Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 211743 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1243 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA.

ISOLATED VCTS/TSRA WILL OCCUR IN A CORRIDOR BETWEEN THE KDHT/KGUY
AND KAMA TERMINALS 21Z-04Z. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VCTS AT KAMA
22Z-01Z. IF A TSRA DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL, BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

S/SSW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH 02Z, PARTICULARLY AT KAMA.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TODAY TO
THE EAST OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 25
KTS AT KAMA AND KGUY...WHILE STAYING A LITTLE LIGHTER AT KDHT CLOSER
TO THE TROUGH AXIS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAVE CONFINED VCTS MENTION TO KAMA FOR NOW...WHERE
CHANCES APPEAR A LITTLE BETTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  LOW THUNDERSTORM
POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MOST AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OWING TO
PERSISTENCE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND DIURNAL INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AXES.  MODERATE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CAPPING ISSUES.  IN FACT...MODELS PREDICT
COOLING OF SAME IN LATER PERIODS.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE SPREAD POPS EASTWARD...DUE TO EXPECTED
SHORTWAVE TROF TRAVERSING MOISTURE PLUME.  FRIDAY EVENING POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED IN NORTHWEST SECTIONS AS ANOTHER EXPECTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES.

ON SATURDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST THREE-FOURTHS OF FORECAST AREA...AS MODELS AGREE THAT MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA SHOULD PASS OVER INSTABILITY AXIS.   FOR THE
EVENING...LOW POPS HAVE BEEN SPREAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AS DYNAMICS
PASS.

FOR SUNDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS.
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS HAVE BEEN REALIGNED...WITH HIGHER POPS NOW IN
NORTHEAST SECTIONS...WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE
POSITIONED AS 500 MB COLD POOL ARRIVES.

NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.  00Z GFS BRINGS COLD FRONT INTO
PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO EARLIER ECMWF RUN.  HAVE
ACCEPTED THIS SCENARIO...WITH WIND SHIFT AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
20 PERCENT AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

CLK/JJ



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