Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 162313

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
513 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at the Guymon and Dalhart TAF sites
through 00Z Sunday. VFR conditions are also expected at the
Amarillo TAF site with the exception of some MVFR ceilings and
possible light rain between about 01Z and 08Z Saturday. Southeast
to south winds 10 to 20 knots will become southwest to west after
07Z and 09Z Saturday at all three TAF sites and then becoming
northwest to north after 12Z to 14Z Saturday. Northeast to east
and southeast winds 10 to 20 knots can be expected after 17Z to
20Z Saturday at all three TAF sites.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018/

Band of precipitation to our south is expected to slowly make its
way into the southern Texas Panhandle tonight. Forecast soundings
show that the precipitation could be a mix of rain and snow, so
will continue with this idea. We did increase the pops a little,
mainly across the southeast Texas Panhandle as confidence has
increased. Upper level short wave associated with this
precipitation will quickly move east away from our area by early
Saturday morning.

Saturday will be a dry day behind this system. The upper level low
that has been off the Baja California coast will finally start to
shear out and move our way by Sunday. Winds are expected to pick
up out of the southwest into the 20 to 35 mph range with higher
gusts by Sunday afternoon as this wave approaches. Temperatures
will also warm well above normal on Sunday due to the downslope
winds. This system should come across dry however.

Monday should be another windy and warm day as a lee-side surface
trough continues to bring downslope winds to the area.

Another dry cold front sweeps through the Panhandles on Tuesday as
an upper level trough passes us by to the north.

High temperatures will then return back up to normal by Thursday.

Critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the
northwest part of the CWA on Sunday and Monday as winds increase
and relative humidities fall. Did not issue a Fire Weather Watch
at this point for Sunday as relative humidity values will be close
to critical values.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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