Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 230537

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1237 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017


For the 06Z TAFs:

We will begin the period in VFR conditions, but we should start to
deteriorate to MVFR conditions for ceilings later this morning as
the lower levels saturate. These low clouds (1,000 to 3,000 feet)
should stick around for the remainder of the morning and early
afternoon. Decided to carry the MVFR clouds all the way through
until early evening, but chances are we could break sooner to
more of a scattered deck. Should be able to refine this in more
detail in the next set of TAFs. Otherwise, it will be breezy today
behind a cold front that will have a strong pressure gradient.
Speeds will start to calm down around sunset.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 632 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

For the 00z TAFs...
Scattered thunderstorms expected to develop between 00z and 05z
Friday, with potential for direct impacts at all terminals.  Main
threat expected to be erratic gusts above 40 kt in and near
thunderstorms.  Otherwise, southeast surface winds around 15 kt
should prevail this evening.  Cold front expected to pass
terminals between 06z and 11z Friday, with north northeast surface
winds gusting into the 30 to 40 kt range through at least most of
the morning.  MVFR ceilings expected to develop after 11z at
northern terminals, persisting all morning at GUY, and through
most of the day at DHT.  At this time, not expecting MVFR
ceilings Friday morning at AMA.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 515 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

Showers and storms, some may be severe again, this evening across
the Panhandles as a shortwave trough move through the area.
Overall CAMS are suggesting more of a line of storms later in the
evening to move through, with perhaps a discrete storm or two
ahead of the main line. Most of the convection has started off
over the NM area and is fairly weak. Expect these storms will
become stronger as they move into a more unstable environment over
the western Panhandles, and will eventually become a line
progressing from northwest to southeast. Right now hail with some
of the stronger storms could be around ping pong ball size (1.5")
maybe a bit larger for areas over the OK Panhandle, where
instability is a bit higher. Gusty winds will be the main issue as
storms become more of a line later tonight.

High pressure will continue to amplify over the west as the upper
level trough digs down the central and eastern CONUS. A cold
front will work its way south tonight across the Panhandles,
bringing a relief in temperatures over the next few days. Areas to
the north today that are expected be near or slightly above 100,
will only be in the mid 70s to lower 80s on Friday. Areas to the
south are expected to be in the 80s. By Saturday, Sunday, and
possibly Monday, all areas will be in the mid 70s and may even
struggle to reach 80. Showers and storms will still be possible
over the weekend, and with high PWAT values over 1.2" for most of
the Panhandles, moderate to heavy rain will be possible. Also with
little upper level support to move these storms, they will likely
be slow moving in nature and could pose a moderate to heavy rain
threat, with flooding issue possible.

By mid next week the high pressure will begin to be suppressed by
an upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest. This will set
up more of a zonal flow for the area. With H850 temps around
30-33C and possible downslope adiabatic warming, very warm to hot
temperatures are expected to return by next Wednesday. For now
showers and thunderstorms don`t look too favorable on Wednesday,
or Thursday, but we`ll keep an eye on things to see if they trend
differently, or if subtle impulses and the dryline retreats far
enough west to allow for storms.


18Z Issuance...VFR conditions will lower this evening as storms go
through the area. Storms are expected to progress from northwest
to southeast between 23Z and 06Z. Ceilings will recover a bit and
winds will calm slightly after storms pass before a cold front
pushes through and causes winds to ramp up with gusts up to 40kts
and ceilings to drop to possibly MVFR or lower. Confidence on
ceiling heights is kind of low, but could go lower than tafs.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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