Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 292331 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING QUICKLY WITH NO THREAT TO ANY OF
THE TERMINALS.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND FROM EAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  BY 18Z SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.  GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT
24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS. A FEW CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...HOWEVER FEEL THAT THESE
WILL NOT LAST PAST 00Z SUNDAY OR WILL MOVE WEST AND SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS
OUT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM MORE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FORCED EASTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
TUESDAY.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLES BY THE END OF THE WEEK USHERING IN A COLD FRONT IN TIME
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                62  92  64  95  66 /   5   5   0   5   5
BEAVER OK                  61  94  64  98  70 /   5   5   0   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              60  93  63  95  63 /   5   0   5  20  20
BORGER TX                  64  94  68  97  70 /   5   5   0   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              61  94  65  96  66 /   5   5   0   5  10
CANYON TX                  62  92  63  96  64 /   5   5   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               64  92  64  96  67 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 60  93  63  95  66 /   5   0   5  10  20
GUYMON OK                  61  94  64  97  67 /   5   5   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                62  91  65  94  64 /  10   5   0   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                61  93  65  98  70 /   5   5   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   63  90  65  94  68 /   5   5   0   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                63  92  65  97  68 /   5   5   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              64  94  66  97  68 /   5   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06


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