Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 221700 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016
For 18Z TAFS...Continued VFR through the 18z TAF period. Southwest
winds this afternoon will be around 15 kts with gusts to just over
20. The winds will lighten around sunset 00z and become more
southerly. An approaching surface trough will force winds to turn to
the west and northwest at the TAF sites after 10z Sunday morning.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 628 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period. Winds
will increase throughout the morning hours and peak in the afternoon
hours out of the south-southwest between 15-20 kts with gusts over 20
kts possible. As we go past 00Z Sunday, winds will shift back to the
south sustained around 10-15 kts.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 240 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/
An upper level ridge will hold on strong across the central and
southern Rockies and adjacent plains through Monday. The ridge will
then shift eastward briefly to allow an upper level short wave
trough to move across the central Rockies and central High Plains on
Tuesday. As this short wave trough passes by to our north, it may
have just enough lift and moisture to work with to provide the
eastern panhandles with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night. The latest runs of the models seem to be backing off
on the chances of rain for our area, so we may need to remove the
pops in the future.
An upper level ridge will then build back across the high plains for
the rest of the forecast, keeping our weather dry.
Gusty southwest winds will be the rule across much of the panhandles
today which will help to send high temperatures into the 80s and
lower 90s. A surface trough will move through the panhandles on
Sunday switching the winds around to the north and northeast, but
they will be much lighter than today. Highs will still be generally
in the 80s.
A very slight cool down will be possible on Wednesday behind the
departing short wave trough, but for the most part high temperatures
will be in the 80s through the rest of the forecast.
South and southwest 20 foot winds will be in the 15 to 20 mph range
today across much of the panhandles. Lowest afternoon relative
humidity values will drop to below 20 percent generally west of a
Beaver, Oklahoma to Clarendon, Texas line. We will issue a fire
danger statement for all but the eastern Texas Panhandle for today.
No elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected through
early next week after today.