Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 290342 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1042 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKY EXPECTED OVERNIHGT.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND TO
LIGHT SOUTHWEST BY DAYBREAK.  NO EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT
BEGINNING AROUND 16Z WEDNESDAY.  CLEAR SKY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY
EVENING.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME CIRRUS
HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT AMA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW. BY
AFTERNOON SPEEDS WILL EXCEED 10 KTS AND COULD APPROACH 15
KTS...ESPECIALLY AT DHT AND GUY WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONGER.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SAW MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER TODAY
THAN RECENTLY AS A COOL AIR MASS SETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED...LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY FALL INTO THE MID 30S...RAISING
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE FROST DEVELOPMENT BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO
STAY WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST. THUS HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO BUMP TEMPS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
/THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/ DESPITE A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN
ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SENDING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY AS THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS FRONT WILL SEND ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO THE AREA IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. BY THE
WEEKEND...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS TO REBOUND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
PAINT LIGHT QPF MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...EAST OF A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. HOWEVER THE
CURRENT 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH AND NOW DOES
NOT CLOSE OFF A SECONDARY UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
STAY EAST OF THE AMA CWA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST GIVEN
THESE MODEL DISCREPANCIES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/17





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