Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 140509

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1209 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

06Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 06Z
Sunday. A few showers or thunderstorms could possibly affect the
Guymon and Amarillo TAF sites between 06Z Saturday and 10Z
Saturday, otherwise no precipitation is expected through the TAF
forecast period. South and southwest winds 5 to 15 knots will
increase to around 10 to 20 knots and 15 to 25 knots with gusts
near 30 knots after 14Z to 16Z Saturday. Winds will shift to the
north at the Guymon and Dalhart TAF sites around 22Z Saturday and
00Z Sunday and will increase to around 20 to 30 knots with gusts
near 35 to 40 knots. At the Amarillo TAF site, winds will shift to
the north around 01Z to 03Z Sunday and will increase to 20 to 30
knots with gusts near 35 to 40 knots.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 651 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/

00z TAF Cycle:

VFR cigs/vsbys expected through period with the exception of some
brief reductions due to isolated thunderstorms through the
evening hours. As of 2340z, a few showers and storms were
developing around Canyon to east of Hereford and moving northeast.
Additional development will be possible through the next 6 hours
or so given increasing surface moisture and weak disturbance
aloft. Included tempo groups for KAMA and KGUY where confidence
for -TSRA was higher. Otherwise, storm activity should decrease
after 06z with lingering mid level clouds. Winds will gradually
shift to the southwest through the night and become gusty during
the afternoon Saturday. A fairly strong cold front will enter the
northern zones including KGUY towards the end of the period.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 301 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/

A cold front has slowly pushed into the area today and will back
up tonight. A shortwave is pushing northeast through New Mexico
right now and will bring the Panhandles a chance for storms
tonight. CAMs and short term models suggest precip will start in
the southwest and stream northeast. There is plenty of shear and
moisture available tonight; however CAPE is very meager, so not
expecting widespread severe weather. As the front surges back to
the south tomorrow, precip chances continue, mainly in the eastern
and southeastern sections. With slightly better CAPE profiles
tomorrow, some storms may become strong to marginally severe, but
don`t expect severe weather as cloud cover will limit instability.
Winds behind the front will be strong and allow gusts up to 45 to
50 mph overnight for a small window if the winds mix down and
cause cold air to filter back into the Panhandles. Cimarron
County may experience freezing temps again, but have held off on a
freeze watch for now as it doesn`t look like the freezing temps
will hit even half of the county. This will also cause temps
Sunday to be 15 to 20 degrees colder than Saturday. The beginning
of the workweek will start warming back up and we will remain dry
the rest of the week with typical fall temps.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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