Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 031802 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
102 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
KGUY...SO HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCTS THERE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS...COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEFLY LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORIES DEVELOP. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT ALL SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF ANY
CONVECTION. BRIEF...LOCALIZED IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL LATE MORNING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO
15KTS AND MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SPOTTY ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS.

ELSENHEIMER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME SEMBLANCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE. THIS PATTERN...COUPLED WITH LEFTOVER SFC BOUNDARIES FROM
LAST NIGHTS AND THIS MORNINGS TSTMS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLD
TO SCT TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO AND
NERN NM...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRACK INTO OUR FCST AREA. ALSO...THERE
COULD BE SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE OK AND TX PNHDLS AS WELL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THIS FCST PKG.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLD TSTMS SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
IT APPEARS MOST OF INDEPENDENCE DAY AND NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. DITTO FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND WERE
ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND
EWD TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY FROM NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15




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