Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 231059 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
559 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Winds have diminished across the Panhandles and skies are mostly
clear, allowing for strong radiational cooling. Temperatures
flirting with the freezing point will result in a possible
widespread frost this morning. Therefore a Frost Advisory remains
in effect through 9AM. Collingsworth County is the only area that
is expected to stay warm enough to not see a frost. South winds
returning this afternoon will allow temperatures to be back in the
low 70s.

Sunday night into Monday flow will shift more zonal, but warming
aloft and sufficient mixing will allow for temperatures to reach
upper 80s to near 90.

Tuesdays highs will be a bit tricky as west to southwest flow will
be over the area, but the upper level trough axis will be just
west of the Panhandles and the heights will begin to fall. We may
not reach full mixing if cooler air starts to funnel in sooner. Some
instability for a possible shower/storm over the northern
Panhandles ahead of the shortwave. Stable showers expected behind
the cold front.

Right now Wednesday morning lows are in the low 40s, but will
keep an eye out as models have been trending colder, and we could
see lows falling into the 30s with future updates. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 60s. The fast moving cold
front will move through and exit by Wednesday evening.
Temperatures will quickly recover into the lower to mid 70s under
west to southwest flow on Thursday.

Models have started to come better in line for Friday and
Saturday. Overall, an upper level trough will begin to dive
south, centered mainly over the four corners region with very
warm southerly flow ahead on Friday. With southeast moisture
advection ahead of this system a strong dryline looks to set up
along the eastern TX/OK state line. There is some indication that
some moisture might advect over portions of the northeast TX/OK
Panhandle. Right now CAPE values over these areas are right
around 1000 J/kg. As we move into Saturday the atmosphere will
become more stable with subsidence aloft, and drier air. Expect
that Saturday will be a windy day with strong winds aloft mixing
down.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong winds will mix down on Monday afternoon with very warm
temperatures and relative humidities ranging from 10 to 20 percent
across the western and central Panhandles. Eastern portions will
be in the 20 to 30 percent. This will put most of the area in
Elevated Fire Weather conditions, and therefore a Fire Danger
Statement might be needed.

Tuesday and Wednesday will still be warm but humidities will be
higher and the southwest portions of the Panhandles might touch 20
percent.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAF issuance, VFR conditions will prevail throughout
the forecast period with light and variable winds overnight.
Around midday winds will increase from the south into the 12kt to
15kt range with higher gusts. These gusts should cease after 2Z
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                71  48  87  59  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
Beaver OK                  72  51  89  54  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
Boise City OK              72  50  85  53  73 /   0   0   0   0  20
Borger TX                  72  52  89  61  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
Boys Ranch TX              74  50  89  59  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
Canyon TX                  71  49  87  59  82 /   0   0   0   0   5
Clarendon TX               69  46  87  60  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dalhart TX                 74  48  87  55  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                  72  51  88  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
Hereford TX                72  49  87  59  82 /   0   0   0   0   5
Lipscomb TX                71  50  87  58  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   70  49  88  59  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
Shamrock TX                70  47  84  58  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
Wellington TX              70  47  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...
     Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...Hutchinson...
     Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Potter...Randall...
     Roberts...Sherman...Wheeler.

OK...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following
     zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

89/14



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