Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 220542

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1242 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017


For the 06Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period.

Main concern will be low level wind shear this morning. Models all
point towards a low level jet around 1000 feet between 45 and 55
knots through the next several hours. There is also some
directional shear as well around 30 degrees. That being said, it
was definitely noteworthy for this TAF cycle and decided to
include the low level wind shear.

Also, there will be chance for thunderstorms later this
afternoon/early evening. KDHT really has the best shot for these
chances in this TAF period. KAMA and KGUY will be close. Look for
future TAFs to have these chances if parameters change.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 539 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

VFR conditions will persist through the 00z TAF period.
Sustained winds will be predominately out of the south at 15
knots. Later on around 15Z the winds will pick up to 15-20 knots
sustained with gust to 25-30 knots. DHT could see a possible
thunderstorm between 18Z and 24Z, during which MVFR conditions
could be possible.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 406 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

Abundant sunshine and westerly component to low-level winds have
allowed temperatures to rise into the 90 to 100 degree range
across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles today.  Low-level
moisture remains confined to eastern sections ahead of dryline-
like feature where surface dewpoints have held into the 50s and
lower- to mid-60s.  Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening in these eastern sections, with strong to
marginally severe gusts possible. Any thunderstorms should
diminish rapidly with loss of insolation, as upper support remains

Models and ensembles in good agreement regarding longwave mid-
level trof over western CONUS for the next several days, with a
slow eastward translation.  This will result in strengthening
mid- and upper-level flow, which will lead to strong moist
southerly low-level flow.  The low-level jet is expected to
develop overnight for the next several days, with speeds of 30 to
55 knots nightly.  The influx of moisture will give us a
prolonged stretch of unsettled weather, with thunderstorms
becoming increasingly likely through the weekend.  The threat for
widespread severe weather will generally be low, but heavy and
repeated rains will likely lead to flooding concerns.

Thunderstorm chances on Friday and Friday night will be mainly
across the western half of the forecast area, where instability
will be maximized and stronger flow aloft will provide better
opportunities for vorticity advection.  Chances rise on Saturday
and Saturday night as the dynamics and moisture improve.  By
Sunday and Sunday night, higher pops become oriented over central
and eastern sections, with all areas having healthy pops.

By Monday, drier air expected to begin working into the northwest
half of the forecast area, with western section pops continuing to
be the lower.  The cold front associated with the dynamic system
expected to move into the area Monday and Monday night.  By
Tuesday, north and northeast post-frontal flow expected, but
chances for rain will continue due to expected isentropic lift.


No fire weather concerns are expected for the Panhandles for the
next seven days.  Multiple opportunities for rain will exist
through Wednesday and relative humidities will remain well above
20 percent.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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