Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 301800 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1200 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECASTS...WHICH INDICATE COMPLEX WINTRY
MIX WEATHER TYPES AND HIGH PROBABILITY POPS /60-90 PERCENT/.

AN ENHANCED SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING TOWARD THE
PANHANDLES FROM EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ATTM.  THIS APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH FORECASTS AND NWP WHICH ALL DEPICT AN ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL PANHANDLES 18-00Z. CURRENT DEWPOINT/WET
BULB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE IN A RANGE BORDERLINE FOR
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A VARIETY OF
P-TYPES...BUT SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT FAVOR EITHER RAIN OR SLEET IN THE CENTRAL
TEXAS PANHANDLE /INCLUDING THE AMARILLO AREA/.  THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS SITUATION WELL...BUT CONCERN
EXISTS FOR POTENTIALLY MORE NOTABLE SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT.

THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING TIMING OF
THE ONSET OF PRECIP ALONG WITH PRECIP TYPE.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD START OUT AS ALL
RAIN AT THE KAMA TERMINAL WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
AT KDHT/KGUY ONSET OF PRECIP WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT SHOULD
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATER AS LIFT INCREASES IN THE DENDRETIC
GROWTH ZONE IN THIS AREA WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE COLUMN
COOLING BELOW FREEZING. EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE AT
KDHT/KGUY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER AT KAMA...PRECIP TYPE LOOKS
MORE COMPLICATED AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED WARM NOSE
AROUND 800-750 MB TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SO FOR KAMA HAVE A
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE END OF
THE VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
WORST FLYING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH A GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES COINCIDENTALLY
INCREASE. PERIODS OF PREDOMINATELY RAIN MIXED AT TIMES WITH SNOW OR
POSSIBLY SLEET WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AND LIFR CONDITIONS COULD BE APPROACHED
OR REACHED DUE TO EITHER CEILINGS OR REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SNOW.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TRICKY PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK.

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL START
UP TODAY AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
BELIEVE THAT THERE COULD BE A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE ANYTHING FROM RAIN...SLEET
AND SNOW...WITH MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...
HOWEVER...SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN EVEN THERE LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
OR SLEET WILL BE ACROSS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA. 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO STATE LINE MAINLY SOUTH OF DALHART. THE MODELS
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES AT
AROUND 850 MB. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES...WHICH COULD MAKE
FOR SOME INTERESTING PRECIPITATION TYPES. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE TO KEEP THE PRECIP SNOW OR SLEET AND NOT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS WE GET CLOSER TO TONIGHT.

RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE THE RULE ON THE CAPROCK THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
MORE RAIN THAN SNOW OFF OF THE CAPROCK DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
RAIN AND SNOW MAY MAKE A RETURN TO MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...COOLING OFF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AFTER THAT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODIFY
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HARTLEY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

10/05





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