Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
FXUS64 KAMA 241147 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
647 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

For the 12Z TAFS, a plume of moist air will continue to invade the
region durg this fcst period. This moisture, combined with daytime
heating and an unstable atmosphere, will cause the development of
scattered to numerous tstms today and tonight. Have incorporated
PROB30 groups at all terminal sites for tstm psblty beginning late
this afternoon through most of this evening. A cold front will move
across the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles late this evening
and tonight..and have reflected this in the fcst with winds becoming
north and northeast at both KGUY and KDHT.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 439 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

Upper trough over the central Rockies and Four Corners region will
track slowly east today and tonight towards the Panhandles. A cold
front over southwest Kansas and southeastern Colorado will push
slowly south and east today into the Oklahoma Panhandle and then into
the Texas Panhandle by late tonight or early Thursday. The front
should become stationary across the Texas Panhandle by late Thursday
before starting to push slowly south again Thursday night and early
Friday. Convection chances will increase through the end of the week
with the possibility for some storms to become strong to marginally
severe this afternoon and this evening...and again Thursday afternoon
and evening. Main threats will be damaging thunderstorm wind gusts to
around 60 mph and hail up to quarter size.

Abundant low level Gulf moisture remains in place over the Panhandles
today ahead of a pre-frontal surface trough now moving southeast
across the northwestern portions of the forecast area. Ahead of the
pre-frontal surface trough...surface dew points remain in the 60s
while behind the surface trough...dew points are in the 50s. Model
soundings forecasting PWATs in the 75th percentile for August today
through Thursday...therefore locally very heavy rainfall resulting in
flooding or flash flooding issues can be expected. Continued
southwesterly flow aloft across the Panhandles into the weekend and
early next week will allow for an active weather pattern as abundant
low level Gulf moisture will remain in place. Convection chances will
continue through early next week.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.