Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
972
FXUS64 KAMA 221124
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
624 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...
Low clouds are still lingering over the Panhandles, but it looks
like there will be some breaks and possible clearing ahead of what
the models are suggesting. IR satellite has cleared out KGUY with
KDHT and KAMA not far behind. Although clearing could occur, there
is still the possibility that low clouds could still advect back
over the TAF sites later today. Generally, the cigs will range
from 2-4kft agl, and should lift 5-10kft agl by 18Z. Thereafter
gradual clearing is expected. Winds will be out of the north
10-15kts gusting up to 25kts through about 00Z, then will diminish
out of the south and southwest 5-10kts.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 359 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level disturbance continues to push east with northerly flow
on the back side for the Panhandles. Some low to mid level clouds
will still be present limiting today`s heating, but northerly
winds 10 to 15 mph will keep highs struggling to reach 60 across
most areas.

Tonight winds will start to die down and skies will begin to
clear as high pressure moves over the forecast area. Strong
radiational cooling will lead to temperatures approaching
freezing. As a result we could see a frost Sunday morning. With
clear skies and returning south winds temperatures will be back in
the low 70s.

Sunday night into Monday flow will shift more zonal, but warming
aloft and sufficient mixing will allow for temperatures to reach
upper 80s to near 90.

Upper level trough axis will begin to move over the Panhandles on
Tuesday. Right now showers/storms look like they will be mainly
over the northern Texas, and OK Panhandle. The fast moving cold
front will move through and exit by Wednesday evening.

Models diverge a bit at this point, but overall an upper level
trough will begin to dive south, the timing and position of this
trough will drastically impact the extended. Multiple solutions
suggest anything from an overnight shortwave on Thursday morning,
leading to elevated convection, and a fairly strong cold front
behind. We could also see a deeper longwave trough centered mainly
over the four corners region with very warm southerly flow ahead
on Thursday. With southeast moisture advection ahead of this
system a strong dryline looks to set up along the eastern TX/OK
state line. Right now if we see sever weather, it will likely be
east of the Panhandles, which matches up with SPC`s 15 percent
prob severe for Friday over Oklahoma.

Weber

FIRE WEATHER...
Strong winds will mix down on Monday afternoon with very warm
temperatures and relative humidities ranging from 10 to 20 percent
across the western and central Panhandles. Eastern portions will
be in the 20 to 30 percent. This will put most of the area in
Elevated Fire Weather conditions, and therefore a Fire Danger
Statement might be needed.

Tuesday and Wednesday will still be warm but humidities will be
higher and the southwest portions of the Panhandles might touch 20
percent.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                59  36  71  48  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  60  33  73  51  89 /   5   0   0   0   5
Boise City OK              57  34  72  49  84 /   5   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  60  38  72  52  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              61  36  74  49  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  59  36  70  48  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               61  36  68  45  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 59  36  74  47  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  59  36  73  50  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                61  37  72  48  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                59  36  71  50  87 /   5   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   59  36  70  48  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                61  38  69  46  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              62  39  69  46  83 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.