546
FXUS64 KAMA 091722
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

-Cold front may generate strong to severe thunderstorms on
 Thursday.

-Repeat rounds of thunderstorms and slightly below average
 temperatures Friday into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

After a few early morning thunderstorms, an expanding H500 high
pressure system centered just south of the Four Corners region is
reaching the Panhandles. This will bring mostly dry conditions
throughout at least midday tomorrow. There is an very low chance
(~10%) that the far NW Panhandles could see a thunderstorm that
developed along the NM/CO high terrain later this evening, but
overall dry conditions are expected. These dry conditions are
expected to continue through the first half of the day tomorrow. A
H500 trough moving east across the central Plains will compress
and displace main H500 over the SW CONUS back west towards
California. This will result in a sfc cold front moving through
the region tomorrow evening through tomorrow night. Along that
front with good lift, with MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg in the
most aggressive data sets, a few storms that develop along and
ahead of the front could be severe. Hail up to quarter size, along
with 60-70 mph wind gust will be the main threat with these
storms that develop. It should not be widespread, but a few storms
could be severe within this environment. Along with wind and hail
threat, localized flooding will be possible as PWAT values for
tomorrow will range from the 75th to 90th percentile based of July
climatology. High temperatures tomorrow should be well into the
90s, with a few locations possible reaching 100 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

The center of the main H500 aforementioned high pressure system
will begin to shift west towards the southern California
coastline, as seen by the latest 09/12Z model and numerical data.
A series of disturbances in a return of H500 NW flow will bring
diurnally driven convection through the coming weekend into early
next week. Weak steering flow across the south central CONUS will
also result in the potential of localized flooding daily with
thunderstorms that develop within the region overall.
High temperatures in the wake of the cold front, along with our
increase precipitation chances will be slightly below average from
this weekend through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will range from southeasterly to southwesterly at
5-15 kts with a few high clouds.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29