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000
FXUS64 KAMA 081718
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1118 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEARING SKIES BY 00Z SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME VFR BY 21Z TODAY TO 00Z SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25
KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 23Z TODAY TO 01Z SUNDAY.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST...WEST AND
THEN SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/

AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CWA TODAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND IT MAY AFFECT THE
DHT AND GUY TAF SITES THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT MVFR
CONDITIONS INTO A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AT BOTH SITES.
OTHERWISE...DHT AND GUY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. MVFR CIGS AT AMA SHOULD
HOLD ON THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN WE SHOULD SEE VFR CIGS THERE.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE TO BELOW 10 KNOTS BY SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
MORNING.

PRECIPITATION HAS STRUGGLED TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWING AN INITIAL ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES LAST
EVENING...MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS REALLY HURT PRECIP PRODUCTION ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST
KS...WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS
APPEARS TO BE VIRGA. AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CO AND
NM THIS MORNING...MID-LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO MOISTEN BACK UP ACROSS
THE OK PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE...WHICH MAY ALLOW
ONGOING LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THESE AREAS. HOWEVER
FORCING WILL BE PRETTY WEAK AND WANING WITH TIME. PHONE CALLS AROUND
THE AREA REVEAL A LIGHT DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. BASED ON ALL
OF THIS...DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
HANSFORD...OCHILTREE...AND LIPSCOMB COUNTIES AS ANY SNOWFALL WILL
REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED CANCELLING THE ENTIRE
ADVISORY...AS ONE INCH SNOWFALLS ARE GOING TO BE HARD TO COME BY AND
LIKELY CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ONE INCH AMOUNTS IN THE FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST SO WILL LET IT RUN ITS
COURSE IN THESE AREAS. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLES...ANY
PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE VERY LIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN WHERE THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL
BE MOST PRONOUNCED. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY MIDDAY AS FORCING
WITH THE SPLITTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. NORTH
WINDS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOLD
TEMPS BACK...BUT HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY AS DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK LEE TROUGH BRINGS WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. HEIGHT
RISES ALOFT ON MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE SLOW-TO-DEPART SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
ALONG WITH CONTINUED SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND ATTENDANT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. STILL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A PRETTY WARM DAY
AHEAD OF ITS ARRIVAL. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WAVE WILL SPLIT AS
WELL...WITH MODELS STRUGGLING ON THE HANDLING OF THIS. THE ECMWF
BRINGS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EAST ACROSS THE AREA...SUPPORTING A QUICK
SHOT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE GFS
HOLD MORE OF THE ENERGY BACK...AND THUS IS MUCH DRIER.

WE/LL SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON WEDNESDAY IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...BEFORE TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO LAG BACK TO
THE WEST FROM THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SPLITTING WAVE LOOKS TO
EVENTUALLY WORK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SPOTTY PRECIP WITH THIS...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES
LOOK PRETTY DRY ATTM. DRY CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND UNDER A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING WEST
COAST RIDGE.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE MONDAY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TX
PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. WINDS CURRENTLY LOOK MARGINAL FOR MONDAY...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ALLOWING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT TO
GO ALONG WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD RETURN TO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/05