Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
000
FXUS64 KAMA 140823
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
323 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
A much welcomed shift from the hodge podge of fire weather is in
store, as we finally get to hone in on precip chances for portions
of the Panhandles. An initial weak cold front is gradually
nudging into the area this morning, pulling slightly better
moisture with it along the way. This front and associated moisture
will have minimal implications for most of the Panhandles today,
with the exception being the far northwest Panhandles. Here,
temperatures will be much cooler, while minor perturbations within
southwest flow aloft should provide adequate lift for some light
showers (30-70% POPs in Dallam and Cimarron counties). Elsewhere,
the front will provide low cloud cover and quite the array of
temperatures this afternoon, ranging from mid 40s in the northwest
to mid 70s in the southeast. Another reinforcing shot of cooler
air will dip south across the FA this evening, cooling everyone
into the 30s by Friday morning, only recovering into the 50s
Friday afternoon.
Later tonight, an upper level closed low will pump the brakes on
its southward trek, and begin meandering around west of the
Rockies near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this occurs, Pacific
moisture can begin making its way towards at least the far western
portions of the CWA through Friday. Models still suggest light
showers could develop with any subtle impulse lifted over the
region, focusing on the west/southwest Panhandles Friday morning -
afternoon (30-50% POPs 7AM-7PM). Some CAMs hint that these
showers could spread further east across a larger portion of the
area, but confidence is low, especially with most global models
really shunting the bulk of precip further west. Any precip across
the northwest Thu night - Fri morning could fall as a rain-snow
mix if temperatures can drop below freezing, but any snowfall
shouldn`t be impactful. All in all, most areas that see
precipitation by Sat morning (other than the northwest) probably
won`t be too thrilled with the amounts, generally on the order of
a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch or so. We`ll take every
last bit we can get right now, and hopefully the more zealous
solutions pan out, but don`t expect much of a dent to our
naggingly dry conditions.
Harrel
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
An upper level low will meander around Arizona Saturday through
Tuesday, before potentially lifting out northeast on Wednesday. The
Panhandles will generally be under a southwest flow aloft ahead of
this low. However, there is a chance the Panhandles could briefly
come under a northwest flow aloft Monday and Tuesday on the
southwest edge of a large upper level trough moving southeast
through the Great Lakes and northeast U.S. A cold front may move
through the Panhandles late Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead
of this upper level trough moving to our northeast.
Chances for rain are all over the place given the various solutions
on how strong any dynamics will or won`t be from our Arizona low. At
this point it looks like the southwest half of the Texas Panhandle
stands the best chance at seeing any rain Saturday through Monday.
The rain looks to be really light as well with many spots picking
less that a couple of tenths of rain for the entire period.
Highs are expected to be generally in the 50`s and 60`s for Saturday
through Monday with mainly 60s` and 70`s for Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Winds will shift to more northerly behind a cold front tonight
into tomorrow morning, with speeds around 5-10 kts now, increasing
to 10-20 kts through the day. MVFR ceilings will also make their
way to the area this morning, likely impacting KGUY and KDHT
through the end of the period, with less confidence that they
reach as far south as KAMA.
Harrel
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 64 37 53 35 / 0 0 40 10
Beaver OK 64 36 59 33 / 0 0 10 0
Boise City OK 48 32 49 30 / 40 20 30 10
Borger TX 66 40 58 36 / 0 0 20 0
Boys Ranch TX 63 37 54 35 / 0 10 40 10
Canyon TX 66 36 53 35 / 0 0 40 10
Clarendon TX 72 39 57 37 / 0 0 40 10
Dalhart TX 54 33 51 31 / 10 10 40 10
Guymon OK 57 34 55 31 / 10 10 10 0
Hereford TX 66 36 52 35 / 0 10 50 10
Lipscomb TX 67 39 60 35 / 0 0 20 0
Pampa TX 65 38 56 36 / 0 0 20 10
Shamrock TX 72 40 59 37 / 0 0 20 10
Wellington TX 75 41 60 39 / 0 0 30 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...38