Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 111119 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
519 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  APART FROM A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING...A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD.
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON.  WEAK COLD FRONT THEN SHIFTS SURFACE WINDS TO NORTH THIS
EVENING AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND COOLER SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS BUT STILL REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW WILL COMMENCE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 20S AND 30S
BY THE WEEKEND. A BRISK UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT 10 TO 20
MPH OR HIGHER WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAY ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY YET
ANOTHER FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WARMER AND BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AS LEE
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS MAY
APPROACH 80 DEGREES BY THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF 20 TO 25
DEGREES CELSIUS EXPECTED. CONTINUED DRY AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PREVAILS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING AND A COOLER SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST BY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 MPH WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE PANHANDLES ON
AN UPSLOPE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST 20 FOOT WIND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH THE LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS WILL PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW...HOWEVER 20 FOOT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH BY MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME ON SATURDAY BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO EITHER REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OR THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH. NO
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. DOWNSLOPING 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY AS
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS
ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES. 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE FORECAST TO BE
SITUATED NEXT THURSDAY FROM WESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO...AND FAR WEST TEXAS. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  32  63  30  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  62  30  57  26  52 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              67  31  60  28  62 /   0   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  66  35  62  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              67  30  64  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  66  31  65  31  62 /   0   0   0   0   5
CLARENDON TX               65  35  63  30  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 67  28  60  27  63 /   0   0   0   0   5
GUYMON OK                  66  31  58  28  59 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                66  31  65  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                62  32  58  26  52 /   0   0   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   64  33  58  28  55 /   0   0   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                64  33  62  29  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              65  35  64  31  55 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/11


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