Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 240455

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1155 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

06z Issuance...Thunderstorms continue to push eastward and will be
exiting the Panhandles by 06z or so. VFR conditions can be
expected through the night at all TAF sites as clouds clear out
from west to east. Southwest winds will stay around 15 to 20
knots through the night but will be switching to northwest as a
cold front moves through Friday morning. Winds behind the front
are expected to be very strong especially across the western
Panhandles (KDHT) where 55 knot gusts are possible through early
Friday evening. At KGUY winds will decrease to light and variable
during the early morning as a surface low moves overhead prior to
the fronts arrival. Gusts to 50 knots will not be out of the
question for KAMA or KGUY tomorrow afternoon. A few hours of MVFR
cigs may also come in behind the front, but should clear out by
early afternoon.



PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 440 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

See mesoscale discussion below.


Not much has changed forecast-wise. Tomorrow is still looking
very windy on the backside of the low. Winds tomorrow could gust
up to 70 mph. These north winds will limit our heating potential
tomorrow to slightly below climatological norms. Precip will be
likely in the OK Panhandle and northern TX Panhandle with the wrap
around moisture. Mid- level height rises on Saturday will bring
surface temps back up into the 70s. The next upper level shortwave
passes through the central Plains on Sunday and may bring some
glancing precip to very northern sections of the OK Panhandle.

Weather remains calm for the beginning of the work week as ridging
builds into the area. By mid week there is another chance for
thunderstorms. Models are still very diverse on solutions for both
timing and location of the next big system. Long range solutions
seem to be trending more towards the GFS solution with deepening
and slowing the system from Tuesday to Wednesday/Thursday time
frame. This will continue to need watching for more trends to nail
any details down, but it does seem to bring a good chance for
precip to the area.


After this afternoon`s critical fire weather conditions settle
down, elevated fire weather is possible on Sunday for portions
of the southern TX Panhandle. The remainder of next week looks to
stay calm for fire weather concerns.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...High Wind Watch from 10 AM CDT Friday through Friday evening for
     the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...
     Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...

OK...High Wind Watch from 10 AM CDT Friday through Friday evening for
     the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.



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