Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 152334 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
534 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

For the 00Z TAFs, southwest to south-southwest winds will increase
and become gusty by mid to late Saturday morning as a surface trof
of low pressure deepens over far southeastern CO and extends
southward into eastern NM, leading to a corresponding tight
surface pressure gradient and attendant gusty winds. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will continue at all terminal sites through late
Saturday afternoon.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 358 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/

After the rather cool day across the Panhandles, Saturday will be
rather pleasant with highs reaching into the lower to mid 60s.
These warmer temperatures will be the result of south winds
switching around out of a southwesterly direction.

Late Saturday night into Sunday morning, we will see a cold front
move across the Panhandles to knock our temperatures back into
the 40s and lower 50s. An upper low is expected to move south of
the Panhandles Sunday evening into Monday morning. This low,
coupled with the cold airmass in place, could bring the southern
Texas Panhandle a wintry mix of precip. There is a large degree of
uncertainty with this system given consistent model differences
from run to run. As the forecast stands right now, have left a
rain/snow mix across the southern Texas Panhandle with very light
accumulation, but if the recent drying trend persists that could
be fairly optimistic.

Monday through the end of the forecast will also have a high
degree of uncertainty concerning any additional precip chances due
to the vast differences in model outputs. The general pattern is
that the upper low/open wave over southern New Mexico should
slowly progress to the northeast Monday through Wednesday. The GFS
is the most progressive and driest of the model outputs with the
ECMWF being the slowest and most generous with precip. Have held
onto a dry forecast for now until models come into better
agreement. The second half of the week, will see a deep low
dropping across the Continental Divide Thursday through Friday.

Fuels remain highly susceptible to the spread of fire despite a
brief dip in ERC-G from this morning`s frost. On Saturday, our
winds are expected to increase into the 15 to 25 MPH range with
gusts near 35 MPH by midday. Relative humidity values during the
same time are expected to be in the 15 to 20 percent range. This
will result in elevated to briefly critical fire weather
conditions across all but the southeastern Texas Panhandle
Saturday afternoon. Locations which may experience briefly
critical fire weather conditions are the southwestern Texas
Panhandle where afternoon relative humidities under mostly clear
skies could drop below 15 percent. Given the near record ERC-G
values across the Panhandles, have gone ahead and issued a Fire
Danger Statement for all but the southwestern Texas Panhandle to
ensure ample awareness to the potential fire spread.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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