Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 182338 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
638 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

For the 00Z TAFs, VFR conditions are anticipated at the terminal
sites through late Saturday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms may
develop over parts of the forecast area late Saturday afternoon.
However, confidence is low with respect to where or if this will
occur, which precludes mentioning in the TAFs.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 456 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

Isolated diurnally driven storms possible this afternoon across
the Panhandles. While instability is pretty good, about 3000 J/kg
of CAPE, the modified airmass from last nights storms could make
it difficult to reach the convective temperature to get storms to
develop. If storms are able to develop they will not have as good
upper level dynamics for organization as yesterday. With bulk
shear values around 10 to 20 kts any storms that develop will
likely be pulsing in nature and slow moving, which could lead to
localized heavy rain with possible flooding in poor drainage

As we move into the weekend the upper level ridge will shift
further east and will start to transition to a more southwest
flow, and could possibly bring some convection over us from the
mountains. By Sunday and Monday an upper level low off the
southern CA coast will help to spin up more moisture to the area.
The bulk of this moisture looks to be over AZ/NM, but there is
still the possibility for storms to impact the western and
central Panhandles.

Have increased POPS on Tuesday as moisture may make it further
east over the Panhandles. We will transition from a westerly to
northwesterly flow Tuesday into Wednesday as the high begins to
rebuild over the four corners area. Thursday onward, models
diverge in solutions at this point, with one indicating a
disturbance to move through, and others suggesting that high
pressure will attempt to move back over the Panhandles limiting
the chance for active weather, whereas a more pulse convective
scenario would be favorable.


VFR conditions expected through period. Winds will be southerly
at 10-15 knots this afternoon decreasing to 5-10 knots overnight.
Can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two mainly in the
western Texas Panhandle late this afternoon. Confidence not high
enough to include TS mention in TAFs at this time, but amendments
may be needed based on radar/obs/sat trends.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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