Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 200352
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1052 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BELIEVE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE EAST
OF THE TERMINALS SO WILL OMIT ANY MENTION FROM THE TAFS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
DESTABILIZE THINGS. THESE HIGHER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH KDHT AND KGUY SUNDAY EVENING...TURNING
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEN ON RADAR AT THIS TIME
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS IN
REGION WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

SUNDAY MORNING POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT...BUT HAVE TRIMMED SAME IN CENTRAL
SECTIONS...WHERE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK.  CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SHARP MID-
LEVEL TROF SHOULD GENERATE ASCENT.

HAVE REALIGNED SUNDAY EVENING POPS...NOW WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF EXPECTED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IN REGION OF RICHER MOISTURE.  HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN EASTERN SECTIONS...WHERE EXPECTED FINAL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ENCOUNTERS 850 MB COLD FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING HAVE BEEN KEPT DRY.  INHERITED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON POPS IN FAR EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED WESTWARD...WHERE MOISTURE AHEAD OF DRYLINE EXPECTED TO
BE POSITIONED.   HAVE LIKEWISE INTRODUCED POPS IN EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  REMAINING PERIODS HAVE BEEN LEFT DRY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AND ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/11




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