Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 212111
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
411 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND ATTENDANT
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...AND WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG A SFC TROF AXIS OVER ERN NM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS ACROSS WRN AND NWRN ZONES. HAVE GONE WITH AREAL
QUAILFIER TERMINOLOGY USING ISOLD TO SCT VALUES FOR THIS EVENING
ACROSS THIS AREA...THEN NON MENTIONABLE VALUES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

A SIMILAR SCENARIO MAY EVOLVE LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES...AND HAVE DECIDED TO INSERT SLGT CHC
POPS IN THAT AREA FOR TUE EVENING AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING AROUND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WANDER BACK TO THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK TO A POSITION
AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL ERN US TROF DEVELOPS.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL PLACE THE PNHDLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY DURG THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
CONTINUING BEYOND THIS FCST PCKG IF MODEL PROGS VERIFY. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCORPORATED SLGT CHC POPS FOR NWRN
ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND SLGT CHC POP VALUES AREAWIDE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT MONDAY BASED ON THE
EXPECTED PATTERN CHANGE AND REASONABLE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THRUOGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                70  96  68  96  68 /  10  10  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  71 102  70 101  70 /  10   5  10   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              67  96  66  96  66 /  30  10  20   5   5
BORGER TX                  74 100  73 100  73 /  10  10  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              68  97  67  97  67 /  20  10  10   5   5
CANYON TX                  70  96  67  96  68 /  10  10  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               70  99  70  99  70 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 66  98  65  98  66 /  20  10  20   5   5
GUYMON OK                  70 102  69 101  69 /  20  10  10   5   5
HEREFORD TX                69  96  67  96  67 /  10  10  10   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                70 100  70  99  70 /  10   5   5   5   5
PAMPA TX                   70  98  70  98  70 /  10   5   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                71 100  71  99  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              72 101  72 101  72 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







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