Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KAMA 041823 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
123 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED LATE AFTN AND EVENING STORMS WILL BE MAIN AVN CONCERN FOR
TODAY WITH STORM INITIATING ALONG THE CO AND NM MOUNTAIN AND MOVING.
GUY AND DHT WILL HAVE GREATEST CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED BY THIS
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 22 AND 02Z...BUT COVERAGE IS TOO ISOLD TO MENTION IN
TAFS. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE STORMS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

MJG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR FOG THIS MORNING AND ANY
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT
OF TAFS FOR NOW...GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. VARIABLE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 TO
15 KTS...GUSTING TO 20 TO 25KTS BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME...BUT SUSTAINED
WINDS MAY REMAIN AT 10 TO 15KTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY.

ELSENHEIMER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD
BE FAR LESS THAN PAST FEW DAYS AND NIGHTS...DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLD TSTMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A STORM OR TWO PSBLY
BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE AGAIN. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE 10 POP RULE FOR TODAY AREAWIDE...INCREASING TO 15 PERCENT
FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE FAR WRN COUNTIES WHERE SLGT CHC POPS WERE RETAINED CLOSE
TO THE NM STATE LINE IN THE EVENT A FEW STORMS DRIFT IN FROM ERN NM
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SHORT AND
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
WERE ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS NOW SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR WED AND THURS...THEN EXPAND INTO THE SRN PLAINS
NEXT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
FOR WED THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPS SEEM LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/88




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.