Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 261122 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
622 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

Winds are expected to remain below 10 knots through this forecast.
Skies will remain VFR.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/

The majority of the forecast period will have tranquil weather
conditions followed by a return chances of showers and thunderstorms
starting at the end of the work week. Latest 26/00Z model and
probabilistic data shows an upper level ridge developing as its main
axis reaching poleward well into the western Dakotas. With quasi-
stationary upper level low pressure systems well to the northeast and
the southwest of the Panhandles, this should hold steady the ridge
over the Panhandles and lock in tranquil conditions throughout the
Panhandles for the majority of the week. Temperatures will remain
above average and then cool off to near average as we go towards the
end of the work week.

As we go into the weekend, the mean upper level flow will shift back
to southwesterly advecting some moisture in from the eastern Pacific. This
will advect some weak vorticity perturbations into the northern TX
and OK Panhandles downstream of the small trough axis to our west in
the mean 500 hPa flow. As the main upper level ridge continues to
de-amplify well into south Texas by the weekend, a more zonal flow
will develop providing the best diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms across the northern and eastern combined Panhandles
through Sunday. As we go into early next week, more favorable jet
dynamics along a southern stream jet will nose into the region in-
conjunction with a large strip of PVA moving east across the Great
Basin. This will provide better chances of precipitation as we go
into early next week, especially across the central and eastern



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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