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000
FXUS64 KAMA 131928
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
228 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The flow in the mid and upper levels will become a little more
northwesterly in the wake of a short wave trough moving through the
western Great Lakes this afternoon. This northwest flow will provide
increased directional shear as southerly winds on the surface veer
around to the northwest in the mid levels. Also a mid level
disturbance will move southeast in the northwest flow aloft and this
should help to get organized showers and thunderstorms going off of
the Colorado and New Mexico mountains. This activity is expected to
develop into and MCS which is then expected to move southeast across
the panhandles tonight. At this point, it looks like the western
panhandles will have the best chance of rain given the track of the
upper level disturbance. Some storms may become severe with large
hail and damaging winds the main threat. Localized flooding will
also be possible as these storms may be efficient rain producers
given all of the low level moisture.  The 12z sounding from AMA
showed an inversion near 500 MB with a well mixed layer above
that. But, it looks like this layer will get eroded as the upper
level disturbance approaches this evening.

As the flow aloft transitions from northwest to west and southwest
Monday and Tuesday, our rain chances decrease some. Then our area
may actually have a couple of dry days before the flow becomes
northwesterly again by Friday night into next weekend. This will
allow mountain convection to move this way once again.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonal for much of this week after
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                61  86  65  90  65 /  90  20  40  20  20
Beaver OK                  65  91  68  96  68 /  30  20  40  20  30
Boise City OK              59  85  63  89  62 /  60  20  40  20  20
Borger TX                  67  89  69  93  70 /  70  20  40  20  20
Boys Ranch TX              63  88  67  93  65 /  90  20  40  20  20
Canyon TX                  61  87  64  89  64 /  90  20  40  20  20
Clarendon TX               62  87  67  90  68 /  70  30  40  20  30
Dalhart TX                 62  86  65  93  64 / 100  20  40  20  20
Guymon OK                  65  89  67  94  66 /  40  20  40  20  20
Hereford TX                63  87  66  90  65 / 100  20  40  20  20
Lipscomb TX                67  90  69  94  70 /  40  30  40  20  30
Pampa TX                   66  89  68  92  69 /  50  20  40  20  20
Shamrock TX                67  89  69  92  70 /  60  30  40  20  30
Wellington TX              68  91  69  92  71 /  60  30  40  20  30

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

24/15