Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 301707
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1207 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY ONCE MIXING SUBSIDES THIS EVENING AND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE. LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL PROBABLY VEER AGAIN AND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DUE TO SURFACE RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH.

BRB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENUF TO THE FCST AREA TO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...AND REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE MIGRATING EWD AGAIN TOWARDS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
UPCOMING FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THRU THE
WEEKEND AND WERE ACCEPTED. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TEMPORARILY PARKS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...THE FCST AREA WILL
BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
STEERING STORMS INTO TX AND OK PNHDLS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN
CO AND NERN NM. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY
MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED AFTERNOON THRU THURSDAY MORNING.
AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE SCENARIO...SLGT CHC POPS WED AFTERNOON FOR
NRN ZONES ARE WARRANTED...SPREADING SWD TO ENCOMPASS THE FCST AREA
WED NIGHT. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS ARE JUSTIFIED FOR THURSDAY THRU
FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE FAVORABLE NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE WARMING UP AGAIN
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY
SLIDE EWD AGAIN THIS WEEKEND...SO HAVE RETAINED A DRY FCST DURG THIS
TIME FRAME. NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS THEN DIVERGE FOR NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 00Z GFS MOVES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF
RETROGRADES IT AGAIN TOWARDS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLACES OUR
FCST AREA UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THESE DISCREPANCIES...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS A CONSERVATIVE COMPROMISE WITH TEMPERATURES AND POPS
FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY PENDING BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND
ASSOCIATED FCSTR CONFIDENCE.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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