Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 250911
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
411 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level analysis shows ridge of high pressure over the
southeast CONUS and an upper level low pushing east over southern
Manitoba. Return flow is evident on water vapor satellite with
southwesterly flow over west Texas as a shortwave moves through
New Mexico. Increased 500mb SW winds are progged to extend
southwest over portions of western Texas through the day. Some
ageostrophic response to this feature may help bolster convection
in the south and east zones later today. At the surface...at 09z
showers and a few storms are moving northeast with most of the
activity over the southeast Texas Panhandle along a frontal
boundary. Winds have shifted to the northwest behind the frontal
boundary oriented SW-NE from near Lubbock, TX to Elk City, OK.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 60s along the northern and
western zones while our far southern and eastern zones are in low
70s with dew points in the high 50s to mid 60s.

High resolution models along with medium range guidance suggest some
decrease in storm coverage through the morning hours with the
exception of the southeastern zone along and ahead of the frontal
boundary. As the day progresses...this front will continue to be the
focus for thunderstorm development...especially with day time
heating. Decent Theta-E advection on the south side of front will
help destabilize the environment enough for strong storms and
perhaps a brief severe storm or two.  The main threat will be strong
wind gusts with inverted-v type soundings. Shear may be strong
enough beneath increased 500mb flow and east/southeast surface flow
to support a few isolated one inch hail events. Otherwise...localized
flooding is possible with some training of storms along boundary
and 10-20kt thunderstorm motion. Temperatures will struggle to
get out of 70s in the northern zones with cloud cover and being
north of front. Areas south of front should get into the low to
mid 80s.

For the rest of the week...storms are possible just about each day
with continued return flow and weak disturbances moving off main
trough over western CONUS. Temperatures will stay around average
with 80s and a few 90s. Long term models have trough lifting to the
northeast by the weekend with more zonal flow across the northern
CONUS this weekend into early next week. This results in very weak
upper flow over the southern plains as high pressure tries to build
in. At this time it looks like enough moisture will be available for
at least some diurnal convection with weak subsidence aloft. By mid
to late next week a more substantial upper ridge starts building in
which should put a damper on precip chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                81  63  84  64  87 /  50  60  20  10  30
Beaver OK                  80  65  87  66  92 /  30  60  40  30  30
Boise City OK              77  60  82  61  86 /  20  50  30  30  30
Borger TX                  83  65  87  66  90 /  50  60  30  20  30
Boys Ranch TX              82  63  87  63  90 /  40  60  30  20  30
Canyon TX                  82  63  86  63  88 /  50  60  20  10  30
Clarendon TX               85  64  88  66  90 /  50  60  20  10  20
Dalhart TX                 78  61  84  62  89 /  30  50  30  20  30
Guymon OK                  79  63  86  65  91 /  20  60  30  30  30
Hereford TX                81  62  86  63  88 /  50  60  20  10  30
Lipscomb TX                85  65  87  67  91 /  50  60  30  10  30
Pampa TX                   81  63  86  65  89 /  50  60  20  10  20
Shamrock TX                88  66  89  68  92 /  50  60  10  10  20
Wellington TX              90  67  91  69  93 /  50  60  10  10  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

2/7



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