000
FXUS64 KAMA 202336
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE TERMINALS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY DIRECT IMPACTS AT A
TERMINAL IS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS DROPPING OFF
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING BUT RESUMING AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS A GENERALLY HOT AND
DRY WEEK IS IN STORE THANKS IN LARGE PART TO THE ARRIVAL OF MID
SUMMER UPR LEVEL RIDGING. THIS UPR RIDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO H85
TEMPS PUSHING WELL ABOVE 30C BY FRI/SAT. MIX DOWN TECHNIQUES YIELD
AROUND 100-104 FRI AND SAT IN MOST AREAS AND SOME DOWNRIGHT
SWELTERING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS GREEN VEGETATION
EVAPOTRANSPIRATES AND SUPPLIES A BIT OF EXTRA MOISTURE, NOT ALLOWING
DEWPTS TO FALL AS MUCH AS WE WOULD SEE IN BROWN CONDITIONS. THOUGH
FRI AND SAT MAY BE THE HOTTEST DAYS, IT WILL BE HOT ALL WEEK AROUND
HERE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100.

THERE ARE A FEW SMALL RAIN CHANCES, MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES. THE "BEST" (NOTICE THE QUOTES) CHANCES
WILL BE THIS EVENING, MON EVENING, AND FRI NIGHT IN THESE AREAS.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY AS SFC T/TD SPREADS PUSH
35-45F THIS WEEK.

THIS UPR RIDGE MAY NOT HANG AROUND ALL THAT LONG AS THERE ARE STRONG
INDICATIONS AN IMPRESSIVE UPR LEVEL WAVE WILL SQUASH THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND THEN PUNT IT BACK WEST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THAT
MEANS NW FLOW/COLD FRONTS ARE COMING BACK AND MAYBE EVEN SOME MORE
RAIN CHANCES.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/11