Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 151156 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
656 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AT KAMA
AND KDHT...WHILE LIKELY TO MISS KGUY ALTOGETHER...OWING TO PERSISTENT
MID-LEVEL LAYER.  SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FORECASTS AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION AND TIMING OF SAME.  IFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOWER LEVELS
MOISTEN.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO START THE WORK WEEK WILL TAKE A BRIEF MIDWEEK
REPRIEVE...BEFORE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WERE LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.
FARTHER WEST...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ENOUGH THIS
MORNING TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NORTHEAST CO ACROSS
NORTHERN KS WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES TODAY...SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAY ALSO SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL LINGER.
COULD SEE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...BUT ANTICIPATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
SHOULD KEEP ANY STORMS SUB-SEVERE. THE INCOMING FRONT...ALONG WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE...MAKES FOR A
BIT OF A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY BUT WILL AIM FOR HIGHS
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST. LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT DISSOLVES TO OUR SOUTH. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO CLIP THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
TX PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY...AND DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION IN THIS AREA.

THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL GET SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES...LIKELY KEEPING ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST...A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EMERGE BY FRIDAY...DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND REMNANT ENERGY FROM NOW HURRICANE ODILE NORTHEAST INTO
THE AREA...RESULTING IN WHAT LOOK TO BE DECENT RAIN CHANCES AT THIS
RANGE. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH THE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR BUILDS
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND ON
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO WARM INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MAY START TO SEE SOME SUBTLE COOLING IN THE
WEST ON THURSDAY AS CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE...WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER/RAIN CHANCES AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT FRONT THEN
LIKELY HOLDING HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                80  59  81  62  86 /  20  30  20  20  10
BEAVER OK                  80  58  84  65  91 /  20  20  10   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              72  56  83  59  87 /  20  20  10  10  10
BORGER TX                  83  62  85  67  89 /  20  30  20  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              81  60  83  63  87 /  20  20  20  10  10
CANYON TX                  80  59  80  61  85 /  20  30  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               83  61  81  65  86 /  20  30  20  20  10
DALHART TX                 78  57  84  59  87 /  20  20  10  10  10
GUYMON OK                  77  58  85  62  90 /  20  20  10   5   5
HEREFORD TX                78  58  79  61  85 /  20  30  20  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                82  60  83  66  89 /  20  20  20  10   5
PAMPA TX                   81  60  82  64  86 /  20  30  20  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                83  61  83  65  87 /  20  30  20  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              84  62  84  66  88 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/08




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