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000
FXUS64 KAMA 101616 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1016 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES 0430Z-07Z, SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE N/NNE.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR EXTREMELY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS 13Z-17Z,
BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013/

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TODAY.  SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT BY 17Z OR 18Z TODAY...AND TO THEN
DIMINISH AROUND 23Z.  COLD FRONT CAUSES SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO
NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KT AROUND 04Z...05Z...AND 07Z WEDNESDAY AT
KGUY...KDHT...AND KAMA RESPECTIVELY.  NO LOW CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION
..OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.  VFR
FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE THEME FOR THIS
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A FEW COLD FRONTS WILL SLIP THROUGH BRINGING
SOME OCCASIONAL BRIEF COOLING BUT NOTHING TO THE DEGREE THAT WE/VE
SEEN LATELY.

TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. WIND SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN 10 MPH BUT THIS HAS
STILL BEEN ENOUGH TO DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...TEMPS WILL WARM UP PRETTY NICELY
TODAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
AND A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 40S AND 50S. A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEND THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ABSENT FOR ANY PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS FRONT WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S ON
WEDNESDAY.

THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER. A LEE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY BENEATH A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN IN
RESPONSE...WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL OPEN UP AND PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE ANY LIGHT
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE PANHANDLES...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. A COUPLE OF
MODELS /ECMWF AND CMC GEM/ STILL TRY TO CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST TX
PANHANDLE WITH SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE PRECIP FROM 24 HOURS AGO. EVEN IF THE SOUTHEAST
CWA WERE TO BE CLIPPED BY ANY OF THIS LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING...ANY IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL
AS LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR FREEZING...TEMPS
WILL BE FAIRLY WARM LEADING UP TO THIS TIME PERIOD...AND ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT FOR OUR AREA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...KNOCKING HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 40S ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
HOLDING ANY PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
ARRIVE TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH TODAY
AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...LATEST FUEL DATA STILL
SHOWS THAT FUEL MOISTURE IS RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL AND ERC VALUES BELOW
NORMAL...SO NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

KS/JJ