Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 271022
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
522 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS MORNING...SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR
NRN ZONES AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH MORNING LOW POPS OVER THAT
AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. ADDITIONAL ISOLD
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS FAR NWRN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AROUND THE WRN AND NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. 20 POPS SEEM PLAUSIBLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SEWD ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS TUE NIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE POST
FRONTAL MOIST ATMOSPHERE. POPS THEN FALL TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE
BOARD ON FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FCST TO REORIENT ITSELF
BACK TO THE W TO AROUND THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE...THE FCST AREA
WOULD BE UNDER SOME SEMBLANCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS USUALLY
FAVORABLE FOR STEERING STORMS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SERN CO AND NERN NM. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON WHETHER OR NOT
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP IN THIS FLOW PATTERN SO HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY NIGHT
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO
SEE POPS EVENTUALY BEING ADDED IF THIS NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN EVOLVES
AS PROGGED.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                96  71  96  69  87 /   5   5  10  20  30
BEAVER OK                 100  73  98  70  86 /  10   5  20  40  30
BOISE CITY OK              98  67  94  64  80 /  10  20  20  40  40
BORGER TX                  99  74  97  70  88 /   5   5  20  30  30
BOYS RANCH TX              98  70  96  68  87 /   5   5  20  30  30
CANYON TX                  96  70  95  68  87 /   5   5  10  20  30
CLARENDON TX               98  72  97  71  91 /   5   5   5  10  20
DALHART TX                101  67  96  66  83 /  10  10  20  40  40
GUYMON OK                 100  72  97  68  85 /  10   5  20  40  40
HEREFORD TX                95  69  94  67  87 /   5   5  10  20  30
LIPSCOMB TX                99  73  98  70  89 /  10   5  10  20  30
PAMPA TX                   97  71  95  69  89 /   5   5  10  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                99  73  98  71  93 /   0   0   5  10  20
WELLINGTON TX             100  74  99  73  95 /   0   0   5  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







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