000
FXUS64 KAMA 171710 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1210 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ALL HELP TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND INSERTED TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AT ALL TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY UNDER THE STORMS...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR
OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS. LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM AT JUST ABOUT ANY TAF SITE
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE CLOUDS MAY BE PATCHY...SO HAVE ONLY
INSERTED A SCATTERED 1000 FOOT GROUP FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER
10 KNOTS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ MAIN AVIATION CONCERN CENTERS ON TIMING OF CONVECTION
SLATED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND RESULTING CIGS/VISBYS.

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY...CAUSING LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE
MUCH ABOVE 12-14 KTS TODAY AND SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 10 KTS
THIS EVENING. WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. THUS
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LAST 12
HOURS OF THE VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT
STORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS IS MODERATE BETWEEN 00-12Z
TUESDAY...DID NOT WANT TO INSERT TSRA AS A PREVAILING WX TYPE FOR
THAT LONG. AMENDMENTS WILL MOST LIKELY NEEDED TO REFINE THE TIMING OF
TSRA. IN ADDITION TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR NOW ALTHOUGH
THE POSSIBILITY OF CIGS DETERIORATING TO IFR OR MVFR IS MODERATE.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
FAVORABLE WNW TO NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM
PREVIOUS TSTM COMPLEX...A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING SWD THRU THE
AREA...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...FAST MOVG
MINOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROFS GRAZING THE FCST AREA...AND
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THREAT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SLGT CHC TO HIGH CHC POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. USED AREAL QUALIFIER DESCRIPTIVE WORDING FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FCST PCKG. CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE PNHDLS. SVR THREAT AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL ARE BOTH PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND THEN
AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
BEGINNING WED AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLD TSTMS MAY OCCUR
AROUND THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WED THRU THE WEEKEND
TO SOME DEGREE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO WITH
RESPECT TO WHEN...WHERE...OR EVEN IF STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURG THIS
TIME PERIOD SO HAVE MAINTAINED INTEGRITY OF PREVIOUS PCKG BY
CONTINUING TO KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE AFTER TUE NIGHT AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ABV NORMAL VALUES BEGINNING WED AND LASTING
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THIS WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14