Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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778
FXUS64 KAMA 231740
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1240 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.AVIATION...
The majority of the 18Z TAF period will feature VFR conditions. A
cold front continues to work east out of central New Mexico. This
feature will provide VCTS conditions shortly after 00Z Saturday for
KDHT/KGUY. At times if thunderstorms do move over the TAF sites, MVFR
and even brief IFR conditions are possible before 06Z Saturday. VCTS
conditions are also expected at KAMA after 12Z Saturday as the cold
front makes its way through which may linger towards the end of the
TAF period for KAMA. Otherwise after 12Z Saturday, VFR conditions
will return with SCT high clouds for KDHT/KGUY through to the end of
the TAF period.

Meccariello

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Closed mid-level low over eastern Nevada at this time expected to
lift northeast today, with shortwave trof to its south moving slowly
eastward toward Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.  Strengthening
southwest flow aloft will be sufficient to produce shear for
organized thunderstorms this evening, with SPC denoting a marginal
risk for severe thunderstorms across the northern half of the
forecast area.  A slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms will be
retained today for northwestern sections, where Pacific cold front or
dryline will provide a focus for development.  As boundary advances
eastward tonight strengthening low-level jet will enhance further
development.  Chances for thunderstorms tonight spread east to
encompass all sections.

On Saturday, eastern sections continue with higher pops, owing to
richer and deeper moisture along and east of Pacific front.  On
Saturday night, polar cold front overtakes earlier boundaries,
sweeping through Panhandles by sunrise Sunday.  Much cooler air will
be brought into the area via brisk north winds.  Pops on Sunday will
be ending from the north, with rain showers still being possible
across southern sections Sunday night and Monday.  No pops in later
periods.  Fall-like weather expected Sunday through Tuesday, with
highs remaining below 80.  Gradual warmup thereafter.

Cockrell

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/16



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