Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 282015
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
315 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Noteworthy items include the decrease in PoPs over the short-to-
midterm periods, thunderstorm chances through the extended, and warm
temperatures Thursday (especially the Palo Duro Canyon).

The pattern aloft will be zonal to northwesterly for a good portion
of this forecast package. The zonal flow with dry atmospheric
conditions (especially lower levels) will make precipitation chances
limited through at least Thursday night. Our first/best chance for
precipitation appears to be Friday night as of now. Decent
instability returns to the area on Friday along with the passage of
a cold front that morning. Overall, chances still look minimal
Friday/Friday night. In fact, through the extended there is a lot of
discrepancies between the models with regards to consistency for
precipitation (coverage/timing) across the Panhandles, so overall
confidence is low for precipitation chances in this forecast
package. Confidence is even lower for severe weather chances.
Looking at the near-term, strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
are going to be possible Friday/Friday night. Beyond this time
period, its too hard to say with any confidence for severe weather
chances. Percentage-wise, Saturday night is forecast to have the
best chance for precipitation at this time.

On Thursday, a Heat Advisory may be needed for at least the Palo
Duro Canyon area. Models which have been verifying well lately are
suggestion temperatures at or around 105 in several places.
Currently I have 108 for the canyon. Beyond Thursday, both Friday
and Saturday will be our "coolest" days in the 80s/90s, but
thereafter temperatures will easily be in the 90s across the
Panhandles.

Guerrero

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                69 102  66  89  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
Beaver OK                  71 102  67  87  61 /   0  10  10  10  10
Boise City OK              60  96  62  80  57 /   0   5  10  10  10
Borger TX                  73 105  69  90  63 /   0   0   5  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              69 105  65  91  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
Canyon TX                  67 103  63  90  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
Clarendon TX               70 102  68  92  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dalhart TX                 62 103  64  86  59 /   0   5   5  10  10
Guymon OK                  68  99  66  85  60 /   0   5  10  10  10
Hereford TX                67 104  64  92  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
Lipscomb TX                72 102  68  89  62 /   0  10  10  10  20
Pampa TX                   71 102  68  90  62 /   0   0   5  10  20
Shamrock TX                71 102  70  93  66 /   0   0   5  10  20
Wellington TX              72 102  73  95  68 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

99/99


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