Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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912
FXUS64 KAMA 251127
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
627 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z Issuance...All sites are expected to remain VFR. Westerly
winds will pickup after 16Z with gusts up to 30kts and then should
calm after 02Z.

Beat

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 415 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Deepening surface trof will lead to increasing west and southwest
winds today, with a few locations topping out near 100 degrees
Fahrenheit.  Dryline will be displaced into western Oklahoma by
day`s end.  Models not in good agreement regarding timing of cold
frontal passage tonight and Friday.  With such poor agreement so
early in the forecast, certainty regarding later periods is less
than would be desired.

Front expected to lift northward during the afternoon on Friday,
lying northwest to southeast across the Combined Panhandles, with
very dry air remaining across the southwest, and with fairly rich
low-level moisture across the northeast.  Have introduced low
thunderstorm pops into northeast half for Friday afternoon and
evening.

Position of frontal boundary remains in question for Saturday,
but thunderstorm pops look reasonable for mainly northern sections
Saturday and Saturday night.  Sunday and Sunday night expected to
remain dry owing to front remaining south of area.

For later periods, poor agreement in models leads us to lean on
blended pops, although these seem too high on Monday.  By Tuesday
and Wednesday, GFS ensembles suggest that Gulf opens wide as next
significant upper-level system sets up over southwest CONUS.
Expect that adequate moisture will be in place to support
thunderstorms, possibly with heavy rain, by Wednesday.  03

Cockrell

FIRE WEATHER...
West and southwest winds today will increase into the 20 to 30 MPH
range area-wide, with relative humidity falling into the 10 to 20
percent range.  On Friday, similar conditions are expected across
the southwest half of the Combined Panhandles.  Lighter winds are
expected on Saturday.  Relative humidities are expected to be
much higher Sunday through Wednesday. 03

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

16/3



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