Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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656
FXUS64 KAMA 221540 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1040 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Morning SHRAs have dissipated for now, but anticipate
redevelopment of ISO/SCT storms with heating this afternoon.
Think best chance will actually be a bit east of where we showed
previously along H85-H7 theta-e ridge axis which extends from the
ern OK Panhandle SW through Canyon. This narrow moist tongue in
just east of a weak sfc trough that has turned winds NRLY across
the NW Panhandles and is also just on the east side of a subtle
upper low centered across the area within a weakness in the ridge.
NAM seems to have best handle on this and it develops best
convection just east of area where we saw this mornings activity.
Based on this, bumped POPs up to 30 along a narrow band across portions
of Armstrong and Gray County with 10-20 POPs most areas
otherwise. Hopefully the storms won`t disrupt any outdoor
activities at Palo Duro Canyon or other outdoor destinations
today. Lowered POPs to 10s in some of the west which is in the dry
sector seen on WV imagery. Still may have some mountain
convection approach from the west as well this evening. We are not
outlooked currently for any severe potential today, but not sure
we can completely rule out some brief pulse severe storm. Don`t
think these changes will have major impact on hot high temp
forecast and didn`t make any adjustments to those for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                98  69  92  68  91 /  20  20  40  40  20
Beaver OK                 104  72  95  69  95 /  10  20  40  30  30
Boise City OK              96  65  87  64  91 /  20  30  50  50  20
Borger TX                 103  72  95  71  95 /  20  20  40  40  20
Boys Ranch TX             100  69  93  68  94 /  10  20  40  40  20
Canyon TX                  97  69  91  67  91 /  20  20  40  40  20
Clarendon TX               99  71  94  70  94 /  20  20  40  30  30
Dalhart TX                 99  66  91  64  92 /  10  30  40  40  20
Guymon OK                 102  69  92  67  95 /  10  20  40  40  20
Hereford TX                97  69  91  66  91 /  20  20  40  30  20
Lipscomb TX               103  72  96  70  95 /  20  20  30  30  30
Pampa TX                  100  70  94  69  93 /  20  20  40  40  30
Shamrock TX               102  73  97  72  96 /  10  10  30  40  40
Wellington TX             103  73  98  72  97 /   5  10  30  40  30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 915 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

UPDATE...
There is a small upper level disturbance directly over the
Panhandle within a broader weakness in the ridge. This is
combination with a moist and unstable h7-h5 layer has produced a
few slow moving showers which are close to producing lightning
over srn AMA that models pretty much missed. We have updated to
show 20-30 POPS this morning across this area and we need to re-
evaluate how this upper feature will impact POPs across central
panhandles late this aftn and tonight as 12Z model data comes in.
if needed, we will update again for higher POPS in the aftn
period.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

MJG



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