000
FXUS64 KAMA 200533
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1233 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period. Winds
will be out of the north throughout the day between 10-15 kts
before switching to more easterly between 5-10 kts after 00Z
Sunday through to the end of the TAF period. Weather conditions
should also remain tranquil throughout the TAF period.

Meccariello

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Current water vapor imagery reveals broad cyclonic flow with the
main upper low centered over central CO. This low is beginning to
lift northeastward towards the central Plains. At the surface,
post-frontal north winds are noted across the Panhandles with
temperatures mostly in the 60s. A few echoes are showing up on
local radars along with some sparse lightning detected in eastern
NM. These showers and storms are struggling to maintain as
moisture and instability are very limited as they move off the
higher elevations. The western Panhandles stand the best chance of
seeing any precipitation with these if they can hold together.

This evening and overnight the main 500mb axis of the upper low is
progged to cross the area with a reinforcing shot of northerly
winds mainly between 03z and 09z. However, as the upper low pushes
further northeast the pressure gradient will relax and winds will
decrease especially by Saturday afternoon. Much drier air will
also filter in resulting in few clouds Saturday across the
Panhandles. Overall, Saturday will be quite pleasant with highs
in the 60s and 70s. Flow aloft will become more zonal going into
Sunday.

On Sunday, a subtle wave will cross the area within the westerly
flow aloft which should help initiate a few storms in northeastern
NM, southeastern CO, and these should move into our northwestern
zones during the afternoon and evening. Also, the combination of
anticyclonic flow east of the Panhandles and a developing lee
trough will help pull positive theta-E air into the western zones
which may further help with thunderstorm development. Forecast
model profiles show high based CAPE around 1000 J/kg, along with
some speed shear around 30 knots. Moreover, A few strong storms
can`t be ruled out for Sunday afternoon and evening mainly for the
northern zones as the upper perturbation crosses that area.

Ward

LONG TERM...
As upper level zonal flow changes to northwest flow, a cold front
pushes its way through the Panhandles. Monday will look to be the
best chance for widespread precip with the frontal passage. Some
lingering shower possibilities will remain on Tuesday for the
western parts of the area with mountain induced convection coming
into our area. The remainder of the work week looks to dry out and
begin to heat up, especially Thursday and Friday with highs in the
90s. Some long range models are even hinting at seeing our first 100
degrees in the far southeast by week`s end.

Beat

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/15