Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 301139
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
539 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016
VFR conditions expected through the period. An area of mid level
clouds is moving through the northern Texas Panhandle this morning
but will give way to mostly clear skies by noon. Winds for most of
the area will become more southwesterly today but generally stay
around 10 knots. KAMA could see slightly stronger winds with a few
gusts late this morning through the afternoon.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 424 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/
Satellite and water vapor imagery continues to show large scale
trough centered Minnesota. This trough extends from the Rockies to
the Mississippi and Ohio Valley. This will continue to keep our area
in a northwest to west flow aloft. Cool air will remain in place and
temperatures are expected to be near to slightly below normal for the
rest of the work week. As the low pulls up into the Great Lake region
the trough axis will push to the east and we can expect a mostly dry
and zonal flow aloft that will persist through Friday morning.
We are currently tracking a weather system that is expected to impact
the area on Friday and Saturday, with timing still a little
uncertain. This upper level low pressure system is currently over
the northern Pacific and is expected to moved down the western
Rockies Thursday night into Friday. This will shift the flow aloft
out of the southwest by Friday afternoon. However low level winds are
expected to be out of the east northeast which favors upslope to the
area. The biggest issue that still remains is when the low tracks
down, where will it be centered and will it track so far down that it
will become cut-off from the cold airmass to the north. This will
have significant impacts as to whether or not we see snow/rain or any
precipitation at all. The ECMWF and Canadian models continue to hold
onto the colder and fairly moist solution. If these solutions pan out
we will be under forecast our snowfall amounts. However if the
warmer GFS or drier NAM model pan out the we will be over
forecasting. Right now current forecast meets in the middle and
hedges to the colder airmass being in place. Snowfall amounts look to
range from a half an inch to upwards of three inches across the
southeast zones, due to enhancement from orographic lift.
If snow does occur on Saturday, the lifespan of it remaining will be
short lived as the system exits to the east we will see a warm
southwest flow with 850mb temperatures back to the 8-12C range.
Afternoon highs by Monday look to return to the upper 50s to lower
60s across the south and in the 50s to the north.
Tuesday onward will be interesting as models are starting to hint at
another weather system that will be even stronger and if it brings
precipitation it definitely looks for now like it would be snow.
850mb temperatures have a drastic drop and cool off somewhere in the
-8 to -12C range. Current highs next Wednesday may not break freezing
for the OK Panhandle and could struggle to get into the mid to upper
30s for the southern TX Panhandle.
Stay tuned for updates on our snow or lack there of potential for
this weekend and possible arctic intrusion mid next week.