000
FXUS64 KAMA 170906
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
406 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Conditions will be dry for the early part of today, with increased
thunderstorm coverage late this afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorms have the potential to be severe at steep 700-500 mb
lapse rates will overspread the Panhandles amidst strong heating.
CAPE values on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg combined with about
30kts of deep layer shear will support organized convection. Hail
and winds will be the primary threat. Hi-rez models suggest that
things may start off as discrete cells then become more of an MCS
where wind will become more of the threat. Additional things to
note for tonight, a shortwave trof embedded in the northwest flow
is expected to move through late in the evening allowing for
additional forcing to keep convective activity through the night.
A low level jet will set up with the lee side trof, increasing the
low level helicity values. This will not rule out the possibility
for a tornado threat. The threat will remain low, but still not to
be discounted.

Northwest flow will continue Friday into Saturday, and
thunderstorm chances will continue across the Panhandles. PWAT
values will be pushing the 1.50" range on Friday and thusly heavy
rain and possible flooding concerns could be possible with storms.
WPC has the Panhandles in a slight risk for excessive rainfall on
Friday. Saturday will be more isolated in nature as storms as high
pressure attempts to build over the area.

As we move into Sunday and the work week, southwest flow with
increased moisture is to be expected. This will bring back a
chance of thunderstorms each day, but with the increased moisture
will also bring the concerns for further heavy rain and flooding
potential.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...
VFR conditions expected for the majority of this TAF cycle.
Convection will be the primary aviation concern Thursday
afternoon. Forecast models show scattered convection developing
during the early afternoon hours over the higher terrain before
moving eastward into the terminals. Have inserted PROB30 groups to
each terminal to cover the onset of storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                89  66  90  66  91 /  20  40  20  20  10
Beaver OK                  93  67  95  67  96 /  20  50  30  20   5
Boise City OK              86  63  90  62  90 /  20  40  20  10  10
Borger TX                  91  69  93  69  94 /  20  50  20  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              92  65  93  65  93 /  20  40  20  20  10
Canyon TX                  88  65  90  66  91 /  20  30  20  20  10
Clarendon TX               90  67  91  68  93 /  20  40  20  30  10
Dalhart TX                 89  64  92  62  92 /  20  40  20  20  10
Guymon OK                  90  66  94  64  94 /  20  50  20  20  10
Hereford TX                89  66  91  66  91 /  20  30  20  20  10
Lipscomb TX                93  67  93  68  95 /  10  60  30  30   5
Pampa TX                   92  67  93  66  93 /  20  50  20  30  10
Shamrock TX                90  69  93  69  95 /  10  50  20  30  10
Wellington TX              91  70  94  70  96 /  10  40  20  30  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/14