050
FXUS64 KAMA 250605
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
105 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

-Thunderstorms will be possible throughout the coming week.

-Repeat rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rain will result in
 flooding chances, especially for the western Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Rain showers and thunderstorms continue to be present on radar
across the Western Panhandle tonight. This activity is likely to
hold through the overnight with model agreement seeing the present
low pressure system to our west and strong high pressure to our
east. The placement of these two systems has allow for a monsoon
like presence to take hold over much of New Mexico and the western
portions of the southern plains. As it stand this set up has seen
high amount of moisture present across the Western Panhandles
with latest models and 00Z sounding suggesting PWAT values
reaching past the 1.5 inch mark. This moisture combined with some
slight instability and orographic lift from the mountains to our
west should keep chances of showers and thunderstorms going for at
least another day for the Panhandles. As we move into Thursday,
model agreement does see the present high pressure system build
back west, which could see chance become more concentrated to of
our west. However, latest from the CAMs suggest that this
transition may not be present till the overnight hours when most
model see a transition to a more zonal upper-level flow.
Regardless, potential is still present to see another couple of
tenths over the next two days with locally higher amounts possible
with any embedded thunderstorms. Meanwhile in terms of severe
potential, chances continue to trend on the low end with
relatively low CAPE values present along side little to now
effective bulk shear to keep storms organized.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

As we progress into the weekend, model agreement sees the strong
upper-level high pressure forced off the southeastern coast, which
in turn allows for the present trough to break down and finally
pass through. This transition of the upper-level pattern does look
to put the Panhandles under a more zonal upper-level flow for the
weekend. This more zonal pattern will help keep activity more
conditional as we see the higher moisture content start to shift
and concentrate to our east once again. Moving into next week, has
models seeing us under a very stagnate upper-level pattern with
our general steering flow becoming very weak. Unfortunately this
stagnate pattern does not necessarily mean we will dry out as
potential is present to see weak disturbance push in a create pop-
up thunderstorms each afternoon all the way into Wednesday. At
this time these chances range anywhere from 20 to 40% across the
entire Panhandles, with severe potential still possible despite
present patterns suggesting very weak wind shear expected over
next week. Regardless, the potential for thunderstorms and showers
will help keep temperatures down in this stagnate pattern with
latest calling for highs in the 80s to low 90s clear into
Wednesday. &&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. VCTS/VCSH are possible for KDHT/KGUY throughout the
daytime and evening hours. Otherwise, winds will be out of the
south and southwest at 10-20 kts, with higher gusts at times.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...29