Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 251101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
601 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

12Z TAF Cycle

MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through
12Z Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will affect the three TAF
sites through the TAF forecast period with some LIFR conditions
possible in and near the showers and storms. Southeast winds 5 to
15 knots will become east and northeast and then north 10 to 20
knots or even 15 to 25 knots with some higher gusts after 00Z to
06Z Tuesday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 452 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/


This forecast package can be summed up as rainy, cloudy, and on the
cool side for temps this time of year. Every period going forward
has precipitation chances. Temperatures really take a downward trend
the next few days getting into the lower 60s for highs by Wednesday.
In fact, outside of todays highs, we officially don`t have 70s in
the forecast again until Friday, but even then its for a small area.
Next weekend looks to be the next shot at widespread 70s across the
forecast area. Its going to be very cloudy going forward...hence the
cooler temps and rain chances every period. High temperatures will
be much below normal...around 10 to 15 degrees below in some cases
over the next several days.

GFS ensemble mean for precipitation over a 12 hour period for both
0.10" and 0.30" of rainfall has a very high chance of occurrence if
you "believe" the GFS. The NAM and European both have similar
signals for QPF chances within the forecast area so these chances
seem reasonable from the GFS. The forecast for today/tonight has
widespread 70-80 percent chances with forecast QPF values over one
inch approaching 2 inches in some areas through the next 24 hours,
especially our central and eastern zones where the higher amounts
are forecast. Central and especially eastern parts of the forecast
area have very high (90th percentile) precipitable water values
around 1.50" or greater, so the atmosphere has a lot of potential
moisture to work with. Fortunately, our eastern half received the
least amount of rainfall from earlier thunderstorms this past
weekend, and hence why we did not hoist a flood watch. That being
said, flooding is not completely out of the questions, but these
areas are likely not saturated from lack of rainfall from previous
events. Localized flooding and flash flooding will be possible
within the stronger thunderstorm environments. Severe weather is on
the very low end today/tonight due to weak mid level lapse rates and
weak instability. In fact, this looks to be the case through
Wednesday, with little chances for severe weather especially
tomorrow and Wednesday. The main threats over the next several days
will be potential flooding as severe weather seems less likely.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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