Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 222337 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
537 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

For the 00Z TAFs, tranquil weather expected through sunrise Monday.
Southwest winds will increase and become gusty again by mid to late
Monday morning and remain that way through the afternoon hours as a
surface trof of low pressure develops over ern CO extending southward
into ern NM. Periods of high level clouds are also anticipated for
this fcst cycle.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 327 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

An upper closed low has moved out of Texas and into the lower MS
Valley while an upper level ridge builds into the southern Plains
per water vapor imagery. The Panhandles will see northwest flow
aloft through today. This will transition to southwesterly flow
through Monday as our next system digs in out of the Pac NW.

The upper level ridge will lead to large scale subsidence across the
Panhandles Monday. Temperatures will rise into the 60s and 70s
across the Panhandles as BL mixing takes place under mostly clear
skies. Winds will be breezy to windy Monday afternoon as the ridge
begins to break down under southwesterly flow aloft. Relative
humidity is expected to drop into the 20 to 25 percent range
especially across the southern and western zones. With recent
rain...don`t currently anticipate elevated fire weather
conditions Monday as soil/fuel moisture should keep surface dew
points up.

On Tuesday...a strong mid level jet will sweep across the Panhandles
ahead of the Pac NW trough. This along with lee side cyclogenesis
along the Front Range will lead to strong wind potential across the
Panhandles. Depending on how quickly the surface low ejects out onto
the Central Plains will have a large impact on how windy it gets
in the Panhandles. The latest guidance does advance this feature
more quickly which relaxes the pressure gradient and pushes a cold
front in before best mixing takes place. Still thinking advisory
criteria winds will be possible mainly for the southwestern zones
as they will be closer to the mid level jet. The cold front will
move through the Panhandles during the evening and overnight
hours. Cold air advection will be fairly strong behind the front
as temperatures drop into the 20s going into Wednesday morning.
Precipitation looks unlikely for the Panhandles for this event as
best lift will be well north and moisture will be limited. On the
other hand, fuels will be more susceptible to fire growth
Tuesday...but min RH still looks to be a limiting factor for
elevated fire weather.

Guidance continues to suggest the Panhandles will be in mostly zonal
to northwest flow aloft going into the latter part of the week. This
will keep our temperatures around or below average with dry
conditions persisting. ECMWF and GFS models do show a low cutting
off of the main northern flow and moving towards the Baja regions
going into early next week.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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