Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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610
FXUS64 KAMA 172053
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
253 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Southerly to southwesterly surface flow has returned to the
Panhandles region as temperatures this afternoon has rebounded
well into the 40s. Some cool areas with upper 30s to near 40
remain for parts of the eastern Panhandles, in particular for
areas off the Caprock taking a little longer to drain out the cold
air to the east. Going forward into the first half of the
weekend, temperatures across the region will warm up to well above
average.

Mid level flow will shift from northwesterly to more of a zonal
flow heading toward the end of the week in-conjunction with a 700
hPa ridge building northeast into the Panhandles and a surface
trough developing across eastern NM will generate southwesterly
winds. This should warm up the region to well above average by
Friday and Saturday with high temperatures expected to be well
into the 70s. Although winds will back off a bit by Saturday, warm
SW flow along with low RH values may set the stage for elevated
fire weather conditions Friday and Saturday.

As the region warms up Saturday with the deepening 500 hPa SW
flow, the main trough axis with developing upper level low
over SE Colorado by Sunday morning will bring our only chance of
precipitation to parts of the northern Panhandles for this
forecast period. Latest 17/12Z model and probabilistic data slows
down the system as it moves east across Kansas Sunday night bring
a slight chance of precipitation across the Oklahoma and far
norther Texas Panhandle during the day on Sunday with some wrap
around moisture. Unfortunately for the rest of the Texas
Panhandle, the system will be too far north to bring any
significant chances of precipitation to the area. A cold front on
the backside of the low pressure system will move south across the
region during the day on Sunday dropping high temps to range from
the 40s in the NW Panhandles to mid/upper 50s in the SE TX
Panhandle.

Following the cold front on Sunday, zonal mid level flow will keep
temperatures near average throughout the remainder of the
forecast period. Unfortunately, our chances of precipitation going
towards the end of the forecast period remain near zero percent.

Meccariello

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Friday across most
of the region along with Saturday across parts of the western
Panhandles. 20 ft. winds of 15 kts to near 20 kts in-conjunction
with min RH values between 10-19% will give elevated conditions
to most of the region. Elevated fire weather conditions will then
be confined to parts of the far western TX Panhandle for Saturday
with 20 ft. winds around 15 kts along with min RH values around
15%.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                17  57  26  72  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  17  58  26  69  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              20  59  26  71  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  21  58  32  72  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              17  58  22  73  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  15  58  23  71  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               15  55  26  72  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 16  58  22  70  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  17  60  25  71  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                14  58  24  71  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                17  56  26  67  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   20  57  28  70  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                15  52  23  66  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              15  53  24  68  32 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/29



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