Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 250322 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1022 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED AT ALL TERMINALS.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. WINDS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING...TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK
SLIGHTLY SINCE THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS AT KDHT AND KGUY ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST BEFORE REACHING A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. KAMA WILL ALSO SEE WINDS END IN A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MAY NOT EXPERIENCE
QUITE AN ARRAY OF WIND SHIFTS.

LORENZEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS.
CURRENT HIGH WIND SPEEDS AND STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO CALM
DOWN...HOWEVER KDHT COULD SEE THESE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AT KGUY AND KDHT
AROUND 5 AND 6Z...AND AROUND 9Z AT KAMA. WINDS AT KGUY AND KDHT WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT CLOCKWISE AROUND THE DIAL BEFORE ENDING UP OUT OF
THE SOUTH. AT KAMA WINDS SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

LORENZEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. DRY MID LEVEL AIR IS OVERSPREADING OUR REGION
WITH CLEAR SKIES OBSERVED AT ALL LOCATIONS IN THE PANHANDLES. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATER TONIGHT BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT. ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDENT MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FORCE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS AND A DEEPENING LEE LOW OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL RESPOND BY TURNING SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS
FOR HIGHS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ON TUESDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE BECOMES INCREASINGLY CLOSED
OFF AND MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS SLIGHTLY WITH TIMING AND GEOMETERY.
IN EITHER OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SCENARIOS THE RESULT
SHOULD BE SIMILAR. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX WELL EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
WITH DEEP MIXING ACROSS OUR AREA. A 500 MB SPEED MAX OF AROUND 75
KNOTS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE AREA. FORTUNATELY THE STRONGEST
MOMENTUM ALOFT PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LOOKS TO BE ABOVE THE MIXING
LAYER SO A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 WILL BE
COMMON. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER WINDS
THAT MAY NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY.

BRB

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH IS PROGGED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE SWRN STATES BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN HEAD EWD ACROSS AZ...NM...AND OUR FCST
AREA BY LATE FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. GENERALLY UTILIZED MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT..AND
SATURDAY WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER
MOVEMENT OFFERED BY LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATON WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALSO DEPICT A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD
THRU THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY...AND THIS WAS REFLECTED IN
THE WIND GRIDS. LINGERING SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW EXITS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE WEAKER STORM
SYSTEMS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH SLGT CHC POPS AREAWIDE
AS PER CONSENSUS MODEL POPS. THE COMBINATION OF PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...CLOUD COVER...AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF SPRING GREENUP...RECENT RAINS...ATTENDANT MOIST
FUELS...AND LOW ERC VALUES PRECLUDES CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY DESPITE FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER
.DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DRYING OCCURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS ALL
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                49  85  53  77  46 /   0   0   0   5   0
BEAVER OK                  50  83  54  81  46 /   0   0   5   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              43  79  46  71  41 /   0   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  53  86  56  78  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              49  85  52  76  45 /   0   0   0   5   0
CANYON TX                  47  86  52  77  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               53  86  55  82  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 45  82  47  71  42 /   0   0   0   5   5
GUYMON OK                  48  82  51  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                48  85  51  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                53  84  57  81  48 /   0   0   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   52  85  55  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                53  88  56  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              53  89  57  86  52 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/15



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