


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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751 FXUS64 KAMA 030541 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1241 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1031 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 -Chances of showers and thunderstorms remain present for Wednesday and Thursday with each day seeing roughly 20% to 40% chance. Any storm could produce very heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding. -A brief break from showers and thunderstorms looks possible for the Western Panhandles for the upcoming holiday and cloud see increasing temperatures with highs returning to the lower 90s. -More chances for showers and thunderstorms return for the holiday weekend as a secondary system pushes in Saturday and Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1031 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Moisture continues to move into the panhandles from the south this morning. This is currently causing a large low to mid level cloud shield across much of the panhandles that will persist through the day. Within this cloud a few isolated rain showers are occurring with low amount of rainfall accumulations. During the afternoon daytime heating will provide for marginal instability with a few areas getting close to reaching convective temperature. This will allow for a low chance that stronger surface based rain showers and thunderstorms form during this time. Any storm that does manage to form will have high moisture to tap into which will allow it to produce heavy rainfall. These storms will also have weak steering motion which will allow for long residence times in a given spot. This means that there is a low chance for flooding in the TX panhandle from any of the rain shower or thunderstorm that manages to form. With all the ample moisture and cloud cover present today will have a high chance of remaining cool and cloudy with highs in the 70s to the 80s. Thursday has a high chance of the high pressure over the region retreating enough to allow for a broad weather system to move into the panhandles. This weather system will provide a slight increase in the instability over the panhandles which in turn make it slightly more likely for rain showers and thunderstorm to occur. However the overall chance of any rain shower or thunderstorm occurring will remain at low for Thursday. As there will still be high, near tropical levels, of moisture across the panhandles any rain shower or thunderstorm that manages to form on Thursday will be capable of producing heavy rainfall and flooding. With the passage of a weather system the winds across the panhandles will see an increase with southerly gusty winds for the daytime hour. An expected decrease in cloud cover for Thursday will allow for a little higher heat with high climbing solidly into the 80s across the panhandles. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1031 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 The weekend and into early next week has a moderate to high chance of remaining and active period for weather across the panhandles. During the weekend this will be from the retreating of the high pressure eastward which will allow for a couple of broad weather system to move across the panhandles. These weather system bring an increase in the instability which will allow for rain showers and thunderstorm to form during the afternoon and evening. High moisture will have a moderate to high chance of remaining across the panhandle during this time which will continue to allow for heavy rainfall and flood from any of the storms. Then for next week the pattern shifts with a four corners high setting up across the desert southwest. This will bring a northwest flow across the southern plains which will allow for more broad weather system to push into the panhandles. This biggest shift for these later weather system is that the high moisture currently over the southern plain will have a moderate chance of retreating leading to overall slightly drier conditions. This makes it less likely for storms during the later portions of the week to produce heavy rainfall and flooding. This doesn`t mean a zero chance just a reduced chance. The weekend and into next week will have a moderate to high chance of being hot as it will broadly remain under high pressure even if the high pressure itself changes from one to another. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 MVFR ceilings are expected to advance into AMA from the south early this morning. Ceilings may even boarder near IFR flight rules as they continue to drop, but we do not expected them to prevail as such for any meaningful amount of time. Winds will pick up speed and all sites and stay breezy from the south through the afternoon and evening today. Thunderstorms are possible at AMA this afternoon and could last into the night. Meanwhile, a different wave of thunderstorms are forecast to impact DHT much later in the 06Z TAF period. GUY should stay clear during this timeframe, since chances of thunderstorms impacting the TAF site are much lower than at AMA and DHT. Rangel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...55