Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 072126
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
426 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WARMING/DRYING TREND TAKES HOLD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...PESKY POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR JULY. LATE
AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE ONLY MANAGED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE UNDER THE THICKER/MORE PERSISTENT
STRATUS...WHILE MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 70S. THE
BULK OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRIMARY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST TX/SOUTHWEST OK. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW
OTHER LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES OUT
OF NM WITH AID FROM A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION. HOWEVER...WITH
RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND ONLY WEAK FORCING AT BEST...ANY
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPOTTY AND LIGHT. OF BIGGER CONCERN
TONIGHT MAY BE FOG. SOME LOW-LEVEL DRY ADVECTION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON ABOARD NORTHEAST WINDS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER
TO THE EAST AND TURN LIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TONIGHT...SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST...AN ALREADY MOIST
AIRMASS PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AND
MOIST GROUND IN SOME SPOTS FROM THE RECENT RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST UT/NORTHEAST AZ WILL
EJECT EAST TOMORROW...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST NM/SOUTHEAST CO AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL INDUCE
A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...LIKELY PULLING UPPER 50 TO LOWER
60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-1KM
MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR WITH DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-35 KTS. THUS COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES ARE IN THE NORTH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY WILL PULL THE MONSOON PLUME ACROSS THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE
PANHANDLES. THIS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR...INSTABILITY WILL
BE DECENT BUT FLOW ALOFT AND RESULTANT SHEAR ON THE WEAKER
SIDE...FAVORING MORE PULSE TYPE ACTIVITY WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
FOLLOWING THE COOL DAY TODAY...TEMPS WILL STEADILY WARM THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                59  81  65  85  65 /  20  20  40  30  30
BEAVER OK                  58  83  66  88  67 /  10  20  60  40  40
BOISE CITY OK              57  82  61  87  63 /  20  50  60  40  40
BORGER TX                  59  84  67  88  68 /  10  20  40  30  30
BOYS RANCH TX              58  85  65  88  66 /  20  20  50  30  40
CANYON TX                  59  83  64  86  65 /  20  20  40  30  30
CLARENDON TX               60  82  66  86  67 /  20  10  30  20  20
DALHART TX                 58  84  63  89  64 /  20  30  60  40  40
GUYMON OK                  57  83  65  88  66 /  10  30  60  40  40
HEREFORD TX                59  85  64  86  65 /  20  20  40  30  40
LIPSCOMB TX                59  82  67  88  69 /  20  10  50  30  20
PAMPA TX                   57  80  65  86  66 /  20  20  40  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                61  82  67  87  68 /  30  10  30  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              63  82  68  89  69 /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08




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