Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 181739 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1239 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING THE DHT TAF SITE AT THIS WRITING AND SHOWERS
MAY MOVE INTO THE AMA AND GUY TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO MVFR GROUP TO ALL TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
VISIBILITY MAY DROP BELOW 6 MILES UNDER A HEAVIER SHOWER. BELIEVE
THAT THE CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 4000 FEET. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A FAST MOVING AND RATHER COMPACT UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS NEWD JOURNEY OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
THE TX AND OK PNHDLS TODAY. SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD TSTM EXISTS...ESPECIALLY AT KDHT AND KAMA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS WEATHER ELEMENT FOR
THIS FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN PINNING DOWN THE TIMING AND
LOCATION. PRECIP THREAT DIMINISHES BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS IS ALL
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT
THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITHOUT MUCH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AND A
HEALTHY CAP PRESENT...THINK THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HARD TO COME BY SO
KEPT ONLY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE
RAINFALL TODAY...IN FACT...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT. WITH THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AROUND...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S AREA WIDE TODAY. FOR
TONIGHT...ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED. FOR
SUNDAY...THE SUN WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE AS DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IS DEFINITELY NOT CLEAR
CUT AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT DISAGREEMENT. PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS HAVE KEPT ALL CONVECTION WEST OF THE PANHANDLES IN NEW MEXICO.
HOWEVER THE 00Z MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON
JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE AROUND...SO HIGHS
IN THE 70S SEEM REASONABLE.

BY WEDNESDAY...A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SPARKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
6-12 HOURS EARLIER WITH PRECIPITATION TIMING...WHILE THE GFS REALLY
FOCUSES THE BULK OF THE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES...BUT
THERE STILL IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...LEFT FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14




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