Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 291802
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
102 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED TO UTILIZE VCTS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY...BUT AMENDMENTS WILL CERTAINLY BECOME NECESSARY ONCE
TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE IN THE PERIOD
AND TURN WINDS TO NORTHERLY. BEFORE THAT...PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST PRECIP CHANCES TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
THE AMARILLO AREA IS LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT MISS OUT ON A MAJORITY OF
RAIN FROM THE SHOWERS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH REDEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH.
THE N AND E PANHANDLES CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN THIS MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR HERE AS WELL, THOUGH IT IS A BIT
LESS LIKELY. BETTER CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE FROM THIS EVENING ON
STARTING IN THE NW PANHANDLES AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST. UPDATED
GRIDS ARE OUT...ZONES COMING SOON.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST ROUND WILL COME THIS
MORNING...WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY AT KGUY AND ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SLOWLY APPROACHING KAMA AND KDHT. MVFR
AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION. IN
ADDITION...SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING IFR CIGS TO DHT THIS MORNING
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
THEN LIKELY THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THIS
LATER ROUND IS LOW...BUT WILL RETAIN A VCTS MENTION LATER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT /DEPENDING ON THE SITE/.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN SPITE OF VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES ANALYZED AT 06Z...LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCED BY KAMA VAD WIND PROFILE.
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND MODEST LIFT
FROM INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LEAD US TO EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THIS TIME.  KAMA RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS INDICATE
THAT THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED ONE INCH OR MORE.  THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHARP 700 MB
TROF PASSES...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER...LESS UNSTABLE AIR ARRIVING AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS.

HAVE LOWERED POPS ON THURSDAY...DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR.  POPS ON FRIDAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED IN AREA TO
INCLUDE ONLY WESTERN SECTIONS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING IN THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER CONDITIONS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH INTERMITTENT
RAIN CHANCES. THUS NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

09/05





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