Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 221518 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1018 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Have made a couple adjustments to the short term. As low clouds
continue to cover the northern Panhandles with the frontal system,
have gone ahead and pulled back a bit on the afternoon high
temperatures today as well as increased sky coverage across the
Panhandles. With confidence increasing on moisture convergence
along a boundary near the southern TX Panhandle, have gone ahead
and increased pops in the 60 to 70 percent range. Some of these
showers/storms may be slow moving and produce heavy rainfall.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 603 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/

IFR cigs at DHT and GUY should slowly improve into the afternoon
and then VFR conditions should prevail. Gusty north to northeast
winds will gradually decrease later this afternoon. At AMA the
lower cigs will get close. For now have hinted at MVFR cigs with a
scattered 020 group. Otherwise skies should be VFR this forecast.
Thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into the
evening at AMA so have inserted a PROB30 group there. Cold front
is expected to switch winds around to the north and northeast at
AMA by mid morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 410 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/

Cold front is moving into northwest part of forecast area at this
time, with continued southward movement expected today.  By day`s
end, front should lie just south of the area, with northeast and
east winds providing an upslope component.  Weak disturbances in
northwest flow aloft will provide enough lift to release
instability, with good chance of thunderstorms, mainly across
southern sections, near the front today and tonight.  Abundance
of moisture and expected slow movement of thunderstorms will keep
threat of heavy rains as a primary concern.  Northeast and east
sections expected to be more stable, owing to slightly drier post-
frontal air associated with filling surface ridge.

Threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue for the next
several days, with western and northwestern sections being
favored, as northwest flow aloft will provide opportunities for
convection to move in from the higher terrain, while southeast
low-level flow will keep moisture and instability maximized over
western sections.  Models suggest that a shortwave trof will
arrive Thursday night, with chances for showers and thunderstorms
increasing Thursday night and Friday morning.  Northwest flow
prevails through Monday, with continuing chances for rain.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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