Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 161120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
620 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017


For the 12Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period. Only
item of interest will be the breezy wind speeds this afternoon
before calming down around sunset.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 329 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

A cool surface ridge over the forecast area this morning will
shift south and east today as surface low pressure develops to the
lee of the Rockies across eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico.
Downsloping southwesterly surface winds today through Wednesday
will allow for a warming trend while an upper ridge over the
southwestern states provides subsidence through the middle of the
week. Generally clear skies and dry conditions will prevail across
the forecast area through mid week. A surface trough will push
into the Panhandles Wednesday through Thursday before
reestablishing itself across eastern Colorado and eastern New
Mexico again Friday.

A cold front will then push across the Panhandles by late
Saturday and Saturday evening. Chances for convection can be
expected Saturday and Saturday night along and ahead of the cold
front. A northern stream upper trough will track south and east
across the Rockies Friday night and approach the Panhandles
Saturday and Saturday night. The upper trough should push through
the forecast area by 12Z Sunday as the cold front surges south and
east away from the Panhandles. Cooler but drier conditions
expected late in the weekend and early next week as an upper high
builds over the southwestern states.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following
     zones: Deaf Smith...Oldham...Potter...Randall.



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