Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 250506 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1206 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
ISOLD TSTMS MAY FORM DURG THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SPARSE. THEREFORE...CONTINUED TO OMIT
TSTM ELEMENT AT KGUY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
ALL TAF SITES THRU FRIDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FCST CYCLE. HOWEVER...
STORM COVERAGE...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SPARSE.
THEREFORE...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AT THE KGUY
TERMINAL SITE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MAJOR THEME OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH ONLY A FEW
TWEAKS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES.  TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES
STILL EXPECTED MOST SECTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FRIDAY EVENING LOW POPS IN NORTHERN SECTIONS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED TO
INCLUDE ONLY THE NORTHWEST...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED IN
OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME.

HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
DUE TO CONTINUING PRESENCE OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...POPS COVER ALL SECTIONS.  HAVE INCREASED POPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO EXPECTED UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF FRONT.  POPS
ON MONDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN WESTERN SECTIONS...WHERE HIGHER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED.  MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP RICH MOISTURE IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME.  HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED POPS
DURING THESE PERIODS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
HAVE BEEN LOWERED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS MAINLY
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
MOIST FUELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
ELEVATED AND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







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