Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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755
FXUS64 KAMA 200911
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
411 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A pre-frontal trough has already made its way through the
Panhandles tonight and is followed by a weak cold front making its
way through the northern zones right now. This front will
continue pushing southward through the day. However, with zonal
flow aloft, the frontal passage will be dry and with little notice
other than temperatures being more seasonal. Southwest flow aloft
will return on Thursday as a trough digs into the western CONUS
through the end of the week and weekend. This will allow for
moisture to return to the area and shortwaves to eject over the
region daily. With the moisture and instability in place, combined
these with upslope surface flow and we can expect showers and
thunderstorms. The setup is also that of the Synoptic Maddox
Flash Flood Pattern. PWATs during the period are either near the
90th percentile or above it. Depending on how storms set up and
their speed, flooding and/or flash flooding may become a concern.

By Monday the trough tries to cross the Rockies and eject out over
the Great Plains. Long range models are not in good agreement on
this. For now, it seems like the rain could end by Wednesday, but
there hasn`t been much agreement even from run to run on ending
timing. Fall will have a wet start, that`s for sure.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                85  61  91  64  87 /   0   0  10   5  10
Beaver OK                  87  59  94  70  92 /   0   0  10   5  10
Boise City OK              81  54  90  62  84 /   0   0   5   5  30
Borger TX                  90  63  93  70  89 /   0   0  10   5  10
Boys Ranch TX              84  58  92  65  88 /   0   0   5   5  20
Canyon TX                  87  60  91  63  88 /   0   0  10   5  10
Clarendon TX               91  64  90  66  88 /   0   5  20   5  10
Dalhart TX                 83  53  92  62  85 /   0   0   5   5  30
Guymon OK                  85  56  92  67  89 /   0   0   5   5  20
Hereford TX                85  58  90  62  87 /   0   0  10   5  20
Lipscomb TX                87  63  91  70  90 /   0   0  10   5   5
Pampa TX                   86  64  89  67  88 /   0   0  10   5  10
Shamrock TX                91  66  91  70  90 /   0   0  20  10   5
Wellington TX              95  68  92  70  91 /   0   5  20  10   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/16



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