Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 281801
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
101 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/

COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED FASTER THAN INDICATED EARLIER WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AT KDHT AND KGUY. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
NEAR KDHT AND KGUY. BOUNDARY HAS SLOWED AND SHOULD FOCUS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THOUGHT EARLIER AND THESE
COULD IMPACT KAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH
THE BOUNDARY NEAR KAMA WINDS MAY BE VARIABLE AND LIGHT BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT. DESPITE DRIER LOW LEVELS...WEAK
MOIST ADVECTION ATOP THE BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MOVING EAST TOWARD
KDHT AND KGUY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN POOR MODEL
PERFORMANCE BUT HAVE COVERED THIS WITH A PROB30 FOR THUNDER AT THIS
TIME.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS MONTANA THIS MORNING...AND
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD.  A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH MOST OF
COLORADO...AND WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.
PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK DECENT BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT.  MOIST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT IN SURFACE BASED MOISTURE...AND MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS SETUP
SHOP FURTHER WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES AS THE
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED. HAVE SLOWED PROGRESS OF THE FRONT BY JUST A FEW
HOURS FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...RESULTING IN A DELAY TO MID-LATE
AFTERNOON TO BEGIN PRECIP CHANCES. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAIN OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND MOST OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...THOUGH SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS TO HOW FAR THE SOUTH
PROGRESSES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
ASSISTING SOMEWHAT IN THE FRONT`S PROGRESS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
CANADA. HOWEVER...AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...RESULTANT COLD POOL MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROGRESS THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS WELL.  PRIMARY
HAZARD WILL AGAIN BE LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN.  PWAT VALUES
ARE NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS SYSTEMS OF LATE...RANGING FROM 1.25 TO
1.75 INCHES...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO EXPECT WIDESPREAD TOTALS
OF HALF INCH OR GREATER ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED DURING CONVECTIVE EVENTS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST PROBABLE THREAT FROM
INDIVIDUAL STORMS...THOUGH SHEAR VALUES REMAIN WEAK OVER ALL BUT THE
FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PANHANDLES
REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND SUBTLE DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW COULD POSSIBLY REMAIN ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES INTO WEDNESDAY AND SUPPORT CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES. WHILE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT DOES NOT HAVE AN
APPRECIABLE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACCOMPANYING IT...LINGERING CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES LOWER SO
HAVE CONTINUED TREND FOR LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AND
REBOUNDING SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY...RENEWING CHANCES FOR POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.  THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE REMAIN THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

CE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS AS THE RIDGE MOVES BACK WESTWARD. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AND CREATE CHANCES FOR RAIN EVERY DAY IN THE
EXTENDED. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE KEPT FROM REACHING INTO THE UPPER
90S DUE TO THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER.

MB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15




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