Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 212314
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
614 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CLOUDS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS THIS EVENING
MAY BE ABLE TO REACH EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT KDHT AROUND 1Z BUT THINK
THEY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE CHANCE FOR MVFR STRATUS WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED AT
KDHT WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR KGUY AS CLOUDS EXPAND OUT OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AFTER 6Z. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DO FORM WILL
DISSIPATE BY 15Z. AFTER 18Z TOMORROW KAMA AND KDHT WILL HAVE A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. THE MENTION OF VCSH HAS BEEN INSERTED FOR BOTH
TERMINALS. LOWER CEILINGS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION GOES OVER
THE TERMINALS BUT WILL LEAVE FOR SHORT TERM UPDATES WHEN CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING IS HIGHER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER FAR WEST TEXAS WILL GET
CAUGHT UP IN A DEEPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THESE TROUGHS WHICH
WILL PROVIDE THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE THIS EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES WITH TIME. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO END ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE OPEN WAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER FAST SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY LATE IN THIS
FORECAST. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE STRENGTH OR TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL WAIT ON THE IDEA OF ADDING SOME PRECIP TO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/14





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