Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 011744
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1144 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS...LIFR CONDITIONS AT KAMA SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AS CEILINGS GRADUALLY INCREASE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING KGUY. CEILINGS AT KGUY SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOWER TO IFR
AGAIN THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND REMNANT
SNOW COVER OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL FOG/FREEZING FOG CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN. THERE APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITY OF LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT ALL THREE SITES LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF LIFR CATEGORY SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. GREATEST
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE AT KAMA AND KDHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND MAKE
NECESSARY AMENDMENTS BASED ON TRENDS.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS RETAINS ITS HOLD ON THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  AREAS OF FREEZING FOG EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM.  SOME SLOW MODIFICATION OF THIS AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON.

ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER TONIGHT.  WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ACT TO KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.  WITH NO STRONG
DYNAMICS EXPECTED TONIGHT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE CALLED FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY HAVE BEEN RETAINED.  WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF A QUICK-MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE REMOVED MONDAY NIGHT POPS DUE TO EXPECTED LOSS OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING HAS BEEN SPED UP
SLIGHTLY.  HAVE LOWERED MAXIMA SLIGHTLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...BUT
TUESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WARMER OWING TO EXPECTED INSOLATION.

LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW HAVE BEEN KEPT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  RAPID CLEARING ALLOWS FOR WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE
THURSDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/02




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.