Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 110452 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1152 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AND THEN THEY WILL
DECREASE WITH THE SETTING SUN. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO
20 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY. SKIES WILL
REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO ACTIVE NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IF CURRENT MODEL INDICATIONS PAN OUT...UNBELIEVABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR JULY WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MAINLY DRY TIMES: TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEAK AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL HIGH
COUNTRY CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S SOUTH TO AROUND 100 NORTH. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE PREVALENT ON SUNDAY THAN ON FRI OR
SAT.

THE MORE ACTIVE TIMES: SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...

AN ANAMOLOUS UPR LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL BUMP THE UPR RIDGE IN CHARGE OF OUR WEEKEND WEATHER TO THE
WEST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT. THIS FIRST FRONT
WILL LIKELY HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH SUN NIGHT AND
MON. A REINFORCING PUSH IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT AS THE MAIN AXIS OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES UPR LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT
PLAINS AND MIDWEST. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK PRETTY DARN GOOD WITH THIS
PUSH, ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN PANHANDLES AND HAVE UPPED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROMOTE AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY AND WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE WELL OVER AN INCH, HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVE PROCESSES SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL
HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON WHEN AND WHERE STORMS FORM THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BEHIND THE
MON NIGHT COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES COULD VERY WELL RESEMBLE OCTOBER,
WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY FAILING TO REACH 80 IN MOST PLACES TUE, WED, AND
THU.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE WEATHER AND FUEL CONDITIONS.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/05





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