Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 290604
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
104 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.AVIATION...
For 06z TAFs... Tricky forecast for showers and storms in the
area. Currently an area of MVFR/IFR TSRA over the eastern
Panhandles are slowly moving east. The rest of the area is VFR.
Will be watching for additional development over the morning hours
for possible ammendments...but not enough confidence in location
or timing to include in TAFs except for KAMA where an area of
showers and possibly thunder is expected to be in the vicinity
later this morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 217 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An MCV located near Amarillo, TX early this afternoon will combine
with plenty of moisture and instability to help produce showers and
thunderstorms across the eastern panhandles this afternoon and
evening. An upper level low over the 4 corners will provide lift and
diffluence to the western panhandles this afternoon and overnight.
These dynamics will hook up with the subtropical moisture to bring
showers and thunderstorms to the western panhandles this afternoon
into the overnight.

Persistence is the word for this forecast, so that means keep the
chances of rain going.  The south to southwest flow aloft will
continue to bring subtropical moisture across the panhandles and
this moisture will combine with instability and a few short wave
troughs to help produce showers and thunderstorms across parts of
the panhandles through at least Thursday.  But late in the week the
pattern may change to where the subtropical moisture is no longer
over the panhandles, but there still may be slight chance of rain
even beyond Thursday as the shear increases and combines with the
instability to produce showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures may be close to a little below climatology over the
next couple of days given the extra cloud cover. Temperatures should
warm above climo by end of the week as shower and thunderstorm
activity becomes more isolated.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

7/14



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