Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 271147
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
647 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.AVIATION...
For 12z TAFs...VFR cigs/vsbys expected at all TAF sites today
except for local MVFR/IFR with any storms that develop mainly
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Went ahead with prob30
groups for scattered thunderstorm development at all TAF sites.
Not confident enough in exact timing or location to include tempo
groups at this time.

WARD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 503 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The wet pattern will continue across the srn high plains for much of
this fcst cycle. All short and medium range models suggest a
continuation of moisture streaming into the TX and OK Panhandles
into the middle of next week. In addition, minor shortwave trofs
embedded in the overall upper level flow pattern coupled with some
daytime heating and attendant atmospheric instability suggests pops
at least in the slgt chc to chc categories are warranted beginning
this afternoon and continuing thru Thursday. Both the 00Z GFS and 00Z
ECMWF are in general agreement for most of this 7 day forecast
period and were accepted. Have tailored pops and temperatures around
a combination of the 00Z ECMWF and 00Z GFS model output in the short
and medium range periods.

Andrade

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                86  63  85  63  83 /  30  30  30  40  40
Beaver OK                  88  65  89  64  87 /  20  30  30  20  30
Boise City OK              85  60  85  60  82 /  30  30  30  40  30
Borger TX                  89  66  87  66  85 /  20  30  30  40  40
Boys Ranch TX              87  62  86  61  84 /  30  30  30  40  40
Canyon TX                  86  62  85  62  83 /  30  30  30  40  40
Clarendon TX               88  65  87  65  85 /  20  20  30  30  30
Dalhart TX                 87  60  86  61  83 /  30  30  30  40  40
Guymon OK                  89  63  89  63  85 /  30  30  30  40  30
Hereford TX                86  61  84  61  82 /  30  30  30  40  40
Lipscomb TX                88  66  88  64  87 /  20  30  30  20  30
Pampa TX                   87  64  87  64  85 /  20  20  30  30  30
Shamrock TX                88  66  88  66  86 /  20  20  30  20  30
Wellington TX              90  68  88  67  87 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

7/2


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