Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 210514 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1214 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Shield of showers along with a few thunderstorms will continue to
move northward through the morning hours. MVFR conditions will be
likely under the stronger showers and storms. The jury is still
out on whether showers and thunderstorms will affect the TAF sites
later on this afternoon into the evening. At this point will not
add any rain to the TAFS later today as confidence is not high.
Southerly winds will increase and get gusty this afternoon and
then they should decrease again toward sunset.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1009 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

Models are all having a tough time handling tropical moisture
streaming up into the region from the south and embedded weak
disturbances that are apparently enough to trigger weak
convection and areas of rain. POPs trend of highest SW and lowest
NE remains, but have increased the POPS most areas (esp cen and
west) based on trends, TTU WRF and sneak peak at the 00z NAM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 656 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

For the 00Z TAFs, showers and tstms will continue to be a threat
during this fcst cycle as a weak upper level storm system slowly
moves across the region late tonight through Monday. It appears
the greatest chance for precipitation will be at KDHT, and have
included VCSH at that site Monday morning. Confidence is lower for
precipitation occurring at KGUY and KAMA so have omitted mention
of this weather element for this fcst. Will continue monitoring
radar trends this evening for possible amendments.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 543 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

South to southwest flow will continue to draw up monsoonal
moisture to the Panhandles. We already have scattered showers
developing across the southern and central Panhandles. Main
concern with these storms would be strong winds. Hail will be
possible, but only expect hail sizes to be small. Models continue
the southwest flow with some embedded shortwaves late this evening
and into the overnight hours. Therefore, showers and storms are
expected to continue during the overnight and early morning
period, across the western and possibly the central Panhandles.

Now for the Solar Eclipse tomorrow.

The western zones will still be under the influence from the
previous system and therefore expect overcast to mostly cloudy
skies. Weak high pressure currently near the San Antonio area,
will become more suppressed with time, and flow will start to
transition to a more west southwest direction. This will occur as
we progress through the day on Monday. While the bulk of the
moisture and precipitation is still expected over the western and
possibly central Panhandles, significant enough cloud cover is
still possible anywhere over the Panhandles during the peak
eclipse time. Right now the forecast stands for mostly cloudy to
cloudy skies for any areas due north and or west of Armstrong
county. East and southeast of Armstrong county will get you closer
to a more optimal viewing area although confidence in clear skies
is not high. It`s possible that areas just south of Randall and
Armstrong County will have limited cloud cover, but right now
only one piece of guidance suggests south of Amarillo may be in a
dry enough area to get most of the low cloud cover out during the
optimal viewing hours. However this same guidance suggests that we
might have some thin mid and high clouds which may not seem like
a cloudy day as far as brightness of the sun goes, but could be
enough of a nuisance for eclipse viewing. Right now it looks like
the Childress area may be a good starting point for the day and
moving south or southeast from that location should continue to be
more beneficial for viewing. Keep in mind the further south you
travel the further away you will be traveling from the path of
totality and thusly sun will be covered less by the moon. If you
remain between the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Dallas/Fort Worth area
the projected eclipse coverage will be in the 70-80 percent range.

Post eclipse forecast.

As flow becomes more westerly cloud coverage will continue to
spread across the Panhandles and late afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expected to return. The suppressed high will
attempt to rebuild over the Mexico, New Mexico, Arizona border and
change our westerly flow to northwest. A large scale longwave
trof will approach the northern Great Lakes area, and a positively
tilted shortwave with a cold front associated. Models are
differing with the time of arrival and the area, northern/southern
Panhandles. But the forcing associated with the shortwave, and
the strong moisture advection near the same area, along with low
shear values aloft, suggest the potential for a line of training
storms to possibly form. This could lead to a flooding/flash
flooding event. Timing and position will need to be monitored to
see if further action will be needed to address this system on
Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday.

Northwest flow will return through Thursday and various
embedded shortwaves will allow for our typical summertime
afternoon and evening convection to occur. Towards the weekend the
flow may begin to shift westerly as a low off the southern
California coast begins to break down and moves east across the
southern states. This in turn will aid in the break down of the
high pressure and northwest flow will transition to a more
westerly flow. Showers and storms will still be possible as ample
moisture is still expected over the Panhandles.


Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period with
increasing high and mid-level clouds through tonight. Can`t
completely rule out some areas of MVFR/IFR mainly across the
western Panhandles early Monday morning as showers and lower
ceilings push into the area in response to an upper level
disturbance. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible this
afternoon and overnight, with highest confidence across the
western Panhandles, so included prob30 at KDHT. Amendments may be
needed if an isolated thunderstorm is able to develop this
afternoon near a terminal. Otherwise, south-southwest winds will
be gusty this afternoon, but should subside to around 10 knots



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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