521
FXUS64 KAMA 080534
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1234 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

-Low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms tonight and again
 afternoon and evening.

-Small break from rain chances mid week will then return with
 thunderstorm chances Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A small weather system is passing into the northern panhandles
early this morning causing a small area of thunderstorms. These
thunderstorms find themselves within a marginal environment that
is slowly getting less favorable through the early morning hours.
Still these storms may last allowing them to penetrate into the
north central TX panhandle before dissipating. There is a very
small chance that a few of the storms could become strong with
elevated cores that when they collapse produce localized strong
downburst winds. The hail environment is very unfavorable with
high freezing level so only the strongest of storms should be
able to support hail formation which is a more remote possibility.
After the storms dissipate the rest of the morning will have a
high chance of seeing calm weather. It wont be until the later
afternoon hours that daytime heating will destabilize the
atmosphere enough to allow for the formation of rain showers and
thunderstorms. The environment that these storms would form in is
a marginal one with a 500 to 1000 j/kg of CAPE and almost no
shear. The only real concern is the deep sub cloud base dry layer
creating a inverted V environment that will allow for dry
microbursts. This will allow for any shower or thunderstorms a
very low chance to produce localized severe downburst winds.
Overall coverage of the storms will most likely be small as the
amount of moisture over the panhandles is decreasing as dry air
moves it way into the area from the NW. Going into Tuesday night
and Wednesday morning there is a low chance that a small weather
system moved from KS across the far eastern OK and TX counties. If
this occurs then it could cause some gusty winds during it
passage. Going into Wednesday further dry air moving into the
panhandles will most likely yield calm weather conditions. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be fully ruled out but it will
definitely be an exception.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

The dry air has a moderately high chance of remaining across the
panhandle through the morning hours of Thursday. This will shift
during the afternoon hours as a weather system pushes into the
panhandles bringing moisture and unstable conditions back to the
panhandles. This will have a low to moderate chance of sparking
off rain showers and thunderstorms across the panhandles. Current
indications of the environment indicate that this moisture will
be over a layer of dry air creating elevated thunderstorms. This
would allow for the Thunderstorms on Thursday to produce outflow
winds. Thursday will also most likely be the hottest day of the
week with spots reaching triple digits. So heat will be another
weather risk for Thursday in addition to any thunderstorms. For
Friday and into the weekend the pattern shift to a more NW flow
which will allow further weather system and moisture to push
across the panhandles. This would mean that the this time will
remain active with rain showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

VFR conditions are prevailing this evening at all TAF locations.
There is a very low chance that overnight rain showers and
thunderstorms occur in the panhandles. Only KGUY has chances high
enough to be reflected within the TAF for the morning
thunderstorms. Going into the afternoon and evening hours further
isolated rain showers and thunderstorms have a low chance of
forming in the panhandles. Any of these storms will be capable of
producing strong downburst winds even if the overall chance of
occurrence is very low. Currently the chances of this occurring
were not high enough to reflect in the KAMA or KGUY TAFs. Outside
of this the ambient winds will be weak and southerly through
Tuesday.


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...28