Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 180444
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1044 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southerly winds to prevail throughout the
06Z TAF cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 253 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Southerly to southwesterly surface flow has returned to the
Panhandles region as temperatures this afternoon has rebounded
well into the 40s. Some cool areas with upper 30s to near 40
remain for parts of the eastern Panhandles, in particular for
areas off the Caprock taking a little longer to drain out the cold
air to the east. Going forward into the first half of the
weekend, temperatures across the region will warm up to well above
average.

Mid level flow will shift from northwesterly to more of a zonal
flow heading toward the end of the week in-conjunction with a 700
hPa ridge building northeast into the Panhandles and a surface
trough developing across eastern NM will generate southwesterly
winds. This should warm up the region to well above average by
Friday and Saturday with high temperatures expected to be well
into the 70s. Although winds will back off a bit by Saturday, warm
SW flow along with low RH values may set the stage for elevated
fire weather conditions Friday and Saturday.

As the region warms up Saturday with the deepening 500 hPa SW
flow, the main trough axis with developing upper level low
over SE Colorado by Sunday morning will bring our only chance of
precipitation to parts of the northern Panhandles for this
forecast period. Latest 17/12Z model and probabilistic data slows
down the system as it moves east across Kansas Sunday night bring
a slight chance of precipitation across the Oklahoma and far
norther Texas Panhandle during the day on Sunday with some wrap
around moisture. Unfortunately for the rest of the Texas
Panhandle, the system will be too far north to bring any
significant chances of precipitation to the area. A cold front on
the backside of the low pressure system will move south across the
region during the day on Sunday dropping high temps to range from
the 40s in the NW Panhandles to mid/upper 50s in the SE TX
Panhandle.

Following the cold front on Sunday, zonal mid level flow will keep
temperatures near average throughout the remainder of the
forecast period. Unfortunately, our chances of precipitation going
towards the end of the forecast period remain near zero percent.

Meccariello

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Friday across most
of the region along with Saturday across parts of the western
Panhandles. 20 ft. winds of 15 kts to near 20 kts in-conjunction
with min RH values between 10-19% will give elevated conditions
to most of the region. Elevated fire weather conditions will then
be confined to parts of the far western TX Panhandle for Saturday
with 20 ft. winds around 15 kts along with min RH values around
15%.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

21/14


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