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000
FXUS64 KAMA 220446 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1146 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-12 KTS.
SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BY THURS EVENING.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE CAN MOVE OVER
THE KDHT TERMINAL BUT NOT EXPECTING RAIN TO REDUCE VISBYS BELOW VFR.
LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KTS MID MORNING WED AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z THURS.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES TO EARLIER FORECAST.  FOR TONIGHT...
HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST
AREA...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SAME FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN ONE THIRD OF AREA...ALONG EXPECTED INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG MODEST CONVERGENCE ZONE.  MOISTURE DEEPENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WARRANTING CONTINUATION OF EVENING POPS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF
AREA.  HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS INTO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALONG NOSE OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE.

ON THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED MORNING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE...AND HAVE
KEPT POPS DURING AFTERNOON.  RICH AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...AUGMENTED BY DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS DRYLINE RETREATS AND 850 MB UPSLOPE FLOW OF
AROUND 50 DEVELOPS.  CONCUR WITH SPC THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

HAVE REORIENTED POPS ON FRIDAY...DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION OF DRYLINE
IN FAR WESTERN ZONES.  HAVE KEPT POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS DEEP RICH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.  HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN HALF OF AREA ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION
OF DRYLINE.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/15