Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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566
FXUS64 KAMA 172235
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
435 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Fairly tranquil weather with above normal temperatures will
continue through Saturday over the fcst area as upper level
ridging prevails in advance of the next upper level low pressure
system slated for late this weekend.

All numerical weather models have trended much drier with the
storm system progged to impact the OK and TX Panhandles on Sunday.
Have decided to trend in that direction as well by reducing pops
10 to 20 percent across the wrn and cntrl zones, with about a 5 to
10 percent reduction in pop values in ern zones with overall
highest pops in the sern TX Panhandle. In addition, all models
have trended faster with this storm system, and have also leaned
that way as well by only incorporating slgt chc pops for Sunday
evening in the far eastern counties. Precipitation type will be
showers and tstms. Given favorable dynamics and shear magnitudes,
isold storms will have the potential to become strong to perhaps
marginally severe, with the greater threat expected to be
southeast of our fcst area. The quaility of low level moisture
return by Sunday for this storm system to work with remains
uncertain, and this will also play a role in tstm strength later
Sunday.

Dry weather and above normal temperatures will then prevail
next Monday through Thursday. The next strong upper level storm
system is progged by all medium range models to move across the
cntrl plains states well north of our fcst area. This projected
path suggests windy conditions for Thursday. The associated sfc
cold front is fcst to move through the region Thursday night,
leading to sharply cooler temperatures next Friday.

Andrade

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will likely develop
next Thursday across all of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles due
to low relative humidity values along with breezy to windy
conditons.

Andrade

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                36  71  43  68  40 /   0   0   0  20   5
Beaver OK                  36  70  43  68  40 /   0   0   0  30  20
Boise City OK              35  68  39  64  35 /   0   0   0  20   5
Borger TX                  39  72  47  70  44 /   0   0   0  30   5
Boys Ranch TX              35  72  41  67  38 /   0   0   0  20   5
Canyon TX                  35  71  42  68  40 /   0   0   0  20   5
Clarendon TX               38  71  44  68  43 /   0   0   0  40   5
Dalhart TX                 33  70  39  65  35 /   0   0   0  20   5
Guymon OK                  34  70  42  68  39 /   0   0   0  20  10
Hereford TX                35  71  41  67  39 /   0   0   0  20   5
Lipscomb TX                36  71  44  67  42 /   0   0   0  40  20
Pampa TX                   37  71  43  67  41 /   0   0   0  30  10
Shamrock TX                39  72  45  67  43 /   0   0   0  50  20
Wellington TX              40  72  46  68  45 /   0   0   0  50  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$



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