Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 160442 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1042 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
FCST CYCLE. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SW AND S AROUND LATE
TUE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE TUE EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE FOR THE CNTRL AND ERN
OK PNHDL AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE ERN TX PNHDL. WIND SPEEDS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO BELOW CRITERIA. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND GRIDS WILL BE OUT
AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF
KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WINDS REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER 50+
KNOT 700 MB SPEED MAX. WITH MIXING THIS AFTERNOON GUSTS HAVE
REACHED 45 MPH AT A FEW LOCATIONS. AS MIXING SUBSIDES THIS EVENING
WINDS WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. A RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA
EARLY TOMORROW AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AS IT PASSES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEAK SHORT WAVE TRANSVERSES THE PANHANDLES MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TRENDING DRIER...BUT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THURSDAY KEEPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE AREA...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING IN MUCH DRIER WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO WHEN PREVIOUSLY THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO
FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME LOOKED TO BE THE MOST FAVORED FOR
PRECIP...NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK SO GREAT. NONETHELESS MODEL BLENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE COLUMN MAINLY STAYING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SO MAIN
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN RATHER THAN A RAIN SNOW MIX. TEMPS MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER ANY ACCUMULATIONS /IF ANY/ WILL BE LIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HEAD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA BUT A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF FROZEN PRECIP. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AS THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HENCE KEEPS THE AMA CWA DRY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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