Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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290
FXUS64 KAMA 080009
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
609 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...
MVFR/IFR Conditions are expected over the next 6 to 12 hours, with
low CIGs being the main reason. Low level moisture combined with
upslope northeast winds tonight will result in some cloud decks
around 1000ft AGL, in addition moisture layer may be thick enough for
flurries to form. With this moisture freezing drizzle is possible,
but doubtful, since the low level temps should be cold enough for
dendrite growth. Therefore, if any light precipitation occurs between
03z-15z it should flurries. CIGs should improve to VFR by 12-15z if
not sooner, but there may be some low scattered clouds that linger
thorugh the TAF period.  Winds will be out of the north northeast
5-15kts.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 334 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery shows continued broad cyclonic flow
across the CONUS. Main trough axis is shifting eastward into the
Plains. At the surface...leading edge of strong cold front moved
through KAMA around 18z with strongest winds noted across the
western half of the CWA. Temperatures have struggled to even
approach guidance with persistent low and mid clouds today except
in the west where clouds cleared out earlier. As of 20z
temperatures were in the mid 20s across the northern zones with
mid 30s across the far southern zones.

For Tonight into Thursday...Strong cold air advection along with
some weak upslope flow will help squeeze out a few flurries this
evening and overnight across most of the Panhandles. While worst
case scenario might lend to a few areas getting a dusting of snow
accumulation, most areas will see no accumulation at all. Model
sounding still show around a 100mb layer between 825mb and 775mb
becoming saturated with dry air aloft. Can`t rule out some light
freezing drizzle before the profile cools to around minus ten
degrees later tonight converting any precip to flurries. Precip
chances will end from north to south with all areas precip free
around sunrise. Temperatures will be very cold with lows mostly in
the 10s and teens. Winds should reduce enough by early morning to
keep wind chills above advisory criteria.

Friday...Upper level trough shifts east with more zonal flow
aloft ahead of the next wave. While Friday morning may not be as
cold as Thursday with lows in the mid to high teens...increased
southwest winds of 10 to 20 knots will make it feel very cold as
wind chill values drop to near 0 for many areas. High will be much
warmer with 40s and 50s across the Panhandles with help from
downsloping winds gusting to 30 knots during the afternoon.

Extended...Fairly progressive pattern aloft expected with the
Panhandles expected to stay south of the better precip chances.
Temperatures will warm up well above average on Saturday before a
shortwave and weak cold front bring temperatures back down to
around normal Sunday into early next week. Models have deepened
this wave some compared to previous runs and are trying to show
some light precip behind front Sunday night. The Panhandles are
progged to stay in a northwesterly flow pattern beyond Sunday with
occasional disturbances moving through the flow with the
Panhandles staying on dry side. The ECMWF shows another Arctic
front moving through the Panhandles towards the middle of the
week, but the GFS isn`t on board yet.

Ward

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                14  26  17  47  31 /  10   5   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  10  30  13  44  26 /  10   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK               6  27  16  48  29 /  10   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  16  29  20  48  32 /  10   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              12  28  18  52  31 /  10   5   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  14  28  18  48  31 /  10   5   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               16  30  19  44  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 11  27  18  52  29 /  10   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  10  27  17  48  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                16  28  16  49  31 /  10  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                14  31  14  41  27 /  10   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   13  26  15  45  29 /  10   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                17  33  17  41  27 /  10   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              20  34  19  42  28 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/18



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