Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 212152
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
352 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...A shortwave ridge present over the combined
Panhandles today will start to give way to an approaching weather
system on Wednesday and Thursday. A lee side trough will
strengthen through the day on Wednesday, with gusty southwest
winds around 20 to 30 MPH with higher gusts and near record to
record high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. See climate
section below for details on high temperature records. Leeside
cyclogenesis will occur Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, which
will help start to pull down cooler air on the west side of this
system. However, before the cooler air arrives, another warm, dry
and windy day is possible Thursday afternoon with significant fire
weather potential outlined in the fire weather discussion below.
A cold front may push through the region late Thursday into
Friday, which should knock daytime highs back to the mid 40s
northwest to upper 50s southeast. Zonal flow will persist through
the weekend, with gradual height rises resulting in a warming
trend through the weekend. Another disturbance will pass through
the region Monday and Tuesday, which will once again cause a lee
side trough (and possible dryline) to develop over the region by
then. Unfortunately, despite all of these weather systems passing
the region, no precipitation is forecasted through next Tuesday.

Bieda

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak surface trough has developed in eastern New Mexico this
afternoon, with southerly winds around 10 MPH. The lack of
precipitation from our prior system last weekend, coupled with
drier conditions in it`s wake, has resulted in relative humidity
values this afternoon around 10 to 15 percent. Elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions is possible Wednesday afternoon,
as increased southwesterly downsloping winds off the Rockies
results in 20 foot winds around 15 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35
MPH. Compressional warming from downsloping winds will bring near
record to record warm temperatures and relative humidity values
around 10 to 20 percent.

Our attention remains focused on the potential for critical to
very critical fire weather conditions on Thursday, as a weather
disturbance passes to the north of the region. A 500mb
west to southwest jet streak of 70 kts will be draped across the
New Mexico Rockies and across the combined Panhandles. This will
aid in strengthening a lee side trough, which will push through
the region through the afternoon on Thursday. Model guidance has
come into further agreement in showing a 50 to 60 kt H7 low level
jet, with corresponding thermal ridge axis just east of the
combined Panhandles. Aloft, a 90 to 100 kt H3 jet streak will aid
in promoting diffluent flow across the central and eastern
combined Panhandles. All told, Thursday looks to be a potentially
active fire weather day that may support fast moving, explosive
fire growth. The limiting factor to all these conditions could
depend on the passage of a cold front. Based on present guidance,
the arrival of this frontal boundary will be around sunset in the
northern Panhandles and around 9 PM to midnight for the southern
Panhandles. We will continue to closely monitor the developing
situation Thursday.

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Friday afternoon
in the wake of Thursday`s disturbance, as northwesterly 20 foot
winds around 10 to 20 MPH and RH values in the teens occur across
the southwestern Texas Panhandle. Looking into next week, elevated
fire weather conditions may once again occur on Monday and Tuesday
as a potential dryline sets up in the region due to another
passing disturbance.

Bieda

&&

.CLIMATE...Record high temperatures will be possible Wednesday
afternoon at all three of our climatological stations:

                   Forecast High               Record High
Amarillo:              83                      84 set in 1996
Borger:                83                      82 set in 1996
Dalhart:               82                      77 set in 2012

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                44  83  48  73  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  41  85  48  75  29 /   0   0  10   0   0
Boise City OK              43  78  43  67  26 /   0   0   5   0   0
Borger TX                  43  84  51  75  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              42  84  47  72  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  43  82  46  74  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               46  84  50  79  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 42  82  44  70  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  43  84  46  72  28 /   0   0   5   0   0
Hereford TX                43  84  46  73  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                43  85  49  78  33 /   0   0   5   0   0
Pampa TX                   45  84  50  75  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                45  85  49  80  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              45  85  49  82  38 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
     Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...
     Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...
     Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Roberts...
     Sherman...Wheeler.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

2/98



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