Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 281744 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1144 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 25 KT
THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO THEN DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LOWER THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT.  SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME
NORTH BEFORE SUNRISE...AND TO COMMENCE GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT
RANGE AFTER SUNRISE.  ONLY HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS FORECAST FOR KDHT AFTER 14Z THURSDAY AS COOL
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24
HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF ISSUANCE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING AND SHIFT WINDS
FROM A WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAY BE AN ISSUE AT KGUY EARLY ON IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE BUT
SHOULD CLEAR PRIOR TO 18Z. WINDS REMAIN FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GET PUSHED DOWN A
LITTLE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 60S AND 70S
AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SUNSHINE COMPENSATE FOR THE FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
CHILLY SIDE AS UPSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TAKE OVER.
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY
AS A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S.
THE LIFT IN THE DIFFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL ACT TO
SHEAR OUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHUNT IT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO IN THE
PANHANDLES...THE BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING FROZEN PRECIPITATION...
WHILE THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO...YOU WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT
SEEING LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN OVER TO SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LAYERS COOL DOWN BEHIND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE CLOSELY TIED TO ELEVATION WITH THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST GETTING THE MOST SNOWFALL WITH THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST GETTING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL.
WE HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A TAD AS THE MODELS ARE
COMING IN A LITTLE WARMER NEAR THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. AT ANY RATE...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY RANGE
FROM NEAR ONE INCH IN THE EAST TO ALMOST 4 INCHES NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE BY THE TIME IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN GO DRY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/18




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