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000
FXUS64 KAMA 062343 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
543 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECT A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS SFC WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND UPSLOPE. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AS TO WHEN...TO WHAT EXTENT...AND FOR HOW
LONG THEY WILL LAST. AMENDMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
THE ONGOING COLD SPELL REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND THE EXPECTED POSITION OF ITS AXIS WILL FAVOR COLD EARLY
MORNING TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE POSITION OF THIS HIGH WILL
ALSO MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS /UNDER 10 MPH/. SO ALTHOUGH WIND CHILLS
WILL FALL TO 5 BELOW TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO...SFC WINDS WILL
STAY UNDER 10 MPH PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
AND/OR WARNINGS. AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY...SFC WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE WHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASING UP TO
AROUND 700 MB AS A RESULT OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW. FEW OF THE NWP MODELS
DISPLAY SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DRY AIR WILL RESIDE
IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL CUT BACK ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS THE
BETTER LIFT/MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WEST OF THE AMA CWA. DESPITE THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION...ANOTHER COLD DAY IS SLATED FOR SATURDAY AS HIGHS
WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. ALTHOUGH LOWS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT`S...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS MAY NECESSITATE
THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL LET
THE NEXT SHIFT LOOK OVER THE 00Z DATA AND MAKE THE CALL IF AN
ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER TROUGH ORIGINATING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIG SOUTH
ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL POSITION
ITSELF OVER THE REGION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW SUNDAY WILL
PLAY OUT WRT TEMPS AS A SFC TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT TAKES AIM ON THE AREA. NWP MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN HOLDING THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES...LEAVING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO BENEFIT FROM THE
WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER THE TEMP GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE AS EXTREME AS IT WAS PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A
FEW DAYS AGO GIVEN THE CHILLY TEMPS ALREADY IN PLACE. STILL THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE CAN SEE TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE SUB FREEZING TEMPS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA LATER IN THE EVENING...ONCE AGAIN SENDING TEMPS ON A DOWNWARD
SPIRAL WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 20S MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY THE FLOW WILL FLATTEN BEFORE A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW MODERATION IN
TEMPS ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING HIGHS TO CLIMB MUCH OUT OF THE 40S
THROUGH THE WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES ALSO LOOK SLIM GIVEN THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS EITHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND/OR 20 FOOT WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$