Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 202130
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
330 PM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017

...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow-moving disturbance embedded within a surge of monsoon
moisture will continue to increase the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. On Friday, some storms
west of the Rio Grande will produce locally heavy rainfall with
isolated flash flooding events possible. The risk of flash flooding
will increase and spread to include central New Mexico Saturday. The
focus for flash flooding on Sunday will be along and east of the
continental divide to New Mexico`s eastern border. The potential for
flash flooding could linger into Monday over the south central
mountains and much of the eastern plains as the disturbance gradually
exits to the south and east of New Mexico. Temperatures will also trend
downward with a back door cold front across northern and eastern
areas Saturday, then areawide on Sunday when highs will bottom out a
few to around 10 degrees below normal. Drier air is forecast to
arrive from the northeast on Tuesday with a downtick in thunderstorm
coverage and rainfall intensity, as well as warmer temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The main 500 mb high pressure center is now migrating to the
Mississippi River Valley where it will remain through Friday. This
will allow a nice surge of monsoon moisture and an embedded
disturbance (formerly an easterly wave that recently crossed southern
NM) to lift northward over western NM with locally heavy rainfall
Friday and Friday night. The 500 mb high will redevelop over the
Great Basin Saturday, where it will linger through Sunday before
migrating eastward over CO and northern NM on Monday. This will shift the
monsoon moisture surge and embedded disturbance eastward over
central NM Saturday, then over central and eastern NM on Sunday. It
will also allow the aforementioned back door cold front into north
central and northeast areas Saturday, with a stronger push of cooler
and moist air into central and western parts of the state on Sunday.
Precipitable water values will spike, with readings over 1.2 inches
expected at Albuquerque both Saturday and Sunday, when the risk of
flash flooding will be most widespread.

Drier air is forecast to rotate around the upper high and over
eastern and central NM on Tuesday, decreasing the risk of flash
flooding but allowing thunderstorms to continue with less coverage.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A sprawling dome of high pressure centered over the southern Great
Plains will focus the main axis of monsoon moisture over central and
western NM through Friday. Meanwhile the eastern plains will remain
very hot and storm free. Storm motions over central and western NM
will be toward the north/northwest thru this evening. The largest
wetting rainfall footprints through Friday will be along and west of
the Cont Dvd. Storm motions Friday will shift more toward the north/
northeast and slow, therefore the chance for locally heavy rainfall
will increase.

The potential for more widespread heavy rainfall is increasing over
the weekend as low level flow becomes more east/southeast across NM
and a weak upper level disturbance slides over the area. The threat
for flash flooding will also increase, particularly on steep terrain
and areas of western NM that see heavy rainfall the next two days.
Overnight recoveries will be excellent most areas. Lighter winds
aloft will lead to poor/fair ventilation most areas through the
weekend. Temperatures will trend cooler with higher minimum humidity
values all areas.

The active weather pattern will likely continue through next week
while the upper high reorganizes over the Four Corners region then
drifts slowly east over NM. This will lead to daily rounds of
terrain driven convection with locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures
will average near to slightly below with relatively high humidity,
thicker cloud cover, and overall poor/fair ventilation.

Guyer

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA will focus over central and western NM today where an axis
of moist instability is sliding northwest across the region. Storm
motions will be toward the north/northwest btwn 15 and 20kt. Direct
hits will produce strong outflows and brief heavy rainfall. The best
chances will be near KGUP where the longest duration for TSRA is
expected. Storms are firing up quickly south of KABQ so VCTS may
occur earlier than projected. SHRA/TSRA will linger into the evening
along and west of the Cont Dvd where thick mid level cloud cover may
persist until sunrise. Another round of storms with even greater
coverage of heavy rainfall is likely Friday for central and western
NM.

Guyer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  64  90  64  90 /  40  30  30  20
Dulce...........................  54  84  54  83 /  40  40  30  50
Cuba............................  57  82  57  82 /  30  40  40  50
Gallup..........................  58  85  58  87 /  40  40  50  50
El Morro........................  53  80  53  82 /  50  60  60  60
Grants..........................  56  83  56  84 /  30  40  50  50
Quemado.........................  58  79  58  82 /  40  60  60  60
Glenwood........................  63  83  63  85 /  60  60  40  60
Chama...........................  50  80  51  77 /  40  50  40  70
Los Alamos......................  62  81  61  80 /  20  30  30  50
Pecos...........................  58  83  59  81 /  20  20  20  60
Cerro/Questa....................  53  81  54  77 /  30  30  30  70
Red River.......................  47  73  48  68 /  30  40  40  70
Angel Fire......................  41  77  43  73 /  20  30  30  70
Taos............................  54  85  54  82 /  10  20  20  60
Mora............................  55  82  55  77 /  10  30  30  60
Espanola........................  65  89  64  87 /  10  20  20  30
Santa Fe........................  62  83  62  81 /  20  20  20  50
Santa Fe Airport................  61  88  61  86 /  20  20  20  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  91  66  90 /  30  20  20  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  89  67  89 /  20  20  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  91  66  91 /  20  20  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  92  66  91 /  20  20  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  62  92  63  92 /  20  20  20  30
Rio Rancho......................  67  90  67  90 /  20  20  20  30
Socorro.........................  65  90  66  91 /  20  20  30  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  56  86  57  85 /  30  30  20  40
Tijeras.........................  62  88  62  86 /  30  30  20  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  85  57  84 /  10  20  20  30
Clines Corners..................  57  85  58  83 /  10  20  20  40
Gran Quivira....................  60  84  60  84 /  20  20  20  40
Carrizozo.......................  63  86  63  86 /  20  30  20  40
Ruidoso.........................  56  79  57  79 /  20  60  30  50
Capulin.........................  58  88  57  80 /   0   5  10  50
Raton...........................  56  92  57  84 /   5  10  10  60
Springer........................  58  92  58  87 /   0   5  10  50
Las Vegas.......................  56  85  56  82 /   5  10  10  40
Clayton.........................  64  95  64  90 /   0   0   5  20
Roy.............................  62  90  61  87 /   0   0  10  40
Conchas.........................  70  96  69  95 /   0   5   5  30
Santa Rosa......................  65  94  66  93 /   0   5  10  30
Tucumcari.......................  69 100  68  98 /   0   0   5  20
Clovis..........................  66  94  67  94 /   0   5   5  20
Portales........................  69  93  70  93 /   0   5   5  20
Fort Sumner.....................  68  93  68  93 /   0   5   5  30
Roswell.........................  70  97  70  97 /   5  10   5  30
Picacho.........................  64  88  64  88 /  10  20  10  40
Elk.............................  60  81  60  82 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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