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000
FXUS64 KAMA 221148
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
648 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 12z TAFs...
Most convection occurring at this time currently lies east of all
terminals.  Additional showers and thunderstorms expected today
due to shortwave trof which will move through the forecast area in
northwest flow.  Occasional MVFR ceilings expected today and this
evening, with threat of more thunderstorms.  Stronger cold front
arrives late tonight, with northwest surface winds gusting to
around 25 kt.  Improving conditions expected to follow frontal
passage.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 348 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Showers continue pushing eastward across the northern half of the
area early this morning. The showers are associated with an upper
level trough that is nearing the area. As the trough gets closer,
showers will continue to spread southward through the Panhandles.
An associated cold front will speed through the area today as well
and will swing winds to the north starting late this morning for
northern areas and make it through the southern CWA by mid
afternoon. The reinforcing colder air will cause winds Tuesday to
pickup and be a bit breezy. Cloud cover should remain in place
through today and into tomorrow; thus inhibiting too much warming.
However, the upper level forcing looks to be enough to allow for
some storms to become strong to severe today. MUCAPE is meager,
mid-level lapse rates are steep, and DCAPE is good. This combine
with 30 to 45 kts of 0-6km bulk shear will mean the main threats
look to be large hail and damaging winds. The stronger storms will
be diurnally driven, so the severe threat should come to a close
with sunset. Showers will continue behind the front into Tuesday
but look to lack in thermodynamics and will likely be general rain
showers.

Upper level ridging begins to build into the western CONUS and
puts the Panhandles in northwest flow aloft. With little moisture
to work with, the mountains in New Mexico will have little to turn
into storms that can reach us; thus leaving the Panhandles dry
until the end of the workweek when the next upper level trough
approaches the area and can bring another chance for precip and
another cold front.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                70  47  67  45  81 /  60  50  30   5   0
Beaver OK                  68  47  68  43  78 /  60  30  10   5   0
Boise City OK              68  44  65  42  79 /  30  40  10   0   0
Borger TX                  71  50  70  48  82 /  60  40  20   5   0
Boys Ranch TX              72  48  69  45  82 /  60  50  20   5   0
Canyon TX                  70  47  69  44  81 /  60  50  30   5   0
Clarendon TX               70  51  69  48  82 /  60  40  30   5   0
Dalhart TX                 70  47  68  42  81 /  40  50  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  70  48  68  44  80 /  50  40  10   0   0
Hereford TX                71  47  68  44  81 /  60  50  30   5   0
Lipscomb TX                68  48  69  43  78 /  70  30  20   5   0
Pampa TX                   68  49  66  43  79 /  70  40  30   5   0
Shamrock TX                69  52  69  47  81 /  60  40  30   5   0
Wellington TX              71  53  71  48  83 /  60  30  30   5   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/16