Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 130605

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
105 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

06z TAF Cycle:

An area of -TSRA is trying to move out of CO/KS into the OK
Panhandle. These may impact KGUY over the next 2-3 hours if the
storms hold together. Otherwise, IFR with spotty LIFR cigs will
prevail for most of the Panhandles overnight through sunrise
Sunday. Vsbys may also drop to 2SM-4SM as BR develops in responce
to very moist surface but are not expected to be widespread, so
kept cat reduction for vsby out of TAFs until better confidence is
achieved. Cigs/vsbys should improve gradually after sunrise with
VFR expected at all sites by around 17z. The atmosphere is
expected to destabilize Sunday afternoon ahead of a mid-level
disturbance. This should help kick off what will most likely be a
broken line of strong thunderstorms moving southeast to easterly
out of NM/CO. At this point there is decent confidence that KAMA
and KDHT will be impacted by these storms during the evening
Sunday, so included tempo groups there. Confidence is less for
KGUY because storms may have a large southerly component keeping
most activity west/south of KGUY.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1009 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017/

Have updated graphical forecasts, lowering pops to no greater than
slight chance for remainder of evening.  For after midnight, have
retained chance pops in northwest, where thunderstorms
currently over eastern Colorado have the better chance of making
it to our forecast area.  Still expecting areas of fog to develop
after midnight.  Updated text products will be issued shortly.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 323 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017/

Most of the rain should continue to move of to the southeast in
association with an upper level shortwave trough. There may not be
much in the way of precipitation across the panhandles tonight
behind this shortwave. Models do not indicate any disturbances
moving across the panhandles in the northwest flow aloft through
tonight.  We will lower pops to low end chance and slight
chance pops.

On Sunday, we should see showers and thunderstorms move this way
from the mountains of Colorado and New Mexico in the afternoon.
Another upper level shortwave trough will move southeast as well
keeping these showers and thunderstorms going through the night as
they traverse the panhandles. However, the better chance of rain may
be across the west.

By Monday, the flow aloft will become weaker as we transition from a
northwest flow to a more westerly flow. However, there will still be
a chance of showers and thunderstorms as the subtropical plume will
still be overhead.

Tuesday and Tuesday night may be our last chance of showers and
thunderstorms for this forecast before the southwest flow aloft
starts to push the subtropical plume south away from our area. The
upper level trough responsible for our southwest flow aloft will be
over the Great Basin on Tuesday and it will slowly push east and
will be over the Great Plains by the end of the week. The flow aloft
will slowly transition back to northwest next weekend, so rain
chances may increase just beyond this forecast again.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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