Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 282051
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
351 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Quite a stagnant weather pattern that will set up as we go
throughout the week toward next weekend. Across the northern
CONUS into Canada, a building ridge throughout the center of the
aforementioned areas with coastal upper level lows in the
northwest Pacific and over James Bay. As a result, this will
provide a stale 500-250 hPa wind flow over the southern CONUS and
west Texas with some of the 28/12Z model and probabilistic
guidance hinting at weak upper level low perturbations developing
over the high terrain of Colorado and New Mexico. With an upper
level high over the western Gulf drifting east throughout the
week, this will establish a south and southeasterly flow. Although
weak, it will bring moisture into the region with some of the
latest GEFS/SREF PWAT anomalies of +1 to +2 S.D. over the
Panhandles. Best chances of showers and storms will be across the
western areas on Monday and then across the entire region
throughout the remainder of the week. By the up and coming
weekend, precipitation chances will decrease and be more limited
to the eastern Panhandles as the main upper level high in the Gulf
shifts well to the east toward the Atlantic in-conjunction with
the northern stream block beginning to decompose by next weekend.
With little to no upper level dynamics, storms that develop will
likely be diurnally driven. Model QPF do vary as expected with
isolated to scattered convection with updates to the forecast as
CAMs and other hi-res models begin to ingest the latest data.
Temperatures will be near average throughout the forecast period.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                51  82  55  82  58 /   5  10   5  10  20
Beaver OK                  50  83  54  84  57 /   0  10  10  10  20
Boise City OK              48  78  50  80  53 /   5  20  20  20  30
Borger TX                  55  85  57  84  61 /   0  10  10  10  20
Boys Ranch TX              50  83  54  82  58 /   5  20  10  20  20
Canyon TX                  51  83  54  83  57 /   5  10   5  10  20
Clarendon TX               53  84  58  83  60 /   5   5   5  10  20
Dalhart TX                 48  80  52  81  55 /   5  20  20  20  30
Guymon OK                  50  82  54  83  56 /   0  10  10  20  20
Hereford TX                50  81  53  82  57 /   5  20   5  20  20
Lipscomb TX                50  85  55  83  59 /   0   5  10  10  20
Pampa TX                   51  82  54  80  58 /   0   5   5  10  20
Shamrock TX                53  86  56  85  61 /   5   0   5  10  20
Wellington TX              55  87  57  86  62 /   5   0   5  10  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/29



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