Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 230448 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1048 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

AVIATION...06Z TAFs.
wind will be the main weather element for this fcst cycle.
Periods of high level clouds tonight will diminish by mid to late
Thursday morning. A vigorous upper level storm system will move
into the cntrl Rockies and adjacent plains states on Thursday,
well north of our fcst area. Winds will increase and become strong
and gusty by late morning Thursday and continue through the
afternoon hours. An Aviation Weather Warning will likely become
necessary at KAMA during this time period. Winds will still be
breezy after 03Z around 15kts, with gusts around 25kts. No
precipitation is expected through the end of this fcst cycle.

Andrade/Weber

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 334 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong winds and fire weather conditions are the main concerns for
the forecast period. Latest 22/12Z model and numerical guidance
continues to show a developing low pressure system moving
northeast into SW Kansas by Thursday. Out ahead of the the main
cold front with the developing surface low pressure system, an
upper level trough will work in to New Mexico which will help to
establish a strong west to southwesterly flow downstream of the
trough axis. A High Wind Watch is currently in effect for Thursday
afternoon across the central and western Panhandles with gusts
over 60 MPH at times. Will highlight the fire weather concerns for
Thursday in the Fire Weather section. A cold front will move
across the region late Thursday night through early Friday
morning. This will shift winds to the northwest and decrease to
10-15 kts by Friday morning. High temperatures on Thursday will
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s in the NW Panhandles to
lower 80s in the SE TX Panhandle.

As we go from Friday through the weekend, a zonal upper level flow
in-conjunction with northwesterly flow in the wake of the cold
front will bring temperatures back to near of slightly below
normal for late February. As we go toward Sunday evening through
early next week, a series of perturbations along a low amplitude
sinusoidal flow will develop across the Panhandles. An isolated
shower is possible for the northern TX and OK Panhandles toward
the end of the forecast period. Otherwise, tranquil weather
conditions are expected to continue with high temperatures above
average.

Meccariello

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions across the eastern Panhandles to
extremely critical fire weather conditions across the central and
western Panhandles are expected through out the day on Thursday.
Latest 22/12Z data shows consensus of 850-700 hPa thermal ridge
will set up with its axis from west central Texas into east
central Oklahoma. In-conjunction, a zonal 100-120 kt 250 hPa zonal
jet streak will set up across New Mexico which will provide a
large domain of upper level divergence across the Panhandles.
Forecast model soundings shows 700 mb winds of 40-60 kts across
the Panhandles, and especially once the mid and high level clouds
clear out of the western and central Panhandles, deep mixing is
expected to bring down those stronger winds in the afternoon hours
as the main mid level trough height gradients is quite steep,
especially across western areas. Min RH values Thursday will drop
as low as 8 percent. RFTI values will range between 5 and 8, with
highest values across the western Panhandles.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for the SW TX
Panhandle during the day on Friday as min RH values will be
between 10-15%.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                47  75  33  53  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  49  78  31  46  22 /   5   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              46  67  25  44  19 /   5   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  50  77  34  54  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              47  74  31  54  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  46  76  33  56  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               49  79  36  56  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 45  69  27  50  20 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  47  73  30  48  21 /   5   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                46  74  31  56  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                48  79  34  51  23 /   5   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   49  76  33  49  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                48  81  38  54  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              49  82  40  56  28 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CST Thursday for the
     following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...
     Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...
     Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...
     Oldham...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman...Wheeler.

     High Wind Watch Thursday afternoon for the following zones:
     Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hansford...
     Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore...Oldham...Potter...Randall...
     Sherman.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CST Thursday for the
     following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

     High Wind Watch Thursday afternoon for the following zones:
     Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

89/29


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