Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 252344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016


Widely scattered showers should be on the decrease through 03Z as
daytime heating comes to an end and dry air continues to push
into New Mexico. Most TAF locations should remain VFR through the
period with the possible exception of KFMN, where sufficient
moisture remains in the boundary layer for the potential of fog
and low status formation between 06-11Z. Some guidance is hinting
at gusty winds developing in the 17-22Z time frame at KROW and
KTCC, but at this time confidence is low enough to preclude
including these winds in the 00Z package.



.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016...
Light showers will linger across central areas before diminishing
toward the evening hours as drier air filters in from the west.
There will be potential for patchy fog developing overnight
across the northwest plateau because of lingering surface moisture
but skies will clear areawide. A warmer, drier pattern will
dominate the state Wednesday through Friday as upper level ridging
builds over the Desert Southwest. The far northwest corner of the
state could see minimal rain chances Friday evening because of an
upper level disturbance.



Temperatures were cooler today because of cloud cover and a few
morning/early afternoon showers central and west but most of the
shower activity will gradually taper off by the evening hours as
mid level drier air filters in the from the west. The incoming
drier air will also diminish cloud cover tonight areawide.
Because of lingering low level moisture across the northwest
plateau from previous showers, there could be potential of patchy
fog development overnight before burning off by mid morning
Wednesday. Temperatures will also be cooler tonight into Wednesday
across eastern areas with help from a back door cold front
dropping south.

Look for warmer, drier conditions with occasional local breezes
Wednesday through Friday as high pressure dominates the area
before shifting eastward. By Friday, upper level winds begin to
turn southwesterly as the upper level ridging breaks down as it
shifts eastward and as an upper level shortwave inches toward the
state, with minimal rain chances clipping the extreme northwest
Friday evening. As the shortwave passes through the state Friday
evening into Saturday, look for occasional mountain wave activity
to develop along the Sangre De Cristos with mid level moisture
favoring central and western areas. Upper level winds will
increase late Saturday through midweek of next week as several
upper level shortwave troughs cross over the state. Expect some
downslope winds to impact areas east of the central mountain



A shortwave trough moved over the area last night through this
morning, bringing increased humidity and showers to much of central
and western New mexico though only the northwest quarter of the
state experienced wetting rains.

Improved moisture in the lower boundary layer will be hard to mix-
out given a large and dominant ridge of high pressure forecast to
build up over the region through Thursday. Vent rates will take a
dip and be poor across much of the area Wednesday, with only the
eastern plains seeing fair to good rates. Some ventilation
improvement is forecast Thursday with winds in the lower boundary
layer turning to the south and increasing as the ridge begins an
eastward transition.

By Friday, the upper high will be centered over central Texas and
far northeast Mexico allowing the westerlies to increase across New
Mexico and the southern Rockies. Ventilation will continue an
improving trend Friday with most areas seeing good to excellent
rates. Moisture from Hurricane Seymour in the eastern Pacific will
stream over the state Friday into Saturday and result in mid and
high clouds, which may temper the extent of the warming/drying.
However, temperatures are still forecast to remain above to well
above normal. Sunday is looking windier than what the previous
forecast cycle offered, with a deepening lee side trough and the jet
stream pushing east from the Great Basin into the southern Rockies.
Needless to say, vent rates will be good to excellent areawide on

Plenty of forecast uncertainty for early next week as the 12Z ECMWF
and GFS differ on the timing and amplification of upstream upper
troughs/lows. That said, both models offer up dry solutions with
continued above normal daytime temperatures.





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