Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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984
FXUS64 KAMA 312042
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
342 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.Discussion...
Easterly upslope flow expected to continue tonight and Wednesday.
While this will keep moisture supplied, weak flow from the surface to
500 mb is not situated to generate significant shear, warm air
advection, or strong storm base inflow.

Thus, we expect clouds, showers and thunderstorms tonight and
Wednesday, but aforementioned factors have eased concerns for
organized severe thunderstorms.  Slow movement of thunderstorms will
cause some storms to be heavy rain producers.  Lack of consensus
between short-term high-resolution models leads us to not make many
changes to going forecast, apart from tweaking pops in the direction
of new blended guidance, and adjusting border pops toward agreement
with neighbors.

Pops still erode from north and northwest Wednesday night through
Thursday, as mid-level closed low moves downstate, with dry weather
forecast for most periods following.  Have accepted blended pops`
idea of slight chance thunderstorms in western sections Monday night,
by which time next system may tap newly-arrived low-level moisture.

Cockrell

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                56  71  55  75  54 /  70  50  50  20   5
Beaver OK                  56  76  55  78  53 /  40  30  20  10   0
Boise City OK              51  69  51  76  51 /  60  40  20   5   5
Borger TX                  60  74  59  77  59 /  60  40  40  20   5
Boys Ranch TX              55  73  54  78  53 /  70  50  50  10   5
Canyon TX                  56  73  55  76  54 /  70  50  50  20   5
Clarendon TX               59  73  58  74  57 /  80  50  50  30  10
Dalhart TX                 55  72  54  77  53 /  60  40  30  10   5
Guymon OK                  56  74  55  77  54 /  50  30  10  10   5
Hereford TX                56  74  55  77  54 /  70  50  50  20   5
Lipscomb TX                59  74  57  76  56 /  40  30  30  20   5
Pampa TX                   59  73  58  75  57 /  60  40  50  20   5
Shamrock TX                60  74  59  76  58 /  60  60  50  40   5
Wellington TX              61  75  60  77  59 /  70  60  50  30  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/03



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