Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 092306 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
406 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

Strong ridge of high pressure aloft centered over CA and NV with
northwest flow over NM. Light or terrain dominated sfc winds through
10/21Z. Nly drainage wind to develop at KSAF aft 10/10Z and persist
to around 10/18Z. VFR.


.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017...
A quiet forecast prevails for the Land of Enchantment for the next
week. Temperatures will remain above normal and precipitation
chances will continue to be near zero. Winds will remain light
except along a few back door cold fronts where some brief breezes are
possible. The cold fronts will be rather weak, and will only provide
a few degrees of cooling in most instances. Stronger breezes are
possible Friday across the eastern plains as a lee side trough


A rex blocking pattern will dominate the intermountain west for the
next several days. Extremely dry conditions will prevail over NM
which will lead to strong nighttime inversions, and hence, cold
valley temperatures. But overall, little change in temperatures are
expected over the next several days despite a couple of back door
cold fronts. The first back door cold front will arrive on Monday
morning and the next back door front looks to arrive on Wednesday
with a reinforcing frontal push on Thursday. High temperatures will
be 5 to 15 degrees above normal through at least Wednesday, but the
reinforcing front on Thursday will knock temperatures back a bit
more, though temps will still be at or above normal.

The upper level ridge will retrograde Thursday and Friday, allowing
upper level waves within northwest flow to dive southward
toward/across NM. Lee side troughing on Friday will keep
temperatures above normal, but one such wave will send another front
across the state on Saturday. Unfortunately though, precipitation
chances continue to look bleak for the foreseeable future.



Exceptionally dry high pressure inching eastward toward NM this
weekend will bring widespread minimum humidity values below 15% with
poor recoveries in the higher terrain through Wednesday. Recoveries
in valley areas of central and western NM will still be very good
under strong midslope inversions. Light winds in this regime will
favor poor ventilation for most of the area. The exception will be
eastern NM Monday and Wednesday where weak back door cold fronts
slide through and improve conditions slightly. Temperatures will
average 5 to 10 degrees above normal across the entire area, even
behind the back door cold fronts over eastern NM.

Extended guidance is still advertising the upper level ridge over
the western U.S. will retrograde into the eastern Pacific, allowing
stronger northwest flow to settle into the Rockies. Upper level
waves moving southeast toward NM in this pattern will drive colder
temperatures into the area, along with more wind and thus better
mixing. Chances for any wetting precipitation still look very low
the next 10 days.





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