Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 251953
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
253 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...A dryline is draped across the far eastern
Panhandles this afternoon, which has allowed high temperatures to
reach the 90s to 100 in some locations. High clouds have managed
to hold down temperatures slightly, but compressional warming due
to downslope winds has been able to overcome this. Winds should
drop overnight with low temperatures ranging from near 50
northwest to mid 60s southeast.

A slowly advancing cold front is expected to drop into the
combined Panhandles during the course of the day on Friday, though
timing of the advancement of this front may not prevent most of
the region reaching into the upper 80s to mid 90s in spots.
Frontal lift with increasing dew points behind the front may aid
in thunderstorm development favoring the far northern and
northeastern Panhandles Friday afternoon and evening.

The front will serve as a focal point of forcing on Saturday
though a passing shortwave trough will provide the best lift in
the northern and northeastern Panhandles. Modeled soundings
suggest that MLCAPE could approach 1000 to 1500 J/kg with 0-6 km
bulk shear around 50 to 60 kts favoring the northeastern
Panhandles. Should this happen strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening in
that area.

Considerable disagreement remains Sunday through Tuesday as to
where the cold front will stall, so confidence in thunderstorm
development in the Panhandles both days remains low. Another
system to watch is an upper low digging into the desert southwest
next Wednesday and Thursday may present our next best chance for
thunderstorm development with the Gulf of Mexico being open to
advect moisture into our region. Enough disagreement exists that
no certainty can be ascribed to any severe chances at this time.

Bieda

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...West to southwest winds 20-foot winds around 10 to
20 MPH with relative humidity values BTWN 10 to 18 percent are
present across the region behind a dryline this afternoon.
Elevated fire weather conditions should persist through this
evening. Another round of elevated fire weather conditions may
exist ahead of a slowly moving cold front due to the dryline
moving east across the southern Texas Panhandle. Finally, the far
southern Texas Panhandle may have elevated fire weather conditions
on Saturday afternoon depending upon how far south the cold front
advances.

Bieda

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/98



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