Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 241754 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1254 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

For the 18Z TAFs, expect sct showers and tstms to redevelop across
the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles this afternoon and
tonight, with isold showers and tstms anticipated over the southern
Texas Panhandle. With greatest coverage of precipitation forecast to
be across northern sections, have included a mention of -TSRA at
KGUY and KDHT later this afternoon and tonight. With only isold
coverage foreseen across the srn Texas Panhandle, have opted to omit
-TSRA at KAMA for this issuance.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 651 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

Overnight convection is diminishing in intensity and moving away from
KGUY and KAMA.  Weak wind shift line with pre-frontal surface trof
moving in from the northwest is also losing its punch.  Still,
expect light northwest surface winds to prevail this morning at
northern terminals.  Mid- and high-level clouds will remain well
into VFR range.  Stronger buoyancy and shear at northern terminals
expected to support scattered late afternoon and evening high-based
thunderstorms.  Southeast surface winds expected to resume this
afternoon as deep mixing occurs.  Will forecast northerly surface
winds late this evening as any outflow from storms to the north
should help re-establish surface boundary.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 413 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

The upper level pattern is beginning to transition into zonal flow.
However, today will still see the ridge extending into the area. An
upper level shortwave riding around the ridge set off a storm complex
that is currently in western KS. For the Panhandles, a boundary has
set up over the area and runs from southwest to northeast, from
halfway between Dalhart and Dumas to halfway between Liberal, KS and
Beaver, OK. Showers and thunderstorms have continued forming through
the night along this boundary and are expected to linger through the
morning until the complex in KS moves far enough east. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon through
overnight again as a frontal boundary remains quasi-stationary in
southern KS and creates a focus for storm development.

A shortwave trough will move through the Great Plains Monday and
bring the week`s best chances for widespread showers and
thunderstorms to develop. Any leftover boundaries will serve as a
focus for storm development on Tuesday. By mid-week, another
shortwave moves through the area as the upper level pattern begins to
transition into ridging over the West Coast and troughing in the
Central Plains. With the shortwave and northwest flow, the area will
see its second best shot of widespread storms Wednesday. The tail end
of the work week will still have chances for storm development from mountain
convection as well as any leftover boundaries which may serve as
focus points. Temps should be moderated back closer to climo after
today with the extra cloud cover around.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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