Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 111111
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
611 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25KT AND 30KT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN. THESE GUSTS WILL DROP OFF AFTER
SUNSET AND SUSTAINED WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 15KT. MODELS SHOW A PLUME
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS PLUME COULD ALLOW A SCATTERED STRATUS DECK TO
DEVELOP NEAR KDHT...BUT THE FLIGHT CATEGORY SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TODAY AND AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS
MOVING WEST WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
ALONG WITH A MORE EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW. ANY
CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WILL
STAY WELL WEST OF THE PANHANDLES. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. SATURDAY...THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WEST AND BUILDS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION BY LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY
SATURDAY EVENING AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
00Z AND 03Z SUNDAY. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WHICH IS THEN FORECAST
TO STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE OR SO BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH...ALONG WITH
AN ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES MONDAY BEFORE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE FRONT SLIDES WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES BY TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ALLOWS FOR A REINFORCING SURGE OF
MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER WEST TEXAS AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
BUILD JUST NORTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH
ROBUST ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
OR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. UNSEASONABLY COOL MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11





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