Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 261141 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
541 AM MDT THU MAY 26 2016
12Z TAF CYCLE
Upper low over central AZ will lift east-ne across northern NM
this afternoon. Strong southwest winds across the eastern plains will
be the main impact to aviation this afternoon and evening. Gusts
to around 35kt likely at KLVS, KROW and KTCC. Mid and upper level
moisture and instability will increase across northwest third of
NM with ISOLD afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
developing, some with virga and gusty winds or brief rain but
conditions will generally remain vfr. Winds will transition to
wly across the wrn half of the state during the late
afternoon/early evening. Showers/t-storms and winds will gradually
diminish after sunset.
.PREV DISCUSSION...308 AM MDT THU MAY 26 2016...
A Pacific system will move across the Land of Enchantment later
today and tonight...bringing windy conditions across eastern New
Mexico and a round of showers and storms favoring the northern and
western high terrain. A cool-down will begin later today and
continue into Friday with continued chances for showers and storms
favoring the northern mountains and northeast plains. A warm-up is
forecast for the weekend...with daytime temperatures rising to
near normal by Sunday. Chances for showers and storms will
continue into the weekend...favoring the eastern plains on Sunday
when more significant dryline storms are possible. Temperatures
will continue near normal through the middle of next week with
chances for showers and storms favoring the eastern plains and
Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper low on
approach from over western Arizona...with a preceding dry slot
shifting over central and southern New Mexico. A lack of moisture
will significantly limit the wetting potential of this system with
the dryline forecast to shift east into Texas this morning. Dry
showers and storms are looking more likely later today with plenty
of instability forecast as the upper low moves into western New
Mexico by afternoon. A 992mb surface low is still forecast over
southeast Colorado by 00z this evening and our wind speed forecast
is similar to the previous forecast cycle...just shy of low-end
wind advisory criteria across the south central mountains and
eastern plains. A Pacific cold front will push east across our
area tonight as the upper low pulls northeast into eastern
Colorado. Precipitation chances will favor the northern mountains
overnight...with some accumulating snow likely above 10k ft.
Precipitation chances will favor the northeast quarter Friday as
the upper low wobbles south a bit and is slow to pull out of
Colorado. Below normal temperatures will continue Friday behind
the cold front...especially across the northeast quarter thanks to
clouds and potential rain-cooling.
A warm-up is forecast over the weekend with shortwave ridging
between the departing upper low and a developing...weaker upper
low over southern California. Daytime temperatures will be back to
near late May normals by Sunday. Daytime heating triggered
convection on Saturday will be mostly dry...but deeper convection
is possible along the dryline Sunday across the eastern plains.
Another round of dryline storms are possible late Monday near the
Texas border. Differences between the 00z GFS and ECMWF for mid to
late next week with the handling of the weak and slow moving
upper low over northwest Mexico are leading to slightly lower
forecaster confidence...but the eastern plains look to be favored
for more showers and storms while western New Mexico remains
mostly dry and warm due to a lack of moisture.
Closed upper low near Prescott, AZ beginning to show signs of
lifting northeastward toward the four corners early this morning.
This low will result in cooler temperatures along with a few showers
or thunderstorms across the norhwest third of the state today and
tonight. The one exception will be across the eastern plains where
strong southwest winds ahead of the surface cold front will combine
with a very dry and unstable airmass to create critical fire weather
conditions. Any showers or storms that develop across the northwest
will be mainly dry as surface dewpoint temperatures remain in the
upper teens to near twenty. The low/trough lifts northeastward into
the central plains Friday with relatively moist west-northwest flow
left in its wake. This flow results in a few afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms from the northern mountains east to the
Texas line Friday afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, the flow aloft begins to back to southwesterly ahead of
the next upper level trough taking shape over southern California.
Gulf moisture surges northwestward into eastern NM Saturday night,
setting the stage for at least isolated thunderstorms across the
eastern plains Sunday and Monday afternoons. GFS now trying to dry
things out Monday but the run to run consistent ECMWF keeps
thunderstorm chances across the eastern plains Monday afternoon and
evening. ECWMF keeps more of a northwesterly orientation to the flow
aloft across the central Rockies, sending a backdoor cold front into
eastern NM Tuesday. Trended the dewpoint temperature and wind
forecast more toward the wetter and run to run consistent ECMWF
solution for Tuesday through Thursday.
As is typical during late May, ventilation rates remain in the very
good to excellent range areawide today through Monday. Vent rates
decrease somewhat Tuesday but remain fair or better all areas.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
for the following zones... NMZ104-108.