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000
FXUS64 KAMA 280819
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
319 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST AND
IT WILL SET UP SHOP OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. AND
THERE IS WHERE IT WILL SIT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST.
AGAIN...BELIEVE THAT THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE EAST OF THIS
HIGH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND INTERACT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS.

TODAY THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE WITH THE CURRENT MCS WHICH IS OVER OUR NORTHWEST CWA. THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON JUST HOW FAR EAST THIS MCS MAKES IT BEFORE IT FALLS
APART. THE NAM MODEL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING THIS MCS TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY. SOME OTHER HIGH RES MODELS
ALSO SUPPORT THE NAM SOLUTION. THE GFS WEAKENS THIS MCS MUCH QUICKER
AND IT DOES NOT BRING IT AS FAR EAST. IF ONE IS TO BELIEVE THE NAM
SOLUTION...THEN THERE COULD BE A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF YOU BELIEVE THE
GFS SOLUTION...THEN CONVECTION REGENERATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER MCS HEADS THIS WAY THIS EVENING. WE ARE
LEANING TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AS IT MAY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO RECOVER
BEFORE NEW CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP.  AND EVEN IF IT DOES DEVELOP...
IT MAY START OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS AND WITH THE WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL IT REACHES OUR
NORTHWEST CWA. ALSO AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ON HOW INTENSE THE
CONVECTION WILL BE IF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
ARE STABILIZED DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST CWA...SO THIS MAY BE ANOTHER PERIOD WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN CAN BE BETTER FORECAST.

THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY BY THIS WEEKEND...
WHICH COULD POSSIBLY KEEP ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. NOT
SURE RIGHT NOW IF THIS WILL BE THE CASE...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT
FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW NONETHELESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                82  64  83  64  83 /  30  50  40  50  40
BEAVER OK                  87  65  84  66  71 /  40  50  40  70  70
BOISE CITY OK              81  63  85  60  77 /  50  50  50  60  50
BORGER TX                  87  69  83  65  80 /  40  50  40  50  40
BOYS RANCH TX              84  67  89  68  84 /  40  50  40  50  40
CANYON TX                  82  64  86  65  86 /  30  50  40  40  30
CLARENDON TX               83  66  81  63  86 /  50  50  40  40  40
DALHART TX                 82  62  87  64  78 /  40  50  50  50  40
GUYMON OK                  82  66  83  62  74 /  60  50  50  70  60
HEREFORD TX                84  64  87  65  83 /  30  50  40  30  30
LIPSCOMB TX                86  65  82  65  73 /  40  40  40  70  70
PAMPA TX                   82  64  80  62  80 /  50  50  40  60  40
SHAMROCK TX                87  65  80  63  81 /  50  40  30  50  50
WELLINGTON TX              88  66  83  63  87 /  50  40  30  50  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15