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000
FXUS64 KAMA 140512
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1212 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SHIFTING WINDS AROUND
THE DIAL DUE TO A COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE FRONT
WILL FIRST CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT KGUY AND KDHT BETWEEN
09Z AND 11Z BEFORE REACHING KAMA AROUND 14Z. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS. BY THE AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THEY CONTINUE TO ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND
THE DIAL BEFORE ENDING THIS TAF ISSUANCE FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z BEFORE A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BETWEEN 10Z-14Z BRINGING NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30KTS AGAIN.

KNS

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014/

THROUGH TONIGHT: SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 11 AM
WITH BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR 60 IN THE
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHEAST. OUR FIRST STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH
THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. THEREFORE, WE REMOVED POPS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, AND TRIMMED THEM TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO, WE ADJUSTED ADDED RAIN CHANCES FARTHER NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHWARD TREND OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: ONCE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS EAST INTO OKLAHOMA, A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. SHOWERS AND A STORM OR
TWO WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF A VEGA TO LIPSCOMB LINE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT,
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THAT`S ALSO WHEN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN
INCREASING THANKS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 100-KT UPPER JET, AND A STRONG COLD FRONT BARRELING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 3 PM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES, AND
STEADILY MOVE SOUTHEAST. WE CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT A WIND GUST UP TO 45
MPH UNDERNEATH THE STRONGEST STORM BEFORE 7 PM. AFTER 7 PM,
INSTABILITY WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM AS STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
IMPINGES ON THE AREA. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE BEST QPF
SIGNAL BECAUSE THE STRONGEST FORCING REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR IN
BETWEEN THESE AREAS (I.E. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE), WHICH INCLUDES AMARILLO. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BEGIN ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT ONCE THE COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA, THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED. THEREFORE,
WE`VE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SNOW FOR NOW, BUT IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS
DOWN ANY, WE MAY HAVE TO ADD A MENTION OF SNOW AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST.

THE OTHER THING TO WATCH OUT FOR WILL BE POST-FRONTAL WINDS, AND THEY
LOOK TO BE HOWLING AGAIN. IN FACT, A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN SHOW SOME PLACES IN
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES POTENTIALLY SEEING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA.
HOWEVER, 3-HR PRESSURE RISES DON`T LOOK QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY
DID ON TUESDAY NIGHT, SO HOPEFULLY THAT WILL KEEP WINDS FROM GETTING
TOO OUT OF CONTROL. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO, MORE BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE 10 AM, BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY LOOKS WINDY, COOLER, AND DRY. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S
AREA WIDE.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST, BUT WE`LL HAVE TO
WATCH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES,
CONFIDENCE ON TUESDAY IS LOW. IF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND GEM COME TO
FRUITION, THERE MIGHT BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PANHANDLES ALONG WITH A MORE IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. REGARDLESS, IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
BE ANOTHER WINDY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
REMAIN BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT. EAST NORTHEASTERLY 20-FOOT WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
SLIGHTLY LOWER, A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO STRONG...GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP
BELOW 20 PERCENT ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER BOUT OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT IF IT WERE TO
OCCUR, THE WESTERN PANHANDLES APPEAR TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATION TO SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MARGINAL ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
ON MONDAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03