Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 160839
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
239 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level low over northern Mexico will weaken as it lifts
northeast across West Texas today and tonight and then it will move
into Kansas by Sunday morning. As this upper low approaches the
Panhandles and heights fall today it will help to tighten the
pressure gradient and this will allow for south to southwest winds
around 25 mph with higher gusts. These winds along with somewhat
drier air near the surface will cause elevated fire weather
conditions.

Another upper level low will drop south into far northwest Mexico by
Sunday afternoon. This upper low is now slower than earlier
expected, so have taken the pops out for Sunday night for the
southern Texas Panhandle.  This system is not expected to move
across eastern New Mexico and West Texas until Tuesday. The models do
not agree on the track or the strength of this system and also do
not agree on whether or not we get precipitation. For now, will leave
any pops out of the forecast and will wait for better agreement.

A strong upper level short wave trough is then expected to dive
southeast across the Panhandles Thursday and Thursday night. This
system will have some Canadian air with it, so temperatures should
be back below normal Thursday through Saturday. It is unclear again
on whether this system will bring any precipitation with it. The
model consensus at this point suggests to leave the forecast dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue with the Fire Danger Statement for elevated fire
weather conditions across the Panhandles. 20 foot winds should be
around 20 mph with relative humidity values falling into the 15 to
25 percent range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                59  28  49  28  61 /   0   0   0   0   5
Beaver OK                  62  24  46  22  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              59  23  44  26  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  62  32  49  30  63 /   0   0   0   0   5
Boys Ranch TX              61  24  52  25  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  59  25  51  26  61 /   0   0   0   0   5
Clarendon TX               61  31  52  29  60 /   0   5   0   0   5
Dalhart TX                 60  24  50  26  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  61  27  46  25  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                59  24  54  26  62 /   0   0   0   5   5
Lipscomb TX                64  32  48  26  64 /   0   5   0   0   5
Pampa TX                   62  31  49  28  63 /   0   0   0   0   5
Shamrock TX                62  34  52  28  60 /   0   5   0   0   5
Wellington TX              62  34  55  29  60 /   0   5   0   0   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/15


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