Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 291709
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1209 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...STRONG NORTH WINDS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST OVER 30 KTS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE BEGINNING
TO DISSIPATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL STEADILY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS MID TO
LATE MONDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS.

KB/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NOW
AND ROUGHLY 15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
AFTER A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES TODAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES
MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY WHICH WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MIX EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLES.

CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A FEW OR SOME STORMS MAY POSSIBLY BECOME STRONG BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE
WEST BY WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN USHERING IN A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF EACH
COLD FRONT. MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AFTER THE REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER
AIR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING BY
15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...EVEN THOUGH THE DRIER AIR TRACKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT THE 3-HOUR
TEMPORAL CRITERIA TO BE MET BEFORE THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS FALL BELOW
20 MPH AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
AGAIN.

THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OR SO. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY OF AROUND 18 TO 26 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05





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