Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 251724 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1124 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS FORESEEN.  SURFACE
WINDS ARE NOW BEING FORECAST TO BE OF LESSER SPEEDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...DUE TO DETERIORATION OF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY
UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA.  RUC 850 MB WIND
ANALYSIS ALSO DEPICTING A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS.  THUS...GUSTS IN
THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WILL BE FORECAST FOR ONLY KGUY AND KAMA...WITH
CESSATION OF SAME BEGINNING AROUND 23Z TODAY.  LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIHGT WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL GET GUSTY FROM THE NW TODAY
AND THEN DIE BACK DOWN AROUND SUNSET.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES LAST
NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TODAY. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN MISSOURI WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA SO THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A STRETCH OF DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY DUE TO THE DIMINISHING
SNOW COVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HOWEVER A
LOW-LEVEL JET OVER CENTRAL KANSAS/OKLAHOMA WILL LEAD TO BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THAT CAN MAKE IT FEEL A BIT CHILLIER. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE...CLOSER TO THIS JET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND
SUNSET WHILE BACKING A BIT TO THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
MILDER...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S IN
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN LOW 70S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL START TO FLATTEN TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING...COOLING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXITS IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH EVENTUAL PRECIP TYPE.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE A LOT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ALONG WITH AN INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE GFS ALSO TRACKS THIS UPPER LOW A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
EAST THAN THE ECMWF. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS ITS ORIGINS IN THE
PACIFIC AND WITH THE COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INITIALLY...PRECIP
TYPE WILL START OUT AS RAIN FRIDAY. CAN SEE A RAIN SNOW MIX FRIDAY
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL OFF TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. THE GFS
ALSO SUGGESTS MORE IN THE WAY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AS
IT BRINGS THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE COLD AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF.

PRECIP SHOULD END SUNDAY HOWEVER THIS UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS IS
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT BEARS WATCHING AS THIS
CAN BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THEN.

CLK


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/20




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