Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 012049
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE CHANGING FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST MODELS NOW HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE. TIMING AND LOCATION OF QPF DIFFERS
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT OVERALL IDEA IS FOR UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BRING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PANHANDLES ON AND OFF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL AFTER TUESDAY...AS
THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTION...AND BECAUSE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. IF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
GENERATES SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COME IN COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/06





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