Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 252102
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
302 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...BEFORE CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY EACH FRONT...WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONTS WILL
TRANSLATE TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THURSDAY. DRY AND WARM
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. SLIGHT COOLING AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE OBS HAVE THE INITIAL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSH JUST
SOUTH OF TUCUMCARI...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH JUST PASSING
CLAYTON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PACIFIC FRONT IS NOW PAST
FARMINGTON AND MOVING SE. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND EACH
FRONT...WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE EVENING HRS. EXPECT MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND EACH FRONT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS DROPPING
BTWN 5 AND 20 DEGREES FROM THIS MORNINGS LOWS. DUE TO RECENT WARM
WEATHER AND THOSE WHO PLANTED EARLY...WILL KEEP SPECIAL STATEMENT
OVER FOR POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPS IN RGV.

RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...RESULTING A GREAT PERIOD FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THURSDAY WILL WARM
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SATURDAY ACROSS THE STATE...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING HIGHS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY...THOUGH MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AROUND THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL START TO BREAKDOWN THE RIDGE SUNDAY...BUT WITH
THE GFS SHOWING THE FIRST DISTURBANCE MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE
ECMWF. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...COOLING
TEMPERATURES IN THE NE...AND CREATING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN MTS. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BE
FARTHER SOUTH AND PASS THE STATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS CAUSE FOR INCREASED FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS HAS TWO TROUGHS PHASING AS THEY PASS JUST
SOUTH OF NM...PRODUCING COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MTS TUESDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS A SINGLE CLOSED LOW FARTHER
SOUTH...PRODUCING LITTLE IMPACT FOR NM OTHER THAN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS. CURRENT FORECAST SLIGHTLY FAVORS GFS...BUT EDITS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MADE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES. DRIER BUT
WINDIER WEATHER DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK PERIOD AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ALOFT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
QUICK HITTING DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW...OVER THE NORTHERN MTS AND FAR NORTHEAST. ISOLATED
LIGHTNING POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION...AND IN A NARROW
STRIP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
PLAINS...AS WELL AS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU TO THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER AND NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE WITH
RH RECOVERIES IMPROVING FROM LAST NIGHT. SHOWERS AND WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AFTER MEAGER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP NORTH
AND WEST. THE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY BUT THE EAST
SHOULD STILL SEE GOOD VENT RATES WHILE THE WEST IS DOMINATED BY FAIR
TO POOR RATES. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WARM CONSIDERABLY AND VENT RATES WILL BE A
MIXED BAG BASED ON LOCATION AND POSSIBLY STRENGTH OF THE LEE TROUGH
FORECAST TO DEVELOP.

THEREAFTER...MODELS STILL INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND TRACK OF
DISTURBANCES. THE RIDGE COULD BE FLATTENED AS SOON AS SATURDAY...AND
HIGHS THAT DAY MAY BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...REACHING 5 TO OVER 15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS COULD INCREASE
SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES COULD COOL SOMEWHAT...BUT AGAIN THAT/S
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE INCOMING SYSTEM TRACKS. IT COULD BE ANYWHERE
FROM SONORA TO UTAH...OR THERE COULD BE 2 SYSTEMS THAT ATTEMPT TO PHASE.
BUT IT DOES LOOK DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY 26/06Z. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THEREAFTER WITH LCL MVFR VSBYS IN BLDU
POSSIBLE. SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND EASTERN PLAINS MAY SEE LCL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AND MT OSCURATIONS IN -SHRASN 25/21Z-26/06Z WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED BY 26/12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  28  62  31  71 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  23  59  25  68 /   5   0   0   0
CUBA............................  24  58  29  68 /   5   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  19  64  23  71 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  21  59  26  65 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  20  62  22  71 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  22  60  27  66 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  34  70  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  17  53  23  63 /  10   5   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  27  57  34  66 /   5   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  25  54  32  66 /  10   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  18  55  24  65 /  30   5   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  18  48  23  56 /  40   5   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  14  52  19  59 /  40   5   5   5
TAOS............................  20  58  25  67 /  20   5   0   5
MORA............................  22  56  30  66 /  20   5   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  28  61  32  72 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  26  56  35  65 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  28  59  32  69 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  33  61  37  70 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  36  64  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  31  67  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  33  64  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  34  65  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  33  63  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  36  66  37  77 /   5   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  28  56  36  67 /   5   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  27  59  35  70 /   5   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  21  61  29  70 /   5   5   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  24  57  33  68 /  10   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  28  58  34  69 /   5   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  33  60  37  71 /   5   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  30  56  38  68 /  10   5   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  20  55  26  66 /  40   5   0   0
RATON...........................  23  58  28  70 /  40   5   0   5
SPRINGER........................  22  60  29  69 /  40   5   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  20  56  31  68 /  20   5   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  28  61  36  70 /  40   5   0   0
ROY.............................  28  58  34  69 /  30   5   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  32  64  37  72 /  20   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  34  63  38  73 /  20   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  32  65  36  77 /  20   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  30  60  38  74 /  10   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  32  61  37  74 /  10   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  34  62  38  76 /  10   5   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  39  64  37  81 /   5   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  36  60  35  75 /  10   5   0   0
ELK.............................  33  56  35  68 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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