Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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899
FXUS64 KAMA 242354
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
654 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
North northwest surface winds will diminish slowly this evening,
with gusts above 30 kt expected to continue past 06z.  Cold air
advection will utilize wrap-around moisture from departing strong
closed low to promote the development of MVFR to VFR stratocumulus
this evening.  Amendments may be forthcoming regarding timing of
improvement.  Northwest surface winds cease gusting between 06z
and 12z Saturday as pressure gradient relaxes.  Light northwest
winds Saturday morning will trend to west and southwest by day`s
end as next lee trof develops over eastern New Mexico.  Clear sky
expected on Saturday with no visibility restrictions foreseen.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 403 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The vigorous closed upper low over the extreme eastern Texas
Panhandle late today will exit the Panhandles by this evening with
skies clearing behind the departing upper low as subsidence
prevails. The strong northwest and north winds will slowly subside
after 00Z to 05Z Saturday. An upper ridge will build in over the
Panhandles early this weekend but will quickly move east by Sunday
as another Southern stream closed upper low approaches the
Panhandles from the west by Sunday. Some rain showers will be
possible Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening across mainly the
Oklahoma and the extreme northern and northeastern Texas
Panhandles but drier conditions will return by Monday. A cold
front will push south and east across the forecast area late
Sunday or early Sunday night.

An upper ridge builds in briefly across the Panhandles Monday
before another Southern stream closed upper low approaches the
forecast area from the southwestern states Tuesday. Better chances
for convection likely Tuesday through the middle of next week as
a surface wave tracks east out of New Mexico and across the
Southern Plains of Texas and then across the Red River Valley. The
closed upper low forecast to track much further south than the
closed upper low today and also the one on Sunday. Increased
chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday
before the upper low lifts northeast into the Central Plains and
Midwestern states by next Thursday. The showers and thunderstorms
will end from the north and west by early Thursday with drier
conditions expected after 18Z Thursday. Another Southern stream
closed upper low forecast to approach the Panhandles again by next
weekend bringing additional chances for convection. A very
unsettled weather pattern the next 7 to 10 days and an active
Southern stream pattern.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                37  70  44  72  40 /   0   0   0   5   5
Beaver OK                  38  69  41  72  40 /  10   0   0  30  20
Boise City OK              31  67  37  63  34 /   0   0   0  20   5
Borger TX                  38  72  45  74  41 /   5   0   0   5   5
Boys Ranch TX              35  72  42  72  37 /   0   0   0   5   5
Canyon TX                  37  71  44  73  39 /   0   0   0   5   0
Clarendon TX               40  72  45  76  43 /   0   0   0   5   5
Dalhart TX                 31  69  38  66  34 /   0   0   0  10   5
Guymon OK                  34  69  40  69  37 /   5   0   0  10  10
Hereford TX                36  71  43  72  38 /   0   0   0   5   0
Lipscomb TX                40  70  44  76  43 /  10   0   0  20  10
Pampa TX                   37  69  45  72  41 /   5   0   0   5   5
Shamrock TX                42  71  45  78  45 /   5   0   0   5   5
Wellington TX              42  72  45  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...
     Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore...
     Ochiltree...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Collingsworth...Hemphill...Lipscomb...Wheeler.

OK...High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron...Texas.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Beaver.


&&

$$

03/36



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