Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 051116
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
616 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
HOURS OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE BEFORE INCREASING ABOVE 10KT AROUND 15Z TO
18Z TIMEFRAME. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25KT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MIDDAY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN
TO AROUND 10KT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PANHANDLES
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKY EXPECTED.  AS RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ON FRIDAY...INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL PROMOTE FALLING
PRESSURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO SHARPEN ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE RETURN IS
CONCENTRATED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN PANHANDLES.  STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH 500 MB WINDS ABOVE 50 KT WILL HELP SHEAR
VALUES RISE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  RETREATING DRYLINE
MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS LOW-
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.  ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DRYLINE AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVE RAPIDLY
THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS.

POLAR COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOONS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLES AS DRY WINDS INCREASE WEST OF THE DRYLINE.  ON MONDAY...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE.  NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT.  03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                84  52  85  57  84 /   0   0   0   5  30
BEAVER OK                  84  54  87  59  86 /   0   0   0   5  20
BOISE CITY OK              84  50  84  53  81 /   0   0   5   5  20
BORGER TX                  86  55  86  60  86 /   0   0   0   0  30
BOYS RANCH TX              87  53  86  58  86 /   0   0   0  10  20
CANYON TX                  85  52  85  56  85 /   0   0   0  10  20
CLARENDON TX               83  52  85  58  85 /   0   0   0   0  30
DALHART TX                 85  50  85  54  82 /   0   0   0  10  20
GUYMON OK                  85  53  87  57  85 /   0   0   0   5  20
HEREFORD TX                85  53  86  57  85 /   0   0   0  10  20
LIPSCOMB TX                83  55  86  61  86 /   0   0   0   0  30
PAMPA TX                   82  52  83  58  84 /   0   0   0   0  30
SHAMROCK TX                83  54  85  59  86 /   0   0   0   0  30
WELLINGTON TX              84  55  87  60  87 /   0   0   0   0  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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