Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 211815
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
115 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD THOUGH AGAIN THERE WILL BE SOME EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST IS A
BIT OF MVFR LOW CLOUD COVER INITIALLY AT KDHT. THE SECOND COULD BE
SOME LOW CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT MONDAY MORNING AT ANY OF THE SITES.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME THUNDER AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT
KAMA. WINDS WILL VEER FROM NE TO SE THIS EVENING.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR DALHART TO DUMAS TO
LIPSCOMB. A SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER HEMPHILL AND ROBERTS COUNTIES EARLIER IS
DEVELOPING SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST INTO GRAY AND CARSON COUNTIES.
HOWEVER, THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH,
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE RAP.

BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN/STORMS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF A DALHART TO WHEELER LINE. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT, MAINLY
DUE TO IMPRESSIVE VEERING HODOGRAPHS (DIRECTIONAL SHEAR). WITH A
LITTLE HEATING, AN AXIS OF MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG
WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS, BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-40. DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS, PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES UP TO 1.30 INCHES, EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS,
AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR BACKBUILDING STORMS (ESPECIALLY THE SW TEXAS
PANHANDLE), HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
KAMA...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SO EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH/VCTS
COULD DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 16Z-23Z
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY
RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.

KDHT AND KGUY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT VCSH/VCTS OCCURRING BETWEEN
15Z-22Z.

KNS

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND
15Z OR SO TODAY ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY TONIGHT AS A COOL SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE
PANHANDLES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR ANY
CONVECTION TODAY TO END FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL
DEAMPLIFY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE ROCKIES EARLY
THIS WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DEEPEN BY MID WEEK. BREEZY DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLY BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A SEASONABLY COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/06




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.