Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 262314
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
614 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PICK THE WINDS UP FROM
THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR LATEST
WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES TO PASS TO OUR NORTH WHILE PROVIDING AN
ABUNDANCE OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES WHICH HAS PRODUCED A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL SURGE MAKES
ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF A LEAD
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT UPR LEVEL SYSTEM.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. CURRENT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES AS OTHER AREAS ARE LACKING THE
NECESSARY MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH...IF THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS ARE
CORRECT IN THE FURTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...THEN
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS COULD SEE MORE RAINFALL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ERN PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL MAY END UP BEING LIMITED BY
CLOUD COVER LEFT BEHIND BY EXPECTED THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING CONVECTION.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID 60S SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND
SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
TIME THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

LORENZEN/SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET. TOMORROW...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ON THURSDAY PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE COULD REACH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN...HOWEVER MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE AND OTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARIES COULD ALTER THE
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

LORENZEN

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                45  73  44  76  51 /   5   0   0  10  40
BEAVER OK                  46  71  41  72  50 /  10   0   0  20  70
BOISE CITY OK              40  68  39  66  45 /   5   0   0  10  60
BORGER TX                  46  73  47  76  52 /   5   0   0  20  50
BOYS RANCH TX              43  74  44  78  49 /   5   0   0  10  40
CANYON TX                  45  75  43  78  50 /   5   0   0  10  40
CLARENDON TX               49  75  47  77  54 /   5   0   0  20  40
DALHART TX                 41  70  41  73  46 /   5   0   0  10  50
GUYMON OK                  45  71  41  70  49 /   5   0   0  20  70
HEREFORD TX                43  76  43  79  49 /   0   0   0  10  30
LIPSCOMB TX                47  72  42  73  53 /  10   0   0  20  70
PAMPA TX                   44  70  44  74  50 /   5   0   0  20  50
SHAMROCK TX                49  75  47  77  56 /   5   0   0  20  50
WELLINGTON TX              51  78  49  80  58 /   5   0   0  20  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14



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