Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 141139
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
639 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.AVIATION...
12z TAF Cycle:

IFR cigs have developed over the far western Panhandles including
KDHT with some patchy LIFR noted over KHRX (Hereford). The low ST
is expected to spread far enough east to impact KAMA within the
next hour or so. Some areas of BR may also reduce vsbys to
MVFR/IFR through 15z. Clouds are expected to become scattered by
15-16z with VFR conditions expected through the afternoon and
evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will try to move off
the higher terrain of CO/NM this evening. So kept prob30 for all
sites from 00z to 06s. Areas of BR may develop again towards the
end of this forecast cycle resulting in potential MVFR/IFR vsbys.

Ward

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 428 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Regional radar imagery shows the last remaining showers from
yesterday`s MCS diminishing across the Panhandles. There should be
a brief lull in convective activity as slight height rises and
sustenance on the upstream side of yesterday`s short wave settles
over the Panhandles. However, the next shortwave is already
visible on water vapor imagery over western New Mexico. As this
shortwave moves to the east side of the Rockies, we should see
storms redevelop and move into the Panhandles. There is some
uncertainty as to the eastward progression these storms will be
able to make across the Panhandles due to a strong cap presented
in some forecast models. For storms that do develop, forecast
PWATs remain high for this time of year which will keep the risk
for heavy rain in the forecast. There is also expected to be a
fair amount of instability and deep layer shear to warrant mention
of strong to possibly severe storms over the area.

A few forecast models show Monday night storms persisting into
Tuesday morning but should diminish by 15Z at the latest. Another
lull in convective activity will be possible during the daylight
hours before chances increase overnight. This increase in rain
chances are prompted by another shortwave in advance of a long
wave trough moving through the Four Corners Region. Storms are
anticipated to develop over the eastern New Mexico Plains before
spreading over the Panhandles. The greatest rainfall is
anticipated over the northern zones which will be closer to the
passing shortwave while lesser amounts will be across the southern
Texas Panhandle. Forecast instability of 2000-3000 J/kg and deep
layer shear of 20kt to 30kt shows the chance for storms to become strong
to severe. No surprise that localized flooding or flash flooding
will also be a concern given forecast PWATs in excess of 1.5".
Storms will sweep across the Panhandles before exiting prior to
sunrise.

Wednesday looks to be a relatively calm day under temporary
subsidence. There could be a storm across the far eastern
Panhandles Wednesday night as zonal flow allows a shortwave to
move over the area. Zonal to southwest flow is expected to set up
over the Panhandles through the weekend. This will allow for a
series of shortwaves to traverse the Panhandles and keep rain
chances in the forecast.


&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

7/14



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