Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 042336
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL PREVAIL MAINTAINING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. BOTH THE RUC AND HRRR SHOWING
CONVECTION SHOULD ALREADY BE IMPACTING THE EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES BY 00Z SUNDAY...HAVE DISCOUNTED THESE
MODELS FOR THE TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. INSTEAD...THE NAM APPEARS TO BE
MORE IN LINE AND KEPT ANY CONVECTION OUT OF THE THREE TAF SITES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE THE CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP AND
BEGINS IMPACTING MOST OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR SO AFTER 01Z TO 02Z SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 14Z TO 15Z SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH
SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF AREAS THAT COULD HELP TO PRODUCE AN ENHANCED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST NEAR
A OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION THAT COULD MOVE THIS WAY IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA GIVEN THESE FEATURES.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY DRY DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...MORE MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A
BOOST ON SUNDAY FROM GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD BE CLOSE
TO 100 AGAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH BREAKS DOWN AND IT ALLOWS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY STRONG TO SEVERE AND WILL LIKELY CARRY SOME PRETTY HEAVY
RAIN WITH THEM. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH ABOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UNSTABLE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/06




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