Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 210508

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1208 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

06Z TAF Cycle

Showers and thunderstorms will linger tonight across the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles tonight, however confidence too low at this
time to include in current TAF forecast for any of the three TAF
sites. Amarillo TAF site has the best chance of seeing possible
thunderstorms between 06Z and 08Z today with the Guymon TAF site
having the least chance for the remainder of tonight. Better
chances for showers and thunderstorms for all three TAF sites
after about 22Z today and 01Z Thursday. VFR conditions are
expected for all three TAF sites through 06Z Thursday. Southeast
to south and southwest winds 10 to 20 knots or 15 to 25 knots
with some gusts near 25 and 30 knots at all three TAF sites.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 526 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/

A few thunderstorms may affect the DHT and GUY TAF sites this
evening. The strongest storms will be capable of producing hail
and gusty winds. At this point, it looks like the showers and
storms will dissipate before moving near the AMA TAF site.
Southerly winds will be around 10 knots or less overnight, but
then they will increase by mid morning on Wednesday. Skies are
expected to remain VFR outside of thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 413 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/

Latest satellite image is showing cumulus cloud building across
most of the Panhandles, especially across the western Panhandles
near the surface trough over NE New Mexico and SE Colorado where
showers and storms are initiating over the high terrain as well
into portions of SW Kansas. Satellite wind profiles of
northwesterly flow of 15-25 kts at 600-450 hPa shows perhaps
enough flow to move these storms into the northern and western
Panhandles. As the storms move east, latest hi-res analysis shows
good DCAPE environment of around 1500 J/kg in-conjunction with
shear of 30-40 kts. With supporting inverted-v forecast soundings
over parts of the northern Panhandles, if storms make it into our
region, strong winds will be the primary threat. Large hail cannot
also be completely ruled out. Storms should dissipate as we lose
daytime heating into the evening hours. Low temperatures tonight
will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

This similar pattern of diurnally driven storms will continue
throughout the remainder of the work week with best chances across
the northern and western Panhandles. As an upper level high
pressure sits over AZ/NM, these bouts of energy riding over the
ridge will help initiate convection over the high terrain over CO
and NM and move southeast over our region. Some of the storms on
Wednesday could also be strong and will be monitored with updates
to the forecast as we get closer.

A cold front will slowly move from north to south across the
Panhandles during the day on Friday. Along and out ahead of the
front, showers and storms may develop with the given surface
forcing. Latest 25/12Z models are not in accord once we go past
Friday night. ECMWF is drier compared to the GFS going forward as
the main 800-600 hPa temperatures advection lags behind the main
front. This may provide additional mid level instability as the
temperature contrast swings thorough the region, hence slight
chances POPS remains through the weekend as a surface trough may
set up across eastern NM providing diurnally driven convection.
Blended guidance reflects current precipitation forecast. The
main weather change behind the front will be nice cool air
returning to region with highs on Sunday in the 70s.

Upper level ridge of high pressure looks to build back north as
we go into next week. This will bring tranquil conditions back to
the region, with only a slight chance of a shower or storm in the
far western areas. Otherwise, temperatures will warm up to near or
slightly above average as we go into next week.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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