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000
FXUS64 KAMA 212041
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
341 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Similar to yesterday, current satellite and radar analysis are
showing building cumulus associated with convection developing
downstream of the high terrain across eastern New Mexico along a
surface trough. Temperatures have warming nicely through the mid
and upper 90s. Coupled that with good mid level lapse rates above
8 C/km, especially across the northern and northwestern
Panhandles, these areas will have the best chances of seeing
strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening
hours. Latest upper air profile analysis shows our freezing
heights slightly lower than at this time yesterday in-conjunction
with MUCAPE values between 2500-3000 J/Kg. Including inverted-v
sounding with good mixing this afternoon, damaging winds and large
hail will both be the main threat as we go in the afternoon and
early evening hours. Localized flooding will also be possible with
weak winds aloft in a very pulse like environment. If mesoscale
convective boundaries form with storms training, that could lead
to possible flooding with latest PWATs of over an inch. Latest
CAMs/HRRR illustrate more linear convection as we get into the
evening hours in which rainfall may reach as far southeast into
the TX Panhandle from a line stretching from Amarillo to Perryton.
Convection will dissipate as we go into the late evening and
overnight hours from north to south as we lose the daytime
heating. Some residual showers may linger across the far southern
TX Panhandle by Thursday morning. Low temperatures tonight will
range from the mid to upper 60s.

Our last day of well above average temperatures will be tomorrow
as southerly flow and eastward extending upper level ridge into
our region will bring very warm temperatures once again. Diurnally
driven convection across the northern Panhandles will be present
once again, with more of a limited coverage compared to today.
High temperatures Thursday will range from the mid 90s to lower
100s.

As we go from Friday into early next week, a slow but progressive
cold front will make its way through the Panhandles. Temperatures
from Friday through Sunday will progressively cool down with
highs well below average in the 70s by the time we reach Sunday.
Out ahead of this front will be very rich moisture which some of
its source will be a loose connection from now tropical Storm
Cindy near the TX/LA Gulf coastline. With PWATS in the +1 to +2
S.D. range in-conjunction with a good 800-600 hPa convergence line
lagging behind the main cold front, there will be several chances
of rainfall across the Panhandles with the best chances in the TX
Panhandle along the main cold front into the weekend. Specific of
rainfall amounts and timing of the cold front will be updated as
we get closer to this multi-day pattern in the next 48-72 hours.

Northwesterly flow aloft will return to the Panhandles by early
next week as the main cold front exits the region by early Monday
morning. Temperatures will also rebound to near average as we go
into early next week with an isolated shower or storm possible in
the far western Panhandles.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66  97  67  88  62 /  30  10  20  20  40
Beaver OK                  67  99  67  85  64 /  40  10  30  20  30
Boise City OK              65  99  62  81  59 /  50  20  30  20  30
Borger TX                  68 100  68  89  64 /  40  10  20  20  40
Boys Ranch TX              67 102  66  89  63 /  40  10  20  20  40
Canyon TX                  65  98  67  89  63 /  30   5  20  20  40
Clarendon TX               67  96  69  91  63 /  20   5  20  20  40
Dalhart TX                 65 101  66  84  61 /  50  20  20  20  40
Guymon OK                  66 100  65  82  61 /  50  10  30  20  30
Hereford TX                65 100  67  91  63 /  30  10  20  20  30
Lipscomb TX                66  98  68  86  63 /  30   5  20  20  40
Pampa TX                   65  96  66  87  61 /  30   5  20  20  40
Shamrock TX                67  97  69  93  65 /  20   5  20  20  40
Wellington TX              68  97  71  94  66 /  20   5  10  20  40

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

16/29