Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 030017
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
617 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERING OF CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE TEMPORARY THIS EVENING. SOME AREAS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MAY BREAK OUT TEMPORARILY FROM THE PERSISTENT
MVFR DECK...BUT FEEL WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 1500 TO 3000 FT AGL...THE CLOUD DECK MAY FILL IN AGAIN
TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED WINDSHEAR TO ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID-MORNING
TUESDAY AS 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING 40 KTS ALREADY AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 60 KTS AROUND 2000 FT TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE A
LITTLE COMPARED TO PAST COUPLE DAYS WORTH OF RUNS. THE COULD BE SOME
SORT OF A MAX TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA LATER TUESDAY
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...NEARLY ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
SNOW PROSPECTS TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NRN ZONES. PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY BEGIN AS EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE TX AND OK PNHDLS. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO
NEXT MONDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/15





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