Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 251734
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1234 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE
EVENING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING MAY
HELP LIMIT CONVECTION FROM FORMING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A MVFR TO IFR DECK ALSO DEVELOPING
THAT TIMEFRAME FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON TWO SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS FEATURE
WAS MOSTLY CONVECTION FREE SO FAR BUT WITH INCREASING ASCENT OVER A
REGION OF DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS...AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY OCCUR THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SO WILL THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION.
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLES. LATER IN THE DAY FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A SECOND WEAKER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
AND MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY AND
TEMPERATURES COOL IN A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS.

FOR THE MID RANGE PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A TENDENCY FOR HEIGHT RISES AS FLAT/LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF TEXAS AND MUCH
OF OKLAHOMA WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND A DIFFUSE/TRANSIENT DRYLINE. THE
LACK OF ANY NOTABLE WAVES IN THE FLOW LEAVES SOME DOUBT IN HOW
SHARP THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BECOME AND HOW MUCH OF A
NORTHWESTWARD SURGE OF VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS JUST TO OUR EAST
WILL OCCUR ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AND PEAK WITH
DIURNAL HEATING LASTING INTO THE EVENING BOTH DAYS. THE MOST APPARENT
SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED.

A GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARD A PATTERN OF LESS MOMENTUM IN THE LOWER
LATITUDES AND FOCUS OF STRONGER WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LATITUDES
CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE MORE NOTABLE ALBEIT WEAKER
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES BY LATE WEEK BRINGING THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD THEN.
THEREAFTER SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS OCCUR TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON HOW FAST THIS LATE WEEK UPPER TROUGH WILL
EXIT THE REGION. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WERE RETAINED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT COMMENSURATE WITH THE FASTER ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/03




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