Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 191759

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1159 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

For the 18z TAFs...
Frontal boundary through northern terminals and is knocking on the
door just north of AMA.  Tough call on how much more southward
progress it will make.  At this point, feel that deep southwest
winds currently sampled by KAMA 88D will continue to keep front
north of AMA.  Will monitor and update if necessary.

At northern terminals, expect surface winds to trend to east and
southeast this afternoon, with DHT having the best chance for
frontal boundary to pass, bringing surface winds back to
southwest.  GUY expected to keep easterly component to surface
winds, remaining north of boundary.  MVFR ceilings at GUY are
forecast to dissipate late this afternoon.

Otherwise, VFR conditions expected at all terminals.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 945 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/

Have made some major changes to graphical forecasts for today.
Cold front which entered northern sections continues to slowly
advance southward, with widespread stratocumulus ceilings noted.
Have lowered temperatures significantly across northern sections.
Have also adjusted winds, clouds, dewpoints and related fields.
Updated text products will be issued shortly.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 621 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/

Cold front pushing south from Kansas and is currently through the
Oklahoma Panhandle. Front will slowly push south and stall later
this morning, then should retreat northward. This will knock back
the highs a bit, mainly for the northeast Panhandles. Still expect
that highs will get to the 60s across the OK and northern TX
Panhandle, with 70s across the central and southern TX Panhandle.

No changes made to the current Fire Weather Products.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 516 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/

A southward moving cold front has already moved into the KGUY
terminal to start off the 12Z TAF cycle. Low clouds behind the
front are expected to bring flight categories down to IFR until
noon today. This front should stall just northeast of KDHT and
well north of KAMA to keep these terminals VFR.

Northerly winds at KGUY will slowly become southeasterly by noon
and remain light into the overnight hours. KAMA and KDHT will see
increasing winds throughout the day as we deeply mix. Wind gusts
up to 35kt won`t be out of the question. After sunset the gust
component should drop out as sustained winds slowly diminish.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 435 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/

Upper level trough continues to dive down across the western CONUS
providing warm southwest flow out ahead of it for the Panhandles.
Lately the cold front that was expected to stay north of the OK
Panhandle, has indicated that it may push far enough south, even
into portions of the Texas Panhandle. That will play havoc with
the afternoon highs. Right now continue to trend on the milder
side, but may have to knock the temperatures back 5 to 10 degrees
across the north to account for the fast moving front.

The cold front is still expected to retreat north later this
afternoon to early evening, stalling out over central Kansas
tonight. Winds will be strong this afternoon, as a typical lee
side surface trough will set up across southeast CO. This will
create some Fire Weather issues (See Fire Weather Discussion).

The cold front that stalls out over Kansas tonight is expected to
return to the Panhandles tomorrow afternoon and evening. Right now
it`s expected to make it`s way across the OK Panhandle around
noon. The tricky part is that models are suggesting the front will
stall again across the Panhandles, and may not be completely
through until sometime after midnight. Again, this plays havoc
with the high temperatures for Tuesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday will be quite chilly as the cold air
will linger over the Panhandles. Highs expected to be in the 30s
on Wednesday, with the eastern Panhandles only recovering into the
40s by Thursday. Warm air is expected to reach the western
Panhandles by late Thursday afternoon, and will allow for
temperatures to reach the lower 50s. However, winds will be around
10 mph and that could make it feel like it`s still in the 40s.

Another impulse is expected to travel down the upper level trough
over the western CONUS and as the shortwave moves across the
Panhandles Thursday evening there will be a chance for
precipitation, but mainly for the eastern Panhandles. Right now it
looks like the precipitation will be in the form of just rain.
Although the surface wetbulb suggests that the temperatures may be
slightly below freezing for these areas, the soundings indicate
that there will be a significant warm nose, from 500 ft to about
8,000 ft above ground level, with temperatures reaching almost 6
Celsius. The likely hood of that the water droplets will be
supercooled and ready to freeze under that strong of a warm nose
is minimal. Therefore have kept the precipitation chances as just
rain. Will keep an eye on this system, and if colder temperatures
come in with the precipitation,then we may have to change the
forecasts to some form of winter precipitation.

Friday and through the weekend. The upper level trough that
stalled over CA, will finally start to progress east, enhancing
warm southwest flow to the area on Friday. This will bring highs
back into the 60s. The trough will quickly eject out of the four
corners region and across the northern Panhandles on Saturday, but
it looks to dry slot the area and thusly have continued with a
dry forecast. A cold front is expected Saturday afternoon, but
will quickly be replaced by a warm westerly flow on Sunday.
Conditions may be dry enough for elevated conditions across the
southwest Panhandles on Sunday, if the winds pick up enough.


Elevated to critical Fire Weather conditions expected today as strong
southwest winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph are expected
across the western Panhandles. Breezy winds 15 to 20 mph are expected
across the central and easter Panhandles. Even though relative
humidity values are in the low to mid 20 percent range, RFTI`s are
coming in at 3 to 4 and ERC`s are near to above the 70th percentile,
especially across the southwest. This warrants a Red Flag Warning
based on the experimental criteria. All other areas except for
Beaver County Oklahoma (RFTI 0 nothing issued) have RFTI`s of 1 or 2,
and only justifies a Fire Danger Statement.

Conditions may be dry enough for elevated conditions across the
southwest Panhandles on Sunday, if the winds pick up enough.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...

OK...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron.



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