403
FXUS64 KAMA 070538
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1238 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Low chance for severe thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday.
Damaging winds and hail are the primary hazards.

Daily precipitation chances take a break on Wednesday and
possibly Thursday, but should resume again later in the week. High
temperatures remain in the 80`s and 90`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Tonight, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are in
progress and will affect the combined Panhandles through the
evening. Now through 12 AM, scattered thunderstorms are present in
the SW and NE zones of our CWA. This activity is sub severe, and
should remain that way as it continues to follow the mean storm
flow southward. The only notable hazard is lightning. Later
tonight, another wave of thunderstorms are forecast to move in
from Colorado and Kansas. The current storm motion of the storms
north of our CWA is southeasterly; however, a surface high west of
the Panhandles will steer the storm motion further to the south.
With this trajectory, these storms are progged to impact the
eastern Panhandles very early this morning. That said, some recent
CAMs, like the 02Z HRRR,show storms dissipating before arrive to
the area. In either scenario, or something in between, storms have
a low chance of becoming severe. Damaging winds would be the
primary hazard. Flooding is not as much of a concern this evening
considering storms should move faster tonight and being less
efficient at producing high amounts of rainfall due to the lower
moisture quality present tonight.

Today, short range guidance suggests high quality moisture and
higher instability returns to the region this afternoon. This will
promote isolated thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Later towards
the evening, a line of thunderstorms will move out of New Mexico and
move through the western Panhandles. The forecast near storm
environment still supports damaging winds as the primary hazard, but
with greater than -7 degrees Celsius 500 mb temperatures, large hail
will also be a threat.

Tuesday, thunderstorms chances decrease but a slight chance is still
present for the southern Texas Panhandle. A low end severe threat is
still present, but this threat could be eliminated if the environment
is too worked over from Monday`s event.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Northwest flow takes a bit of a break at the start of the extended
period, as heights expand over the CWA on Wednesday and Thursday. By
Friday, we should see the weak H500 high expand further to the west
as another upper level trough prepares to dig southward into
northern portions of our region. Then by next weekend, northwest
flow should fully resume.

As mentioned in previous forecasts, a lull in PoPs is anticipated on
Wednesday and Thursday. These drier conditions and southwesterly
surface winds will also promote warmer temperatures then what we`ve
experienced so far this month. Highs should range in the mid to
upper 90`s on both days. While triple digit heat has a low chance of
manifesting at this time, it cannot be ruled out for certain sites.
Precipitation returns to the long term period by Friday and daily
thunderstorm chances will carry on until the end of the extended.
High temperatures will decrease back down to the upper 80`s and
lower 90`s range.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Thunderstorms are expected at GUY soon this morning. Currently,
they are staying in the vicinity of the TAF site, but additional
development is expected to move through close to the 09Z hour.
This activity may last for an hour or so, and then quickly move
out. Thunderstorm chances return to the Panhandles later today in
the afternoon. Storms are expected to last into the overnight
period once again and should affect DHT and GUY. Thunderstorms may
also affect AMA close to the end of the TAF period, but
confidence is not high enough to make any mentions in tonight`s
TAFs.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55