Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 232316
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
616 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to start off the 00Z TAF cycle. Forecast confidence
will be low due to the possibility of convection at the terminals
after 10Z through the end of this forecast cycle. Have inserted
PROB30 groups to KAMA and KDHT to cover possibility of convection
impacting the terminals. General thinking is that convection will
initially start across the far southern and western Panhandles
tomorrow morning before spreading across the Panhandles throughout
the day. There is a possibility of convection affecting KAMA
during the early morning hours but confidence was too low to
mention in prevailing. KGUY may not be affect by convection until
after 00Z Sunday. Should convection impact the terminals directly
then low ceiling/visibility and gusty variable winds.

Outside of convection, winds will generally become light and
variable after 03Z through the overnight hours. Winds will become
southerly and increase to 12kt to 15kt around 18Z Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 454 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Negative tilted upper level high pressure system to the west will
continue to work east and become more north/south oriented by
Monday night as it sets up over the four corners region. Large
scale surface high will continue to move southeast across the
central CONUS over the weekend. By Sunday evening it looks to be
centered over the Missouri area, and warm moist low level air
will return to the entire Panhandles. The southwest area could see
some good moisture return as early as Saturday night, with
smaller surface high expected to cross the northeast Panhandles
Saturday morning. Otherwise, most of the low level moisture will
remain south of the Panhandles, giving most of our chances for
showers/storms across the western and southern TX Panhandle.

In addition to keeping low level moisture to the south, the
cooler air from the north will keep the area below normal for
daytime highs on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Right now highs on
Saturday look to be in the low to mid 70s, with maybe a few areas
to the northeast in the mid to upper 70s. It`s possible the a new
record lowest high temperature could occur at one of our climate
sites, as some guidance is suggesting that some areas could
struggle to reach 70. Have not gone this aggressively cool as it`s
an outlier to the mean. Also, today`s highs have come in a little
warmer than expected as well. This occurring, even with the
breezy north winds today, leads me to have lower confidence that
it will be that cool tomorrow.

Saturday, the area will still be under northwest flow and there
is still enough moisture at the 700H level that showers and storms
could develop to the west and track southeast into the
Panhandles. Hence the chance POPS to the west and slight chance
POPS to the east. Saturday night moisture will start to slowly
work its way into the southwest Panhandles. At this point POPS
have been increased into the likely category and moderate rain
with some of the storms has been noted. PWAT values Saturday night
range 1.3 - 1.5 inches over the southwestern Panhandles
supporting the potential for moderate rain. In addition, 0-6km
shear in the 20-30kt range supports some slower moving storms. As
the surface flow shifts more southerly on Sunday temperatures will
begin to warm, but highs may still struggle to reach 80. The
potential for moderate rain, especially over the west will
continue through Monday evening.

By Tuesday high pressure over the four corners region will begin
to be suppressed by an upper level trough moving down from British
Columbia. This will provide a more zonal flow to the area. Warmer
and drier conditions are expected, but have still kept a slight
chance of POPS through Tuesday night. 850H temps on Wednesday and
Thursday could return back into the +30C range, leading to
widespread 90s to possible low 100`s again for the Panhandles.
Dryline looks to possibly set up east of Amarillo leading to
strong inverted V soundings up to 550H. Model soundings indicated
possibly uncapped but very low CAPE values above the LCL. East of
the dryline where the temperatures will still be very warm/hot, models
hint at a 700H capped warm nose, inhibiting convection. However,
with the upper level trough axis moving over the Rockies on
Thursday models do hint at some forcing that could overcome the
cap and therefore have noted a slight chance of storms to the east
on Thursday.

Weber

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

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