Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 231719

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1119 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals during the TAF
period. Southwest to west winds will be BTWN 25 to 35 kts with
gusts up to 50 kts possible thru 24/02Z. A cold front will move
across the region AFT 234/02Z, with winds switching out of the
northwest BTWN 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Winds will
taper BTWN 24/08Z thru 24/15Z, before picking up to 15 to 25 kts
AFT 24/15Z.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 446 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/


A combination of very strong winds and low relative humidity values
will produce extremely critical fire weather conditions today
across the panhandles of both Texas and Oklahoma. A High Wind
Warning, Wind Advisory, and a Red Flag Warning are all in effect
today given the strong winds and dry conditions. Please see the
latest products for more information on timing and impacts.

Forecast soundings this afternoon are showing deep mixing and clear
skies. We should have no problem tapping into the stronger winds
aloft and mixing these down to the surface. The stronger wind speeds
will be across western parts of both the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles. This is where the High Wind Warning will be located.
Central parts of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles will be under a
Wind Advisory. Overall its going to be very windy day, and these
strong southwest winds will be advecting drier air in which will
result in single digit relative humidity values across much of the
Panhandles. As a result, all of the Panhandles will be under a Red
Flag Warning due to extremely critical fire weather conditions, and
confidence is very high these conditions will be met today. Extreme
caution should be used today when dealing with anything that could
potentially start a fire because one could become explosive very

Between Friday and Tuesday each day there will be at least the
possibility for elevated fire weather conditions. Otherwise, beyond
fire weather threats, temperatures will be near normal to above
normal. Dry conditions are forecast through the extended as well.
There is a small chance our eastern zones could see some
precipitation Sunday/Sunday night but chances for rain appear better
east of the panhandles.



Extremely critical fire weather conditions will exist today across
the Panhandles. In the mid-levels, a combination of a thermal ridge
due to warm air advection, and strong southwesterly flow will create
conditions at the surface conducive to explosive fire growth as we
mix out this afternoon. In addition, the air aloft is also dry as
well as the surface. Overall a very dry airmass will be in place
tomorrow with very strong winds, especially western parts of the
Panhandles. Confidence is very high for these conditions to be met



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Donley...Gray...Hansford...

     High Wind Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...Moore...Oldham...

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Texas.

     High Wind Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron.



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