Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
000
FXUS64 KAMA 162011
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
311 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Cooler than average temperatures are forecast for the rest of this
weekend. Rain showers will gradually diminish this afternoon but
the cooler temperatures will remain across the area. Another day
of highs in the 50s and potentially 60s is forecast for tomorrow
but with less chances for rain showers.
Latest radar imagery shows scattered to numerous rain showers
across much of the area with the southwest being the exception as
the showers have ended for this area. Rain shower activity has
been more widespread and heavier than previously forecast for
today, which is a pleasant surprise. Rain showers should gradually
end from southwest to northeast over the next few hours. Cloud
cover will remain across the area today which should keep highs to
mainly the mid 50s to upper 40s.
The H500 low that has been well talked about over the last few
days will remain over the Desert Southwest, in particular Arizona,
on Sunday. This is when the center of low pressure is forecast to
be closest to the CWA before beginning to trek back to the west
late on Sunday. With the low moving closer to the Southern High
Plains, lift for precipitation should remain over portions of the
High Plains on Sunday. Unfortunately for the Panhandles, H700
theta-e is not impressive for Sunday as shown by the latest model
guidance. The lack of better mid level moisture combined with
drying low levels behind a weak front tonight should keep most of
the area dry tomorrow. The far west and southwest zones have the
better chances at seeing very light rain showers, but the
potential is much lower than it has been the past two days. Some
locations may struggle to break out of the mid level clouds
tomorrow, mainly for the southwest, which would keep this area
cooler than other areas. Highs tomorrow will remain below average
in the lower 50s to lower 60s. For Sunday night, skies should
clear out and winds are forecast to decrease which should lead to
good radiational cooling and low temperatures dropping down to
near or below freezing for most of the Panhandles.
Muscha
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
The aforementioned upper level low pressure system is expected to
continue meandering around the southwestern states Monday and
Tuesday, then it finally translates eastward across the southern
high plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. The 12Z deterministic
medium range models and associated ensemble members are in reasonably
good agreement today with respect to the track and timing of this
storm system. In addition, the latest NBM pops and temperatures
reflect the above reasoning and were incorporated into the grids.
This suggests dry weather areawide for Monday and Tuesday. As the
upper level low pressure system moves across the region Wednesday
afternoon and night in a somewhat weakened state, expect the threat
for showers to return during that time. Models suggest there may
be just enough instability to warrant the possibility of some
thunderstorm potential, mainly across central and eastern sections
of the area later Wednesday afternoon and night, and this has
been included in the weather grids during that time frame. Dry
weather returns for Thursday and Friday.
02
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
VFR to MVFR conditions will continue at the beginning of this TAF
cycle. Light rain showers are moving across the area impacting all
sites with some visibility issues underneath the heavier showers.
Showers should move out of the region before or around 22z. Low
clouds remain across the area bringing MVFR ceilings to KDHT and
KAMA. MVFR ceilings may continue through 00z for both of theses
sites. Thereafter, all sites should return to VFR but low to mid
level clouds will remain in place across the area. Light winds are
forecast during this TAF issuance.
Muscha
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 40 56 32 60 / 10 10 10 0
Beaver OK 38 61 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 34 56 28 60 / 10 10 0 0
Borger TX 43 60 33 64 / 10 10 10 0
Boys Ranch TX 40 58 31 63 / 10 20 10 0
Canyon TX 39 54 32 61 / 10 20 20 0
Clarendon TX 42 57 34 60 / 10 10 20 0
Dalhart TX 36 57 27 60 / 10 20 10 0
Guymon OK 38 60 27 61 / 10 0 0 0
Hereford TX 38 53 32 62 / 10 20 20 0
Lipscomb TX 39 61 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
Pampa TX 40 59 31 61 / 10 10 10 0
Shamrock TX 42 61 33 60 / 10 10 10 0
Wellington TX 43 60 34 59 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...05