Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 040517 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1217 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
NEXT CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. DHT AND AMA SEEM TO STAND THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. GUY
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...GUY
COULD HAVE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ON THE CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A COMPLEX OF TSTMS WAS ORGANIZING ACROSS NWRN
PARTS OF TX AND OK PNHDLS AS OF THIS WRITING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH TAF SITES POTENTIALLY IMPACTED. HAVE
RETAINED A MENTION OF TSTMS AT ALL TERMINAL SITES FOR A FEW HOURS
LATER THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE NEAR THE
TAF SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SITUATION CONTINUES TO SET UP FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ADVANCING INTO NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO INDUCE
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL TROF.  CURVATURE IN TIGHT 700 MB
CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO GENERATE VORTICITY LOBES WHICH WILL TRAVERSE
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  LOWER LEVELS WILL BE
MOISTENED FURTHER BY DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL JET
TONIGHT.  ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO MAKE A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  SUCH A
COMPLEX COULD TAKE ON A LINEAR STRUCTURE...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

DUE TO RECENT COPIOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH WAS
ISSUED EARLIER TODAY REMAINS IN EFFECT AREA WIDE FROM 4 PM TODAY
THROUGH 10 AM TUESDAY.  FULLY EXPECT TO CLEAR MOST OF AREA FROM WATCH
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...BUT MAY STILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING IN
EASTERN SECTIONS AFTER DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED. DRY FORECAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/17





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