Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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852
FXUS64 KAMA 262108
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
408 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.Discussion...
A broad area of high pressure covers the southern half of the conus
with a small low pressure center over southwest Texas. This low
pressure will continue bringing moisture into the Panhandles. A mid-
level shortwave in conjunction with 1500 J of mixed layer CAPE and
decent mid-level lapse rates, has allowed convection to initiate this
afternoon. With PWAT values above the 90th percentile for this time
have allowed these storms to be efficient rain producers and bring
some small hail. These storms are expected to continue generating and
moving northward through the evening. Storms are expected to remain
below severe or briefly become severe as the storms will be somewhat
pulse in nature.

Models vary each day in the eastward extent of the high pressure
center, with the NAM being the most limited in extent. Shortwaves
will ripple through the middle of the conus which will bring enough
instability each day to set off mountain convection as well as
initiate random storms over the area. By Tuesday, a pattern of
ridging in the west and troughing in the east will start building.
This will bring northwest flow to the region, allowing mountain
convection to be pushed into our area. Shear will begin increasing a
bit as the pattern takes hold. Storms that form each day should
remain below severe levels, or briefly become severe, with damaging
winds and localized flooding being the main threats. By week`s end,
high pressure is progged to slide east over Texas.

Beat

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                65  89  67  89  66 /  40  30  30  20  10
Beaver OK                  67  93  66  90  68 /  40  20  40  20  20
Boise City OK              62  89  63  88  63 /  30  10  30  10  10
Borger TX                  68  92  69  91  69 /  40  30  40  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              65  91  67  91  67 /  40  20  20  20  10
Canyon TX                  64  90  66  90  66 /  30  30  30  30  10
Clarendon TX               67  90  68  90  67 /  30  30  40  30  10
Dalhart TX                 63  90  65  90  64 /  40  20  30  20  10
Guymon OK                  66  92  66  91  67 /  30  20  40  20  10
Hereford TX                64  89  66  90  65 /  40  30  20  30  10
Lipscomb TX                67  92  66  90  68 /  50  20  40  20  20
Pampa TX                   66  90  67  89  67 /  40  30  40  20  10
Shamrock TX                68  92  68  91  68 /  30  20  40  20  10
Wellington TX              70  94  70  93  69 /  30  20  40  30  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/16



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