Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 220920
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
320 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Although still very dry at the surface across the Panhandles with
Td`s in the single digits, current satellite analysis illustrate
low level moisture currently in place across parts of the South
Plains and southeastern NM. As surface winds begin to shift to
southerly by 12Z, some of the hi-res model output, along with the
latest log-p interrogation shows some surface based moisture
advecting north into the region. In-conjunction with some weak but
noticeable low to mid level upglide and some good values of
omega, especially downstream of an upper level perturbation
moving northeast across the region later this morning, enough
ingredients are there to provide some patchy freezing drizzle
starting around or just after 12Z for portions of the southern TX
Panhandle, including Amarillo. This area will shift toward the
east and northeast toward the OK state line into the early
afternoon before we finally clear out toward early evening. With
the latest sounding profiles showing a pretty deep inversion, it
will take a while for temperatures to rebound, especially across
the eastern Panhandle where temperatures may struggle to reach 40
in some spots. For the rest of the region, stronger SW flow
toward the afternoon hours, especially as we begin to clear out
from west to east will result in more mixing with temperatures
advecting +7C to +9C 850-700 hPa into the region bringing high
temps into the lower 50s, which is still below average.

Otherwise, going forward into the remainder of the forecast
period will remain mostly dry. Perturbations in the mean 500 hPa
flow will either move north or east of the Panhandles region as
shown in the latest 00Z model and probabilistic data with a deep
trough in the west and ridge in the eastern CONUS. However, as the
rather persistent mid level anticyclonic feature over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico deamplifies and retrogrades toward the eastern
Mexico coastline, signs are showing a more deepening sinusoidal
pattern over the western CONUS which may introduce some chances of
precipitation going into the middle of next week. Of course being
about a week out, we will monitor and update as time gets closer.
Starting Friday through the remainder of the forecast period,
temperatures will be at or above average.

Meccariello

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for the entire
Panhandles region on Saturday and for the western panhandles on
Sunday and Monday. Min RH values of 11-20% across the entire
region on Saturday with 15-20% min RH for western Panhandles on
Sunday and Monday. 20 ft. winds will also be quite gusty on
Saturday with winds of 15-20 kts shifting from southwesterly in
thew morning to northwesterly in the afternoon. Westerly to
northwesterly 20 ft. winds around 15 kts for the western
Panhandles will continue on Sunday and Monday. As a result, RFTI
values will be 2-3 on Saturday followed by 1 for western areas on
Sunday and Monday.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                49  26  59  34  55 /  20   0   0   5   0
Beaver OK                  39  22  52  31  49 /  10   0   0  10  10
Boise City OK              50  20  55  27  48 /   5   0   0  10   0
Borger TX                  46  28  59  38  54 /  10   0   0   5   0
Boys Ranch TX              52  23  62  30  57 /  10   0   0   5   0
Canyon TX                  50  24  61  33  58 /  20   0   0   5   0
Clarendon TX               42  27  56  36  57 /  20   0   5   5   0
Dalhart TX                 51  20  59  27  52 /   5   0   0   5   0
Guymon OK                  46  21  56  31  51 /  10   0   0  10   0
Hereford TX                51  23  62  31  56 /  10   0   0   5   0
Lipscomb TX                39  26  53  35  52 /  10   0   0   5   5
Pampa TX                   44  27  55  35  52 /  10   0   0   5   0
Shamrock TX                39  25  52  35  58 /  20   0  10  10   5
Wellington TX              39  26  50  36  61 /  20   0  10  10  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

2/29



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