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000
FXUS64 KAMA 232314
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
614 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms can be expected across
the Panhandles this evening, however low confidence on timing and
location and whether any showers or storms will affect any of the
three TAF sites. Decided to leave out a TEMPO group for now and
instead left in VCTS at the Amarillo TAF site where a little
better chance exists amongst the three TAF sites that could be
affected. Otherwise, light east and southeast winds will prevail
around 5 to 10 knots or less.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 421 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Noteworthy items for this forecast package are limited with no real
high impact weather. There is of course several chances for
thunderstorms with Tuesday being the only real dry period. Some
storms could be strong, but severe weather does not look likely over
the next several days. In the near term, Thursday could possibly see
some strong to marginally severe storms. Outside of this,
temperatures will be right around normal for this time of year.

Satellite trend this afternoon has shown a CU field developing over
parts of the forecast area. Forcing is very weak with limited shear
and instability. Any thunderstorms that form should be below severe
criteria. Storms will also be slow movers which could lead to
possible localized moderate to heavy rainfall in some areas. The
HRRR has been consistently hinting at convection this afternoon
across the Texas Panhandle. Showers are forming east of Amarillo
and are anticipated to start filling in more across the forecast
area, mainly southern parts of the Texas Panhandle.

Tuesday in the only dry period--outside of small chances to the
northwest--during this entire forecast package. Otherwise,
thunderstorms are possible each day, but little to no shear will
be our main limiting factor, especially during the afternoon
hours. We could see changes in the future forecast packages, but
at this time severe weather does not look favorable next week.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

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