Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 232325
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
625 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Surface winds will
remain light overnight before shifting to a more southerly direction
around midday tomorrow.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 305 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016/
A weak cold front is moving across the combined Panhandles this
afternoon and is expected to become a stationary boundary oriented SW
to NE from Palo Duro Canyon to Canadian this evening. The main
impact from this feature will be light northerly winds up to 10 MPH
and slightly cooler overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s north
of the front, and variable winds around 5 to 10 MPH with lows in the
upper 40s south of the front. The stationary front will retreat
northward through the day on Monday though high temperatures will be
quite similar to today, and only a couple of degrees warmer in the
northern combined Panhandles. The retreating boundary, though, will
allow southerly winds to return around 10 MPH throughout Monday
afternoon and evening.
A weak weather disturbance will approach the combined Panhandles on
Tuesday, with a weak dryline feature setting up over the central
portion of the region Tuesday afternoon. The most favorable dynamics
and moisture with the passage of this disturbance will mainly be
over the far northeastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma Panhandles.
Latest model guidance suggests that our northeastern zones may see
around 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and bulk shear around 35 to 40
kts. Some uncertainty does exist as to the timing of the short wave
trough and afternoon instability, but the variability in the ensemble
guidance only is between whether the activity is further east away
from the Panhandles or not. Therefore, the forecast will show a
slight chance of thunderstorms in our eastern row of counties in the
combined Panhandles. One thing that is much more certain is that
southwesterly winds around 15 to 25 MPH with higher gusts be present the
area Tuesday afternoon, which will bring in warmer and drier air.
high temperatures on Tuesday should be in the low to mid 80s. The
remainder of the work week will have a strengthening ridge building
over our region, resulting in high temperatures being near record to
record values (mid to upper 80s) Thursday and Friday as well as dry
AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...DHT and GUY will see
some gusty N-NE winds for next few hours behind a weak front.
Otherwise this boundary will have little implications on the TAFs.
Dry atmosphere will prevail with VFR conditions expected through the