Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 252341 CCA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES BY 06Z THURSDAY
RESULTING IN SNOW DEVELOPING AND SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE DALHART TAF SITE AROUND
01Z TO 03Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AROUND 04Z TO
06Z THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR TO LIFR AFTER 01Z TO 06Z
AT BOTH THE DALHART AND AMARILLO TAF SITES ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 14Z TO 16Z THURSDAY. THE SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF THE GUYMON TAF SITE WITH
GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 10Z TO 14Z
THURSDAY...AND THEN 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PHEW! WHAT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THE PANHANDLES ARE ABOUT TO BE
IN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD! IT HAS TAKEN ALL DAY TO TRY AND SORT THINGS
OUT WITH OUR MAIN FOCUS REALLY BEING ON THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SO HERE`S
THE SCOOP:

ROUND ONE: TONIGHT - THURSDAY MORNING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND TRACK ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES. THIS QUICK SHOT
OF PRECIPITATION COULD LEAD TO AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL...MAYBE
TWO. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT AS RAIN
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN
ICE GLAZING SITUATION ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. ADD A
LITTLE SNOW ON TOP OF THAT...AND TRAVEL ISSUES COULD EASILY DEVELOP BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

BREAK ONE: THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL DISAPPEAR AS QUICKLY AS IT ARRIVED
LEAVING COLD TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 20S
WHICH WILL BE QUITE THE CONTRAST FROM TODAY. THERE COULD BE OFF AND
ON LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ROUND TWO: THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BIGGEST IMPACT FOR SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER DEFINITELY HAVE THE BEST SHOT
TO SEE A QUICK 2-4 INCHES WITH THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR SNOW BEING
3AM-9AM...JUST IN TIME FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN RIVER...1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS, TIMING, AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL...SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THIS ROUND.

BREAK TWO: FRIDAY NIGHT
SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING WILL PRECLUDE SNOWFALL AS MUCH OF THE SNOW ENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS! BRRR! DURING THIS
TIME...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

ROUND THREE: SATURDAY
HOWEVER...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
MODELS ARE NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT AT ALL AS FAR AS LOCATION OF
SNOWFALL...SO DECIDED TO KEEP A GENERAL UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE FOR ALL
THE PANHANDLES.

ROUND FOUR AND BEYOND: SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY
THIS IS DEFINITELY THE COMPLICATED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT WITHOUT AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THE AREA COULD BE DEALING WITH A MESSY FORECAST. LOWS AT
NIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING GIVING WAY TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WHILE DURING THE DAY...MOST AREAS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING RESULTING IN MOSTLY RAIN. THIS PATTERN COULD DEFINITELY GO
BACK AND FORTH DURING THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIPITATION BEING MONDAY AND AGAIN NEXT WEDNESDAY.

WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT FOR WINTRY WEATHER...BUT MAKE SURE TO PAY ATTENTION THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AS
THIS IS A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH MAJOR DISCREPANCIES IN THE
MODELS ANTICIPATED.

KH

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST
     FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HARTLEY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST
     FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

11/05








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