Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 242048
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
348 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.Discussion...
Forecast remains largely unchanged. Weak mid- and upper-level flow is
forecast to continue.  Main forcing for thunderstorms will be
moderately strong flow around 850 mb.  Pops kept tonight for mainly
the northwest 2/3 of the forecast area.  Thunderstorms may move into
the far northwest sections from the higher terrain of New Mexico.
Visible satellite imagery reveals cumulus developing across southwest
Texas Panhandle near a weak surface trof.

Models in fair agreement with cold front moving into at least the
northwest half of the area Saturday evening.  Presence of this
boundary warrants higher pops during this period.

For Monday and Tuesday, weakness in mid-level height field is
forecast by many ensemble members to move north into Panhandles,
supporting higher pops across southern sections.

By Wednesday, developing northwest flow offers some hope of improving
dynamics and perhaps another frontal intrusion.  Chances for
thunderstorms continue through Friday.

Cockrell

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                69  94  68  90  67 /  10  20  20  40  30
Beaver OK                  73  97  69  92  69 /  10  30  40  30  30
Boise City OK              68  92  65  86  64 /  20  40  40  30  30
Borger TX                  73  97  72  92  70 /  10  20  30  40  30
Boys Ranch TX              71  96  67  91  67 /  10  30  40  30  30
Canyon TX                  68  95  68  90  68 /  10  10  20  40  40
Clarendon TX               69  94  71  91  70 /   5   5  10  30  30
Dalhart TX                 69  95  65  89  65 /  20  30  50  30  30
Guymon OK                  71  97  67  90  67 /  20  30  40  30  30
Hereford TX                69  95  67  91  66 /  10  10  20  40  40
Lipscomb TX                72  95  70  92  68 /  10  10  20  30  40
Pampa TX                   71  93  70  90  68 /  10  10  20  40  30
Shamrock TX                70  95  72  93  71 /   5   0   5  40  40
Wellington TX              70  96  74  95  72 /   5   0   5  30  30

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/03



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