Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 220518 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1218 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

A cold front will move through the DHT and GUY TAF sites around
sunrise and then it should move through the AMA TAF site around
mid day. Low clouds in the MVFR range are expected to develop
behind the front at DHT and GUY. Not sure if they will develop at
AMA since the front will be moving through during the heating of
the day. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop along and
ahead of the front this morning. But at this time, they look
fairly isolated, so will not mention them in the forecast. If the
front does not move through AMA until later in the afternoon on
Tuesday, then more showers and thunderstorms may form near the AMA
TAF site, but confidence on the position of the front is not high
at this time, so will leave mention of convection out of the AMA
TAF for this time frame as well. The MVFR cigs should dissipate
by late in the afternoon at DHT and GUY. Otherwise, VFR conditions
should prevail outside of thunderstorms.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 904 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/

UPDATE...Shower and thunderstorm activity is ongoing across the
extreme southeast Texas Panhandle this evening. Meanwhile, ongoing
activity across southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico,
coupled with an approaching cold front, may cause activity to
redevelop early Tuesday morning. As a result, have updated grids
to account for present trends through sunrise Tuesday. Otherwise,
the rest of the forecast remains on track.


AVIATION...Previous Discussion...
For the 00Z TAFs, there will be a renewed threat of showers and
tstms during this TAF cycle as a cold front moves south across the
OK and TX Panhandles Tuesday morning. Timing and location of tstm
development remains highly problematic at this time. Therefore,
due to low confidence, decided not to include tstms in any of the
TAFs for this fcst cycle. Will continue to closely monitor radar
trends this evening for possible amendments in the near term.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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