Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 162154
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
454 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A TREND TOWARDS AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS IN THE OFFING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK..DEPENDING ON
MODEL HANDLING.

THE MAIN CULPRIT WHICH WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL WILL BE THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED AND CARRIED NEWD THRU AZ...NM
AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS AND INCLUDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT BASED ON PROGGED MODEL TIMING SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND
GFS. LINGERING SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AROUND SATURDAY. ECMWF
IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A
COMPROMISE.

IT APPEARS EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OFF SRN CA COAST WILL EJECT EWD AND NEWD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND MAY RESULT IN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE DURG THIS TIME PERIOD FOR THIS PCKG
DUE TO MODEL HANDLING DIFFERENCES.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  83  62  81  60 /  10  20  20  20  30
BEAVER OK                  63  90  64  90  64 /   0   5   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              58  88  59  84  58 /   5  10  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  65  87  66  85  63 /   5  10  10  10  20
BOYS RANCH TX              60  84  61  82  60 /   5  20  10  20  30
CANYON TX                  61  83  61  81  60 /  10  20  20  20  30
CLARENDON TX               63  85  64  83  63 /  10  20  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 57  84  60  82  59 /   5  10  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  61  90  62  89  62 /   5  10   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                60  82  60  80  60 /  10  20  20  30  40
LIPSCOMB TX                64  89  64  87  64 /   5  10   5  10  10
PAMPA TX                   63  86  63  84  63 /   5  10  10  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                65  86  64  85  65 /   5  10  10  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              66  86  65  85  65 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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