Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 281007
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
507 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO NORTH TEXAS SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST
TODAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE THE SURFACE LOW AND
DRYLINE PUSH SLOWLY EAST JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH AND WEST INTO THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BY 00Z
FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
QUICKLY DESTABILIZE BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH 0-3 KM SRH OF 296 M2/S2 AND
BRN SHEAR OF 96-99 M2/S2. SURFACE-6 KM SHEAR OF 60-65 KNOTS AND
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 18 DEGREES CELSIUS. SEVERE THREAT LIKELY
AFTER 21Z TODAY...BUT WILL PUSH BACK TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GRIDS TO BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. CLOSED UPPER LOW
TRACKING EAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL APPROACH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
ALL OF THE PANHANDLES BY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NEXT OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTION MAY COME BY LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                77  50  73  40  69 /  20  60  30  10  10
BEAVER OK                  69  50  60  42  66 /  30  80  70  40   5
BOISE CITY OK              66  44  55  37  61 /  30  70  60  30  20
BORGER TX                  76  53  70  43  69 /  30  70  40  20   5
BOYS RANCH TX              80  49  71  41  69 /  20  60  30  10  20
CANYON TX                  79  50  74  40  71 /  20  60  30  10  20
CLARENDON TX               78  54  77  44  72 /  30  60  50  10   5
DALHART TX                 74  47  64  38  65 /  20  60  40  20  20
GUYMON OK                  70  48  59  40  64 /  30  70  60  30   5
HEREFORD TX                81  48  73  40  72 /  10  50  30  10  20
LIPSCOMB TX                72  52  69  44  68 /  30  70  60  30   5
PAMPA TX                   74  51  72  40  68 /  30  70  50  20   5
SHAMROCK TX                76  55  78  46  73 /  30  70  60  20   5
WELLINGTON TX              80  57  82  48  76 /  40  60  60  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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