Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 232015
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
315 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday Night...
See previous discussion below.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...
The cold front looks to be fully through the area by Sunday afternoon
as it will be moving quickly. It will bring gusty winds with it as
well during the day. As the upper level trough moves off to the east,
some energy gets pinched off and will form a closed low in the
southwest US. Models start to disagree on Sunday in timing of this
happening and continue getting further apart in consensus through
the week. The low will retrograde as high pressure builds into Texas
from Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms might linger around the area
Monday and then as the high pressure builds in, Tuesday through
Friday are mostly dry. By Wednesday night, the closed low ejects out
over the Rockies and brings a small chance for some showers in the
southeast Panhandle. After that, ridging builds in further and keeps
the area dry.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                60  82  57  68  48 /  30  30  40  50  20
Beaver OK                  66  85  58  73  49 /  20  30  30  20  10
Boise City OK              52  80  50  69  42 /  30   5  10  10   5
Borger TX                  64  85  58  71  49 /  30  30  30  30  20
Boys Ranch TX              58  85  55  71  46 /  20  20  30  40  10
Canyon TX                  59  83  57  68  47 /  30  30  30  50  20
Clarendon TX               65  81  59  69  51 /  40  50  50  70  40
Dalhart TX                 54  83  49  70  44 /  30  10  20  20  10
Guymon OK                  59  85  53  72  46 /  30  10  20  10  10
Hereford TX                57  82  55  67  46 /  30  20  30  50  20
Lipscomb TX                68  83  59  71  49 /  30  50  50  30  20
Pampa TX                   62  82  56  69  49 /  30  40  40  40  20
Shamrock TX                67  83  61  71  51 /  30  60  50  70  40
Wellington TX              68  83  63  71  52 /  20  60  60  70  40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 224 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A high amplitude upper level low pressure feature in-conjunction
with a surface cold front will dictate our weather pattern as we go
through Sunday morning. The main surface cold front back to the west
of the Panhandles is working its way slowly to the east. As it does
so, mesoanalysis data does show CAPE near 1000 J/kg along with bulk
shear 30-40 kts out ahead of the front. However, with the loss of daytime
heating along the front with weak sfc-700 hPa baroclinicity,
convection could be limited as shown with the latest hi-res model
runs.

As we go into the day on Saturday, the main cold front will
continue to move slowly to the east. Some of the latest 23/12Z model
runs suggests that the cold front progression may become stationary
as we go later on in the afternoon. This will set up distinct
isodrosotherms with values in the 40s in the western Panhandles
behind the front and mid 60s ahead of the front in the eastern
Panhandles. The upper level dynamics set up shows a weak 250 hPa jet
core sets up SW to NE just northeast of the Panhandles with our
region in some favorable jet dynamics along with strong northerly 500
hPa winds upstream of the main trough axis to our west by Saturday
morning. These strong 500 hPa winds will help elongated a strip of
PVA upstream of the main trough axis to further amplify the positive
tilt of the main trough across New Mexico. 500 hPa temperatures
Saturday afternoon will also range from -8C to -11C. This upper level
combination along with the surface features associated with the front
will provide the best chances of thunderstorms along and out ahead of
the cold front across the eastern Panhandles. A few of these storms
could be strong if all the synoptic and dynamics set up come together
during the peak of daytime heating. The main cold front should slowly
continue to drift to the southeast as we go from Saturday night into
Sunday morning. More rain showers and some thunderstorms will
continue into Sunday morning along the front with the best chances in
the southern and southeastern TX Panhandle.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/16



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