Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 012042
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
340 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY QUIET THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING MCV.  WE HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM TODAY...SINCE THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM HAS DIMINISHED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WITH MOVEMENT INTO OUR WESTERN SECTIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.  LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE VEERED THAN THAT OF LAST
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LESS OVERALL SHEAR AND LESS ORGANIZATION TO
CONVECTION.  STILL...POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
PAST MIDNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH POPS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO OCCUR.

ALL SHORT- AND MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF AT 700 MB DURING THE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.  HAVE INCREASED POPS MOST SECTIONS DURING THESE PERIODS AS
CURVATURE IN FLOW AND FRONTOGENESIS WOULD ADD SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  SHOULD THIS INDEED OCCUR...MORE FLOODING
ISSUES WILL LIKELY ARISE.

LOW POPS RETAINED IN EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRY FORECAST THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  90  67  88  68 /  40  20  40  30  20
BEAVER OK                  70  93  70  89  67 /  20  20  30  30  50
BOISE CITY OK              65  90  66  86  65 /  40  20  30  30  30
BORGER TX                  70  92  70  89  70 /  40  20  30  30  30
BOYS RANCH TX              68  93  69  90  68 /  40  20  40  30  20
CANYON TX                  67  91  68  89  68 /  40  20  40  30  20
CLARENDON TX               69  91  69  89  70 /  30  20  40  30  20
DALHART TX                 67  91  67  89  65 /  40  20  30  30  30
GUYMON OK                  68  93  68  89  67 /  20  20  30  30  40
HEREFORD TX                67  91  68  89  68 /  40  20  40  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                70  92  70  90  70 /  30  20  30  30  40
PAMPA TX                   67  89  67  87  67 /  30  20  30  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                69  92  69  90  69 /  30  20  30  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              70  93  71  92  71 /  30  20  40  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/03




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