


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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726 FXUS64 KAMA 101103 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 603 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Thunderstorms today and tomorrow have a low chance of becoming severe. Damaging winds and hail are the primary hazards. Tomorrow is expected to be the warmest day of the week. A cooling trend commences Friday onward. Daily thunderstorm chances continue into next week. The flood risk will be monitored. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 An upper level trough prepares to dig south into our CWA Thursday night. This will reposition the the ridge further west for the next several days. A reinforcement shortwave is forecast to move through on Friday after the main wave. Throughout the short term period, surface winds will actually retain their southerly flow for most areas barring the northwest. In our northwest zones, winds may go variable to northerly by Friday due to the influence of a surface high that`s forecast to develop off the mountains. Thursday is our best shot at seeing 100 degree temperatures around the combined Panhandles. Only a handful of locations should meet or exceed 100, and the best spots to do so favor the eastern Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle. The rest of the region will cap off in the mid to upper 90`s. Later in the afternoon, convection will initiate off the high terrain and move eastward. As the shortwave moves in during the evening, thunderstorms will have the lift they need to continue overnight even as they exit the better Theat-E gradient forecast to setup over central portions of the Texas Panhandle. A sufficient near storm environment will be present for storms to become organized tomorrow evening and could quickly turn severe. Damaging winds are the primary hazard given >1,000 J/kg DCAPE anticipated tomorrow, but embedded hail cores are also possible with storms that have strong updrafts. Lingering showers are expected to fizzle out before sunrise on Friday. This will aid in destabilization across the CWA and make way for our next round of storms later in the day. If early morning showers stay around later in the morning than currently forecast, we should still have a sufficient window to clear out in the afternoon for thunderstorms; however, they may not be as widespread especially in the east. Another low risk for severe thunderstorms is present on Friday. Damaging winds likely the primary hazard once again due to our inverted V forecast soundings. Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 At the start of the extended period, the H500 ridge will still reside over the western CONUS. This allows the northwest flow regime to continue over the CWA this weekend and into early next week. As the week progresses we expect to see a decrease in heights as the upper ridge begins to reposition itself across North America. Beyond the 7 day period, the question remain as to where the new high pressure center will set up and how high may heights in that time frame rise before potentially being interrupted. In the meantime, the suppression of upper level high pressure away from our region will allow our active weather pattern to continue for the foreseeable future. Highs next week are forecast to retreat back into the 80`s. Given our high moisture content in the area, it will make efforts to climb back into the 90`s difficult for most places in the combined Panhandles. However, this obstacle may still be overcome and some lower 90`s should return to a few locations by the middle of next week. those same high moisture profiles will aid in the continuation of our daily thunderstorm chances. While low end severe threats are still possible, our main concern will be flooding next week. Rangel && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 439 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 VFR conditions expected this 12Z TAF period. However, the terminals, especially KDHT and KGUY have a good chance at being impacted by thunder and heavy rain in storms that may bring conditions down to IFR after 00Z Friday. KAMA only has a slight chance at thunderstorms and have left out of the TAFs at this time. Outside of thunderstorms expect south to southwest winds between 15 and 20 kts through 00Z Friday. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...36