Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 092306

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
506 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

VFR conditions expected throughout the 00Z TAF period. Winds are
light and variable and will become more westerly toward 06Z Sunday
with a shift to northwesterly around 18Z Sunday with sustained
winds of 5-10 kts under mostly clear skies.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 218 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017/


Not a whole lot to talk about with this forecast package which seems
to be the trend lately. Anyone looking for precipitation will be
unhappy with the next 7 days. With 125 years of data, the all time
record for Amarillo shows the longest stretch without measurable
(0.01 or more) is 75 days. Today will mark 57 days. This record
seems within grasp for the Amarillo area given the lackluster
forecast ahead.

Items worth discussing will be winds, dry conditions, and favorable
fuels in place across the Panhandles for fire weather potential on
Monday. A cold front will pass through the region Monday, and by the
afternoon the winds will be from the north around 20 mph. Outside of
Monday, the rest of the forecast is somewhat quiet and not much to
speak about concerning impacts to the local area. It does look like
next week will be mostly above normal for highs with daily highs in
the mid 50s to mid/upper 60s. Unless we get a change in the upper
level pattern, I do not see any chance for precipitation in the near
future. This would take us to the end of December. If we do not see
any measurable precipitation by December 28th we will break the
record of 75 days without measurable precipitation marking 76 days
by then.



Elevated fire weather concerns are possible this afternoon for the
western two thirds of the Panhandles for breezy winds and low
relative humidities.

Critical fire weather conditions will arise on Monday, albeit
minimal as far as thresholds go for sustained wind speeds. A cold
front will pass through the region on Monday afternoon with wind
speeds from the north at 20 mph and gusts closer to 30 mph.
Relative humidities will be in the teens, ranging at its lowest
point from 10 to 15 percent during peak heating Monday afternoon.
These conditions will meet criteria for fire weather conditions,
especially across the northern parts of the forecast area. Or in
other words, the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern parts of the
Texas Panhandle. The rest of the area will at least experience
elevated fire weather concerns if not critical.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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