Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 010155 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
855 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
STRIPPED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
PREVIOUS AFD REASONING. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHWARD. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST UP TO 25 KT
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHEST.
HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AFTER 12 AM, SO THESE BRIEF
NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL BE MOSTLY RESTRICTED TO LOCATIONS NORTH
OF A CLAYTON TO LIPSCOMB LINE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
JUST ONE LOOK AT THE FLAT TOP CUMULUS OUTSIDE OUR OFFICE BACKS UP
WHAT OUR 0000 UTC RAOB DATA SHOW WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CAP CENTERED
AROUND 540 MB. DUE TO THIS CAP, IT`S HIGHLY UNLIKELY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO FORM AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, ESPECIALLY
SINCE WE ARE BEYOND PEAK HEATING. ADDITIONALLY, SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION VALUES HAVE INCREASED BY
125 J/KG OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS, FURTHER LIMITING THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UPPER
SUPPORT TO THE NORTH, A FEW TOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP IN BEAVER COUNTY
ABOUT AN HOUR AGO, BUT EVEN THESE QUICKLY COLLAPSED. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT THESE ARE BEING
GENERATED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, ODDS ARE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

JACKSON

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS A FRONT APPROACHES
AND PASSES EACH TAF SITE FROM THE NORTH, WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
DIMINISH. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR VCTS AT KGUY 02Z-05Z, BUT CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A HOT AND DRY WORK WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE POTENTIALLY WET
PATTERN BY THE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS AFTERNOON...
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE BEING NOTED IN MANY AREAS WITH
AMARILLO ALREADY HITTING 103F. A DRYLINE FEATURE HAS SET UP FROM
ROUGHLY PERRYTON TO PAMPA. EAST OF THIS LINE...A FEW STORMS MAY FIRE
IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. GIVEN 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-35 KTS BULK
SHEAR...ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BECOMING
SEVERE WITH SOME HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND A DOWNBURST OR
2.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THESE DAYS WILL BE HOT AND MAINLY DRY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ANY WEAK WAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH. THE
TROPICS WILL NEED AN EYE KEPT ON THEM AS ANY SYSTEMS IN THE GULF OR
ERN PACIFIC COULD ADD EVEN MORE MOISTURE TO OUR PATTERN.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/JJ



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