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000
FXUS64 KAMA 241136
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE PROGGED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY THE SAME AS SEEN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. BROAD SW FLOW TO PERSIST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY EDGES OFF TO THE EAST. THE SFC DRYLINE WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUSING BOUNDARY FOR TSTM INITIATION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FOLLOWED BY
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS SECONDARY MECHANISMS. IT APPEARS TSTM
COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE ISOLD DURING THE COMING DAYS AND
INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THE MID LEVEL WARM LAYER...ALSO
KNOWN AS A CAPPING INVERSION...CAN BE BREACHED. THAT SAID...USED
AREAL QUALIFIER WORDING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLD TO SCT
COVERAGE. THEN SLGT CHC POPS SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLGT
CHC POPS ROUGHLY ERN HALF OF FCST AREA MON THRU TUE NIGHT. IF STORMS
CAN MANAGE TO FORM...A FEW MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON UA PATTERN MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH RESPECT TO HOW THE VIGOROUS WRN US TROF EJECTS. 00Z ECMWF
IS A BIT SLOWER AND HAS A MORE CLOSED OFF SOLUTION...AND ALSO OFFERS
MORE IN WAY OF PRECIP FOR WED AND WED NIGHT. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
DRIER OVERALL. HOWEVER...06Z GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT TOWARDS 00Z ECMWF.
DECIDED ON RETAINING SLGT CHC POPS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT AREAWIDE AS
A COMPROMISE THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. MODELS DO PUSH THIS FEATURE EAST
OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND HAVE SUGESTED A DRIER SCENARIO FOR
THAT DAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                82  60  85  61  90 /  30  20  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                  81  62  88  63  93 /  30  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              84  58  87  57  91 /  30  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  83  64  87  65  91 /  30  20  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              84  60  87  59  92 /  30  20  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  83  60  85  60  90 /  30  20  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               82  62  85  64  90 /  30  20  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 84  59  87  57  92 /  30  20  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  83  62  89  61  93 /  30  20  20  20  20
HEREFORD TX                84  59  85  59  90 /  30  20  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                81  62  85  63  91 /  30  20  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   82  61  86  63  90 /  30  20  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                82  64  85  64  90 /  30  20  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              83  64  85  65  90 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$