Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 162024
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
224 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...Upper level low over southeastern New Mexico this
afternoon is lifting northeast across west Texas bringing with it
high clouds across the eastern Texas Panhandle. At the surface,
lee side cyclogenesis is occurring with noticeable pressure falls
in northeast New Mexico. Associated pressure falls along with lee
side troughing has increased pressure gradients across the area,
bringing with it downsloping southwesterly winds. Fire weather
concerns exists, which are detailed in the fire weather section
below. As the surface low continues to strengthen, it will join
with an approaching cold front and help push it across the
Panhandles late this evening. Winds in association with this cold
front will be northwesterly around 10 to 20 MPH, with high
temperatures being near to slightly cooler tomorrow.

The long awaited pattern shift has started to show signs of
occurring as a longwave trough is currently moving across the
Great Basin of the western United States, which is causing the
prevalent ridge to break down and push west. Model guidance has
indicated that a vort max will pinch off the bottom of this
trough, and become a closed low over the desert southwest. Details
have come into better focus that as this system moves south
across the region Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday morning,
moisture will remain to the south and east of the area. A brief
reprieve will follow with a shortwave ridge passing over, with
another system potentially moving across the region late Thursday
into Friday. Model guidance difference is sufficient enough to
preclude precip chances, as the ECMWF sends the system through the
area as an open wave while the GFS cuts it off over Arizona.

It is as a result of the above mentioned model difference that
will play a major role in how the forecast evolves for the weekend
before Christmas. Both the ECMWF and GFS show an arctic frontal
boundary moving across the combined Panhandles. The uncertainty
remains whether the GFS is correct with the cutoff upper low
Saturday and Sunday, as that could potentially present with winter
weather concerns. If the ECMWF is correct, then any winter weather
precipitation that may fall would be brief. We will continue to
monitor the evolution of the weather pattern for next weekend due
to these concerns.

Bieda

&&

.AVIATION...Previous Discussion...18Z TAFs..
VFR conditions to prevail throughout the 18Z TAF issuance.
Southerly winds have already begun to pick up into the 15 to 20kt
range and are expected to remain in this range through the
afternoon. Winds will decrease around sunset and remain light
until a cold front switches them out of the north overnight
tonight. Given the orientation of the front, KDHT will see this
wind shift first then followed by KGUY and KAMA. There is some
indication that a low stratus could develop post-front at KGUY but
confidence isn`t high enough to mention in prevailing.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Fire Danger Statement continues until 5 PM CST due
to elevated fire weather conditions. South to southwest winds of
15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH, and relative humidity values
around 15 to 20 percent, are being observed. Winds should decrease
around sunset, with relative humidities beginning to recover.
Beyond today, no fire weather conditions of significance are being
forecasted at this time through next Friday.

Bieda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                27  52  28  61  33 /   0   0   0   5   0
Beaver OK                  22  47  21  63  27 /   5   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              23  45  25  60  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  29  51  30  63  36 /   0   0   0   5   0
Boys Ranch TX              24  53  24  63  27 /   0   0   0   5   0
Canyon TX                  25  53  26  61  30 /   0   0   0   5   0
Clarendon TX               28  54  29  60  35 /   5   0   0   5   0
Dalhart TX                 25  49  26  61  28 /   0   0   0   5   0
Guymon OK                  25  46  25  62  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                23  55  26  62  30 /   0   0  10   5   0
Lipscomb TX                29  50  27  63  33 /   5   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   28  51  28  62  34 /   0   0   0   5   0
Shamrock TX                31  53  28  60  34 /  10   0   0   5   0
Wellington TX              31  55  29  61  36 /  10   0   0   5   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

14/98


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