Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 240757
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
257 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED. NO SIGNIFICANT/IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.

THERE ARE A FEW TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT ON THE
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THESE WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. ONE IS TIMING OF CIRRUS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SUBTLE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALBEIT VERY LITTLE. SUNDAY WILL BE THE THIRD DAY OF
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON UPPER TROUGH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT MOISTENING
OF MID LEVELS CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS IT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
OVERLY HIGH IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION GIVEN QUITE DRY LOW LEVELS
AND AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF IT HAPPENS AT
ALL. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS FURTHER EAST
INTO OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MORE EXTENSIVE AND PROLONGED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

TWO OTHER ITEMS OF INTEREST IN THIS FORECAST ARE PRE AND POST
FRONTAL WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE GENERAL PATTERN WOULD NOT FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT.
WE WILL SEE HOW THE STRENGTH/GEOMETRY OF THE TROUGH EVOLVES BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN BUT AS IS DEPICTED AT THIS POINT POST FRONTAL SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES AND/OR WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER REALLY
WOULD NOT SUPPORT WINDS OVER ABOUT 20-25 MPH.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW
DISAGREEMENT TOWARD MID WEEK. THE GENERAL THEME TOWARD THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD IS FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO RETURN ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BRB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...AN OUTSIDE PSBLTY EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR
SUNRISE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE OR IF IT WILL
DEVELOP AT ALL. THEREFORE....HAVE OMITTED FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                86  54  86  54  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  88  53  89  52  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              87  50  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  88  56  90  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              87  52  89  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  87  52  87  51  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               89  57  89  55  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 85  48  86  47  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  89  50  89  51  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                86  51  86  51  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                86  54  89  55  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   85  56  87  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                88  56  90  54  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              89  57  92  56  90 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/17





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