Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 162358

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
658 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

00z TAF Cycle:

VFR conditions through the period. Winds are expected to be
stay around or less than 10 knots through the period. Took wind
shear mention out of KAMA terminal prior to 06z tonight as the
low level jet is expected to be fairly weak with minimal
directional shear (total max shear magnitude should be less than
30 knots).



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 233 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

Not too much derivation from the previous forecast. The
Panhandles region under a south to southwesterly winds have warmed
nicely from a chilly start this morning. Current observations
shows a surface low trying to develop over SE Colorado in-
conjunction with a surface ridge shifting SE into north central
TX, southwest winds will be rather gusty at times this afternoon
over 20 kts at times, with winds subsiding by evening hours.
Otherwise, going forward into the remainder of the week will bring
tranquil weather conditions. High pressure will dominate the
remainder of the work week with light south and southwesterly
winds keeping temperatures near to above average.

As we go into the weekend, a deepening trough over the Pac NW will
move east into the inter-mountain west by Saturday morning. A
developing surface low pressure in Canada will have an extended
cold front across the central CONUS. In-conjunction with the cold
front, latest 16/12Z model and numerical data illustrate a deep
sinusoidal jet dipping equatorward into the Panhandles region by
late Saturday and early Sunday morning providing some localized
lift for showers and thunderstorms, especially for the eastern
Panhandles where the best instability and lift are located at this
time along the cold front. Will update forecast as we get closer
with time. Temperatures ahead of front on Saturday will be near
average to below average behind the front on Sunday before
rebounding to near average by next Monday.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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