Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 260337

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1037 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

06Z TAF Cycle

A closed upper low will approach the Panhandles from the southwestern
states through 06Z Friday. VFR conditions will prevail at all three
TAF sites will mainly clear skies to few or scattered high level
clouds. Southerly to southwesterly winds 5 to 15 knots will increase
around 14Z to 16Z Thursday 15 to 25 knots with higher gusts...then
diminishing after 00Z to 01Z to around 5 to 15 knots.



.Prev Discussion... /Issued 614 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

00Z TAF Cycle

Closed upper low over the southwestern states will approach the
Panhandles from the west through 00Z Friday. With the dryline
remaining near the Texas and Oklahoma state line...any convection
Thursday will stay well east of the TAF sites. VFR conditions will
prevail at all three TAF sites with mainly southerly to southwesterly
winds 10 to 20 knots with some highe3r gusts...diminishing to 5 to 15
knots after 01Z Thursday...and then increasing again to around 15 to
25 knots with higher gusts after 14Z to 16Z Thursday.


Prev Discussion... /Issued 508 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

After quiet weather for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles today,
active weather returns to the region tomorrow through early next
week. An upper-level shortwave trough extending from Montana toward
Southern California today will translate eastward through the day
tomorrow. A compact vort max/developing closed low will swing around
the base of the trough as it passes our region tomorrow, with mid-
level height falls across the region and deepening surface low over
SE Colorado in response. This should keep the best moistures and
better severe thunderstorm chances east of the Panhandles tomorrow
afternoon and evening, though moisture may be sufficient enough to
see an isolated storm or two develop in the far eastern Panhandles.

As the upper-level low pulls northward on Friday, the surface low
will lift northeastward as well and push a cold front through the
Panhandles. There may be enough low-level moisture behind the front
and lift from the upper low to generate a few showers and
thunderstorms in the Oklahoma and Northern Texas Panhandles during
the afternoon. No severe weather is expected however. Another quiet
day is expected Saturday, as mid-level height rises and depleted
moisture limit storm potential across the area.

Thunderstorm chances return in earnest for Sunday as moisture
returns to the area and southwest flow aloft brings passing
shortwaves. Also the Panhandles will be located favorably beneath the
left exit region of an upper-level jet, which should enhance synoptic
scale lift across the region. The dryline should not be much of a
factor, but widespread instability should see at least decent chances
for storm development across the area Sunday afternoon and evening.
Some storms could become severe. The dryline should be mostly west of
the Panhandles again on Monday as upper-level flow becomes more
zonal aloft, and thunderstorm chances become more dependent on
passing shortwaves and possible mountain convection moving eastward
onto the Plains. Some storms through early next week could also be
strong to severe.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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