Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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548
FXUS64 KAMA 231607 CCA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
938 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.UPDATE...An upper level ridge axis is passing over the region this
morning, and will transite east of the region as we continue into
the afternoon and evening hours. A low to mid level jet stream will
align SW-NE over the Sangre de Christo and Sacremento Mountains of
New Mexico, which will help bring winds between 20 to 30 MPH with
higher gusts to the western Panhandles. Due to the downsloping
nature of these winds, relative humidity values will drop into the
lower 20% range in the western Panhandles, potentially bringing
elevated fire weather conditions through 6 PM this evening. Have
updated the forecast grids to align with present trends for winds,
temperatures and RH. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on
track.

Bieda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 520 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period. Winds
today will be out of the SSW and SW gusting up to 30 kts throughout
the day before 00Z Tuesday. Once we go past 00Z Tuesday, winds will
diminish around 10 kts. Winds will then pick up again toward the very
end of the TAF period around 15 kts out of the SW as a cold front
begins to work into the region. With the exception of a few high
clouds, no precipitation is expected throughout the forecast period.

Meccariello

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 313 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge over the Panhandles early will gradually push east by
late today as a closed upper low tracks east out of the western
states and Great Basin region today...and across the central Rockies
tonight and early Tuesday. The closed upper low will continue moving
east across the central Plains states by late Tuesday and the Midwest
Tuesday night. A deepening surface low today over eastern Colorado
with a surface trough extending south to near the Texas and New
Mexico state line will remain fairly stationary today and tonight.
The pressure gradient is expected to tighten with the strongest winds
expected over portions of the western Texas Panhandle.

The deepening surface low and surface trough will then track east
into the central Plains states and the Panhandles Tuesday as a strong
cold front pushes south out of southwest Kansas. The cold front
should move south into the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles by
late Tuesday and then across the remainder of the forecast area
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Much colder but dry conditions expected
the middle of the week and into the upcoming weekend. A reinforcing
shot of colder air expected Thursday night or early Friday. A
moderating trend possible by early next week with continued dry
conditions expected.

Schneider

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions appear to be shaping up for portions
of the western...southwestern and south central Texas Panhandle
today. Despite the recent precipitation/rainfall...1-hour fuels as
of Sunday have now fallen to around 5 to 6 percent across much of the
forecast area and should continue to fall today and Tuesday with dry
along with breezy to windy conditions expected. Also...the fire
danger rating has risen into the moderate to high category as of
Sunday and this should also experience a continued increase today
and Tuesday. Deepening surface low pressure to the lee of the Rockies
will allow for downsloping southwest to west 20 foot winds to
increase to near 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph by early
this afternoon. Minimum afternoon relative humidities near 20 percent
are also expected across much of the western portions of the Texas
Panhandle today.

Tuesday...a vigorous surface low pressure system moving east across
Kansas will allow for a strong cold front to push south into the
Oklahoma and portions of the northern Texas Panhandles Tuesday
afternoon. Ahead of the cold front and surface low pressure...a pre-
frontal surface trough will push east out of New Mexico and across
the Panhandles during the day Tuesday. Downsloping 20 foot west winds
are expected to increase to around 25 to 35 mph with gusts near 45
mph by Tuesday afternoon. Minimum relative humidities are also
expected to fall to around 20 percent or so across much of the
Panhandles. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible once
again Tuesday across a much broader area of the Panhandles.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

98/7



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