Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 150831
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
331 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

In the upper levels, there was a cutoff low moving southwest near
SAN, a high was just off of the Washington coast and there was a
broad ridge over the eastern third of the U.S.  A weak vort max was
moving northeast from Mexico into southwest Texas.  A southwest flow
remained over the Panhandles on the eastern side of the broad trough
that held the Southern California low.

The weak vort max moving into southwest Texas is expected to help
develop showers and thunderstorms in that area just before sunrise.
This area of rain is then expected to slowly lift north northeast
across the Panhandles late this morning into the afternoon. However,
the rain is expected to weaken and decrease in coverage as it moves
over the Panhandles.  So again, the best chance of rain will remain
mainly over the southwest half of the Texas Panhandle.

Another upper level disturbance is expected to bring another shot of
rain on Saturday, with the southwest favored again.  Rainfall totals
ending Saturday night are expected to be generally under 0.25", but
there could be some places in the southwest Texas Panhandle that
receive near 0.33".

Highs both today and Saturday are expected to be in the 50`s with a
few 40`s near the New Mexico state line and a few 60`s near the
Oklahoma state line.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A closed upper low is expected to be positioned over parts of New
Mexico, east of the four corners region, by the start of the
extended period 7am Sunday. This low pressure system is forecast
to move back and forth above the southwestern CONUS, due to
thermodynamic influences from another large, strong trough in the
eastern half of the states, and a high pressure system in the
northwest CONUS. By Wednesday and Thursday, the eastern trough
will push out into the Atlantic, and the high pressure center in
the west will weaken. This should allow the upper low to finally
traverse across our CWA; however, it`s strength and position is
still a topic of uncertainty amongst long range guidance. Behind
this upper low, zonal flow should take over the area by next
weekend.

Precipitation looks to continue into Sunday, but higher chances
will favor the western half of the combined Panhandles. If our
low pressure system can move further to the east before it gets
repositioned, PoPs could extend further east as well.
Unfortunately, many model ensemble members of the NBM and LREF do
not depict this outcome. Additionally, deterministic models like
the GFS and ECMWF have the low positioned even further west than
the ensembles. So, a reduction of PoPs is not out of the question
either. By virtue of this precariousness, we have opted to leave
in the NBM`s suggested PoPs for now. PoPs have a chance to return
later this week by Wednesday, mostly in the form of showers with
some thunderstorm chances in the east. High temperatures should be
mild in the 60`s and 70`s, and fire weather conditions are
forecast to be suppressed as a result of increased moisture
availability and light to breezy wind speeds throughout the week.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

DHT should be generally IFR through this forecast until about mid
day when cigs should lift to MVFR. Some light rain will be
possible in the afternoon, but it should not take conditions below
MVFR. GUY should see MVFR conditions through the early afternoon
and then conditions should improve to VFR. AMA should see MVFR
cigs fall into the IFR range before sunrise and then cigs should
return to MVFR by late morning. Some rain showers will be possible
at AMA from the late morning through mid afternoon. Conditions are
then expected to improve to VFR after the rain moves away this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                51  36  54  38 /  50  10  50  10
Beaver OK                  59  33  62  40 /   0  10  20  10
Boise City OK              46  30  54  35 /  40  10  30  20
Borger TX                  56  38  59  41 /  30  10  40  10
Boys Ranch TX              51  36  54  38 /  60  20  40  20
Canyon TX                  50  36  53  37 /  60  20  50  20
Clarendon TX               56  38  54  41 /  50  10  50  10
Dalhart TX                 46  30  53  34 /  50  20  30  20
Guymon OK                  54  31  59  38 /  10  10  20  10
Hereford TX                50  36  53  37 /  60  20  50  20
Lipscomb TX                59  36  60  41 /  10  10  20  10
Pampa TX                   55  37  57  39 /  30  10  40  10
Shamrock TX                59  38  58  42 /  20  10  40  10
Wellington TX              60  40  57  42 /  30  10  50  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...15


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