869
FXUS64 KAMA 120456
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1156 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

The risk for flooding still remains across the Panhandles for the
overnight hours. Very heavy rain may occur with any rain shower
or thunderstorms that can cause flooding.

Daily thunderstorm chances for the next 7 days expected to
potentially compound flooding concerns. A low end severe
thunderstorm risk may continue as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Latest CAM analysis continues to see present showers and
thunderstorms persist through the overnight hours. Currently,
latest runs of the HRRR and NAMnest have been accurate in seeing
storm congeal into a line late tonight with the some interaction
of the present boundary stalled to our north. This boundary
alongside a rear inflow jet is then expected to force showers and
embedded thunderstorms to slowly progress southeast across the
Panhandles clear through sunrise. While this congealment may
reduce the risk of severe weather, it does open us to a night time
flooding threat, especially with most model in agreement to high
rises in moisture over the overnight hours. If the present CAM are
correct then it is possible to seen these values jump above 1.5
inch before sunrise Saturday with some our east counties
potentially nearing 1.8 to 1.9 inch values. At this time the
recent 00Z sounding has shown that present PWAT values are already
above 1.25 inches. However, present observations are already
seeing good southeasterly flow being shown at the lower levels,
which could easily support more moisture being fed in from the
gulf an get us to the projected values. Should we get these PWAT
values and keep storm developing then it would very easy to to see
heavy to torrential rainfall across the Panhandles that could
quickly lead into night time flooding.

Of course we also need to consider the speed and movement of the
our present rear inflow jet and how it will interact with other
outflow boundaries. These interactions could potentially localize
the higher rainfall totals or potentially stall the boundary
allowing for continuous rainfall through Saturday morning.
Unfortunately models are are struggling with these interaction,
with present radar seeing much of the activity start a lot early
than initially suggested. Regardless the exit of trough to our
north Saturday afternoon should force the inflow jet further into
the area which will also bring drier air into the area as well.
While we may still see continued chances under this shift, most
guidance is expecting them to stay mostly in the southern and
eastern counties for both Saturday afternoon and Sunday. Added to
this activity will also be a slight cool down of temperatures for
the Panhandles with both Saturday and Sunday seeing highs in the
low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Progressing into a new week has model agreement hold the
Panhandles under a dual high pressure pattern in the upper-levels.
While this pattern will keep our steering flow rather weak, it
does allow for moisture to still seep in from the gulf. The
expected presence of this moisture will aid in allowing us to
opportunity to see active weather present clear past the middle of
the coming week with current guidance seeing 20 to 40% chances of
precipitation present through a majority of the afternoons. Of
course these chance will have to be watch as we get closer for
severe potential each day. However, flooding may also stay a
concern as multiple rounds of precipitation and the already high
soil moisture may see Panhandles more prone to flooding,
especially if high PWAT values stick around. Otherwise model do
expect temperatures to slightly rebound form the weekend activity
with high slowly return to upper 80s to low 90s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next
24 hours, but between now and 08z PROB30`s will address the
potential for storms at all TAF sites. Strong damaging winds in
excess of 50kts can`t be rule out at all TAF sites. Winds out of
the south in the 10-15kt range will shift more northerly after
9-12z time period.

Weber

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Very high to extremely high moisture is moving across the southern
plains including the panhandles. This will allow all rain showers
and thunderstorms to produce heavy to torrential rainfall. Such
rainfall can lead to flooding especially in areas with poor
drainage, prone to flooding, or areas the concentrate water like
Palo Duro Canyon. The heavy rainfall still most likely to occur
during the overnight hours which will make any nocturnal flooding
harder to detect.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...89