Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 010927
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
415 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.  LOW SHOWER POPS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT HAVE BEEN REDUCED FURTHER AND ARE NOW FOR FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS ONLY...WHERE LATE DAY VORTICITY MAXIMUM COULD CAUSE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR INVERTED SURFACE TROF.  COULD ALSO BE SOME DRIFT
OF SHOWERS INTO THIS AREA VIA NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

SATURDAY MORNING POPS IN SOUTHWESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN
REMOVED...DUE TO EXPECTED LACK OF FORCING AND WEAK WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW.  CONTINUED DRY FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS.

ALTHOUGH LOW- AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AND EXPECTED LACK OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEAD US TO KEEP FORECAST DRY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH MODERATE DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE...BUT WARM 500
MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ALL BUT NORTHERN SECTIONS.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS ACCORDINGLY.

MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IN PANHANDLES...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  LOW POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED
ALL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 25
PERCENT.  NO EXCESSIVE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                82  61  82  62  85 /   5   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  89  59  90  63  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              83  60  86  59  87 /  10  10   5   5   5
BORGER TX                  85  65  87  65  88 /   0   5   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              84  61  84  63  88 /  10  10   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  81  60  81  60  85 /   5   5  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               84  63  87  65  86 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 81  59  82  59  86 /  10  20   5   5   5
GUYMON OK                  87  61  90  62  89 /   0   5   5   0   5
HEREFORD TX                78  58  81  57  84 /  10  10  10   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                88  60  88  63  89 /   0   0   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   83  60  86  61  85 /   0   0   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                85  59  89  64  88 /   0   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              86  60  90  66  89 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03



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