Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 302004
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
304 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

JUST A FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. FOUND IT ODD THAT
THE MODEL GUIDANCE THINKS OUR COLDEST MORNING OF THE FALL WILL BE
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE WINDS ARE BLOWING AT 10-25 MPH FROM THE
SOUTH. ON THAT ISSUE...REMAINED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE...THE THORN IN OUR SIDE CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE
UPR AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE CONFUSED WITH WHAT TO DO
WITH A DIGGING WRN TROUGH AND A DYING EPAC TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/GEM IDEA OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THAT
THINKING. DID INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES FOR MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES MON/MON NIGHT AS CONSENSUS GROWS FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THIS PERIOD.

TEMPS-WISE...HIGHS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM THE UPR 50S TO LOW 70S WITH
CURRENT INDICATIONS THAT TOMORROW AND TUE WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS.
LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH A FEW PLACES WILL
LIKELY TAP 32 BRIEFLY AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT WEEK (TONIGHT, FRI
NIGHT, AND TUE NIGHT LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHTS).

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                37  61  38  64  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  35  56  35  63  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              34  59  40  66  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  39  61  40  65  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              36  63  40  67  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  37  62  38  65  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               40  62  35  62  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 33  61  39  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  35  59  38  66  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                37  63  38  65  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                36  58  36  61  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   38  59  37  60  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                40  61  35  60  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              41  63  36  62  44 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/09





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