Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 191125
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
625 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR conditions expected throughout most of the day before VFR
conditions return for the second half of the 12Z forecast period.
Current observations at all TAF sites have IFR cigs being
reported. Satellite trends indicate these low clouds to continue
to remain in place for most of the day. Eventually they will begin
to erode with cigs back to VFR levels from south to north. A
chance of a shower or storms is possible in the late morning and
afternoon hours for KGUY/KDHT, otherwise weather should remain
pretty quiet. The last for clouds to dissipate will be at KGUY
after 00Z Saturday where some cloud decks may linger to the end of
the TAF period.

Meccariello

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 255 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A closed upper level low over Colorado had a vort max in the base of
its circulation moving east across eastern Arizona.  A cold front
was pushing south across the east central and southeast Texas
Panhandle. This cold front should move southeast of the CWA by
sunrise.  Upper level diffluence and instability will increase across
the northwest half of the CWA today as the Arizona vort max moves
across this area today. Therefore, will keep the highest pops across
this region. The upper level dynamics and instability may be just
enough to produce some strong thunderstorms with one or two severe
with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Will also keep
some lower pops elsewhere given the increase in upper level
diffluence and the close proximity of the cold front.

Some low pops will be retained across the northern CWA tonight as
the better dynamics continue to move just north of our area.

Will keep Saturday dry as the upper level storm system moves away
from the panhandles.

The panhandles will be under a northwest flow aloft through the rest
of the forecast as a ridge builds across the western U.S. and a
trough gets carved out across the eastern U.S.

This northwest flow aloft will bring an occasional short wave trough
across the region Sunday through Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday the
flow aloft becomes weaker and it may be tougher to bring any
mountain convection all the way into the panhandles.

A strong short wave will move across the panhandles on Monday and
Monday night. This will provide us with the best chance of
precipitation beyond today.

Temperatures will be around normal or below until upper level
heights begin to rise on Thursday brining temperatures above normal.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/15



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