Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 212135
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
435 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK FOR
PORTIONS OF TX/OK PANHANDLES AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDE AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE. WITH CLOUD COVER AND DECENT MOISTURE AROUND THE
PANHANDLES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL MOST
DAYS. SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NF

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 10 PM AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/MAYBE A STORM COULD POP UP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT, BUT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS WON`T GET LOW ENOUGH FOR FOG FORMATION, EVEN ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORABLE.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: LOW CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW MORNING ON THE CAPROCK, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AS AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, STRENGTHENING CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS, SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE INTO THE 10
TO 20 MPH RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SNEAK
INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WEST OF A GUYMON TO HEREFORD LINE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENINGS HOURS. OWING TO MINIMAL SOLAR RADIATION IN THESE
AREAS TOMORROW, INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY SEVERE
STORMS. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THEY WILL BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NEGLIGIBLE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITH
BREEZIER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LESS CLOUDS, HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES
AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL LIFT THE POLAR JET NORTHWARD AND POTENTIALLY CUT
OFF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS
ACTUALLY SUGGEST THIS TROUGH RETROGRADING SOUTHWEST. EVEN IF THIS
DOESN`T HAPPEN, ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS OVER MORE
REAL ESTATE OF THE PANHANDLES. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES UP TO 30 KT AND MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES INCREASE UP TO
1500 J/KG. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BEGIN
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

JACKSON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT FOR POSSIBLE
RETROGRADING SHORTWAVE TO BRING LATE WEEK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST...A DEEPER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS OVER NEXT WEEKEND AND MAY CUT OFF BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH/SPEED
OF THIS SHORTWAVE...COULD SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

NF

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                56  73  57  79  59 /  20  10  20  20  10
BEAVER OK                  53  78  57  84  62 /   0  10  30  20  40
BOISE CITY OK              53  72  58  83  57 /   5  30  30  10  10
BORGER TX                  57  77  61  82  62 /  10  10  30  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              57  74  58  82  59 /  20  30  30  20  10
CANYON TX                  57  73  57  79  59 /  30  10  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               59  76  58  80  59 /  30   5  10  20  20
DALHART TX                 55  73  58  81  57 /  20  30  30  10  10
GUYMON OK                  54  77  58  84  60 /   0  20  30  20  30
HEREFORD TX                56  72  55  79  58 /  40  20  30  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                54  78  57  81  61 /   0   5  20  20  30
PAMPA TX                   54  75  58  79  60 /   5   5  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                54  78  57  80  60 /  20   5  10  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              59  80  56  82  61 /  30   5  10  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/06





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