Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 221044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
544 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017


For the 12Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will likely prevail throughout a majority (if not
all) of the valid TAF period.

Main concern today will be the possibility for thunderstorms. KDHT
has the best chance late this afternoon/early evening. KAMA and
KGUY also have a chance, but it appears less likely for these two
terminals, so decided to only mention KDHT in the current set of
TAFs for 12z. That being said, KAMA and KGUY could certainly have
thunderstorms added to subsequent TAFs. At this time, models are
struggling with the eastward progression of thunderstorms, so KDHT
was the only site that warranted a mention of thunderstorms at
this time. With or near thunderstorms, chances are ceilings will
go to at least MVFR or lower for ceilings and perhaps visibility
in heavier rain producers. The current TAF reflects VFR
conditions, but chances are categorical changes will occur in or
within the vicinity of thunderstorms. Otherwise, expect breezy
condition today across the Panhandles.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 441 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/

Southwesterly upper flow will allow for an increase in mid and
upper level moisture later today and tonight. Southerly to
southeasterly upslope flow will also advect low level moisture
into the Panhandles today and tonight into the weekend. Closed
upper low will develop over the Great Basin region by tonight and
Saturday as a longwave trough prevails over the western states
through the weekend and early next week. Convection is expected to
develop after 20Z or 21Z today across the far western portions of
the forecast area and then increasing tonight and this weekend
spreading over the remainder of the Panhandles. Convection later
today and this evening may become strong to marginally severe over
the western and perhaps central portions of the Panhandles.
Biggest concern, however, will be from very heavy rainfall which
could result in flooding or flash flooding. Best chances for the
very heavy rainfall are expected to be Saturday and Saturday

Surface low expected over eastern Colorado with surface trough
extending south across eastern New Mexico today and tonight. A
cold front should push slowly south and east into the central
Rockies and central Plains states Saturday and Saturday night
before tracking into the northwest and northern Panhandles by late
Sunday. The cold front is forecast to push through the Panhandles
Sunday night. Much cooler conditions are expected for most of next
week behind the cold front. As the closed upper low weakens into
an open wave early next week as it tracks east towards the central
Plains states, another closed upper low is expected to develop
over the Great Basin region. This will allow for continued chances
for convection through the middle and latter half of next week
with drier conditions by next Friday.


Mid and high level tropical moisture from the remnants of the
tropical system over Mexico will propagate north and northeast
across West Texas and the Panhandles by tonight and continuing
into early next week. Forecast model soundings suggest
precipitable water values should increase to around an inch and a
quarter to an inch and a half beginning later tonight through
Sunday and Sunday night. These values are in the 90th percentile
or higher for the Panhandles in late September. As a result,
included mention of heavy rainfall with convection beginning
tonight into Saturday and Saturday night mainly across the extreme
western portions of the Texas Panhandle tonight and then across
the western half Saturday and Saturday night. It may become
necessary to introduce hydrology highlights as early as this
afternoon or Saturday.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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