896
FXUS64 KAMA 111747
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1247 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

This afternoon through Saturday, the risk for flooding increases
across the Panhandles. Very heavy rain may occur with any rain
shower or thunderstorms that can cause flooding.

A low end risk for severe thunderstorms exists this evening.
Damaging winds and hail are the primary hazards.

Daily thunderstorm chances for the next 7 days expected to
potentially compound flooding concerns. A low end severe
thunderstorm risk may continue as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Bottom line: Extremely high moisture will allow for heavy to
torrential rainfall from any rain shower or thunderstorm that then
can lead to flooding. There is a low chance that a few storms turn
strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail.

The southern plains continues to find itself under a weather pattern
consisting of high pressure to the west and east of the region and
with a broad trough over the region. This pattern is drawing up
copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf across the southern plains
including the panhandles. The trough is rotating small weather
systems across the southern plains which will be the driving force
for the formation of rain showers and thunderstorms for the next
several days. The first of these weather system is most likely to
arrive late this afternoon through the early morning hours of
Saturday, this is the most likely scenario and reflected in the
forecast. However, there is a little uncertainty that says this may
get held up and not arrive til Saturday morning through afternoon
but this is a lower chance so will not be reflected in the forecast.
While most of the weather today and tonight will be associated with
this weather system, there is a low chance for a few isolated
thunderstorms ahead of the system in the central TX panhandle for
the early afternoon. The passage of the weather system will start in
the NW panhandles later this afternoon and evening. This system then
slowly crosses the panhandles impacting Amarillo, canyon and Palo
Duro Canyon area around midnight. Finally the weather system in
large pushes to the south of the panhandles during the early morning
hours of Saturday. The environment that this weather system will be
pushing into is showing CAPE in the 1000-2000 J/Kg range with shear
of 20 KT to 30 KT. This will allow for a few of the storms to turn
strong to severe producing both damaging winds and large hail. The
environment will become progressively moister during the storms
passage with initial PWATs of around 1.2in increasing to around
1.5in. This means the moisture will be increasing from above normal
to extremely high amounts close or even above observed daily maximum
moisture amounts. That translate to all rain showers and
thunderstorms being able to produce heavy to even torrential
rainfall. This rainfall will be maximized in those strong to severe
thunderstorms which will be fully capable of producing rain rates 2
in/hr to 6 in/hr. The storm motion is such that even with these
absurdly high rain rates rain accumulation at any spot will more
likely range from 1 to 4 inches. Such rainfall can lead to flooding
especially in areas with poor drainages, that are prone to flooding,
or areas of topography that concentrate water such as Palo Duro
Canyon. The heavy rainfall is most likely to occur during the
overnight hours which will make any nocturnal flooding harder to
detect.

Following the passage of this weather system there is a moderate
chance for further rain showers and thunderstorms to develop in
the panhandles for early to mid Saturday morning. If these occur
they will most likely be weaker overall as the passage of the
weather system will have taken the lions share of the atmosphere
instability. However, the moisture will still be present so heavy
rainfall may still occur with any of these storms. This rainfall
has the potential to add to any flooding caused by the passage of
the earlier weather system. These storms are then most likely to
dissipate by the later morning as the atmosphere stabilizes.
Going into Saturday afternoon there is most likely to be enough
instability and heating to flair up additional rain showers and
thunderstorms in the panhandles. The question is to what extent
these storms will encompass the panhandles which largely depends
on early convection. The more convection we have during Friday to
the early morning hours of Saturday the less convection we will
have for the afternoon and evening of Saturday. If we have less
convection earlier then additional rain showers and thunderstorms
will form for Saturday afternoon and evening. Regardless of
coverage the moisture will remain high so the storms will still be
capable of heavy rainfall that can lead to flooding.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

For next week the pattern in large remains the same through to the
mid week. This makes it most likely for moisture to remain across
the panhandles leading to daily rain showers and thunderstorms. If
the moisture remains high then these storms will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall with associated flood concerns. For the
mid next week to next weekend there is increasing confidence for
the pattern to shift slightly with the eastern high pressure
building westward over the southern plains. This would make it
less favorable for Gulf moisture to reach the panhandles as it
will have to cross a larger area of land to do so. This reduction
in moisture will most likely not stop the daily rain showers and
thunderstorms just make them less likely to produce any heavy
rainfall. At least for now the whole of next week still is more
likely than not remain active with daily rain showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions continue through the early afternoon until the
passage of a weather system. The weather system bring rain showers
and thunderstorms to the panhandles late this afternoon through
the overnight hours starting in the NW and moving to the SE. All
terminals will be impacted by these rain showers and thunderstorms
which can produce torrential rainfall reducing conditions to IFR
or worse during their passage. There is a low chance that a few
storms become strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail.
There is a low to moderate chance that following the main line of
storms additional rain showers and thunderstorms persist over the
panhandles for early Saturday morning. Conditions then improve
for the mid to late Saturday morning with additional chance for
further rain showers and thunderstorms during Saturday afternoon
and evening.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Very high to extremely high moisture is moving across the southern
plains including the panhandles. This will allow all rain showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon through Saturday to produce heavy
to torrential rainfall. Such rainfall can lead to flooding
especially in areas with poor drainage, prone to flooding, or
areas the concentrate water like Palo Duro Canyon. The heavy
rainfall is most likely to occur during the overnight hours which
will make any nocturnal flooding harder to detect.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through late Saturday
     night for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through late Saturday
     night for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98