Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
000
FXUS64 KAMA 181053 AAA
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
553 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Winds will remain light and variable for much of the day and then
they will tend to become more southerly by sunset as high pressure
moves off to our east. Southwest winds will pick up into the 15 to
25 mph range with higher gusts on Tuesday as a new lee-side surface
trough develops. No precipitation is expected through Tuesday night
as the upper low and is associated moisture stays west of the
Panhandles. High temperatures will warm some 10 to 15 degrees on
Tuesday over today given the downslope winds.
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
A shortwave trough should be just west of the Panhandles to start
this long-term period. A surface trough should develop in the
afternoon hours, most likely set up somewhere in the central to
eastern combined Panhandles. The mid-levels of the troposphere
should be fairly moist for this time of year with PWATs above the
climatological 90th percentile, and with forcing for ascent arriving
in the afternoon hours, a chance for showers and thunderstorms will
exist primarily for the central to eastern combined Panhandles. Dew
points in the upper-40s combined with steep lapse rates throughout
the troposphere may allow for around 500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE to
develop in the eastern combined Panhandles. That, combined with an
inverted-V signature below the moist layer, suggests the potential
for strong to severe wind gusts. Winds aloft will not be terribly
impressive, thus any storm that can develop would move fairly
slow... perhaps around 10-20 kts. While this does not appear to be a
widespread soaking rain or an event that would erase the drought or
end the fire season, some isolated/lucky areas may receive decent
rain totals due to the seasonably moist environment and slow storm
motion. A weak cold front moves through Wednesday night but
temperatures rebound to the upper-60s to mid-70s on Thursday.
Winds turn southerly Friday as heights aloft rise, making for
another warm and dry day Friday. Deterministic models and the
ensembles generally agree that another trough will move over the
Western US Saturday, and beginning to impact the Panhandles Sunday.
A wide range of solutions remain possible with respect to the type
of weather that impacts the Panhandles Sunday and Monday, but the
more probable scenario at this time looks to be windy and dry
conditions. This would mean that the potential return of fire
weather may be less than a week away.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Skies are expected to remain VFR. Light and variable winds today
will become southerly around 10 knots tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 61 37 69 42 / 0 0 0 10
Beaver OK 60 36 75 38 / 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 59 34 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
Borger TX 64 40 74 44 / 0 0 0 10
Boys Ranch TX 63 34 71 39 / 0 0 0 10
Canyon TX 62 36 69 40 / 0 0 0 10
Clarendon TX 60 38 70 43 / 0 0 0 10
Dalhart TX 60 31 68 35 / 0 0 0 10
Guymon OK 60 34 72 36 / 0 0 0 0
Hereford TX 62 33 68 39 / 0 0 0 10
Lipscomb TX 60 37 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
Pampa TX 60 39 71 44 / 0 0 0 10
Shamrock TX 60 36 72 42 / 0 0 0 10
Wellington TX 59 35 71 42 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...15