000
FXUS64 KAMA 241204 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
704 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST SHAPING UP TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BEING THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE LED TO LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR CIGS AT THE KGUY
TERMINAL WHILE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...CONDITIONS REMAIN AT VFR.
EXPECT KGUY TO BECOME VFR LATER THIS MORNING WITH ALL THREE TERMINALS
REMAINING VFR THROUGH 12Z SAT. THIS IS CONTINGENT UPON IF STORMS
DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINAL HOWEVER GIVEN THE ISOLD NATURE OF ANY
STORM DEVELOPMENT CONFIDENCE IN MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND/OR VISBYS IS
LOW. AS MENTIONED MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL LATER TODAY. PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
HOWEVER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PRETTY WEAK WITH THE ONLY SURFACE
LIFT PROVIDED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL REMAIN
IN EASTERN NM. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCTS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS
STARTING BETWEEN 19-00Z WITH AN EARLIER START TIME AT KDHT/KGUY PER
LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS. LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AT THE TAIL END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS AT VFR WITH SCT020.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE PROGGED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY THE SAME AS SEEN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. BROAD SW FLOW TO PERSIST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY EDGES OFF TO THE EAST. THE SFC DRYLINE WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUSING BOUNDARY FOR TSTM INITIATION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FOLLOWED BY
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS SECONDARY MECHANISMS. IT APPEARS TSTM
COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE ISOLD DURING THE COMING DAYS AND
INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THE MID LEVEL WARM LAYER...ALSO
KNOWN AS A CAPPING INVERSION...CAN BE BREACHED. THAT SAID...USED
AREAL QUALIFIER WORDING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLD TO SCT
COVERAGE. THEN SLGT CHC POPS SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLGT
CHC POPS ROUGHLY ERN HALF OF FCST AREA MON THRU TUE NIGHT. IF STORMS
CAN MANAGE TO FORM...A FEW MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON UA PATTERN MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH RESPECT TO HOW THE VIGOROUS WRN US TROF EJECTS. 00Z ECMWF
IS A BIT SLOWER AND HAS A MORE CLOSED OFF SOLUTION...AND ALSO OFFERS
MORE IN WAY OF PRECIP FOR WED AND WED NIGHT. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
DRIER OVERALL. HOWEVER...06Z GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT TOWARDS 00Z ECMWF.
DECIDED ON RETAINING SLGT CHC POPS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT AREAWIDE AS
A COMPROMISE THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. MODELS DO PUSH THIS FEATURE EAST
OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND HAVE SUGESTED A DRIER SCENARIO FOR
THAT DAY.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$