Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 282044
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
344 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. THE OVERALL
PATTERN OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH FROM ABOUT MID WEEK ONWARD
THERE WILL BE SOME ALTERATIONS THAT HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR AREA.

A WEAK FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. CU/TCU NEAR THE BOUNDARY IS BEING MONITORED BUT SO FAR
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED IN NEW MEXICO. ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK PV ANOMALY MOVING SOUTH INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY JUSTIFYING RETENTION OF LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH UPPER 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WHILE A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THEREAFTER ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS RANGE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE IN A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS AS UPPER HIGH DRIFTS BACK EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  89  65  92  69 /  10  20  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  65  93  66  98  72 /  10  10   5   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              63  88  62  95  68 /  10  20   5   5   5
BORGER TX                  69  93  67  97  74 /  10  20   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              66  92  65  96  70 /  10  20   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  64  90  64  93  67 /  10  30  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               66  92  67  94  70 /  10  20  10   0   0
DALHART TX                 63  92  62  96  67 /  10  20   5   5   5
GUYMON OK                  65  92  65  97  71 /  10  20   5   5   5
HEREFORD TX                65  90  64  93  67 /  10  30  10   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                66  94  66  98  72 /  10  10   5   0   5
PAMPA TX                   65  89  64  93  70 /  10  10  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                67  94  66  96  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              69  95  68  97  72 /  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/17





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