Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 151100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
600 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

12Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 12Z
Monday. North and northeast winds 5 to 15 knots are expected to
become variable, mostly northeast to southeast becoming south to
southwest, around 5 knots or less after 13Z to 18Z today. A strong
jet just off the surface at the Amarillo TAF site this morning of
55 to 65 knots from the north will result in low level wind shear
probably until around 15Z to 16Z today.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 420 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017/


An overall benign weather forecast will be in place the next several
days. Noteworthy items include temperatures approaching freezing
for our southwest Monday morning. With light winds in place its
possible for a small area to have frost concerns for southwestern
parts of the Texas Panhandle. Otherwise temperatures will rebound
with no frost/freeze potential as it stands now outside of
tonight. Dry conditions are forecast until next weekend.

High pressure will begin to build in over western parts of the CONUS
while the upper level trough continues to push east. We will be
under northwesterly flow eventually becoming zonal by mid week. GFS
and European are out of phase in the upper levels towards the end of
the week, but a trough is forecast to come onto the west coast
around Friday and push east into the Plains. This will be our next
chance for active weather, mainly Saturday night. Its too early to
say with much confidence the severe potential. Currently it
doesn`t look like there will be much instability around Saturday
so thunderstorms could be limited.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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