Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 182156
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
456 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated diurnally driven storms possible this afternoon across
the Panhandles. While instability is pretty good, about 3000 J/kg
of CAPE, the modified airmass from last nights storms could make
it difficult to reach the convective temperature to get storms to
develop. If storms are able to develop they will not have as good
upper level dynamics for organization as yesterday. With bulk
shear values around 10 to 20 kts any storms that develop will
likely be pulsing in nature and slow moving, which could lead to
localized heavy rain with possible flooding in poor drainage
areas.

As we move into the weekend the upper level ridge will shift
further east and will start to transition to a more southwest
flow, and could possibly bring some convection over us from the
mountains. By Sunday and Monday an upper level low off the
southern CA coast will help to spin up more moisture to the area.
The bulk of this moisture looks to be over AZ/NM, but there is
still the possibility for storms to impact the western and
central Panhandles.

Have increased POPS on Tuesday as moisture may make it further
east over the Panhandles. We will transition from a westerly to
northwesterly flow Tuesday into Wednesday as the high begins to
rebuild over the four corners area. Thursday onward, models
diverge in solutions at this point, with one indicating a
disturbance to move through, and others suggesting that high
pressure will attempt to move back over the Panhandles limiting
the chance for active weather, whereas a more pulse convective
scenario would be favorable.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...
VFR conditions expected through period. Winds will be southerly
at 10-15 knots this afternoon decreasing to 5-10 knots overnight.
Can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two mainly in the
western Texas Panhandle late this afternoon. Confidence not high
enough to include TS mention in TAFs at this time, but amendments
may be needed based on radar/obs/sat trends.

Ward

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66  92  68  90  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
Beaver OK                  67  98  71  96  71 /  10  20  20  20  30
Boise City OK              62  91  65  88  64 /  20  20  20  20  30
Borger TX                  69  95  71  94  70 /  20  20  20  20  20
Boys Ranch TX              66  93  68  91  67 /  20  20  20  20  30
Canyon TX                  66  92  68  90  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
Clarendon TX               69  95  70  93  69 /  20  20  20  20  10
Dalhart TX                 65  92  66  88  65 /  20  20  20  20  30
Guymon OK                  66  96  68  93  68 /  10  20  20  20  30
Hereford TX                66  91  67  89  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
Lipscomb TX                69  97  72  95  72 /  20  20  20  20  20
Pampa TX                   68  93  70  92  69 /  20  20  20  20  20
Shamrock TX                70  96  72  95  70 /  20  20  20  10  10
Wellington TX              71  98  72  96  71 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/7



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