Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
000
FXUS64 KAMA 150818
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
218 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level northerly flow will flatten tonight into Saturday.
This will mean rising heights over the Panhandles which translates
into warming temperatures both today and Saturday. As the flow
aloft flattens and the main westerlies move further north it will
allow an upper level low over Mexico to work its way northeast
across western Texas Saturday into Saturday night. There may be a
few rain showers associated with this disturbance, but we think
the bulk of the rain will be east of our area, so will leave the
mention of it out of this forecast.

However, another upper level low dives southeast into southern Arizona
by Sunday morning. This upper level low is expected to work its way
eastward and slowly weaken as it moves across the Panhandles by Monday
afternoon. This upper level low may be able to bring enough moisture
northward from the Gulf of Mexico into our region to set off some
precipitation. It appears that most of the precipitation will be
in the form of snow Sunday night into Monday morning before possibly
ending by mid day Monday as rain. Most of the precipitation looks
to be in the southern Texas Panhandle closest to the upper level
dynamics and moisture. At this point, it does not look like a lot
of precipitation, but we will have to keep our eye on it. Models
also do not agree on the strength nor the amount of precipitation
with this system.

The forecast looks dry after Monday as the flow aloft turns more
zonal and northwest. Another cold front is due to arrive Thursday
morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will drop to below 20 percent in the western
Oklahoma Panhandle this afternoon, but winds are expected to
remain below 15 mph. Relative humidity values will fall into the
15 to 20 percent range across much of the western and central
Panhandles on Saturday. Winds will be in the 20 to 25 mph range
with higher gusts. Relative humidity values should start to rise
by mid to late afternoon as low level moisture increases ahead of
the approaching upper level low from Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                56  29  60  29  46 /   0   0   0   5   5
Beaver OK                  58  26  63  27  45 /   0   0   0   5   0
Boise City OK              58  27  60  25  40 /   0   0   0   0   5
Borger TX                  57  32  63  33  46 /   0   0   0   5   0
Boys Ranch TX              57  24  62  26  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
Canyon TX                  56  25  60  28  47 /   0   0   0   5   5
Clarendon TX               56  28  61  30  49 /   0   0   0  10   5
Dalhart TX                 56  25  61  26  44 /   0   0   0   0   5
Guymon OK                  58  28  63  27  43 /   0   0   0   0   5
Hereford TX                55  24  59  28  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                57  30  63  32  48 /   0   0   0  10   0
Pampa TX                   55  32  60  31  46 /   0   0   0   5   0
Shamrock TX                56  27  62  32  50 /   0   0   0  10   0
Wellington TX              57  26  63  33  53 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/15



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.