Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 210554

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1254 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period. Winds
will be variable with sustained winds up to 10-15 kts during the
day becoming more southerly after 20Z Saturday. Mid and high cigs
will begin to move into TAF sites between 18Z and 00Z Sunday and
linger throughout the remainder of the TAF period. Some
convection may affect KGUY/KDHT toward the end of the TAF period
after 00Z, but confidence is low at this time.



PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 417 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

A surface ridge will move off to the east of the Panhandles
tonight and allow for a surface trough to develop to the lee of
the Rockies in eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico late
tonight and Sunday. An upper trough will approach the Panhandles
by late Sunday which should allow for convection to develop/move
southeast into the northwest portions of the forecast area by 00Z
Monday. As the upper trough tracks east, convection will spread
south and east across the remainder of the Panhandles Sunday night
and Monday into Monday night. A surface low and cold front will
push south across the Panhandles Sunday night and Monday with
upslope surface flow advecting low level moisture into the
forecast area. Convection coverage should increase late Sunday
night into early Monday.

Convection may taper off during the day Monday as the cold front
continues to push further south away from the Panhandles and the
upper trough moves east away from the forecast area. Northwest
flow aloft, however, should allow for convection off the higher
terrain and mountains of southern Colorado and northern New
Mexico to propagate southeast into the northwest Panhandles by
late Monday. As the western end of the frontal boundary begin to
lift north late Monday and Monday night, convection should affect
the western and southern portions of the forecast area. Convection
will be possible over the southwestern portions of the forecast
area Tuesday evening but should quickly move out of the Panhandles
by 06Z Wednesday. Upper ridge to build in over the Intermountain
Region by the middle of next week allowing for much warmer and
drier conditions for the latter half of next week.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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