Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 211130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
530 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

12Z TAF Cycle

VFR to MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected at all three TAF
sites through 12Z Sunday. Rain showers will be possible at the
Amarillo...Dalhart and Guymon TAF sites later today between 20Z
today and 02Z Sunday. Light rain and light snow are expected mainly
at the Dalhart and Guymon TAF sites after 01Z and 08Z Sunday.
Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots will increase to around 10 to 20 knots
at the Guymon and Dalhart TAF sites around 14Z to 17Z today. The
southwest winds may gust to around 25 to 30 knots at the Dalhart TAF
site after 16Z to 17Z today. The Amarillo TAF site will see the
southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots increase to around 15 to 25 knots
with gusts to 25 to 30 knots after 16Z to 17Z today. Winds will shift
at all three TAF sites to the northwest and north 20 to 30 knots with
gusts near 40 knots around 01Z to 03Z Sunday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

Latest 21/00Z model and probabilistic guidance continues to bring
chances of precipitation across the Panhandles today through the
overnight period. Latest numerical guidance has shifted the more
steadier precipitation across the northern TX and central and eastern
OK Panhandles associated with a good deformation zone setup north and
northwest of upper level low and its associated developing surface
low pressure system. At this time, greatest QPF values will be in
that deformation zone in our northern areas where some locations
could receive over a tenth of an inch of precipitation by late
tonight. With good mid level lapse rates and even some instability,
cannot rule out the chance of some isolated thunder as well. The main
upper level low pressure system will be moving east within the
vicinity of the I-40 corridor during the afternoon hours according to
the latest 00Z data. With this said, most of the region should
experience winds under 20 kts throughout most of the daytime hours
with the exception of the far SW TX Panhandle which could be somewhat
removed from the center of the low pressure system and have a height
gradient set up just to their south to have winds gust over 25 kts at
times. Otherwise, as we go into the evening hours, a cold front will
move through the region as the main surface low moves east toward
Childress by the overnight hours. As the main 250 hPa jet builds up
the ridge upstream of our region in the wake of the cold front, winds
will shift to the northwest and pick up again tonight into Sunday
morning. Some wind headlines maybe needed, but will be further
assessed by the next forecast package. In-conjunction with the
northwesterly flow, some leftover moisture on the backside of the
upper level system will be cold enough to support a rain/snow mix,
especially across the central and western Panhandles. Snowfall
accumulations are expected to be very light, with a tenth or two of
an inch of accumulation at most.

As we go into early next week, a ridge will develop over the
Panhandles moderating temperatures above average for mid January. By
the time we get into the day on Tuesday, a surface low will develop
across western Kansas and with a strong 850-500 hPa height gradient
associated with a upper level trough and cold front moving trough
the region, winds will pick up once again and be quite gusty.
Although min RH values will be around 25%, winds could gust over 30
kts could cause an increase in fire spread potential. Will have
continue to monitor and update accordingly as we get closer with
time. Any precipitation on Tuesday looks to be limited with the best
chances across the far NW OK Panhandles near the developing surface

Once we look past Tuesday, a large domain of upper level convergence
associated with a deepening positive tilted trough over the western
CONUS will keep our region dry. Temperatures will also slowly
moderate behind the passing cold front to near average by the end of
the week.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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