Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 222335
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
535 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...

SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD RESULTING IN VEERING WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY
MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS. A CEILING MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING OR AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR
CATEGORY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE UNLIKELY.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATE BEFORE AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUE TO REMAIN JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AS THE ONE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES AND
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN REGION BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FIRST MOVE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG
A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTING IN DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 18Z SUNDAY OR SO AND THEN FALLING TEMPS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME POST-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES EARLY SUNDAY.

NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...HOWEVER THE
MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW FOR NOW. THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL LEAVE SUNDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW. THE DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE EXPERIENCING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
EVEN BRIEFLY REACHING INTO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...GUYMON.
AS THE 20 FOOT WINDS DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ANY ELEVATED
OR MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL END. ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL COULD REACH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/09





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