Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 281202 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
602 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SHOWERS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECTING CEILING OF BKN030 ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXTREME NORTHEAST
INCLUDING KCAO THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACTIVE AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. LINGERING CLOUD COVER
COULD DELAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HOWEVER...AFTER SOME BRIEF MID
DAY CLEARING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN THEN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE WEST...CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT EAST HIGHLANDS
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED. EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BECOME ACTIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...410 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH ENHANCED COVERAGE OVER THE
GILA REGION AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. YET ANOTHER SOUTHWARD-
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BOOST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY...THEN MUCH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE DRIER AIR
SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INVERTED TROUGH THAT APPROACHED THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY APPEARS TO HAVE MADE THE PIVOT NORTH...AND IS BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO SC/SW ZONES EARLY
THIS MORNING ON ITS FAVORED EAST FLANK. ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR FENCE LAKE/QUEMADO SEWD TO
DUNKEN IS SLOWLY FILLING IN AND LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE AXIS THAT IS LOOSELY ALIGNED FROM NW TO SE
OVER EAST-CENTRAL NM. LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS NOW DISPLACED WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.

AMONG CHALLENGES NEXT 24 HOURS  WILL BE GAUGING HOW QUICKLY AIR
MASS RECOVERY TAKES PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHEAST QUARTER...AND HOW MANY WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES TO
PLACE UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FOCUS LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING
WILL BE ON THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT MODELS GENERALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD
NEAR THE NM/AZ BORDER THOUGH LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED WATER VAPOR
LOOP THIS FEATURE MAY BE TRACKING A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN WHAT
MODELS SUGGEST. ADDITIONALLY... LOW LEVEL EAST OR SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD
IN A BROAD UPSLOPE PATTERN THAT WILL ESPECIALLY FAVOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. OVERALL...THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHOULD DEFLATE SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH THE NW-SE RIDGE AXIS
BECOMING MORE N-S ORIENTED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. STEERING FLOW
WILL BE FAR MORE ERRATIC BUT DO NOT SEE AS MUCH OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT WITH INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER WAVE NEAR THE AZ LINE.

DECIDED TO RE-POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH
AIR MASS RECOVERY MAY DELAY THINGS THERE TILL LATE. WILL INCLUDE
MOST OF THE BURN SCARS IN THE WATCH AS WELL...AND LET THE DAY
SHIFT REEVALUATE TRENDS WITH POSSIBLE EXPANSION FOR SOME AREAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. AREAS
FROM CLINES CORNERS AND ENCINO TO CORONA LOOK PRIMED...AS DOES
THE UPPER GILA AND WC MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TUE PM INTO WED
PM... RECHARGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. T-STORM COVERAGE WILL CONT TO RAMP UP...WITH LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY LIKELY. EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS SUPPORT A
VERY ACTIVE PATTERN...DESPITE A WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER HIGH
THAT BECOMES CENTERED MORE OVER ARIZONA AND GREAT BASIN.  KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. WETTING RAINS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BURN SCAR
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND
CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALLOWING THE MONSOON PLUME TO
NUDGE TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. FOR
TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAIN WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME RELATIVELY LARGE FOOTPRINTS. FAVORED AREAS
INCLUDING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. RH RECOVERIES TO BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT.

THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT THE FOCUS OF RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST...
THOUGH ALL ZONES WILL SEE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN.

NEXT BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS
ARE EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT AND GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO
REFLECT THIS. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS LOOK TO
BE FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH MOVES WEST OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY AND EXTENDED
MODELS KEEP IT THERE THOUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL...MOIST EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT ON SATURDAY.
THUS... COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ508-510>515-526>532.

&&

$$






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