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000
FXUS64 KAMA 241800
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
100 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...
Various categories will be in play for the next 24 hours as low
clouds dominate the Panhandles for the early part of the TAFs. The
main line of showers and storms that move through overnight has
exited to the east. There are some spotty showers tat have
developed across the Panhandles. Some showers can have moderate to
heavy rain and reduce visibilities and cigs with them. Disturbance
to move through tonight which will bring a chance of -TSRA to the
TAF sites, mainly after 09Z. Showers/storms look to diminish from
the 12-16Z time frame, but MVFR/IFR low clouds could impact the
TAF sites through at least 18Z tomorrow.

Weber

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 413 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Radar trends showing decrease in rainfall intensities with
satellite indicating warming cloud tops. Latest short term model
trends suggest continued decrease in overall rainfall coverage
through today. Decided, after collaboration with other surrounding
offices, to cancel the Flash Flood Watch with this forecast
package.

Closed upper low over the Great Basin region forecast today to
lift northeast across the northern Rockies and northern Plains
states by Monday night and Tuesday. As the best upper level
support lift further away from the Panhandles, expect overall
convection to decrease today and tonight. Frontal boundary
forecast to slowly push south and east into the forecast area
tonight and early Monday before finally exiting the Panhandles by
late Monday. Possible that the threat for heavy or very heavy
rainfall and the need for another Flash Flood Watch may return
Monday along and near this slow-moving frontal boundary. Another
closed upper low forecast to develop by late Tuesday or Wednesday
over the southwestern states which should lift northeast across
the Four Corners region by late this week. Upper high forecast to
build over south Texas late this week with upper ridge over the
Panhandles ahead of the closed upper low west of the forecast
area. Medium range models suggest upper trough to approach the
Panhandles late this week. Convection chances are expected to
continue through late this week with drier conditions expected
next weekend.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                77  61  71  52  64 /  40  50  70  70  40
Beaver OK                  80  63  71  54  66 /  60  70  70  60  40
Boise City OK              75  54  62  47  63 /  50  40  40  40  20
Borger TX                  79  63  72  54  66 /  50  50  70  70  40
Boys Ranch TX              79  60  71  53  65 /  30  40  60  60  30
Canyon TX                  78  60  72  52  64 /  40  50  70  70  40
Clarendon TX               78  62  72  56  66 /  70  60  70  70  60
Dalhart TX                 78  56  67  50  64 /  30  40  50  50  20
Guymon OK                  79  59  67  51  66 /  60  50  60  50  30
Hereford TX                77  60  72  52  64 /  40  40  60  60  40
Lipscomb TX                80  65  72  55  67 /  60  60  70  70  50
Pampa TX                   78  62  71  54  65 /  70  60  70  70  50
Shamrock TX                81  65  74  58  68 /  60  70  70  70  60
Wellington TX              82  65  75  58  69 /  50  60  70  70  70

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/11