Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 262044
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
344 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS LED TO
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO
TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS. WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
/INCLUDING PALO DURO CANYON/ THROUGH 9 PM GIVEN THIS HEAT. HOWEVER ANOTHER
WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE PROGRESS TO
THE SOUTH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS DEVELOPING
FURTHER UPSTREAM MAY GIVE IT A PUSH A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...LARGELY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER. STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK BUT HIGH
CLOUD BASES CAN RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.LONG TERM...
THE START OF THE LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/ WILL KICK OFF A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WITH MUCH COOLER AND WETTER WX LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE BACK OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP AND AN UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...AND WITH THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONING TO
THE NORTHWEST WHILE SURFACE WINDS VEER OUT OF AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE
DIRECTION...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEK SUGGESTING INTERMITTENT RAIN
CHANCES ALTHOUGH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN WHEN THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR. MAY HAVE TO ENTERTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOMETIME THIS WEEK DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY...DURATION...AND COVERAGE OF THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION.

A WELCOME RETURN TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS
HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA FALL AND COOLER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THICK CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP TO HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                68  90  64  82  62 /  10  30  50  40  40
BEAVER OK                  71  92  65  88  63 /  20  30  40  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              67  85  63  84  62 /  30  40  50  40  40
BORGER TX                  73  92  67  85  66 /  10  30  50  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              70  92  66  86  65 /  10  30  50  40  40
CANYON TX                  67  91  65  83  63 /   5  30  50  40  40
CLARENDON TX               71  95  67  85  64 /   5  20  40  40  40
DALHART TX                 65  88  63  82  62 /  20  40  60  40  40
GUYMON OK                  70  90  66  87  63 /  20  30  50  40  40
HEREFORD TX                65  91  64  82  62 /  10  30  40  40  40
LIPSCOMB TX                72  92  66  87  64 /  20  30  40  40  30
PAMPA TX                   70  91  65  84  63 /  10  30  50  40  40
SHAMROCK TX                70  96  66  85  65 /  10  20  40  40  30
WELLINGTON TX              71  99  69  89  65 /   5  20  40  40  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...HANSFORD...HUTCHINSON...OCHILTREE...
     RANDALL...ROBERTS.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TEXAS.


&&

$$

11/05







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