Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 030442 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS.  STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO
VEER TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE.  REMNANT STRONG WINDS FROM
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MIX DOWNWARD AFTER SUNRISE...CAUSING SURFACE WINDS
TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.  LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HIGH-BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS WHERE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE POSITIONED AS
SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES
NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
EARLIER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS
AND THEN ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE RAPIDLY COMING TO AN END.  HAVE
UPDATED GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS TO REMOVE SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAD BEEN INSERTED EARLIER.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME JUST SOUTH OF KAMA
ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS AND CONVERGENCE ZONE.  WILL INCLUDE VCTS AND
TEMPO TSRA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KAMA.  COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KT WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO SOUTH AND
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY.  SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE AROUND 14Z OR 15Z WEDNESDAY.  CLEAR SKY EXPECTED MOST OF
THE DAY...WITH HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND KDHT AROUND 21Z
WEDNESDAY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

NO OVERWHELMING CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES TO ABOUND LATER IN THE PERIOD.  ONE OF THE MAIN SOURCES OF
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE THE TROPICS AS TS DOLLY IN THE WRN GULF
AND TS NORBERT IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL CERTAINLY CONTRIBUTE MOISTURE
TO THE PATTERN EVENTUALLY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE OVERALL
UPR AIR PATTERN EVOLUTION IN WAYS THAT WILL NOT BE WELL MODELED.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THE LIGHT
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WED AND THU WILL BE MUCH BREEZIER DAYS AS SSW
WINDS PICK UP.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE WRN OK PANHANDLE THIS PERIOD AS MODELS
HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT SLIPPING IN AND ERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHRTWV.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
TRIED VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN A TIME PERIOD OR LOCATION WHERE PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST BUT WEAK FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE MEANS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. DO THINK
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER IN THIS
PERIOD. MODELS SEEM TO BE CONGEALING A BIT BETTER ON TEMPERATURES
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/13




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