Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 280951
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
451 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG PSBL EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TX AND OK PNHDLS...GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF PROGGED TO
EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY
TILTED FASHION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA COURTESY OF THE ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF...DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. RETAINED SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS
FOR THIS AREA. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. HAVE RETAINED THE INHERITED POP
STRUCTURE FROM EARLIER PCKGS WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO LATEST MEXMOS
VALUES...AND BASICALLY FEATURES A GRADIENT OF POPS IN THE GRIDS SUCH
THAT THE CNTRL AND ERN OK PNHDL HAS THE HIGHEST AND FAR SERN TX PNHDL
THE LOWEST VALUES.

SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
LOSING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FCST AREA TUE...WITH ONLY LINGERING SLGT
CHC POPS OVER THE FAR ERN ZONES TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT
TO NEXT FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS FCST TO AFFECT
THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER WED INTO EARLY THURSDAY. BASED ON
LATEST PROJECTED PATH OFFERED BY THE MODELS...IT STILL APPEARS THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN E AND N OF FCST AREA.
HAVE RETAINED AND TWEEKED THE INHERITED SLGT CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT
ACROSS THE OK PNHDL AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE EXTRM NRN AND ERN TX
PNHDL. THE CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THRU THE TX AND
OK PNHDLS LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. NO POPS AFTER WED NIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE
REBOUNDING NEXT WEEKEND.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                78  57  79  56  83 /   5   5  20  30   5
BEAVER OK                  84  59  84  59  84 /   5   5  10  50  20
BOISE CITY OK              79  56  78  52  79 /   5   5  30  40   5
BORGER TX                  81  60  82  61  84 /   5   5  20  40   5
BOYS RANCH TX              80  56  80  55  83 /   5   5  20  30   5
CANYON TX                  78  56  79  55  83 /   5   5  20  30   5
CLARENDON TX               81  60  82  59  85 /   5   5  10  20  10
DALHART TX                 79  55  79  51  81 /   5   5  30  40   5
GUYMON OK                  82  58  83  56  82 /   5   5  20  50   5
HEREFORD TX                78  56  78  55  82 /   5   5  20  30   5
LIPSCOMB TX                83  60  84  60  84 /   5   5  10  40  20
PAMPA TX                   81  59  81  59  83 /   5   5  10  30  10
SHAMROCK TX                82  61  84  61  85 /   5   5  10  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              83  62  85  63  86 /   5   5  10  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







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