Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 181108
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
608 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017
12Z TAF Cycle
MVFR to IFR ceilings at the Amarillo TAF site will give way to VFR
conditions by 16Z or 17Z today. VFR conditions should prevail at
both the Guymon and Dalhart TAF sites through 12Z Sunday, although
a brief period of MVFR ceilings may be possible between 12Z and
16Z today. Light and variable winds this morning, around 5 to 10
knots or less, will become southeast to south 10 to 20 knots
around 16Z to 18Z today and then south and southwest 5 to 15 knots
after 07Z to 09Z Sunday.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 416 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/
Noteworthy items for this discussion include the fire weather threat
Sunday across the Panhandles, especially parts of the western
Panhandles. Fire weather concerns arise again on Thursday as well.
Please see the fire weather section below for more details. There
is a chance for precipitation Wednesday night through Friday.
There could even be some thunderstorms around the forecast area.
Chances are low at this time, but at least we have a chance for
rainfall to help with the very dry conditions lately. Temperatures
will continue to be above normal for this time period.
We begin the pattern aloft with ridging over the forecast area. We
then go into a zonal pattern aloft through mid-week. By Wednesday,
the pattern becomes more southwesterly and a trough starts to form
over the west coast. The handling of the trough is the main
difference in the long term, mainly through the end of the work
week. The GFS and European both come back into phase with one
another by Friday night/Saturday. This trough will be the focus of
our next chance for precipitation. The best chance for the
Panhandles will be Thursday/Thursday night for mainly eastern
parts of the Panhandles. We do have the chance for thunderstorms
beginning Wednesday night with evidence of instability across our
eastern half, but as mention earlier the better chance for
rainfall/thunderstorms is Thursday. Overall, chances are pretty
low at this time for precipitation.
With ridging in place now, and then the transitioning to
southwesterly flow aloft, it doesn`t look like any cold air will
plunge into the forecast area any time soon. Above normal
temperatures look likely through the next 7 days. Sunday we could
have some locations hit the lower 90s for highs. Borger and
Dalhart are in contention for new records highs for March 19th.
Records for March 19th
Borger: 89 in 2004
Dalhart: 85 in 2004
Forecast for March 19th
Elevated to critical fire weather concerns will be realized on
Sunday as breezy southwest winds around 15 to 25 mph will set up
across the Panhandles. These wind speeds coupled with low relative
humidity values with bring an increased risk for fire weather
concerns. Across western parts of the Panhandles, relative humidity
values could be as low as values around 5 to 15 percent.
Although not as dry with relative humidities, Thursday and Friday
could both be days where elevated to perhaps critical fire weather
becomes an issue as well. Those days are still far out so a lot can
change, but right now these two days look to be at least on the
elevated side for fire weather concerns.