Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 220556

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1256 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

For the 06z TAFs...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected
overnight as mid-level disturbance passes over Oklahoma Panhandle
while richer moisture is drawn into western part of forecast area.
MVFR ceilings expected to develop before sunrise at northern
terminals and around 16z at AMA.  Weak cold front will shift
surface winds to north by 18z at northern terminals, and around
21z at AMA.  Additional thunderstorms expected with passage of
this feature, primarily at AMA where timing of upper support will
be more favorable.  Stronger cold front arrives shortly after 06z
Tuesday, just beyond the scope of this forecast.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 618 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

00Z TAF Cycle

Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms will affect all
three TAF sites through about 20Z to 22Z Monday. VFR ceilings
should become MVFR in and near the showers and thunderstorms
between 00Z Monday and 19Z to 22Z Monday and then VFR conditions
are expected once again at all three TAF sites after 22Z Monday.
Southeast to south winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts near 30 knots
will diminish to around 5 to 15 knots after 02Z to 04Z Monday.
Winds are expected to shift to the north after 16Z to 20Z Monday
10 to 15 knots.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 427 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

A surface trough across eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico
will result in gusty southeast to south winds across most of the
forecast area through tonight. An upper trough tracking east out
of the central and southern Rockies will allow for isolated to
widely scattered convection mainly over the northwestern portions
of the Panhandles early but then spreading south and east across
the remainder of the forecast area by 12Z Monday. A surface low
will develop on the surface trough Monday as frontogenesis occurs
by late Monday. The cold front will track across the Panhandles
Monday night as convection lingers across much of the Panhandles
through Monday night. Cool surface ridge to build in across the
forecast area behind the front Tuesday as drier air works in
behind the departing upper trough and with gusty northerly winds.
some lingering showers will be possible across the southern
portions of the Texas Panhandle. Warmer and drier conditions
during the latter half of the week into the upcoming weekend as
the surface ridge builds south and east away from the Panhandles
as surface low pressure develops once again to the lee of the
Rockies. Convection chances return by Saturday night and Sunday as
a northern stream upper trough tracks south and east across the
central and northern Rockies.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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