Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 252128
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
328 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous storms will continue into the evening, with
more isolated activity across the northwest. Stronger storms look
to favor east central and southeastern areas. Locally heavy rain
will accompany storm activity. Expect storms to continue the rest
of the week developing over high terrain before traveling into
the valleys.

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&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently, 700mb winds have indicated surface convergence along
and east of the central mountain chain followed by copious moisture
from the southeast. Recent HRRR models are showing storm activity
developing areawide but strong to possibly severe storms will
favor areas east of the central mountain chain because of easterly
winds backing against the mountains developing upslope flow giving
storms that extra needed lift. The 12z PWAT value for ABQ was 0.7
which was less than the 0.84 from previous but matched pretty well
with the NAM12 model. With copious moisture and slow but steady
storm motions, localized heavy rainfall will lead to periods of
flash flooding in some areas throughout the evening. Most storms
will gradually taper off late tonight.

Friday...A few upper level shortwaves will pass over the northern
and western mountains which will help in storm development across
the western and central mountains. Isolated storms will again
favor the east but could get severe at times with help from return
flow from the southeast.

The Weekend...Look for an increase in scattered to numerous storms
as the upper level trough digs over the Four Corners Region
Saturday. Embedded shortwaves will trail ahead of the approaching
trough helping storms develop west to east. So far NAM12 has the
heaviest activity over the northwest and north central mountains
before spreading eastward. Storm activity will continue into
Sunday but activity looks to be strong to severe central and east
as upper level shortwaves collide with copious moisture from
return flow east of the central mountain chain. By this time,
NAM12 begins to show some kind of frontal boundary developing east
of the continental divide.

Monday through Friday...so far the Euro and GFS has the upper
trough breaking down with left over moisture being recycled.
Both models agree of a strong upper level trough over the Pacific
Northwest with high pressure building to our far east but by the
weekend, GFS has high pressure over the region with little storm
activity while the Euro has high pressure over Central Texas with
the upper level trough over the Great Basin, which we could a
return in our monsoonal pattern.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level trough will cross the northern and central Rockies
tonight and Thursday...drawing additional monsoon moisture northward
over New Mexico. An embedded short wave trough will cross northern
NM tonight, which should keep wetting showers and thunderstorms
active for much of the night.

A weak low pressure circulation aloft will form over central CA
Friday, then weaken and finally shear apart as it drifts slowly east
southeastward over AZ Saturday and Sunday.  This will allow monsoon
moisture to continue to track north and northeastward over New
Mexico. Previous model runs suggested an upper level ridge of high
pressure would then extend northeastward toward the Four Corners
from a parent high pressure system over the eastern Pacific early in
the coming weak inducing some drying over western and northern parts
of the forecast area. However, recent model runs have been weakening
the Pacific ridge in favor of a stronger upper high over the
southern plains and Mississippi River Valley. Circulation around
that high is now forecast to remain fairly robust with decent
monsoon moisture now forecast to persist over the forecast area
through the middle of the coming work week. In the absence of any
forcing from disturbances, there probably will be a downtick in
thunderstorm coverage and rainfall intensity early in the coming
week.  However, a broad upper level low is forecast to reach the NW
U.S. by Wednesday, strengthening the monsoon plume over western NM.

Due to the cloud cover and precipitation associated with the stream
of monsoon moisture, high temperatures are forecast to be near
normal to several degrees below normal for the next 7 days. Low
temperatures will generally range near normal to several degrees
above normal. Humidity recoveries will be good to excellent each
night.  Haines indices will generally vary from 2 to 4.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A short wave trough is forecast to cross northern NM tonight.
After the usual round of monsoon thunderstorms moves eastward off
the higher terrain this aftn, some mesoscale models are
forecasting clusters and maybe a few lines of showers and
thunderstorms to shift gradually eastward across the forecast area
tonight, mainly along and north of I-40. Models are not in very
good agreement on when storms will be where, so timing in TAFs is
an educated guess for now.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  56  79  54  80 /  50  30  20  30
Dulce...........................  46  74  43  76 /  50  50  20  40
Cuba............................  48  71  47  73 /  50  50  30  50
Gallup..........................  48  77  49  77 /  50  40  40  50
El Morro........................  46  72  45  74 /  60  50  40  60
Grants..........................  48  76  48  77 /  60  40  40  60
Quemado.........................  50  75  49  77 /  40  60  40  70
Glenwood........................  59  85  59  86 /  30  50  30  50
Chama...........................  43  67  41  70 /  50  60  30  60
Los Alamos......................  51  71  50  74 /  50  60  40  60
Pecos...........................  50  71  50  75 /  70  70  40  50
Cerro/Questa....................  47  71  45  72 /  60  70  30  60
Red River.......................  41  65  39  66 /  70  80  30  70
Angel Fire......................  41  67  38  69 /  70  70  30  70
Taos............................  47  73  45  74 /  50  60  30  40
Mora............................  48  69  46  71 /  70  70  40  70
Espanola........................  54  75  52  79 /  40  60  30  40
Santa Fe........................  52  71  51  74 /  60  60  30  40
Santa Fe Airport................  53  75  52  78 /  40  50  30  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  57  79  57  81 /  50  50  40  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  59  80  59  83 /  40  40  30  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  60  83  60  86 /  40  30  30  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  58  82  58  84 /  40  40  30  30
Los Lunas.......................  59  83  59  86 /  40  50  40  40
Rio Rancho......................  58  81  57  84 /  40  50  30  30
Socorro.........................  59  85  60  86 /  40  50  40  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  53  73  52  76 /  60  60  50  50
Tijeras.........................  54  76  54  79 /  50  60  40  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  77  51  79 /  40  50  40  40
Clines Corners..................  51  74  51  76 /  60  50  40  40
Gran Quivira....................  53  77  54  77 /  40  50  50  50
Carrizozo.......................  56  80  58  80 /  30  50  40  40
Ruidoso.........................  51  73  53  74 /  40  40  40  70
Capulin.........................  51  73  50  75 /  60  70  30  40
Raton...........................  51  77  49  80 /  50  70  30  30
Springer........................  52  76  51  81 /  60  70  30  40
Las Vegas.......................  50  75  49  77 /  60  70  30  40
Clayton.........................  57  79  58  83 /  50  70  30  30
Roy.............................  54  77  54  81 /  70  70  40  30
Conchas.........................  60  82  62  87 /  60  40  30  30
Santa Rosa......................  59  84  60  86 /  60  50  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  61  85  62  89 /  50  40  30  30
Clovis..........................  60  83  61  86 /  60  30  20  30
Portales........................  61  82  62  85 /  60  30  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  61  82  62  85 /  50  50  30  20
Roswell.........................  63  85  64  88 /  40  40  20  30
Picacho.........................  56  78  58  80 /  30  50  40  40
Elk.............................  53  73  55  75 /  40  60  40  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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