Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 222327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
627 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

00Z VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with south
winds around 10kts expected overnight. Winds will become west, then
northwesterly early Sunday morning and increase to around 10 to
15kts with maybe an occasional gust. Winds will most likely favor a
northeasterly direction by afternoon, but will likely become more
light and variable towards the evening.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/

A ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the southern Plains
keeping large scale subsidence and dry air in place. Water vapor
imagery does show broad cyclonic flow over the Pac NW with a
strengthening jet on the upstream side. This jet will help amplify
the flow some over the next few days leading to a weak disturbance
crossing the Plains on Tuesday.

For today through Monday...well above average temperatures are
expected with generally low to mid 80s with the warmest day
expected today. A developing lee trough will continue to increase
winds from the southwest today leading to dry surface conditions
through the late afternoon hours. A more pronounced lee surface
low is expected to develop tonight in response to a subtle mid-
level trough crossing the area through Sunday. This surface low
will sink southward and weaken over the TX Panhandle Sunday
leading to reduced wind speeds across the area as they switch to a
more northerly direction. This low should also help limit max
temperatures by a couple degrees compared to Saturday. On Monday
winds will become more southeasterly as a transient shortwave
approaches the Rockies from the west. This will lead to some low
level moisture advection across the eastern zones with max
temperatures mainly in the high 70s and low 80s across the
Panhandles. Models are showing a fog signal Monday morning with
low dew point depressions and light surface winds. Will leave out
of grids for now but will be something to watch especially across
the northeast half of CWA.

As the shortwave crosses the Plains Tuesday with a weak surface
front trailing close behind...most areas will stay dry but it
looks like there may be just enough moisture along the far eastern
zones to bring a slight chance of precipitation Tuesday evening.
The model soundings do show some instability developing with
modest height falls ahead of the shortwave which may lead to a few
thunderstorms...any storm will most likely be elevated due to
robust capping inversion. upper divergence progged to
stay north of Panhandles with only weak sfc front, so looks like
forcing will be fairly limited overall.

After passage of shortwave...high pressure starts building back
into the southern Plains leading to more dry weather. Temperatures
will above average but not expecting to break any records with
highs in the 70s and low 80s through the rest of the week.

With the aforementioned lee low moving across the Panhandles
tomorrow...not expecting critical or elevated fire weather
conditions as winds are expected to be below criteria. RH should
drop into the 15 to 20 percent range during the afternoon across
western Panhandles, but should be last day of sub 20 percent
readings for at least a few days with winds also staying below
criteria into middle of next week.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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