Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 171755 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1155 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.AVIATION...18Z Tafs

KDHT could have a few gusts out of the NNE this afternoon,
otherwise winds will be predominately light and variable.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 653 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/

Fairly quiet and mild weather expected today and Saturday as
closed mid-level low over Permian Basin lifts northeast, allowing
light winds and a mostly clear sky to prevail while brief ridging
sets up tonight and Saturday.

Next shortwave trof crosses the Rockies on Sunday, generating a
low-level response of southerly winds, tapping Gulf moisture.

Dryline expected to sharpen during the day on Sunday, providing a
focus for thunderstorm development.  Have retained pops Sunday
and Sunday evening, with higher chances across eastern zones where
deeper and richer moisture will be positioned and will remain
until eradicated by passage of dryline Sunday afternoon and

Cold air aloft will strengthen mid-level lapse rates as moderately
strong dynamics arrive.  A few thunderstorms could become strong
to marginally severe across eastern sections Sunday afternoon and
evening with hail up to one inch, winds up to 60 MPH and brief
heavy rains.

Mild conditions resume Monday through Wednesday as mid-level ridge
prevails in wake of departing shortwave trof or closed low.  Next
system expected to cause dry and windy conditions on Thursday.


Although relative humidity values are expected to fall below 20
percent today across the western half of the Panhandles, no
elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected due to
light to moderate winds.  No elevated or critical fire weather
conditions are expected Saturday through Monday as relative
humidities remain above necessary thresholds.  Thunderstorms will
be possible Sunday and Sunday night.  Relative humidities fall
below 20 percent on Tuesday and Wednesday across the western half
of the Panhandles, but winds are expected to remain too light to
create elevated or critical fire weather conditions.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely to occur
on Thursday, primarily across the western three-fourths of the
Panhandles as dry southwest winds increase.  03


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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