Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 190821
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT FOLKS AROUND HERE WOULD NOT MIND FINDING SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF EASTER EGGS THIS WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...HALF THE BATTLE IN GETTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IS
ALREADY WON. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. DO THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
SW AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH
EACH MODEL RUN.

LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST. FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SINCE THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SO FAR NORTH
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING TO THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO FAR
EAST SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SO HAVE LEFT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. A WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KNS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                75  54  74  51  77 /  30  30  30  20   0
BEAVER OK                  81  57  77  53  79 /  20  30  50  50   0
BOISE CITY OK              78  51  71  50  74 /  20  20  50  20   0
BORGER TX                  79  59  76  57  80 /  30  30  40  20   0
BOYS RANCH TX              78  54  78  51  80 /  30  30  30  20   0
CANYON TX                  74  54  75  51  79 /  30  30  30  20   0
CLARENDON TX               75  57  75  55  80 /  20  30  40  20   0
DALHART TX                 76  50  73  49  77 /  20  30  40  20   0
GUYMON OK                  80  54  75  51  77 /  20  30  50  20   0
HEREFORD TX                74  53  75  49  77 /  30  30  30  10   0
LIPSCOMB TX                77  57  78  56  78 /  20  30  50  40   0
PAMPA TX                   76  56  75  53  77 /  20  30  50  20   0
SHAMROCK TX                77  57  78  56  79 /  20  30  50  40   0
WELLINGTON TX              79  58  79  56  81 /  20  20  50  30   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$




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