Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 290346 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1046 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

Showers and thunderstorms moving southeast from Colorado and western
Kansas will try to make a run at the GUY and DHT TAF sites overnight.
For now confidence is highest that GUY will get a thunderstorm, so
have mentioned a tempo group there. It may be more showery if they
get anything at DHT so have left the mention out there. Confidence is
not very high in the wind direction after these showers and storms
move by, we will likely have a wind shift to the northeast at DHT and
GUY in association with an outflow boundary, but just when the winds
will start to shift back around to the southeast is just about
anyone`s guess at this point. AMA should remain rain free tonight and
any outflow boundaries are expected to stay north. More thunderstorms
will be possible Friday afternoon and they will likely form along
any outflow boundaries that are left over from tonight. For now have
left any mention of Friday afternoon convection out since it will be
very tough to try to determine where the outflow boundaries will end
up this far out. Skies are expected to remain VFR outside of


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 552 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/

A few thunderstorms may move into the DHT and GUY TAF sites this
evening, so have added a tempo group for these sites. Strong winds
and brief heavy rain will be possible with these storms. The storms
are not expected to make it to AMA this evening. A cold front will
move into the DHT and GUY TAF sites late tonight shifting the winds
around to the north. The front is expected to stall before it gets to
AMA, so will continue with southerly winds there. Winds at GUY and
DHT will gradually become more easterly during the day on Friday and
DHT may even have southeast winds by late Friday afternoon. Wind
speeds are expected to remain at 10 knots or less outside of the
thunderstorms. Skies will remain VFR outside of thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 517 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/

An upper level ridge of high pressure situated over the srn Great
Basin and an upper level trof of low pressure across the ecntrl and
ern states will persist through Saturday night, with the fcst area in
nw flow aloft, which is favorable for steering storms from sern CO
and nern NM into our area. Have gone with slgt chc to chc pops
tonight through Saturday night across most of the area. Some storms
durg this time period may become strong to severe, with damaging
winds and large hail the primary hazards. In addition, heavy
rainfall will likely accompany the strongest storms, and may lead to
localized flooding or flash flooding.

The upper level ridge of high pressure is then progged to expand
north and east again beginning Sunday and continuing thru the middle
of next week. This will result in a general drying trend with any
threat for showers and tstms confined to mainly nwrn zones by next
Tuesday and Wednesday. The threat of showers and tstms may spread
further east and south across the area again next Thursday. Numerical
weather models are in general agreement with the overall upper air
pattern and were accepted.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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