Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 280936
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
436 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level analysis reveals 597 dam ridge of high pressure
centered over the desert southwest. Small disturbances coming off
the Rockies are moving over the Central and Southern Plains in
northwesterly flow aloft. A broken line of storms is pushing
southeast and is trying to clip the eastern OK panhandle early
this morning.

A more robust shortwave will move through the northwesterlies
tomorrow. The GFS and NAM show a 50-60KT speed max developing
tomorrow evening as the shortwave strengthens over KS/NE. This
will be the focus area for the initial development of what is
expected to become a MCS and move through the eastern OK/TX
Panhandles by late evening/early Friday morning. Ahead of the
MCS...a lee low will develop in southeastern CO which will help
pull moisture into the area on southeasterly winds. An axis of
60-65 dew points over the OK Panhandle and eastern TX Panhandle
will help fuel any storms that develop. Instability and shear will
also be favorable for severe storms in these areas with MLCAPE
over 1500 J/kg and 40-50kts of effective bulk shear as a 30-40KT
low level jet gets going adjacent to the 500mb speed max. While
large hail can`t be ruled out... expect main threat to be damaging
winds per steep low-mid level lapse rates and modest LI.

Continued northwesterly flow with decent low level moisture and
the possibility of a stationary boundary in the area will result
in another chance for strong thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening. The upper level ridge then starts to push back to the
east and amplify some Saturday into Sunday. Storm chances will
begin decreasing and temperatures increasing especially as we get
into the Sunday/Monday period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                97  70  93  68  96 /  10  20  20  20  20
Beaver OK                  96  67  87  67  94 /  20  60  20  30  20
Boise City OK              96  63  86  62  95 /  10  20  20  30  20
Borger TX                  99  72  93  70  98 /  10  30  20  30  20
Boys Ranch TX              99  71  93  67  99 /  10  10  20  30  20
Canyon TX                  97  69  94  66  96 /  10  10  20  30  20
Clarendon TX               97  69  94  69  97 /  10  20  20  20  20
Dalhart TX                 98  67  91  65  98 /  10  20  20  30  20
Guymon OK                  98  67  90  66  98 /  10  30  20  30  20
Hereford TX                98  69  94  67  97 /  10   5  20  30  20
Lipscomb TX                96  69  89  68  95 /  20  60  20  30  20
Pampa TX                   97  68  91  68  96 /  10  30  20  30  20
Shamrock TX                96  69  94  69  96 /  10  40  30  30  20
Wellington TX              98  71  94  71  98 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

7/11



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