Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 151926 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
126 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Temps are still holding near freezing for all but far west and far
south. Lowered temps to account using a blend or raw CAM output.
Extended potential for freezing to continue later into the day.
Based on this extended freezing rain advisory to 00z in the SE.
Converted ice storm warning to a winter storm warning to handle
change to sleet...snow and freezing rain mix overnight and extended
that through 12z. Converted all remaining areas from freezing rain
advisory to a winter weather advisory to handle multiple precip types
developing tonight and extended that until 12z as well. Included Deaf
Smith and Randall...although they are iffy for potential of near 1"
snowfall there...but further north and west will be main concern for
wrap around precip. More on this in the aftn package.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR likely will continue through the TAF period with
potential for FZFG, SN, IP, and FZRA through 12z. Most sites will
change to FZFG and SN overnight. Improvement will occur around 18Z
when we may finally see MVFR conditions develop.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 530 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

AVIATION...12Z TAFs...LIFR to IFR conditions is expected to
occur through Monday morning.  Freezing rain has ended at KDHT,
while KAMA should change over to rain AFT 15/14Z and KGUY AFT
15/17Z. Moderate to heavy rain showers, with embedded thunderstorms,
will move across the region as an upper low passes southeast of the
area. Periods of fog or mist will be likely at all terminals, with
best chances at KDHT.  As the low passes to the east, colder air
will filter in and change all precip to snow AFT 16/00Z with
freezing fog possible.  After the TAF period, clearing conditions
should occur Monday afternoon.

Bieda

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 525 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The well advertised freezing rain and ice storm event are well
underway in the OK and TX Panhandles. Largest accumulations of ice on
the order of one half of an inch or more have occurred in the Ice
Storm warning area with generally less than one quarter of an inch
ice accumulation in the Freezing Rain Advisory area. In addition,
several reports of power outages along with tree damage have been
observed. Expect rain and freezing rain with embedded tstms to
continue this morning across most of the area as temperatures hover
near freezing. Current winter weather highlights will remain intact
until expiration at Noon CST today.

The strong, closed upper level low currently located over nwrn
Mexico will move east northeast to near extreme sern NM by late this
afternoon, then track northeast into nwrn OK by 12Z Monday. All
numerical weather models are in decent agreement on the projected
path of this storm system and were accepted. As temperatures climb
above freezing later today, expect periods of rain and tstms with
potentially heavy rain at times. A few of the stronger storms that
develop may be capable of producing small hail.

Then as the cold core of the upper level low pressure system tracks
just to the southeast of the fcst area tonight into early Monday, a
variety of winter precipitation is anticipated, including light
sleet, light snow, and a brief period of light freezing rain psbly
across the nern zones. The greatest threat for accumulating snows
will be across the nwrn half of the fcst area, generally along and nw
of highway 60. At this time...highest snowfall totals on the order of
3 to 4 inches will likely be in the far nwrn counties with lower
amounts of 1 to 2 inches along and northwest of highway 60. Less than
one inch of snowfall accumulation is foreseen in the southeast third
of the TX Panhandle. Additional winter weather highlights will likely
become necessary for tonight across parts of the OK and TX Panhandles,
and will defer that decision to the next shift. Would like to allow
current freezing rain and ice storm highlights to play out first.

Dry weather and moderating temperatures are then expected for Tuesday
through Friday. Medium range models suggest another upper level low
pressure system may impact the srn high plains on Saturday. However,
they continue to disagree on the important details such as projected
path and strength. Therefore, have gone with a model consensus
solution for this fcst pckg pending better agreement.

Andrade

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Hemphill...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Roberts...Wheeler.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Gray...Hansford...
     Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore...Oldham...Potter...Randall...
     Sherman.

     Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
     following zones: Armstrong...Collingsworth...Donley.

OK...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Beaver...Texas.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Cimarron.


&&

$$

29/88



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