Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 230423
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1123 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
14Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 00Z TO 02Z
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF
SITES BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z THURSDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH
AND INCREASING TO AROUND 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE DALHART TAF SITE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF THE THREE TAF SITES...BUT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. ALSO...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THEN INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO 15Z
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY NOT THINKING THAT AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY AS NOT EXPECTED WIND GUSTS TO REACH OR
EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED IN CASE ONE IS NEEDED LATER.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE TODAY AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST.

DRYLINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD FRONT
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOME SIGNS THAT DRYLINE COULD SET UP AGAIN SATURDAY.  HAVE RETAINED
LOW POPS IN EASTERN HALF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BIGGER STORY
MAY BE WINDS WEST OF DRYLINE.  DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WELL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT LEADS TO COOLER CONDTIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

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