Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 201114
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
614 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY. LIFR/IFR CIGS THIS
MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO EASTERLY TONIGHT.
THIS ENHANCED UPSLOPE COMPONENT...ALONG WITH DIURNAL COOLING...WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO CIGS LOWERING BACK TO IFR TONIGHT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
BR DEVELOPMENT.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT US OUR WEATHER YESTERDAY CURRENTLY OVER
NE/SD...AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER
THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SINKING
SOUTHWARD. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS...APPEARS
THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN SHROUDED IN CLOUDS TODAY. AS
SUCH...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY JUST THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

THE WET PATTERN OF LATE...PUNCTUATED BY WHAT SEEMS LIKE A CONTINUOUS
STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND EVENTUAL LOWS...RETURNS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATH TO THE LAST FEW OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE PANHANDLES UNDER
THE GUN FOR ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN COULD PROVE TO PERNICIOUS
REGARDING FLOODING CONCERNS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES WITH THE
ABUNDANT RECENT RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY...LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRYLINE THAT IS NOT QUITE YET RESOLVED IN
THE MODELS...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE REPRIEVE FROM
THE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FAVORS A MORE NORTHERN PATH.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/18





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