Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 300541 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1240 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED OUT OF THE REGION AND ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE IN FAR NW CORNER AT
BEST FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NRN AREAS MAY STAY IN STRATUS MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...BUT SOUTH SEEMS TO BE CLEARING. POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS
TO DRIFT BACK INTO SOUTHERN AREAS CONTINUES TO BE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK...BUT GENERALLY THINKING THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN BASED ON SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...IE THE NARRE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR
TONIGHT AND JUST MADE SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS.

GITTINGER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH A PRIOR COLD FRONT IS HELPING BRING
COOL AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE TAF SITES.  DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
LEVEL STRATUS HAS RESULTED IN IFR TO MVFR CIG AT KAMA AND
KGUY...WITH KDHT NOT TOO FAR FROM DEVELOPING STRATUS.  THE STRATUS
DECK WILL CONTINUE UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THRU ABOUT 03/12Z.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH MIXING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HELP CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE LOW CIG BTWN
03/12Z AND 03/20ZZ.  AFT 03/20Z...A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE AND
COOL AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 5K FT
AGL TO TAF LOCATIONS.  AFTER THE TAF PERIOD...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
APPROACHES ON SUNDAY.

BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN NEW
MEXICO ARE STARTING TO FILTER INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LIGHT
DRIZZLY RAIN CONTINUES TO AFFECT SOME OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. THE CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING...A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND BRING SOME BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE 20S AND LOW 30S. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE...MOST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL BREAK OUT OF
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SEE A BRIEF WARM UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT BASIN
SLIDES EAST AND BRINGS THE CLOUDS BACK FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST AND SPREADING EASTWARD SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...CHANCES FOR PRECIP END ON MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN ABOUT
HOW THE LOW MOVES AWAY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO PINCH OFF SOME ENERGY FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND TURN IT INTO
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ON TUESDAY. THE CANADIAN TRIES THIS SCENARIO
WEDNESDAY. WITH ALL OTHER MODELS PUSHING THE LOW AWAY...HAVE
DETERMINED FOR NOW TO USE A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS. WHILE
RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WESTERN US...MODELS INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE RIDGE AND BRING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO THE AREA FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY FOR OUR WESTERN HALF. WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORWARD
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS RIDGING FILLS IN OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY AND THE
80S RETURN BY WEEKS END AFTER THE COOL BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

BEAT

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$



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