Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 261138

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
638 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

12Z TAFS...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Winds
will vary across the Oklahoma and northern portions of the Texas
Panhandle this morning, but eventually become south to southwesterly
everywhere by early afternoon. Gusts near 25 to 35kts are likely,
and isolated thunderstorms are possible but mainly east of KAMA and
KGUY. Gusts will subside this evening, but sustained winds will stay
near 10 to 15kts overnight tonight.



.Prev Discussion... /Issued 507 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

For today and tonight, the upper level low pressure system currently
over central Arizona will head ene into nrn NM and srn CO by late
this afternoon, then towards ern CO and wrn KS by 12Z Friday. As
this occurs, the sfc pressure gradient will tighten today in advance
of a cold front. SW winds will ramp up by late this morning and
continue through the afternoon hours. These winds will help send the
dryline to near the TX and OK state line by late this afternoon. Have
trimmed pops to only include the far ern tier of counties for this
afternoon in the event isold storms manage to develop in this area
before quickly movg into OK. If a few storms form, they will have the
potential to become svr briefly before crossing the state line into
OK, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards.
Otherwise, dry weather will prevail for most of the fcst area through

For Friday and Friday night, the upper level low pressure system is
progged to track newd across KS and NE. The corresponding sfc cold
front will move sewd thru the fcst area durg the daylight hours.
Their could be enuf moisture pooling behind the boundary plus some
minor wraparound moisture to support low pops for showers and tstms
over the OK Pnhdl and far nrn TX Pnhdl Friday. Non-mentionable pops
seem ok for Friday night through Saturday night areawide.

For Sunday through Wednesday, the threat for showers and tstms
increases and persists for most of the area as some semblance of
weaker upper level troffing continues over the swrn US. Hard to time
minor impulses emanating from this general weak upper level swrn US
trof suggests varying degrees of pop values for the fcst area durg
this time period. Based on latest medium range models, it does appear
that by the end of this fcst cycle, an upper level ridge of high
pressure will develop over the intermountain west, which could
disrupt the persistent upper level troffing that has been the case
across the west and southwest US for some time now.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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