Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 232158
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
458 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The main line of showers and thunderstorms has pushed into the
western Panhandles. Popcorn showers and thunderstorms have also
been streaming northward ahead of the line across the central and
eastern Panhandles. This area of storms will bring heavy to very
heavy rainfall chances to the area over the next several days and
will be discussed more below. As for the severe threat from any of
the storms, some storms may become strong to marginally severe,
however, with very meager CAPE, miniscule DCAPE, and shear
vectors only supportive of multicells to marginal supercells, feel
that the threat for severe wind or hail will be very hard to get.

The southwest flow aloft responsible for bringing the abundant
moisture to the area will continue through all of next week as
well. Right now there is an upper level trough in the western
CONUS that is digging south. The trough looks to lift and cross
the Rockies Monday which will push a surface front through the
area and drop high temps 10 to 15 degrees in some places from
Sunday to Monday.

As the upper level trough ejects into the northern Great Plains on
Tuesday, mid and long range models continue to trend that energy
will be left behind and form a closed low in the southwestern US.
This will continue to maintain southwest flow for our area and
allow Pacific moisture to flow in along with shortwaves. This will
keep clouds in place and chances for precip across the Panhandles
through the week. By week`s end, an upper level high builds into
the northern Pacific states, creating a Rex block. This will allow
the flow to change to zonal for us and let us finally dry out at
the end of the week.

Beat

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Of the CAMs, the HRRR seems to have the best handle on timing of
the main wave of precip. All CAMs and and hi-res models indicate
the line will continue to move very slowly eastward with precip
training northward. Scattered popcorn showers continue to develop
and stream northward as well. PWATs remain near to above the 90th
percentile. This in conjunction with training storms leads to
concerns of flooding or flash flooding issues, and thus the
issuance and extension in area of the Flash Flood Watch on
previous shifts. Think this area is still valid and will need to
be watched for shifting the watch area eastward as the main
convective line progresses. Areas could receive 1 to 3 inches of
precip over the next few days with isolated higher amounts of up
to 5 inches for spots that see the popcorn showers in addition to
heavier training areas.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66  77  61  70  53 /  80  70  50  70  60
Beaver OK                  69  77  64  69  53 /  50  60  70  80  60
Boise City OK              63  76  56  62  47 /  90  50  50  40  40
Borger TX                  67  78  63  70  55 /  80  70  50  70  60
Boys Ranch TX              66  79  62  70  52 /  80  60  50  60  60
Canyon TX                  65  79  62  71  52 /  80  70  50  70  60
Clarendon TX               68  75  64  71  56 /  40  80  70  80  70
Dalhart TX                 64  77  58  66  49 /  90  50  50  50  50
Guymon OK                  67  77  61  66  50 /  80  70  60  60  50
Hereford TX                64  77  62  72  53 /  80  60  50  70  60
Lipscomb TX                68  78  64  71  55 /  30  60  60  80  70
Pampa TX                   67  75  62  70  55 /  50  70  60  70  60
Shamrock TX                68  79  65  72  58 /  20  60  70  80  70
Wellington TX              69  80  67  74  58 /  20  60  70  80  80

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for the following
     zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hansford...Hartley...Moore...
     Oldham...Sherman.

OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for the following
     zones: Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

89/16


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