


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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465 FXUS64 KAMA 290509 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1209 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Less coverage of storms today and tonight but increasing potential on Sunday and Monday with wind gusts and heavy rain being the main hazards. Chances of showers and thunderstorms remain present through the holiday week with each day seeing roughly 15 to 40% chances each day. Increasing heat toward the holiday weekend with temperatures returning to the lower 90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Chances of precipitation look to be present once again as we move into Sunday afternoon, with multiple models seeing the first of many short-wave troughs move into the Panhandles. At this time latest guidance is giving us a roughly 30 to 50% chance of seeing precipitation, with the high chances looking to follow in late evening hours thanks to the passage of a cold front. Add to this will be some of the moisture retreating back and giving us PWAT values around 1.25 to 1.4 inches that could lead to more moderate to heavy rainfall. However, the severe potential is still a little questionable as many of the CAMs do show MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg but little to no wind shear to keep it organized. Regardless, the combined effort of the excess moisture and cold frontal passage could see storms run into overnight, especially for the southeast. Moving into Monday, will see another round of chances for showers and thunderstorms present for the Panhandles with models seeing a secondary mid-level short-wave push in. Unlike Sunday, latest CAM analysis is seeing better wind shear present, but with CAPE values falling off instead. Still, there may be enough to see a storm organized enough to create severe weather, but current indications would be more focused on winds. Regardless, the presence of this mid-level disturbances under weak upper-level flow could see storms stay present for much of Monday with potential to once again run into the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 A more stagnate pattern looks to form as we inch closer to the holiday with models seeing a new upper-level high build over the Southern United States. However, this stagnate upper-level flow does not necessarily mean that we cant see precipitation with many models seeing a series of short-wave troughs move across the mid-levels of the atmosphere through Wednesday. After which, we see a main upper-level trough follow and break down the high pressure for the holiday and it following weekend. These troughs will help provide enough instability to create 15 to 35% chances of showers and thunderstorms clear into Independence Day and the weekend that follows. Of course these chances will also come with the threat of severe weather. However, the expected atmospheric set may see chances being similar to what we saw this week, which was high CAPE values that can create quick pop-up storms but no wind shear to keep it organized or sustained. Regardless these chances will aid in keeping temperature down under this stagnate pattern with afternoon highs staying in the 80s to low 90s clear into the holiday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. There`s a slight chance that a storm may make it`s way over any of the TAF sites between 0-6z, but not enough for a PROB30 or TEMPO. If a storm looks to impact a TAF site, we`ll deal with it via amendments, due to low probabilities at this time. Winds generally out of the south in the 10 to 15kt range with scattered mid to high clouds, assuming no thunderstorms develop. Weber && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...89