Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 020334
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1034 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS LINE WILL REACH KGUY AND KDHT
AROUND THE SAME TIME...06Z.. WITH KAMA LAGGING UNTIL 07Z TO 08Z. AS
THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH A BRIEF WIND GUST UP TO 35 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BRIEF MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH...BUT
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OTHERWISE. BEHIND THE LINE SURFACE
WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 10KT OR LESS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH WHILE REMAINING
LIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KDHT. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CONVECTION FREE...BUT AS 00Z
APPROACHES THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN. HAVE
INSERTED VICINITY SHOWERS IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
FUTURE TAF CYCLES TO NARROW DOWN THE WINDOW FOR CHANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL SITES BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE PERIOD. HAVE TIMED OUT THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TO START AROUND 14Z...18Z AND 19Z GOING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LATER
ISSUANCES WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING THOUGH FOR ON STATION.
WINDS AT KAMA VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY. KDHT HAS EASTERLY
WINDS RIGHT NOW BUT THEY WILL BACK OVER THE EVENING THEN VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY 18Z AND BACK AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. WINDS AT KGUY ARE
NORTHERLY AND WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 14Z THEN SWING TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BY 18Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LITE EXCEPT FOR AT KDHT WHERE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS MAY OCCUR AFTER 18Z.

BEAT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
WEAK S/WV...STRONG HEATING AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
MINIMAL CHCS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
NW ZONES WHERE ACTIVITY OFF NM MOUNTAINS HAS A LOW POTENTIAL TO ENTER
AREA. OVERALL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
THIS POTENTIAL WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN MID-UPR RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH CENTER AND RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS NM. MEANWHILE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
WILL POOL AND DEEPEN MOISTURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY. WHILE WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE WEAK...THERE IS SOME GOOD VEERING IN
THE PROFILE AND MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEER OF 30-40 ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SB CAPE VALUES REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG
(PER NAM12) SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA AND
SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. WEAKER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE SUGGESTS WIND AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH
SOME HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY DUE TO
RETREATING RIDGE AND ABUNDANT CIRRUS DECK FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

GITTINGER

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
AND FOCUSING SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN THAT
IN BETWEEN AREA WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND A
TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. IN BOTH CASES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE PANHANDLES ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHINESS TO FOCUS
CONVECTION DURING THOSE TIME FRAMES. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SEASON...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAJOR THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT AND NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER HELP TO KEEP
SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES AT BAY. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE THE
DRIEST AND WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON THAT DAY.

GARCIA

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/14





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