Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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250
FXUS64 KAMA 261007
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
507 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.Discussion...
For today and tnnight, the upper level low pressure system currently
over central Arizona will head ene into nrn NM and srn CO by late
this afternoon, then towards ern CO and wrn KS by 12Z Friday. As
this occurs, the sfc pressure gradient will tighten today in advance
of a cold front. SW winds will ramp up by late this morning and
continue through the afternoon hours. These winds will help send the
dryline to near the TX and OK state line by late this afternoon. Have
trimmed pops to only include the far ern tier of counties for this
afternoon in the event isold storms manage to develop in this area
before quickly movg into OK. If a few storms form, they will have the
potential to become svr briefly before crossing the state line into
OK, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards.
Otherwise, dry weather will prevail for most of the fcst area through
tonight.

For Friday and Friday night, the upper level low pressure system is
progged to track newd across KS and NE. The corresponding sfc cold
front will move sewd thru the fcst area durg the daylight hours.
Their could be enuf moisture pooling behind the boundary plus some
minor wraparound moisture to support low pops for showers and tstms
over the OK Pnhdl and far nrn TX Pnhdl Friday. Non-mentionable pops
seem ok for Friday night through Saturday night areawide.

For Sunday through Wednesday, the threat for showers and tstms
increases and persists for most of the area as some semblance of
weaker upper level troffing continues over the swrn US. Hard to time
minor impulses emanating from this general weak upper level swrn US
trof suggests varying degrees of pop values for the fcst area durg
this time period. Based on latest medium range models, it does appear
that by the end of this fcst cycle, an upper level ridge of high
pressure will develop over the intermountain west, which could
disrupt the persistent upper level troffing that has been the case
across the west and southwest US for some time now.

ANDRADE

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                88  53  80  51  84 /   5   5  10   5   5
Beaver OK                  90  53  80  53  83 /  20  10  20  10   5
Boise City OK              84  48  73  49  82 /   5  10  30  10  10
Borger TX                  91  56  82  54  85 /  10   5  10   5   5
Boys Ranch TX              88  51  79  50  85 /   5   5  10   5  10
Canyon TX                  88  52  80  51  84 /   5   5  10   5   5
Clarendon TX               91  56  84  54  86 /  10  10  10   5   5
Dalhart TX                 86  49  74  49  84 /   5   5  20  10  10
Guymon OK                  89  51  78  51  84 /  10  10  20  10  10
Hereford TX                87  51  80  50  84 /   5   5  10   5   5
Lipscomb TX                90  55  82  53  84 /  20  10  20  10   5
Pampa TX                   90  55  81  53  85 /  10  10  10   5   5
Shamrock TX                91  58  85  55  86 /  20  10  10  10   5
Wellington TX              92  60  87  57  88 /  20  10  10  10   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$



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