Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 082358
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
558 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.AVIATION...00z TAFS...

MVFR/VFR categories expected over the next 12-18 hours as low level
moisture will still linger and expect low CIGs to persist for the
overnight to morning hours. Cloud bases should range from 1000-2500
ft agl. Winds will generally be out of the northeast through about
06z and will shift out of the southwest 10-15kts for the rest of the
TAF period.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 151 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A short wave trough over northern and northeastern New Mexico will
impact the western Panhandles tonight. Some very light snow or light
freezing drizzle possible across the western portions of the
forecast area between 06Z and 18Z Friday...however confidence too
low to mention at this time. Otherwise...low clouds will affect much
of the western and central Panhandles tonight. Another cold night in
store for the forecast area then a gradual moderating trend Friday
into the weekend. No precipitation is expected Friday through
Saturday night.

Schneider

LONG TERM...
Slight height falls are expected across the Panhandles on Sunday as a
shortwave trough moves out of the northern Rockies into the High
Plains. A surface cold front is expected to slowly enter the
Panhandles by midday. By the evening hours the front should be
through the Oklahoma Panhandle but still moving through the northern
Texas Panhandle. This will give us a wide spread of high
temperatures with highs in the 40s across the NE with mid 60s across
the SW. The front is then expected to blow through the remainder of
the Texas Panhandle overnight and keep our lows at or below
freezing.

We will quickly moderate on Monday as winds turn back to the south
and 850mb temperatures rise back into the 13C to 15C range area
wide. This will result in highs in the 50s with the southwestern
Texas Panhandle having a chance to break 60.

Medium range models diverge for the Tuesday and Wednesday period of
the extended forecast. The GFS is the most aggressive with bringing
another arctic surge into the Panhandles Tuesday which would result
in a return to cold conditions similar to Today. The ECMWF/CMC are
less progressive with this cold air and keeps the front north of the
area until Wednesday morning. Have split the difference with the
outputs and I would expect adjustments are time goes forward. One
thing models do agree is that this cold surge will come through dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                18  46  30  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  15  42  25  58  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              15  48  27  61  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  20  47  31  64  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              18  51  30  66  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  17  47  29  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               18  42  27  60  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 15  51  27  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  16  47  26  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                18  48  30  64  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                15  40  26  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   16  43  28  61  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                18  39  26  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              19  40  27  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/18


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