Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 292312
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
612 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...STORMS ON RADAR SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE TAF SITES FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING. SHOULD NOT SEE ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
00Z TOMORROW SO ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD.
WINDS AT KAMA WILL BE AROUND 12KTS UNTIL 04Z THEN CALM OVERNIGHT AS
THE WINDS SWING FROM NORTHEAST RIGHT NOW TO SOUTHEAST BY 04Z TO
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW STARTING AROUND 14Z. KDHT AND KGUY WILL SEE LITE
WINDS SWINGING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS WELL WHERE WINDS PICK
UP TO 10KTS STARTING AROUND 15Z TO 16Z.

BEAT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WAS INCREASING MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS
DEVELOPED. INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED FURTHER EAST AS WELL BUT
FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM ENTRANCE REGION A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET
ENCROACHING ON THE AREA HAS MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY WITH ANY
SEVERE WEATHER BEING MARGINAL AND ISOLATED THROUGH EVENING.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD TOMORROW AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EDGE. THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY AND FORCE A WEAK EAST TO WEST ORIENTED FRONT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. EXACT POSITION OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND HOW FAR
SOUTH IT WILL PROGRESS IS UNCERTAIN THOUGH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR THE BOUNDARY TO BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH
DIURNAL HEATING FROM AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING. PRECEDING
THIS SHORTWAVE...TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 100...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKENS BUT INCREASED
MOISTURE/THETA-E POOLING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STORMS. CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS ANOTHER SIMILAR
SHORTWAVE TAKES THE SAME TRACK AND APPROACHES THE AREA. CHANCES
LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BUT CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING AND
AN UPWARD TREND IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS BACK
EAST LIMIT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY RETURNING FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/15





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