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000
FXUS64 KAMA 142254 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
554 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN BLAST
THROUGH THE TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SWITCHING THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH. THERE ACTUALLY COULD BE ABOUT A 2 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE THE NORTH
WINDS RAMP UP WHERE NORTH WINDS COULD BLOW AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AT
EACH TAF SITE...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED IT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A BRIEF TIME PERIOD...IF IT HAPPENS...AND
THE STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
CURRENTLY OVER SERN AZ WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EWD INTO FAR W TX BY
12Z SAT. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE PRETTY MEAGER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA AS SEEN IN DEWPOINT FIELDS. EXPECT SOME RECOVERY IN MOISTURE
LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL MODELS HAVE COME IN MUCH DRIER
WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT BY LOWERING POPS ALL ZONES
TONIGHT. USED THE 10 POP RULE ACROSS SW AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL AND 15 TO
20 POPS OVER SERN TX PNHDL. LEFT OK AND NRN TX PNHDLS DRY FOR TONIGHT.

AFTER THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM PASSES US BY TO THE SOUTH...ATTENTION
WILL TURN TO A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF PROGGED TO DIG SWD DOWN THE
ERN SIDE OF THE SRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES...EVENTUALLY ENDING UP FURTHER
DOWNSTATE BY 12Z SUN. MODELS ARE DISAGREEING ON WHETHER MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SECOND STORM SYSTEM OR NOT. HAVE GONE WITH
MODEL MAJORITY SOLUTIONS. SLGT CHC SHOWERS AND TSTMS SAT AFTERNOON
ALL ZONES...THEN CHC POPS SAT EVENING WITH HIGHEST VALUES SRN TX
PNHDL AND LOWEST OK PNHDL. THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AS
WELL...WITH ABOUT A 6 TO 12 HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP
CHANCES TO MATERIALIZE. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BLOW
AGAIN STARTING LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME SORT OF WIND HIGHLIGHT MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY DURG PART OF THIS TIME PERIOD. COOLER
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY ALSO EXPECTED.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR NEXT MONDAY THRU NEXT FRIDAY WITH A DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FCST SOMETIME TUESDAY...LEADING TO A SETBACK IN TEMPS
FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
NEAR 20 PERCENT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...
TUESDAY... AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS ACROSS MOST OF THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ALONG WITH FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 20
PERCENT.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/06