Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 012337 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE
MUCH LESS THAN OBSERVED RECENTLY IF STORMS DEVELOP. FOR THIS REASON
PLUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHICH TAF SITE...IF ANY...WILL BE IMPACTED...
HAVE OMITTED THIS WEATHER ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF CYCLE. ANOTHER CROP
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS PSBL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE REFRAINED
FROM INCLUDING IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME SINCE IT IS NEAR THE END OF
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY QUIET THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING MCV.  WE HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM TODAY...SINCE THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM HAS DIMINISHED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WITH MOVEMENT INTO OUR WESTERN SECTIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.  LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE VEERED THAN THAT OF LAST
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LESS OVERALL SHEAR AND LESS ORGANIZATION TO
CONVECTION.  STILL...POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
PAST MIDNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH POPS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO OCCUR.

ALL SHORT- AND MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF AT 700 MB DURING THE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.  HAVE INCREASED POPS MOST SECTIONS DURING THESE PERIODS AS
CURVATURE IN FLOW AND FRONTOGENESIS WOULD ADD SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  SHOULD THIS INDEED OCCUR...MORE FLOODING
ISSUES WILL LIKELY ARISE.

LOW POPS RETAINED IN EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRY FORECAST THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







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