Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 270943
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
443 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EVOLVING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
OF WEST TEXAS. THIS AS MOISTURE ALOFT ORIGINATING NEAR HURRICANE
MARIE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC STREAMS NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS. CONCERNS
INCLUDE INCREASING RISKS OF FLASH FLOODING...WITH ACTIVITY PEAKING
LATE THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY...REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS MULTIPLE WAVES OF CONVECTION EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES. LOCALIZED
RAINFALL RATES THIS MORNING UPWARDS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES/HOUR HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED NEAR BOOKER /LIPSCOMB COUNTY/. A LULL IN CONVECTION IS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH LATE TODAY TO PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS TO INCREASE UPWARDS
OF 1000 J/KG...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS CAPABLE OF
LOCALIZED/BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR AN ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. SBCAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 2000 J/KG
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND WARRANT A THREAT OF A FEW STORMS STORMS.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ADDITIONALLY INDICATE PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING...BUT VALUES
APPROACHING 2 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF SIGNALED TRENDS
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS/RAINS CONTINUE.

FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST/GRIDS FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO DRY/WARM UP BY THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO REBUILD THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THIS FAR
NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...BUT LEE TROUGHING WILL
DEEPEN AND PROMOTE HOT TEMPERATURES BENEATH MODEST NEAR ZONAL FLOW.

LINDLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                89  64  85  62  83 /  30  40  50  50  30
BEAVER OK                  94  67  89  63  86 /  40  50  60  60  30
BOISE CITY OK              86  60  85  58  83 /  40  30  50  50  20
BORGER TX                  90  71  87  65  85 /  30  40  50  50  30
BOYS RANCH TX              92  63  88  60  85 /  30  30  40  40  20
CANYON TX                  92  63  85  61  83 /  30  40  50  50  20
CLARENDON TX               93  68  87  65  85 /  20  40  50  50  30
DALHART TX                 88  60  85  58  83 /  40  30  40  40  20
GUYMON OK                  90  64  89  61  85 /  30  40  60  60  30
HEREFORD TX                89  61  87  60  84 /  30  40  40  40  20
LIPSCOMB TX                93  68  87  64  86 /  30  50  60  60  30
PAMPA TX                   90  67  85  62  84 /  20  50  60  60  30
SHAMROCK TX                92  69  91  65  87 /  20  40  60  60  30
WELLINGTON TX              95  70  93  66  88 /  20  30  50  50  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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