Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 011754 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1254 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS PSBL ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER ANY
TERMINAL SITES WILL BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED SO HAVE DECIDED TO OMIT MENTION OF
THIS WEATHER ELEMENT FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PSBLTY OF AMENDMENTS.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO REMOVE MORNING POPS AND
WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PERIOD AS ALL RAIN HAS EITHER DISSIPATED OR
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS FCST PCKG REMAINS
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
WHETHER TAF SITES WILL BE IMPACTED. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT IMPACTS AFTER 21Z. LOWER CEILINGS AND GUSTY
WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CONTINUES ITS SLOW SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT.  LOW THUNDERSTORM POPS KEPT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AS MODEST CONVERGENCE
ALONG SURFACE TROF MAY LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT.  LOW POPS KEPT FOR
TONIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY MIGRATE
EASTWARD AND BE SUSTAINED BY WEAK RIPPLES IN MID-LEVEL FLOW.

MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO REBUILD BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT KEEPING PANHANDLES
DRY.  MODELS NOT IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RESUMING IN
NORTHWEST AND NORTH SECTIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT RESUMES.  LOW POPS ARE SPREAD EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS FLOW
ALOFT STRENGTHENS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







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