Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 191740 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1140 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

For the 18Z TAFs, an upper level storm system will move across the
srn and cntrl high plains this afternoon. Any precipitation that
forms should occur east of the terminal sites. Surface winds will
increase this afternoon, then diminish by early this evening. A
cold front is then forecast to move across the TAF sites Monday
morning, with northwest to north winds in its wake.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 525 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

For the 12z TAFs...areas of fog will persist until around 16z over
the eastern half of the forecast area, with direct impacts
expected at AMA and GUY.  Great variability in visibility has
been noted during the past few hours, so certainty in timing of
near-term changes is low.  Expect that all terminals will rise to
VFR conditions by 16z as low-level winds become less easterly.

Low chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be
confined to eastern parts of forecast area, with any development
expected to remain east of all terminals.  Drier low-level air
arrives this afternoon and evening, with no low clouds or fog
expected during the last half of the forecast.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

Advection fog is developing this morning as moisture streams in
from the southeast allowing dewpoints to rise. The fog looks to
stick around through mid-morning, especially for eastern portions
of the Panhandles, when winds will turn slightly towards the
south and decrease the magnitude of upslope flow.

The upper level low is located in southwestern Arizona this
morning and is expected to track towards the 4 corners. Hi-res
CAMs indicate the chance for thunderstorms in the area this
afternoon is slim. The eastern Panhandles still look to have the
best chance but models continue to cut off the western extent of
the likely area. SPC has now dropped the slight risk area from the
Panhandles because of this; leaving the area in general
thunderstorm. Forecast soundings look anemic in the instability
department. The possibility for any thunderstorms to even become
marginally severe is looking more difficult to achieve. Have
lowered pops and cut back on the extent but wouldn`t be surprised
if more trimming happens this afternoon as more Hi-res models get

As the upper level low opens up as it crosses the area, the region
will be placed in northwest flow. Mid-level heights begin to rise
and downsloping will aid in bringing surface temps up into the 70s
and 80s through mid-week. On Thursday a mid level jet approaches
the area and brings gusty winds down to the surface. This combined
with the high temps and low RH values will create fire weather
concerns. A wind advisory also looks like it may be needed. Winds
may stay strong through Thursday evening ahead of the next big
cold front as a surface low pressure system develops in the lee of
the Rockies and pushes out across the Plains.


RH values look to remain between 15 and 20 percent through most of
the week. The concern will thus fall to days that have the chance
for winds to increase. Monday looks to have elevated fire weather
concerns in the northwestern sections. The biggest day for concern
is Thursday as winds become gusty and RH values in some areas may
fall to around 12 percent. A wind advisory may be needed that day.
Most of the Panhandles could be in critical conditions with the
remaining areas in elevated. Winds could remain strong through the
evening hours ahead of a cold front.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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