000
FXUS64 KAMA 260534 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1234 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE FROM EARLIER AVIATION AFD REASOING.
ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NWRN TX PNHDL. HOWEVER...COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE...AND THIS PRECLUDES A MENTION OF THIS
WEATHER ELEMENT IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE OK AND FAR NRN TX PNHDLS
TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FCST CYCLE...AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL NEED TO
BE ACCOUNTED FOR IN LATER TAF FCSTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

UPDATE...
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NERN NM AND SERN CO EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE
DISSIPATED. THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR OK PNHDL AND FAR NWRN
TX PNHDL FOR REST OF TONIGHT. REMAINING FCST ELEMENTS FOR TONIGHT ARE
PLAUSIBLE. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND GRIDS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR NERN NM...SERN CO...
AND PARTS OF WRN AND SWRN KS MAY NOT IMPACT KGUY OR KDHT THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED TO OMIT THIS PSBLTY
FOR THIS TAF FCST CYCLE. ISOLD TSTMS MAY FORM AGAIN LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE OK PNHDL AND NW TX PNHDL. HOWEVER...
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE. THERFORE...DECIDED NOT TO MENTION
TSTMS AT KGUY OR KDHT FOR THAT TIME PERIOD AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE AND ONSET OF COOL/MOIST CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK REMAINS THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...AN AGITATED CU FIELD IS PECULATING IN VICINITY OF BLACK
MESA OVER THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS WEAK/SHALLOW INSTABILITY
EXISTS ATOP A DEEPLY HOT/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SHOWERS/STORMS MAY INITIATE THERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS...A RISK OF ERRATIC/STRONG WIND
GUSTS EXIST...BUT PROSPECTS FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE LOW.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW SETTLING OVER EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN
KANSAS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES LATE
SATURDAY...AND WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BETTER PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN DURING WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE ANOTHER HOT DAY.

THE MID/UPPER AIR RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND BEGIN TO AMPLIFY BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE ANTICIPATED COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL INITIALLY IMPACT THE PANHANDLES BY LATE SATURDAY
AS MENTIONED...BUT VERY WELL MAY NOT PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION UNTIL
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AS IT DOES...THE STAGE WILL BE SET
FOR YET ANOTHER MID SUMMER NORTHWEST FLOW EPISODE. THUS RAIN CHANCES
RAMP UP LATE SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL PUSH...AND THEN WILL REMAIN
INTERMITTENT DURING THE WEEK AHEAD AS MOUNTAIN CONVECTION PROPAGATES
SOUTHEASTWARD. TIMING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT...BUT
MODELS TEND TO SUGGEST THE PASSAGE OF A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE AMBIENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. NONE-THE-LESS...THIS PATTERN APPEARS TO PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 40-50 PERCENT POPS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. THUS RELATIVELY COOL/CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
SOME RISK OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

LINDLEY

FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HOT/DRY CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING
THIS AFTERNOON. YET WIDESPREAD GREEN AND RELATIVELY MOIST FUELS
PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT WILDLAND FIRE RISK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TODAY/THIS EVENING AND MAY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF DRY LIGHTNING AND BREEZY/ERRATIC WINDS.
OTHERWISE...A NOTABLE WEATHER CHANCE WILL FOLLOW ANOTHER HOT/DRY DAY
SATURDAY WITH THE ONSET OF MORE MOIST/COOL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

LINDLEY

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$