Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 132352 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
652 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...
NORTH SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO AROUND 35 KT...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO GUST INTO THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING WITH SUCH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALL NIGHT.  AVIATION WEATHER
WARNING FOR GUSTS ABOVE 40 KT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAMA FROM 06Z
MONDAY THROUGH 11Z MONDAY.

MVFR CLOUD LAYER EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMMENCING AROUND 03Z OR 04Z.  SUFFICIENT COOLING
OF ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN FOR TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT
04Z...05Z...AND 06Z AT KGUY...KDHT...AND KAMA RESPECTIVELY.  LIFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THESE SAME AFOREMENTIONED TIMES.
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE AROUND 16Z OR 17Z MONDAY.

STRONG DOWNWARD MOTIONS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROF CAUSES SKY
TO BECOME CLEAR AROUND 19Z TO 21Z MONDAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING
TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KT.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH THE ONLY
REAL CHANGES OF NOTE MADE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT/MON
MORNING, EXPAND HARD FREEZE WARNING BY A FEW COUNTIES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT, AND ISSUE A HARD FREEZE WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN
PANHANDLES. PRECIP STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH IT COULD BEGIN AS A BIT OF
RAIN BEFORE QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET, BEFORE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE OF SNOW IS REALIZED IN
MOST PLACES BY AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GOING AMOUNTS SEEM TO
STILL BE VALID WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKING TO BE ON
TRACK. SEE OUR FACEBOOK OR YOUTUBE PAGES FOR MORE GRAPHICAL INFO ON
THIS.

EXPANDED THE HARD FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE OCHILTREE AND BEAVER
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS NOT IN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS STRONG
WORDING ABOUT THE WINDS ALREADY.

MONDAY...
HAVE STAYED ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A RAW MID APRIL DAY ON
TAP. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY PEEL OUT OF THE AREA MON
MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
THIS NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE EVEN COLDER THAN TONIGHT AND HAVE
ISSUED A HARD FREEZE WATCH TO ACCOUNT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A WARM UP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WED NIGHT. AFTER A COOL DAY THU...ANOTHER WARM UP SHOULD BE IN
STORE FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. GOING SLIGHT CHCS FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT AND THU STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS A SHRTWV PASSES.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SIMPSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                27  46  26  65  37 /  30  30   0   5   0
BEAVER OK                  30  43  24  67  40 /  70  20   0   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              23  40  26  64  38 /  80  20   5   5   0
BORGER TX                  30  46  29  66  43 /  40  30   0   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              28  45  26  69  42 /  40  30   0   5   0
CANYON TX                  28  48  25  66  37 /  30  30   0   5   0
CLARENDON TX               31  48  28  65  40 /  30  30   0   5   0
DALHART TX                 25  42  23  65  39 /  70  20   0   5   0
GUYMON OK                  25  41  26  65  38 /  80  20   0   5   0
HEREFORD TX                29  46  24  65  37 /  30  20   0   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                31  46  25  66  42 /  50  30   0   5   0
PAMPA TX                   29  42  27  65  40 /  30  30   0   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                32  48  28  64  40 /  30  30   0   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              33  51  28  66  41 /  20  30   0   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...OCHILTREE...SHERMAN.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
     LIPSCOMB...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...
     GRAY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

03/17




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