000
FXUS64 KAMA 182315
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
615 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
Good flying weather continues next 24 hours.  Only clouds will be
cirrus, with coverage increasing on Thursday.  No overnight
visibility restrictions expected.  Pressure gradient associated
with nearly stationary surface low pressure trof over eastern New
Mexico will tighten Thursday afternoon, with surface winds gusting
into the 25 to 30 kt range.  Until then, light and somewhat
variable surface winds will prevail.  VFR forecast continues next
24 hours.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 333 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Another pretty benign forecast is on tap with just a few slight
chances for some rain tomorrow night through Saturday.

Tonight through tomorrow night... Went below guidance for lows in
western sections of the area tonight and tomorrow night as guidance
has been too warm lately in those areas.  It`s getting kind of tough
to have lows in the 50s out that way anymore, even on the more
"humid" nights. Left the going slight chance of showers and maybe a
storm for the SW TX Panhandle tomorrow evening with a passing
shortwave. Seems like all shortwaves are producing precip lately, so
why not this one, right?  We could maybe get a rumble or two of
thunder, but that would be about it.

Friday through Saturday night... Breezy conditions will be noted on
Friday, and a weak ripple in the shrtwv pattern could produce a
storm or two along a sfc trough in the TX PH Fri afternoon/eve.
However, a pretty good inversion centered just above h8 will
probably keep most convection capped in spite of maybe upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE.

Meager storm chances continue in the eastern areas through Friday
night, before a more significant positively tilted shrtwv passes
Saturday with more dynamics and better instability in the far
southeast TX PH.  Any threat of storms early to mid Saturday
afternoon in the SE TX PH should quickly pass though as a cold front
plows through the area.  Hedged the timing a bit, but for the most
part the front should enter the OK PH in the morning sometime and
clear our area by early evening.  Found the highest wind speeds in
the guidance and used those, though this front shouldn`t blow as
hard as the one almost exactly one week prior to it last Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday... After a brief period of southerly sfc
winds, another relatively weak cold front looks poised to pass late
Mon or Mon night, though temps don`t look to be affected much.

Even with the passing cold fronts, temps will predominately be above
normal through the next 7 days, with Sunday likely being the
"coolest" day with highs around our average upr 60s to low 70s for
this time of the year.

Simpson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                51  78  55  77  57 /   0   5  20  10  10
Beaver OK                  47  81  56  80  58 /   0   0   5  10  10
Boise City OK              41  79  48  79  50 /   0   0  10   5  10
Borger TX                  55  81  58  79  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              45  80  50  80  56 /   0   5  20  10  10
Canyon TX                  48  78  54  78  56 /   0   5  20  10  10
Clarendon TX               54  79  56  76  58 /   0   0  20  20  20
Dalhart TX                 41  79  49  79  52 /   0   0  20   5  10
Guymon OK                  44  80  54  81  56 /   0   0   5   5  10
Hereford TX                47  77  51  78  55 /   0  10  20  10  10
Lipscomb TX                50  81  59  76  61 /   0   0   5  20  20
Pampa TX                   54  78  56  76  58 /   0   0  10  10  20
Shamrock TX                49  80  57  75  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
Wellington TX              48  81  58  77  60 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/21