Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 171145 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
645 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
PRECIP HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AT KDHT/KGUY WHERE MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY DISPLAYED PRECIP BY NOW. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN
OVER SOUTHERN KS WITH SOME STRONGER ECHOES EXTENDING NEAR KGUY BUT
CURRENT OBS INDICATE RAIN IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. BUT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NM...STILL POSSIBLE FOR RAIN TO MOVE
NEAR THE KGUY TERMINAL...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. OF MORE CONCERN ARE LOW CLOUDS SPREADING EAST
OUT OF NM. HAVE INSERTED MVFR CIGS AT KDHT/KGUY BY 13Z AND 14Z
RESPECTIVELY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY 16-18Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH
HAVE KEPT CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WILL
VEER TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA HAS
BEEN A DUD SO FAR. VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED IN THE TX
AND OK PNHDLS. HAVE DECIDED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE POP VALUES FOR THIS
MORNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO LACK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CONTINUED TO PLACE HIGHEST POPS ERN HALF OF OK PNHDL EXTENDING INTO
ERN TX PNHDL AS THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THAT AREA
THIS MORNING. LEFT IN LINGERING SLGT CHC POPS FOR ONLY FAR ERN TX
PNHDL THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS SEEN TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST
RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE SRN STREAM FLOW IS PROGGED TO AFFECT SRN HIGH
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS PARTICULAR
SYSTEM. THE ONCE CONCERN IS THAT MOST MODELS ARE NOT VERY
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT POPS THIS WEEKEND AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LESS
AND LESS COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED QPF AMOUNTS THE PAST FEW RUNS.
BECAUSE OF THAT...DID NOT INCREASE POPS FOR ANY PERIOD FRI NIGHT THRU
SUNDAY FOR THIS FCST PCKG. SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FAR WRN TX PNHDL LOOK PLAUSIBLE...FOLLOWED
BY SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT AREAWIDE WITH A TRENDS
TOWARDS DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.

THE AXIS OF THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE PASSING OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORESEEN
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME AS IT APPEARS
WE MAY GET DRY SLOTTED FROM THE NEXT VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE OMITTED POPS FOR TUE AND WED.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MONDAY. IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THEN ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES NEXT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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