Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 250532 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Westerly winds will gradually turn around to the north and
northeast behind a cold front on Tuesday. The cold front should
move through GUY and DHT during the afternoon and then through
AMA Tuesday evening. Showers are expected to develop behind the
cold front with the best chances at DHT and GUY. In fact, GUY may
have MVFR cigs by the end of this forecast. DHT and AMA are
expected to remain VFR.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 634 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

For the 00Z TAFs, a surface trof of low pressure will move across
the forecast area late this evening and tonight with winds
becoming more westerly. A cold front is then expected to move
through KGUY Tuesday morning, then across KDHT late Tuesday
afternoon with northwest, north, and northeast winds in its wake.
This cold front is not expected to move through KAMA until just
beyond this fcst cycle. Some thunderstorms may develop across the
northern zones late Tuesday afternoon as an upper level storm
system begins to approach from the four corners region. Due to low
confidence this far out in time as to where, when, or if any
storms may form, have decided not to mention this weather element
for this TAF issuance. The greater threat for showers and tstms
will occur Tuesday night, which is just beyond this fcst period.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 414 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

Frontal boundary which dipped into the central Oklahoma Panhandle
today will remain nearly stationary tonight, and is expected to
move into northeast parts of the Combined Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles on Tuesday.  Thunderstorm pops retained for Tuesday
afternoon across northern one-third of forecast area.  Front
makes its move Tuesday evening, moving well south of the area by
midnight.  Healthy thunderstorm pops Tuesday night continue, with
northern sections being most favored as sharp 700 mb trof moving
into the area is accompanied by higher theta-e air.  Very low
threat for severe thunderstorms due to limited low-level moisture.
Lingering rain showers possible Wednesday morning, particularly
over southeast half of area, until downward motions following 700
mb trof commence.

Much cooler conditions expected Wednesday with high temperatures
about 10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal, owing to morning clouds
and cold air advection.  Wednesday night and Thursday morning
should be dry, with next shortwave trof driving any remaining low-
level moisture east of the area.

Significant differences in model solutions by Thursday night,
with prediction of location of surface low development.  Have
stayed close to blended pops Friday onward, as next dynamic closed
mid-level low impacts the area.  Good opportunity for rain and a
few thunderstorms Friday through Saturday, with rain showers
possibly transitioning to snow showers Saturday night in northwest
part of forecast area.  Freezing temperatures possible Saturday
night and Sunday morning.  No pops Sunday through Monday
following departure of mid-level system.  03


Moderate south to southwest winds will persist tonight, with elevated
fire weather conditions continuing well into the evening. A cold
front will move into the northeast half of the Combined Panhandles
on Tuesday. Moderately strong southwest winds ahead of the front
will lead to elevated fire weather conditions across the southern
Texas Panhandle on Tuesday. All locations will have an opportunity
for wetting rains Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The front
will pass south of the area Tuesday night, with north and
northwest winds Tuesday night and Wednesday. Elevated fire weather
conditions may develop on Thursday across the western Texas
Panhandle.  03


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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