Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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917
FXUS64 KAMA 290731
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
231 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level low over Southeast New Mexico/West Texas to the
southwest of Lubbock is expected to move northeast across the
southeast Texas Panhandle this afternoon and into south central
Kansas tonight. This track of the upper low should put the northwest
half of the CWA in a favorable position for additional
precipitation. The southeast half of the the Texas Panhandle should
also see additional precipitation throughout the day but it may be
more scattered in this area.  Still can not rule out some
thunderstorms mainly across the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and much
of the northeast and southern Texas Panhandle as the cold core of
the upper low moves across. Have also continued the idea of snow
across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwest Texas
Panhandle for this morning. Latest forecast soundings show that in
this area only the lowest few hundred feet remain above freezing
this morning with plenty of moisture in the subfreezing layer above
that. So do not think that all of the snowflakes will melt before
reaching the surface. We may see an inch of snow or so, mainly to
the west of Boise City, OK to Dalhart, TX line.  Will hold off on a
winter weather advisory for now as ground temperatures are warm and
most of the accumulations should remain on grassy surfaces and not
cause a large impact.

Upper level low pulls away from the panhandles tonight, so a few
showers may linger in the northeast CWA after midnight before
ending.

The next upper level low takes a similar track to this last system
for Friday night into Saturday. It moves to near the 4-corners and
then it dives southeast across New Mexico Saturday morning. This is
where the models diverge. A couple of models want to take the upper
low south of the panhandles Sunday while another model wants to
track the upper low across the panhandles on Sunday. For now have
gone with a compromise and have rain chances starting Friday night
and lingering into Monday as the low slowly tracks across the region.

Tuesday should be dry as the low moves away from the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                46  36  67  40  74 /  70  10   5   0   0
Beaver OK                  47  37  65  37  65 /  90  50  10   0   5
Boise City OK              44  33  66  36  68 /  90  20   0   0  10
Borger TX                  48  39  69  42  76 /  80  20   5   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              49  35  70  40  76 /  90  10   5   0   5
Canyon TX                  49  36  70  39  76 /  70  10   5   0   5
Clarendon TX               50  40  70  41  76 /  60  10   5   0   0
Dalhart TX                 46  33  67  37  73 /  90  10   0   0   5
Guymon OK                  44  35  66  38  66 /  90  50   5   0   5
Hereford TX                49  35  70  39  76 /  70  10   5   0   5
Lipscomb TX                50  39  67  38  72 /  90  30  10   0   5
Pampa TX                   46  37  67  40  73 /  60  20   5   0   5
Shamrock TX                51  41  69  41  75 /  60  20   5   0   0
Wellington TX              54  42  71  42  78 /  60  20   5   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

3/15



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