Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 211119
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
619 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016
12Z TAF Cycle
After some morning convection which should mainly affect the Guymon
TAF site between 12Z and 15Z or so today...VFR conditions will
prevail at all three TAF sites. Southeast to south winds 5 to 10
knots or less through about 14Z to 16Z today will become south 10 to
20 knots after 14Z to 16Z today through 12Z Monday.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 457 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/
A weak s/wv with interacting with an area of elevated moisture convergence
(H7 level) to produce a narrow band of elevated thunderstorms across
the OK panhandle. These storms may drift a bit further east through
the morning and have included low pops in the north to account for
this. There is also a low potential for mountain convection to drift
into wrn zones this evening, but feel NAM may be a bit agressive with
this as it is not supported by CAMs attm.
Otherwise, we continue to see a split flow pattern with a weak srn
stream jet across SRN CA, AZ, NM and NRN TX with a broad trough in
the flow across the Desert SW. Weak disturbances will eject across
the Panhandles periodically over the next few days before a more
substantial trough develops and approaches from the west late
Tuesday. Models have been relatively consistent showing the trough
slowing across NM placing the area in a favorable active region for
several days. Panhandles may even be positioned nicely within a jet
entrance region by late Wednesday as a cold front assoc with a NRN
stream trough dipping into the plains arrives from the north.
At the SFC, high pressure will shift east toward the MS River valley
while low pressure develops to the north through Monday. This will
allow increasing SRLY flow tap the moisture pooled along the stalled
front in south Texas (causing flooding this morning). This rapidly
transports low level moisture north toward the region per H85-H7
theta-e advection noted in NAM, GFS and ECMWF. This combined with the
aforementioned s/wvs in wsw flow aloft will provide isold to sct TSRA
across the region Monday and Tuesday favoring SE zones initially.
POPs increase WED-THU as the main trough and cold front come into
play. GFS and ECMWF show potential for storm chcs continuing through
Sat as the front backs up quickly due to persistent troughing to the
west, but confidence is low after Wednesday night. Elevated low level
wind fields with good veering with height may provide a little more
wind shear to work with than what we have seen of late and this will
have to be monitored through the week in assessing svr potential.
As you would expect, temps will warm to above normal values early in
the week as srly flow increases, but will drop back below normal
behind the front later in the period.