Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 162149
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
349 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An overall quiet forecast is in store the next seven days outside of
fire weather concerns, mainly for Friday. Fire weather concerns
Friday will be at least critical, and then potentially *near*
elevated through the weekend, but the weekend shouldn`t pose a
threat unless things degrade here on out. Confidence through Friday
night in the forecast is pretty high which features the most
impactful period of this forecast. Thanksgiving itself looks like a
nice day across the Panhandles, including travel around the local
area the days leading up to the holiday.

Looking specifically at Friday, analogs indicate the forecast is
very in-line with previous events given the current pattern and
other variables. Confidence is pretty high the forecast will come to
fruition. The one limiting factor is relative humidity given the
chance a couple degrees difference in both directions for air
temperature and dewpoint could result in the percentage of RH off
by ~3%. Given the westerly winds tomorrow, chances for dry
conditions are strong given the area of advection and the
downsloping topography. That being said, I don`t think fires care
about strict "criteria", and the treat for fire potential is
warranted. As a result, I went ahead and expanded the threat area,
and upgraded the current threat area to a Red Flag warning.
Mixing heights will be deep tomorrow afternoon with strong winds
aloft. Wind speeds are going to be close to 30-35 mph for much of
our western zones, and even still other areas will be 20-30 mph.
Relative humidity values will easily drop down into the teens for
much of the Panhandles to as low as perhaps near 10-13 percent.

This weekend there is a low chance for elevated fire weather
concerns given breezy winds in some areas and low relative humidity
around 20%.

The days leading up to Thanksgiving next week look overall nice with
little impacts weather-wise to speak of at this time across the
local area.

Guerrero

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                52  81  44  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  46  81  42  55  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              47  75  37  50  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  55  81  47  57  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              50  82  43  57  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  50  82  43  55  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               50  84  47  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 47  81  40  54  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  47  80  41  54  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                49  83  43  56  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                48  83  46  57  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   52  82  45  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                49  85  48  58  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              49  86  49  60  31 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Deaf Smith...
     Donley...Gray...Oldham...Potter...Randall.

OK...None.

&&

$$



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