Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 290610

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
110 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Poor flying weather expected for the next 24 hours.  Scattered
thunderstorms moving northeast could impact AMA and possibly GUY
during the next few hours . All terminals expected to remain in
IFR or LIFR flight categories for the duration of the forecast.
Snow will develop at northern terminals around sunrise, and at AMA
during the late afternoon.  North to northeast surface winds
gusting to around 35 kt will be common.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1055 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

Severe Thunderstorm Watch now in effect for the southeast TX
Panhandle. This will go through 6 AM CDT Saturday. Winter Weather
Advisories have replaced the Winter Storm Watch for the TX and OK
Panhandles. Snowfall amounts will range from 1 to 5 inches
Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening. Higher amounts will be
to the west and north, and lower amounts will be for the south and


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 642 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

A cold front continues to slide south across the Panhandles,
winds have shifted out of the north and increased  15 to 25kts
with slightly higher gusts. Ceilings will continue to lower
behind the cold front but should remain VFR/MVFR until early
Saturday morning. We expect to see a transition from liquid to
frozen precip at KDHT and KGUY around 13Z Saturday. KAMA will lag
behind the other terminals and possibly won`t make the transition
until after 18Z Saturday. Once the precip change occurs we will
likely see ceilings continue to worsen into IFR or possible LIFR
conditions. Confidence in timing is not high enough to add snow
to the prevailing forecast, so will continue with rain until
future TAF issuances.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 443 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/


Showers developing this afternoon across much of the Panhandles as
a vigorous upper low near the Four Corners region digs south and
east across central and eastern New Mexico tonight through
Saturday. The upper low is then forecast to track northeast across
the central Texas Panhandle and northeastern portions of the
forecast area Saturday night and Sunday morning. The upper low
will then lift north and east across Kansas and Midwestern states
Sunday night and Monday. Convection will continue this evening and
increase tonight across the Panhandles as a secondary surge of
much colder air pushes south into the forecast area tonight and
early Saturday.

Rain should change to or mix with snow across the northwestern
portions of the forecast area late tonight and early Saturday,
with the wintry precipitation shifting east and south across the
northwest half or two-thirds of the Panhandles by Saturday
evening. Snow will prevail across the northwest half or two-thirds
of the forecast area Saturday night through Sunday morning. As
the upper low tracks northeast away from the Panhandles Sunday
morning, wrap around wintry precipitation should linger over much
of the northwest half of the Panhandles through 18Z or 21Z Sunday.
Upgraded the northwest Texas Panhandle to Winter Storm Warning and
expanded the Winter Storm Watch east and southward to roughly a
Beaver to Amarillo and Canyon line. Extended the Winter Storm
Watch and Warning until 00Z Monday as lingering wintry
precipitation expected with wrap around the departing upper low.
Could see as much as a foot of snow in the higher elevations of
the western Oklahoma or extreme northwestern Texas Panhandles in
and around the Kenton, Black Mesa Park and Texline areas.

Temperatures early next week will be tricky as snow cover/snow
pack will hold down temps despite the warmer forecast model
guidance numbers. Clearing conditions early next week as drier
northwesterly flow aloft expected. Northern stream shortwave
trough forecast around the middle of next week bringing chances
for convection mainly across the northern and eastern portions of
the Panhandles. Progressive upper trough will allow for precip to
end Wednesday night with drier and moderating temps by the end of
next week.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT
     Sunday for the following zones: Carson...Deaf Smith...

     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Sunday
     for the following zones: Dallam...Hartley.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT
     Sunday for the following zones: Beaver.

     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Sunday
     for the following zones: Cimarron...Texas.



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