Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 272343 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN FORECASTS.  WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY AND AMEND IF THUNDER BECOMES MORE OF A REALISTIC
THREAT TO ANY OF THE TERMINALS.  OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OF GUSTINESS IN SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT.

SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST BY 12Z TUESDAY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
...PRIOR TO A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AROUND 15Z WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN
PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SYNOPTIC SCALE CHANGES ARE EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR WITH DEEP
TROUGH MOVING EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. MOST OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH
EVENING WILL COINCIDENT WITH THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE JUST TO OUR WEST
BUT SOME CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT INTO CIMARRON COUNTY. ALSO...WEAK
SURFACE CONFLUENCE IS SEEN IN OBSERVATIONS FROM JUST WEST OF GUYMON
EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO BETWEEN DUMAS AND DALHART TO NEAR
CLOVIS. ALONG THIS ZONE CU/TCU HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL
OLDHAM COUNTY. ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTHWEST IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SHOULD TEND TO BE MORE HIGH BASED THAN
ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL LIMIT LONGEVITY
OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
MARGINAL AND BRIEF AT BEST. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. TEMPERATURE CONTRAST WILL NOT BE
VERY LARGE BUT CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THIS
WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST
TWO THIRDS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL THETA-E POOLING...AND SUBTLE WAVES IN
VEERING MEAN WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF RETROGRADING/FLATTENING RIDGE
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH TOMORROW
AND UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY. FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE UNCLEAR BUT THE GENERAL
PATTERN WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST A CLIMO POP FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD. FLOW
WILL BE INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE WEST AND
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS PERIODIC WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH
THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD BASED ON THIS PATTERN. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
GRADUALLY TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                71  95  68  85  67 /  10  20  30  30  40
BEAVER OK                  70  96  69  81  67 /   5  30  40  40  40
BOISE CITY OK              68  90  63  77  63 /  20  30  40  50  40
BORGER TX                  73  98  70  86  69 /  10  30  40  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              71  97  68  84  66 /  10  30  40  50  40
CANYON TX                  71  96  67  87  66 /  10  20  20  30  40
CLARENDON TX               72  99  70  91  70 /   5  10  10  20  30
DALHART TX                 69  93  66  80  64 /  10  30  50  50  40
GUYMON OK                  71  93  67  82  66 /  10  30  40  40  40
HEREFORD TX                70  95  67  87  66 /  10  20  30  40  40
LIPSCOMB TX                73  99  70  86  68 /   5  20  40  30  40
PAMPA TX                   71  95  68  85  67 /   5  20  30  30  40
SHAMROCK TX                72 100  71  92  70 /   5   5  10  20  30
WELLINGTON TX              74 101  72  95  71 /   0   5   5  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06





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