Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 210147
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
847 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
GRAPHICAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED...CONFINING ISOLATED EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ONLY...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LOSS OF INSOLATION.  NO OTHER
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.  UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THIS TIME SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  THUS...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCLUDED IN KAMA TAF.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND IF
NECESSARY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY.

AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY.  POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF MVFR OR IFR STRATUS
MAY DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
CERTAINTY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
FORECAST.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...REACHING SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT.  BASES OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED APART FROM
AFOREMENTIONED FOG AND STRATUS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VORT LOBE FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM. BY TUESDAY EVENING WE
COULD SEE PRECIP SNEAK ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS VARY A LITTLE ON IF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT A
GREATER PART OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS
CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY THE NOON
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THE DAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30KT
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING THESE STORMS CHANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FROM THE
70S ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/99




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