Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 182103
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
403 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WELL THE PANHANDLES HAVE BEEN ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN TODAY AS
FAR AS RAIN WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE...SLOWLY BUT SURELY...BUT
LIKELY ONLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLES.

QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TODAY
WHICH CAN EXPLAIN THE BULK OF THE RAIN REMAINING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR TONIGHT...THINK THIS DRY AIR WILL KEEP A LOT OF THE
AREA JUST THAT...DRY. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION PUSHING THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED DRY AIR SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD. THERE WILL BE A VERY VERY
VERY FINE LINE AS TO WHO GETS THE HEAVY RAINFALL. SO DECIDED TO GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE THE PAST TWO WEEKENDS HAVE
SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE THREAT FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS STILL THERE. REALLY THINK THE MAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY THE SE TEXAS PANHANDLE. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES COULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SO WITH THAT SAID...BEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. IN FACT...MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

KNS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  75  62  78  60 /  30  90  80  50  40
BEAVER OK                  64  84  67  79  61 /   5  20  60  50  30
BOISE CITY OK              60  79  62  79  58 /  10  50  50  20  20
BORGER TX                  65  79  67  78  63 /  20  50  70  50  40
BOYS RANCH TX              64  76  62  79  61 /  30  70  70  30  30
CANYON TX                  63  75  62  77  61 /  40  90  90  40  40
CLARENDON TX               65  79  66  77  62 /  30  80  90  60  50
DALHART TX                 61  76  61  79  59 /  20  60  50  30  20
GUYMON OK                  63  81  64  79  59 /  10  30  60  30  20
HEREFORD TX                63  73  62  77  59 /  50  90  80  40  40
LIPSCOMB TX                65  82  67  78  63 /  10  30  70  60  40
PAMPA TX                   64  78  65  78  60 /  20  50  80  50  40
SHAMROCK TX                66  81  68  77  63 /  20  50  80  60  50
WELLINGTON TX              68  81  69  77  65 /  30  60  80  60  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$



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