Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 292215
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
515 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Some clearing is on the way to the south as radar reflectivity is
on the decline across the Panhandles. The low centered over
southern Kansas will continue to pull away to the northeast
tonight. The northern TX and OK Panhandle will likely clear out
last as the center of the low will still remain fairly close in
proximity tonight.

Drier air will be in store for the Panhandles Thursday and into
early Friday. Winds will be out of the south and will draw up
warmer air. NAM model is not as aggressive with the the warmer
air, and in fact, keeps the OK Panhandle quite cool on Friday.
If NAM comes in line with the other models, temperatures will need
to be tweaked up a bit, as some models have 850H temperatures
across the southeast Panhandle at 20C. Current forecast does not
support warm enough temperatures for this scenario.

Friday and Saturday...The next upper level low is progged to
generally move over the four corners region Friday morning. Dry
southerly flow will be associated ahead of this system. The track
of this low will play a significant role in thunderstorm
development and the severity of the storms. Models seem to be
favoring the northern portion of the Panhandles for storms,
mainly north of I-40. Although, there are some limiting factors
for storm development. One model has better instability over the
TX Panhandle, and the other favors the OK Panhandle. Both models
have a lot of favorable ingredients for possible severe weather,
but sufficient instability could be lacking. NAM 0-6km bulk shear
is upwards of nearly 90kts, with 1000-1300 J/kg of CAPE and a good
veering profile. But this may be too much shear and might tear
the storms apart before they can mature. GFS is more focused on
the OK Panhandle Friday and Saturday. The shear again looks to
strong on Friday as the instability is even less than the NAM, but
there is a little less shear on Saturday with CAPE values around
1000 J/kg, which might be just enough to keep the storms from
shearing apart. All in all, it`s going to take more monitoring to
determine where the best chances of showers/thunderstorm and the
severity for this weekend. For now the lowest POPS are to the
south and will increase northward, peaking at the OK Panhandle.
Have just left the thunderstorms in the slight chance to chance
category as we continue to iron out the details of this weekend.

Saturday night into Sunday, models have the low splitting off
into two open wave troughs, one tracking through the Dodge City
area, and another tracking south towards San Angelo. Cooler drier
northerly flow behind is expected. This will quickly transition to
a westerly then southwesterly flow by Monday afternoon and
evening. As a result Mondays highs are expected to be 10 to 15
degrees warmer than Sunday.

Models diverge significantly on Tuesday, although it should be
noted that Tuesday has the next potential for active weather after
the weekend system. The next upper low is progged to impact the
Panhandles as early as Monday night to as late as Tuesday
evening. All three extended models, ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian,
have different solutions with signficantly different outcomes.
From a dry slot wind event, to showers and maybe thunderstorms
over the northern Panhandle areas, to a possible Panhandle severe
weather set up. Stay tuned for updates on the weekend system and
the system mid next week.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Issuance...MVFR conditions will continue until around 00Z
when clouds look to start rising and breaking up. VFR conditions
should persist afterwards through the end of the period. Northwest
winds will be gusty while clouds persist then ease.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                37  69  41  72  44 /  10   5   0   0  20
Beaver OK                  38  65  40  60  43 /  50   5   0   5  50
Boise City OK              34  67  37  59  38 /  30   0   0  10  60
Borger TX                  40  69  42  71  45 /  20   5   0   0  30
Boys Ranch TX              36  71  41  74  43 /  10   5   0   5  20
Canyon TX                  37  71  40  75  43 /  10   5   0   5  10
Clarendon TX               41  70  43  73  48 /  10   5   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                 34  68  39  66  40 /  20   0   0   5  40
Guymon OK                  36  67  38  61  42 /  50   5   0   5  60
Hereford TX                36  70  42  76  43 /  10   0   0   5  10
Lipscomb TX                40  66  41  66  45 /  40  10   0   5  30
Pampa TX                   38  67  41  70  43 /  20   5   0   5  20
Shamrock TX                42  69  44  72  50 /  20   5   0   0  10
Wellington TX              43  71  44  74  52 /  20   5   0   0  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/16


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