
Portales........................  78  61  75  61 /  60  60  60  60
Fort Sumner.....................  79  62  76  62 /  60  60  50  40
Roswell.........................  82  62  75  63 /  60  60  60  60
Picacho.........................  76  57  71  58 /  50  60  60  60
Elk.............................  72  55  68  56 /  50  60  60  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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