Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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065
FXUS64 KAMA 210323
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1023 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to remain throughout the entire forecast
period at all TAF sites under tranquil weather conditions. As we go
past 12Z on Thursday, well mixed conditions will bring SW wind flow
of 15 to 20 kts with gusts near 25 kts possible. Winds will subside
as we go towards 00Z Friday and shift to more S and SSE. For
KDHT/KGUY, some mid level scattered cloud deck will move in from the
SW and WSW once we go past 00Z Friday. VFR conditions are expected to
continue straight through to the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 300 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows 597 dam ridge dominating over the
Southern Plains and slightly more amplified than yesterday. An
upper trough is spinning off the coast in the Pac NW with upper
flow extending into the far Northern Plains where more active
weather is expected.

For today and Thursday...continued hot and dry with highs in the
mid-high 90s. Thursday looks to be even warmer with many areas
expected to reach 100... especially along the OK panhandle. Weak
lee troughing will keep southerly winds in the forecast for much
of the period. Continues strong subsidence will keep convection
out of the forecast through Thursday.

Beyond Thursday... Continued hot with highs near 100 through
Saturday. The ridge will begin to deamplify and elongate Friday
into the weekend. This will allow perhaps a storm or two to make
it off the mountains and into The western OK panhandle and far
northwestern TX panhandle with weak northwesterly flow aloft on
Friday. Moisture will be limited with well mixed boundary layer so
expect gusty winds will be possible with any storms that develop.
Increased chances of precipitation are on tap for Sat into early
next week as a more pronounced lee side low develops and tries to
bring a weak frontal boundary into the area. Long term models show
continued northwest flow through the middle of next week with
gradual height falls resulting in chances of precip through the
extended.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/14



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