Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 241706
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1106 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail for the majority of this TAF cycle. The
main aviation concern will be a wind shift out of the north as a
slow moving cold front pushes across the Panhandles. The wind
shift has already occurred at KGUY and is expected impact KDHT
around 20Z. The wind shift will be delayed for KAMA until after
00Z. Northerly winds may be able to increase into the 12kt to
15kt range for a few hours overnight but they will quickly
diminish prior to sunrise Saturday.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
No major departures from earlier forecast.  Record high
temperatures are forecast for today.  Fire weather concerns
continue for Monday.  Slight chance of light precipitation
Tuesday night.

Models and ensembles in good agreement through Sunday night.
Thereafter significant differences emerge regarding the strength,
development, and timing of a shortwave trof with possible impacts
to the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.  Evolution of system
currently over the Gulf of Alaska is presented in a multitude of
ways by Tuesday night.  Due to lack of model consensus, we have
retained the low pops Tuesday night for basically the northern
half of the Combined Panhandles, where dynamics and any
accompanying moisture could conceivably produce precipitation.
Pops are held to no greater than 20 percent.  Light snow will be
possible across most sections, but no accumulations are expected.

Otherwise, very warm today ahead of cold front which passes late
this afternoon and this evening.  Highs on Saturday will be about
15 degrees Fahrenheit below those of today, yet still about 10
degrees above normal.  Southwest winds resume on Sunday with all
sections rising into the 70s.

Record high temperatures may be reached again on Monday as lee
trof intensifies further.

Low certainty of details thereafter, but cold front Tuesday makes
for a cooler day.  Wednesday and Thursday expected to remain
cooler still, with highs falling to near climo by Thursday.  03

Cockrell

FIRE WEATHER...
A pre-frontal surface trough will push across the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles early today with a cold front pushing south across the
Panhandles this afternoon and evening.  A surface ridge will
build in over the Panhandles tonight and Saturday.  A surface
trough will develop to the lee of the Rockies by late Saturday.
Relative humidity will fall below 20 percent over most sections
today, but 20-foot winds are expected to remain below 15 MPH.  No
elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected today
through Sunday.  Elevated fire weather conditions will be
possible across all but the far eastern parts of the Panhandles on
Monday as dry southwest winds increase.  Critical fire weather
conditions may develop on Monday across the western one-fourth of
the Panhandles as relative humidity could fall below 15 percent.
Cooler conditions following Tuesday`s cold front will preclude
elevated or critical fire weather conditions through Thursday, as
relative humidities will remain above necessary thresholds.  03

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

14/11


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