Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 041146

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
546 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016


VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Exception will be for
the next hour or two at KAMA as low clouds are still present, but
working their way out of the area. Satellite imagery shows the band
of low clouds slowly progressing out from northwest to southeast. And
it will be just a matter of time before KAMA is VFR with clear skies.
Winds will start out of the northwest and be generally light, less
than 10 kts for the TAF period. Winds will shift out of the south but
still will be at or below 10 kts around 21-00z today.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 318 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

Warming temperatures during the early portion of the forecast only to
be replaced by some of the coldest conditions of the season around

We will see temperatures return to the 40s and 50s as the upper
trough moves east of the Panhandles later this morning. We reach the
warming peak on Monday as 850mb temperatures of 13C to 14C move into
the Panhandles. These warmer temperatures aloft combined with
southwesterly winds should help push our high temperatures into the
mid 50s to lower 60s.

Late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, we will get our first
taste of the colder conditions to come as a cold front slides
southwards across the Panhandles. The front is expected to reach the
southern Texas Panhandle by sunrise Tuesday. While surface winds are
expected to shift from a northerly to a northeasterly direction as
the day progresses, our high temperatures will only reach the upper
30s to mid 40s. There remains a bit of discrepancy in the medium
range models as to the timing of the arctic surge. The fastest
solution (the GFS) has the arctic air in the Oklahoma Panhandle by
sunrise Wednesday where as the slower ECMWF/CMC doesn`t bring the
colder air into the Panhandles until the afternoon. Have moderated
high temperatures slightly to account for the slower solutions but
our high temperatures on Wednesday still range from the upper 20s
across the Oklahoma Panhandle to the upper 30s for the extreme
southern Texas Panhandle (basically south of I-40).

With the arctic air firmly in place Wednesday night, we will see our
low temperatures drop into the teens and single digits. These low
temperatures and light winds will likely result in wind chill values
in the single digits and even negative values early Thursday morning.
The Oklahoma Panhandle will have the highest chance to see wind chill
values around -5 degrees, and if our winds can remain 10 mph or
greater for that time period then a Wind Chill Advisory may be

Now before I get to far in the forecast, lets jump back to Tuesday
night and Wednesday as the arctic surge approaches and mention precip
chances. Forecast models have continued to show the potential for the
Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle to see a round of snow, but has
trended drier over the past 24 hours. There is the question of
available moisture and position of the upper jet. The GFS/NAM are
the most generous with precip chances and areal coverage where as the
ECMWF/CMC as much drier. The better precip chances presented in the
GFS/NAM likely has more to do with a more favorable jet position to
the north and east of the Panhandles where as the ECMWF/CMC have the
jet more over the Panhandles. As of right now, have kept mention of
snow in the forecast but have kept storm total amounts around one
half inch or less. Expect adjustments to this portion of the
forecast over the coming days.

The arctic airmass will remain entrenched across the Panhandles
causing Thursday`s high temperatures to hover around the freezing
mark with overnight lows dropping into the teens. Weak upper ridging
builds into the Panhandles for Friday which will allow our
temperatures to recover to the 40s area wide. Looking towards next
weekend, we could see another cold front drop across the Panhandles
but the post-frontal airmass as of right now doesn`t appear to be
nearly as cold as the midweek one.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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