Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 160846
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
346 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE REMAIN FOCUSED UPON THE POTENTIAL
FOR WEATHER IMPACTS EMANATING FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES YESTERDAY HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CORE OF A PARENT
1020 MB SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TODAY...WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES BY AFTERNOON AND
MODERATION OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.

BY FAR THE MOST OBVIOUS WEATHER FEATURE APPARENT IN CURRENT VAPOR
IMAGERY IS THE IMMENSE UPPER AIR PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE. SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT HAS ALREADY EDGED NORTHEASTWARD OVER WEST
TEXAS...AND WILL REMAIN OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN THE DAYS AHEAD...CONTRIBUTING TO A DAILY MENTION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RECENT NWP HAS DONE
LITTLE TO INCREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE HANDLING OF ODILE/S
REMNANTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE
DEPICTED A GENERAL SHEARING OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE/FORCING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A FEW HAVE TRANSLATED THE REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MORE DIRECT IMPACT FROM ODILE AND
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS PLAINS CENTERED ON THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD MATERIALIZE. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE
40 PERCENT GRIDDED POPS OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

A COHERENT SIGNAL REMAINS FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR IF ANY MOISTURE RECEIVED FROM ODILE WOULD STILL BE LINGERING.
IT IS POSSIBLE HIGHER RAIN/STORM CHANCES MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH LATER UPDATES.

LINDLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                81  63  85  62  84 /  20  10  20  10  20
BEAVER OK                  83  66  90  65  90 /  10  10   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              83  60  86  60  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
BORGER TX                  84  66  88  64  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
BOYS RANCH TX              81  63  86  62  84 /  20  10  20  10  20
CANYON TX                  78  62  84  62  83 /  20  20  20  20  30
CLARENDON TX               80  66  85  64  85 /  20  10  20  10  20
DALHART TX                 82  60  86  60  83 /  20  10  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  85  63  89  63  89 /  10  10  10   5  10
HEREFORD TX                78  62  83  60  81 /  20  20  30  20  30
LIPSCOMB TX                83  66  88  65  89 /  10  10  10   5  10
PAMPA TX                   82  65  85  63  86 /  20  10  10  10  20
SHAMROCK TX                82  66  87  65  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
WELLINGTON TX              81  67  87  65  88 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10




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