Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 192105
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
405 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
HELPED TO KEEP THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL DOWN AND MUCH FURTHER WEST OF
THE AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE MOSAIC RADAR WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NM. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CO CAN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHILE AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE CENTRAL PART OF TX CAN ALSO HELP TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
OVERALL FEEL THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL OVERCOME
THESE FEATURES BUT HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF A STRAY STORM IN THESE
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CA. SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL
SHIFT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND ALONG WITH
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NEARBY...A THREAT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXPAND A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

A SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BY THE WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY AROUND
MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT. HAVE
NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING A
POTENTIALLY WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT. IN ADDITION FUELS REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  93  68  93  66 /   5  10  10  20  20
BEAVER OK                  67  99  72 102  70 /   0   5  10  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              65  95  65  96  63 /   5  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  72  96  72  97  71 /   5   5  10  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              68  96  68  97  67 /   5  20  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  66  93  67  93  65 /   5  10  10  20  20
CLARENDON TX               68  94  69  95  68 /  10   5  10  10  10
DALHART TX                 64  95  65  95  64 /   5  20  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  66 100  68  97  67 /   5  10  20  20  20
HEREFORD TX                64  93  65  92  64 /   5  20  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                70  97  72  97  72 /   5   0   5  10  10
PAMPA TX                   67  93  70  94  68 /   5   5  10  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                69  95  70  96  70 /  10   0   5  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              69  97  70  97  70 /  10   5   5  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/05




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