Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 070338
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1038 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

A COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
06Z WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS WILL RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 3
TO 5 MILES OR LESS AT TIMES MAINLY AT THE AMARILLO AND DALHART TAF
SITES THROUGH AROUND 22Z TUESDAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY OR SO...ALTHOUGH THE
GUYMON TAF SITE COULD POSSIBLY RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS AS WELL UNTIL
AROUND 20Z TO 23Z TUESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS EARLY WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
EAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z TUESDAY. AFTER 00Z TO 02Z
WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG MAY POSSIBLY DEVELOP.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE PANHANDLES WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE SPREADING
NORTH ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z TO 16Z TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR TO IFR DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOWERING THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES AFTER 00Z TO 04Z TUESDAY...AND THEN SHOULD BECOME VFR AGAIN
AFTER 16Z TO 18Z TUESDAY. MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE PANHANDLES
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM HRX TO JUST SOUTH
OF AMA TO PPA TO HHF AT 2 PM. THE FORCING ALONG THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. BY LATE THIS
EVENING ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING EAST FROM NEW MEXICO. WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING AS HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ALONG
WITH SOME STRONG WINDS AND MAINLY SMALL HAIL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER ON TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF LOW CLOUDS CAN HANG ON FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...SOME PLACES IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE THESE AREAS MAY REACH
INTO THE 70S. THE RECORD COLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR AMARILLO
ON TUESDAY IS 65 DEGREES.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY MAY CUT DOWN ON OUR CHANCES.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GET BETTER FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE SHEAR ALOFT INCREASES ALONG WITH THE
INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO...DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN OUR FUTURE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/06




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