Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KAMA 181742 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE WILL
BE LOW CLOUDS AND EPISODES OF FOG. FOG IS SLOWLY ERODING AT THE TAF
SITES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALY AND TEMPORARILY LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS WELL.
EXPECT THE RETURN OF IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
GRAZE THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND MAY BRING SOME
SPRINKLES...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...FLURRIES...OR VERY LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...SO HAVE
OPTED TO OMIT FROM THE TERMINAL FCSTS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STARTING THE TAF CYCLE WILL LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON CATEGORIES. HOWEVER A DRIER AIRMASS SLIDING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES HAS LED TO IMPROVEMENTS IN BOTH VISBI AND CEILING HEIGHTS
OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IMPROVING TREND SHOULD HOLD OUT THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING EACH TERMINAL TO IMPROVE TO MVFR. WITH
THAT BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FOG
REDEVELOPING AS THE SUNRISES. MIDDAY COULD SEE KDHT AND MAYBE KGUY
REACHING VFR WITH KAMA REMAINING MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF
PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR KAMA FOR THIS ISSUANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO DROP FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT THE
TERMINALS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT US SOME LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY
AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS NEXT SHORT
WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO
MAINLY THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARS
AGAIN THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
GIVEN THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW TO MORE OF
A RIDGE TOUGH PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PANHANDLES WILL
COME UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA MAINLY
DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME RIPPLES IN THIS FLOW WHICH COULD BRING US
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO
REMOTE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.