Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 251745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1245 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

Complicated setup will keep confidence low for the 18Z TAF issuance.
MVFR ceilings persist over all terminals with scattered decks for
KAMA and KDHT. Can`t rule out ceilings briefly going broken or
overcast to lower categories for KAMA and KDHt over the first couple
of hours of this cycle. The next concern for the terminals comes in
the form of convection to impact KAMA, KGUY, and possibly KDHT this
afternoon and evening. Have given best estimate for the onset of
convection at the terminals with the best, and earliest, chances
residing at KAMA. KGUY also have a chance for convection later on
this evening towards the 06z hours. KDHT has a chance as well but
those chances rely on mountain convection to hold together long
enough to reach the terminal much later tonight. Convection is likely
to persist through the better part of the overnight hours before
diminishing early Friday morning. MVFR to IFR ceilings will likely
last until 15z given residual low level moisture from the anticipated


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 646 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/

For the 12Z TAFs, the potential exists for another round of showers
and thunderstorms to develop over the region later today and tonight
as a cold front remains in the vicinity and the atmosphere remains
moist and unstable. Have continued with PROB30 groups for all terminal
sites for mainly late this afternoon into the evening hours. Current
observations and short range models suggest maintaining IFR to MVFR
cigs at KGUY for this morning, then improving to VFR in the afternoon.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 411 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/

Upper level analysis shows ridge of high pressure over the
southeast CONUS and an upper level low pushing east over southern
Manitoba. Return flow is evident on water vapor satellite with
southwesterly flow over west Texas as a shortwave moves through
New Mexico. Increased 500mb SW winds are progged to extend
southwest over portions of western Texas through the day. Some
ageostrophic response to this feature may help bolster convection
in the south and east zones later today. At the 09z
showers and a few storms are moving northeast with most of the
activity over the southeast Texas Panhandle along a frontal
boundary. Winds have shifted to the northwest behind the frontal
boundary oriented SW-NE from near Lubbock, TX to Elk City, OK.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 60s along the northern and
western zones while our far southern and eastern zones are in low
70s with dew points in the high 50s to mid 60s.

High resolution models along with medium range guidance suggest some
decrease in storm coverage through the morning hours with the
exception of the southeastern zone along and ahead of the frontal
boundary. As the day progresses...this front will continue to be the
focus for thunderstorm development...especially with day time
heating. Decent Theta-E advection on the south side of front will
help destabilize the environment enough for strong storms and
perhaps a brief severe storm or two.  The main threat will be strong
wind gusts with inverted-v type soundings. Shear may be strong
enough beneath increased 500mb flow and east/southeast surface flow
to support a few isolated one inch hail events. Otherwise...localized
flooding is possible with some training of storms along boundary
and 10-20kt thunderstorm motion. Temperatures will struggle to
get out of 70s in the northern zones with cloud cover and being
north of front. Areas south of front should get into the low to
mid 80s.

For the rest of the week...storms are possible just about each day
with continued return flow and weak disturbances moving off main
trough over western CONUS. Temperatures will stay around average
with 80s and a few 90s. Long term models have trough lifting to the
northeast by the weekend with more zonal flow across the northern
CONUS this weekend into early next week. This results in very weak
upper flow over the southern plains as high pressure tries to build
in. At this time it looks like enough moisture will be available for
at least some diurnal convection with weak subsidence aloft. By mid
to late next week a more substantial upper ridge starts building in
which should put a damper on precip chances.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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