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000
FXUS64 KAMA 210438
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1138 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR OR AT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE
BACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LATEST HRRR
FORECASTING THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH AND
WEST TOWARD THE GUYMON TAF SITE BY 07Z TO 09Z MONDAY. IFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT BOTH THE AMARILLO AND GUYMON TAF SITES
BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z MONDAY. THE HRRR SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO EAST AWAY FROM BOTH TAF SITES AROUND 10Z TO
12Z MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST. THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NOT EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE DALHART
TAF SITE WHERE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AMARILLO AND GUYMON TAF
SITES BY 10Z TO 12Z MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD BECOME EAST AND SOUTHEAST 5
TO 15 KNOTS AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES THROUGH 10Z TO 12Z
MONDAY...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH AFTER 20Z MONDAY
5 TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS. AT THE DALHART TAF SITE...WINDS WILL REMAIN
WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 10Z TO 12Z MONDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...THEN VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AFTER
20Z MONDAY 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF MOST OF THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS
EVENING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TX PANHANDLE
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MAY AFFECT THE THREE TAF
SITES THROUGH 01Z TO 02Z MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTH BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF SITES AROUND 08Z TO 12Z
MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY 14Z TO 15Z MONDAY.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN DIMINISHING TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 20Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  HAVE INCREASED
POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...
CLOSER TO PROXIMITY OF INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK...IN REGION
OF GREATER INSTABILITY.  POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE BEEN TRIMMED TO
INCLUDE ONLY FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...AHEAD OF DEPARTING VORTICITY
MAXIMUM.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND MILD.  LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT MID-LEVEL TROF.  WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND SPREAD A BIT FARTHER WEST DUE TO EXPECTED
POSITION OF DRYLINE.  WEDNESDAY EVENING POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN
EASTERN SECTIONS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY...AND HAVE
ALSO BEEN SPREAD A BIT FARTHER WEST.

NO POPS IN REMAINDER OF FORECAST.  NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLES.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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