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000
FXUS64 KAMA 220940
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THE FOCI OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER ON WED, THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, AND THE POSSIBLE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. FOR YOU AVID AFD FOLLOWERS, CONSISTENT
MODELS MEAN THERE`S NOT MUCH NEW TO TALK ABOUT FOR WED, BUT I`LL
TRY. FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE YOU CAN SCRAP MY
ILL-CONCEIVED, WISHFUL IDEA THAT THE GFS WOULD ACTUALLY PAN OUT AND
BRING US RAIN AS THE GFS HAS NOW FALLEN IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND GEM.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR WE METEOROLOGISTS IS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE WEEKEND IS INCREASING, THE BAD NEWS FOR PANHANDLE RESIDENTS IS
THAT WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY SLOT WIND BAG SOLUTION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR STORMS
FALLING OF THE NM HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, AND HAVE UTILIZED 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT.
OTHERWISE...A BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE
NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...MAYBE EVEN HOVERING AROUND 60 IN
SOME PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...
THOSE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LEAD TO A WARM WEDNESDAY. BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL BE COMING TOGETHER NICELY AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A CLASSIC 2-PRONGED SPRING DAY OF POTENTIAL SVR IN THE
EAST AND VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GREAT AND DID NOT CHANGE POP/WX STRUCTURE, WITH 50 POPS IN THE
EAST AND 0 POPS IN THE WEST.

CHASER/WX NERD VERSION...
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN EXCELLENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE ONLY DIFFERENCES INVOLVE TIMING/STRENGTH OF SPEED MAXES WHICH
WILL PLAY A PART IN THE EVOLUTION OF SVR WX. THE NAM STILL HAS THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPR FLOW...BUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE
GETTING SMALLER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE WEAK CAPPING AND
ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE CAPROCK...PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF AN
AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE. FAIRLY STRAIGHT AFTERNOON HODOGRAPHS WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG) CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUPERCELL (SOME SPLITTING)
STORM MODE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING AND MODEST
FORCING...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD...MEANING
STORM INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH TO A BROKEN
LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN INITIAL ISOLATED CONVECTION.
ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WOULD ALSO POSE A WIND THREAT AS COLD POOL
GENERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER. IN
ADDITION...0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30KTS MAY FAVOR A WELL BALANCED,
LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR CHASERS BUT FORTUNATELY FOR EVERYONE ELSE...THE
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW FOR SEVERAL REASONS: 1) WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT, 2) HIGH LCLS ABOVE 2000M, AND 3)
POTENTIAL STORM INTERACTION RESULTING IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS
INTO CLUSTERS OR A LINE. AS FAR AS THE LCLS...EVEN THE MODEL WITH THE
MOISTEST LOW LVL SOLUTION, THE SREF, SHOWS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT LCLS STAY GREATER THAN 1500M EVERYWHERE THROUGH 03Z THU. ONE
COULD ARGUE THAT THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO WINDOW WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT REMAIN INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS CLOUD BASES LOWER
AND INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING PROMOTES INCREASING 0-1 SRH
VALUES. HOWEVER, BY THAT POINT FCST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SFC INVERSION STRENGTHENING TO A LEVEL THAT WILL QUICKLY PRECLUDE SFC
BASED CONVECTION. WE DO LIKE TO ALWAYS INCLUDE THE CAVEAT THAT ANY
LOCALIZED BAROCLINIC ZONES (IE BOUNDARIES) COULD AUGMENT THE LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO BECOME TORNADIC, AND
THOUGH UNLIKELY, WEAK TORNADOES ARE NOT UNHEARD OF WITH LCL HEIGHTS
ABOVE 2000M.

ALL SAID...HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND WITH THE
BEST SVR STORM WINDOW EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE FROM 2P-9P
WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOK NICE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH THE MODELS ALL NOW LATCHING ONTO THE NEGATIVE TILT UPR SYSTEM
JUST TO OUR NW ON SAT...VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
ALL THE MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE H5 SPEED MAX BACK UNTIL SAT
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD BET ON SAT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED IF THE H5/H7 SPEED MAX DOES COME IN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WHEN DEEP MIXING COULD GET US GUSTING TO 60 MPH. SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AS WELL...AND WIND HEADLINES
COULD BE NEEDED ALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF VERY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS ARE LOOKING LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD...THE PANHANDLES WILL
BE LUCKY TO GET THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT A FROST OR FREEZE. AT THE
VERY LEAST, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY.

SIMPSON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN VERY DRY AIR BEHIND A
DRYLINE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
HERBACEOUS GREEN UP BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
FUELS REMAIN DRY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS QUELL THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON
&&


.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...
     SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TEXAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/09