Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

404
FXUS64 KAMA 221945
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
245 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Diurnal convection continues to be main weather feature across
portions of the region as the 598 decameter upper level high pressure
system continues to compress and shift to the southwest. In-
conjunction with surface observations showing SSE surface flow
across the TX/NM border, this has generated some convection over the
mountains of New Mexico a little bit further to the east compared to
yesterday at this time. The highest probability of showers and
thunderstorms will be across far western OK Panhandle and far
northwestern TX Panhandle from this afternoon to late tonight.
Precipitation chances will diminish as we go into early Saturday
morning. Similar weather pattern will continues as we go from
Saturday into Saturday night across the Panhandles with best chances
in the same locations as previously mentioned.

As we go from Sunday night into the middle of next week, latest
22/12Z model and probabilistic guidance are depicting a more zonal
flow across the central CONUS. Areas just north of the Panhandles will
be under an upper level westerly flow while across the Panhandles,
our 500-250 hPa flow will be easterlies. With jet streaks moving east
across the central plains and a stalled out surface front developing
across southern Kansas, some low pressure impulses may develop along
this surface baroclinic zone and enhance our chances of thunderstorms across
the Panhandles as they move southeast into our region. Chances of
showers and thunderstorms at this time look to be the greatest as we
go toward the middle of next week. Temperatures overall will cool
slightly as we go from the second half of the weekend into early next
week as a more ESE surface wind will be established as high temps
will be in the mid 90s. With that established SE wind flow, humidity
will also return to the region, especially across the eastern
Panhandles.

LFM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                72 100  73  97  71 /   0   0   5  10  20
Beaver OK                  73 101  74  96  73 /   5   5  10  20  30
Boise City OK              66 100  66  94  66 /  20  20  30  30  30
Borger TX                  76 103  76  99  75 /   5   0   5  10  20
Boys Ranch TX              74 102  73 100  72 /   5   5  10  20  20
Canyon TX                  70 100  72  98  70 /   0   0  10  10  20
Clarendon TX               71  99  72  97  72 /   0   0   5  10  20
Dalhart TX                 68 102  69  98  69 /   5  10  20  30  30
Guymon OK                  72 103  71  99  70 /   5  10  10  30  30
Hereford TX                71 100  71  98  70 /   0   0  10  10  20
Lipscomb TX                73 100  73  96  72 /   5   0   5  10  20
Pampa TX                   72 100  72  95  71 /   5   0   5  10  20
Shamrock TX                70 100  71  97  71 /   0   0   0   5  10
Wellington TX              71 102  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/29



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.