Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 031724
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1224 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE STRENGTHENING AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 02Z. LATER THIS EVENINGS WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY BEFORE VEERING AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
SHOULD BE WEST OF KDHT CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BASIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE NEAR TERM.  LOW DIURNAL POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...OWING TO CONTINUED MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...COOLER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES...OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROFS...AND
PERSISTENCE OF SURFACE TROF.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER
EAST...WITH HIGHER 700 MB THETA-E ALSO SHIFTING EAST.  EXPECTED LACK
OF COOL POOL IN MID-LEVELS AND LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEAD US
TO REMOVE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SUNDAY MORNING ALSO KEPT DRY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO LOWER
ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION OF LOW POPS IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND/OR SOME
SEMBLANCE OF DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE INTO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS ON
MONDAY.  EXPECTED DRY-SLOTTING MONDAY NIGHT WARRANTS REMOVAL OF POPS
FROM NORTHWEST.

HUGE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAKE FOR
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE LATER PERIODS.  HOWEVER...LOW
CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED OR INCREASED AS POLAR FRONT WILL LIKELY
BRING MOISTURE WITH IT WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17


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