Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 021144 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
644 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ISOLD MORNING TSTMS AROUND KAMA SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AROUND 14Z. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OK AND
TX PNHDLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
LOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THIS FCST CYCLE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. RETREATS
WESTWARD SOME TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TODAY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS AND CLOUDS ENCOMPASS THE AREA. FALLING
HEIGHTS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING OFF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL PROVIDE SOME SURFACE SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW HELPING TO SPREAD HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS THERE AS BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO 30 TO NEAR 40KTS...MAINLY THE DIRECTIONAL VARIETY
BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO BEGIN WITH. MOISTENING AND GENERALLY
WARM PROFILES IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE INDICATE THAT LARGER HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...BUT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE BIGGER HAZARD.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND
QUITE AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN AN AREA OF GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS DISTURBANCES
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR FRIDAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON MONDAY...A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO START THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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