Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 281943
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
243 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEVADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY AND WILL GET RE-ORGANIZED OVER
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...THE PANHANDLES WILL
COME UNDER INCREASING LIFT AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A STAGE FOR A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SO
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THERE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE EASTERN CWA BY TUESDAY...
SO LINGERED POPS ALONG THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITH A TRAILING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
PANHANDLES WILL BE ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE ANY
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND
CHANCES OF RAIN EARLY IN THE FORECAST WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                55  79  56  82  49 /   0  20  30   5   5
BEAVER OK                  59  84  60  84  55 /   0  10  70  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              56  78  53  79  49 /   0  50  70   5   5
BORGER TX                  60  82  62  84  58 /   0  20  40   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              57  80  57  83  52 /   0  20  50   5   5
CANYON TX                  56  79  57  83  55 /   0  20  30   5   5
CLARENDON TX               60  82  60  84  59 /   0  10  20  10  10
DALHART TX                 56  79  53  80  50 /   0  50  70   5   5
GUYMON OK                  58  82  57  82  52 /   0  20  70   5   5
HEREFORD TX                56  78  57  82  54 /   0  20  30   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                59  83  61  84  58 /   0  10  40  20  20
PAMPA TX                   58  81  59  83  56 /   0  10  30  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                60  84  61  85  59 /   0  10  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              62  85  63  86  62 /   0  10  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15



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