Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 161711 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SOME
MODELS HINTING AT LIFR CONDITIONS FROM 07Z TO ABOUT 15Z WITH LOW FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN.  CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LOW DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM HURRICANE ODILE OVER THE
AREA KEEPING TEMPS WARMER THAN MODELS SUGGEST.

FOR KDHT AND KGUY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
VERY LOW POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS 09Z-14Z.

BEAT/JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE MORNING PRODUCTS AS VISIBILITIES ARE
RAPIDLY IMPROVING WITH THE ONSET OF SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN TO LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THESE ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP. HOWEVER, AT LEAST A BROKEN DECK OF STRATUS/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO, SO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK
DOWNWARD WAS MADE TO HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS WITH IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AT KAMA AND KDHT...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KGUY.  BY AFTERNOON...SOUTH SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ASSISTING IN THE
EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE REMAIN FOCUSED UPON THE POTENTIAL
FOR WEATHER IMPACTS EMANATING FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES YESTERDAY HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CORE OF A PARENT
1020 MB SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TODAY...WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES BY AFTERNOON AND
MODERATION OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.

BY FAR THE MOST OBVIOUS WEATHER FEATURE APPARENT IN CURRENT VAPOR
IMAGERY IS THE IMMENSE UPPER AIR PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE. SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT HAS ALREADY EDGED NORTHEASTWARD OVER WEST
TEXAS...AND WILL REMAIN OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN THE DAYS AHEAD...CONTRIBUTING TO A DAILY MENTION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RECENT NWP HAS DONE
LITTLE TO INCREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE HANDLING OF ODILE/S
REMNANTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE
DEPICTED A GENERAL SHEARING OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE/FORCING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A FEW HAVE TRANSLATED THE REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MORE DIRECT IMPACT FROM ODILE AND
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS PLAINS CENTERED ON THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD MATERIALIZE. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE
40 PERCENT GRIDDED POPS OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

A COHERENT SIGNAL REMAINS FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR IF ANY MOISTURE RECEIVED FROM ODILE WOULD STILL BE LINGERING.
IT IS POSSIBLE HIGHER RAIN/STORM CHANCES MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH LATER UPDATES.

LINDLEY

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

EA/MB/JJ




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