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000
FXUS64 KAMA 050931
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
331 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY WEAK ECHO RETURNS ON RADAR BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY IS
ACTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AFTER THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING FRONT VERY WELL WHICH
LEADS TO DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TYPE IF ANY DOES FALL IN
OUR AREA. AM CURRENTLY FAVORING THE HRRR IN THE SHORT-TERM AS IT
SEEMS TO HANDLING THE FRONT THE BEST. GOING WITH THIS THOUGHT
PROCESS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE TODAY MIGHT ACTUALLY BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PAN OUT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER IF PRECIP DOES FALL
NORTH OF A CANADIAN TO DALHART LINE PRECIP TYPE COULD BE A BIT
TRICKIER. AM CURRENTLY GOING WITH A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN MIX AS
MODELS VARY ON HOW LARGE THE WARM NOSE WILL BE. ALL THAT BEING SAID
IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT...NO MATTER
WHAT FORM IT COMES DOWN IN. AFTER THE FRONT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WE WILL RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE ARE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH IT OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AGAIN
PRECIP TYPE MIGHT DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...IF IT MOVES
THROUGH AFTER WE HAVE WARMED UP ENOUGH THE AREA COULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING AND INITIAL PRECIP WOULD BE ALL RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THEN IT
COULD BE A WINTRY MIX THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT. MODELS STILL ARE NOT IN
GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW FAST AND DEEP TO MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA JUST AFTER THIS 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DECREASE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                41  28  68  38  68 /  10   0   0   5   5
BEAVER OK                  34  21  60  31  57 /  50   5   0   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              41  28  69  36  59 /  30   0   0   5  20
BORGER TX                  40  30  67  41  67 /  20   0   0   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              47  30  72  39  70 /  10   0   0   5  10
CANYON TX                  45  27  68  37  70 /   5   0   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               41  28  64  37  70 /  20   5   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 43  24  70  35  66 /  10   0   0   5  10
GUYMON OK                  39  25  67  34  61 /  40   0   0   5  10
HEREFORD TX                46  26  69  38  70 /   5   0   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                36  20  59  33  60 /  50   5   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   36  27  61  39  61 /  20   5   0   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                37  23  59  33  66 /  50   5   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              40  25  60  34  70 /  60   5   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/19