Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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288
FXUS64 KAMA 271736
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1236 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue at all TAF sites for the
forecast period. Although not mentioned in the TAF, some VCSH
conditions are possible, especially at KDHT/KGUY just before 00Z as
some showers from the north may move across these regions. As we go
past 06Z Thursday, rain showers will diminish as tranquil weather
conditions return to all TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                95  67  98  70  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
Beaver OK                  98  69  98  69  93 /  10  20  20  30  30
Boise City OK              95  65  95  65  95 /  20  20  10  30  20
Borger TX                  97  71  98  72  96 /  20  20  20  20  20
Boys Ranch TX              95  67  98  71  96 /  20  10  10  10  20
Canyon TX                  94  67  97  68  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
Clarendon TX               96  70  98  71  97 /  20  10  20  10  20
Dalhart TX                 95  66  96  68  95 /  20  10  10  20  20
Guymon OK                  97  68  98  68  95 /  10  20  10  30  30
Hereford TX                93  66  96  67  95 /  20  20  20  10  20
Lipscomb TX                98  69  99  70  93 /  20  20  20  30  30
Pampa TX                   96  68  98  69  95 /  20  10  20  20  20
Shamrock TX                98  70  99  70  96 /  20  10  20  20  20
Wellington TX              98  71 100  72  98 /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

DISCUSSION... A surface low over northeast New Mexico with a
stationary frontal boundary extending from the surface low eastward
into northwest Oklahoma is expected to lift north and east as a warm
front today. An upper high over the Great Basin Region will allow for
a northerly to northeasterly upper flow across the Panhandles today
through Thursday. The upper flow should transition to more
northwesterly by Thursday night or Friday as the upper high begins to
build back towards the Four Corners Region by this weekend. The
frontal boundary is expected to begin moving back to the south again
by Thursday night and Friday across the forecast area. Isolated
convection expected today through Thursday and should become more
isolated to scattered by Friday afternoon and evening as the front
approaches from the north and the northwesterly upper flow allows for
upper level support to track southeast out of the central and
southern Rockies in the form of a shortwave trough.

The CAMS models support the possibility of convection developing
across the eastern and south central Texas Panhandle by 18Z today and
then developing northward through the afternoon hours today. The 00Z
NAM also supports at least the possibility for convection developing
over the eastern and south central Texas Panhandle by 18Z today and
then convection developing across the western Panhandles between 18Z
today and 00Z Thursday. Models supporting a somewhat drier trend
after 00Z Thursday through about 00Z Friday with convection chances
increasing again Friday and Friday night and also by Saturday
evening/night.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/2



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