000
FXUS64 KAMA 090520 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1220 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
ISOLD TSTMS PSBL THRU 12Z THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...
AND THEN AGAIN LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECTED
SPARSE COVERAGE OF TSTMS PRECLUDES A MENTION IN THIS TAF FCST CYCLE
AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/

UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HAVE DECIDED TO REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES
TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ALL ZONES REST OF TONIGHT. UPDATED PRODUCTS
AND GRIDS WILL BE OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAVING A TOUGH TIME MATERIALIZING
AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION REMAINING JUST STRONG ENUF TO PREVENT FORMATION DESPITE
PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MOISTURE...AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY.
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THAT WEATHER ELEMENT OUT OF THIS FCST CYCLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS EVENING. ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPARSE AND WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN
THE TERMINAL FCSTS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THROUGH-TONIGHT: A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA,
BUT HAS STALLED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR HEREFORD TO
WELLINGTON. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH UPPER 90S OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH PRODUCED A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED STORM EARLIER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES, BUT THIS BAND
HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER, LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS ALLOWED TOWERING CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE WIND PROFILER AT PLATTEVILLE, CO AND VWP FROM KDDC
SUGGESTS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN. WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN AND MIXED LAYER CAPE
VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG, WE THINK AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS
WITH FAIRLY WEAK BUOYANCY, BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 25 KT AND
SHORT, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WILL MAINLY SUPPORT PULSE CONVECTION WITH
A COUPLE OF MULTICELL STRUCTURES ALSO POSSIBLE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL. THE MAJORITY OF THE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE BY 11 PM, BUT THAT PROBABLY WON`T BE
THE END OF THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE BACK NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT, BUT THE 850 MB FRONT WILL MAKE A
LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESS. STRONGER CONFLUENCE ALONG THIS 850 MB
FRONT AND AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROBABLY ALLOW SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 2 AM. THE LOCATIONS MOST FAVORED FOR THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF AN ELKHART TO SHAMROCK LINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SPOT OR TWO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S IF SKIES CAN CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES IN THE MORNING, BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 11 AM. AFTERWARD, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
ARE BREACHED DUE TO STRONG HEATING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS DEVELOP/MOVE INTO
AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF A BOISE CITY TO CANADIAN LINE WHERE A MORE
UNSTABLE FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE/MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA BY 2 AM.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 90S AREAWIDE.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: GOING TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY WITH A
REASONABLY DEEP (FOR JULY STANDARDS) SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THIS SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. THE MEAN FLOW WILL BE
FAVORABLE TO STEER THIS CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS, BUT
THE VERY WEAK FLOW SUGGESTS IT MAY ACTUALLY DISSIPATE BEFORE MAKING
IT INTO OUR AREA. THEREFORE, WE`VE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW. ONE THING TO WATCH WILL BE ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY INITIATE STORMS IN OUR AREA (WEST OF A BOISE CITY TO
TEXLINE LINE), BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW. HIGHS SHOULD
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100.

FRIDAY-TUESDAY: MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH SMALL SCALE
DIFFERENCES TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION, BUT THIS WILL GRADUALLY BE SHIFTED WESTWARD BY AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN, THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST. THE GFS
SHOWS A STRONGER RIDGE CENTERED MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN THE ECMWF.
OVERALL, THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES WHERE A COLD FRONT MAY BLEED
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES, A STRONG JULY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY.

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7
DAYS AS EITHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
AND/OR 20-FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH. FURTHERMORE, RECENT GREEN
UP WILL ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY TEMPER ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$