Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KAMA 292055
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
355 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES STAND TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS WAVE HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND AS THIS UPPER
WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. HIGH RES MODELS AND THE WRF AND NMM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION TO THE NOSE OF A 30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET. UPGLIDE OVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER THIS AREA. THESE SIGNALS POINT
TO A MCS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THIS AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MCS WILL LIKELY BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH AND WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...EXPECT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN THE MAJORITY
OF CONCERNS WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S TO THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...
CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA WHICH CAN LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALTHOUGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ALOFT AND NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CAN STEER CONVECTION INTO
THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LATER IN THE DAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...SO HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND...CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW TO VEER OUT OF THE NORHT. THIS WILL
KEEP ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AMA CWA. MODEL
SIGNALS INDICATE A POSSIBLE UPTICK ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST /BEYOND
SATURDAY/ DRY FOR NOW. DESPITE THE RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  79  58  78  60 /  80  30  50  20  10
BEAVER OK                  63  74  61  83  59 /  90  80  40  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  72  55  79  60 /  80  60  50  30  20
BORGER TX                  64  79  60  81  63 /  90  40  50  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              65  80  61  82  63 /  80  30  50  20  20
CANYON TX                  63  83  59  79  60 /  70  30  50  20  20
CLARENDON TX               65  82  60  79  61 /  80  40  50  30  10
DALHART TX                 62  78  57  79  60 /  80  40  50  30  20
GUYMON OK                  63  75  58  83  60 /  90  70  40  20  10
HEREFORD TX                63  82  58  78  61 /  60  30  50  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                64  75  60  81  59 /  90  80  50  20  10
PAMPA TX                   63  75  59  78  59 /  90  40  50  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                64  81  63  80  59 /  80  50  60  30  10
WELLINGTON TX              64  87  64  81  60 /  80  40  60  30  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

09/05





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.