Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 241725

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1225 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Wind and the chance for a light shower will keep confidence for
the 18Z TAF issuance low. Currently we`ve see a slight weakening
of the gusts for KDHT as the surface low moves off to the east.
This could also affect the strength of the wind gust for KAMA and
has already affected to strength of the wind for KGUY. Have
lowered wind gusts for the start of the TAF slightly while adding
a tempo group to cover the light rain and intermittent MVFR
ceilings. Winds should remain out of a northwesterly direction
through this TAF cycle, and we could see an increase around sunset
at KGUY the low level inversion sets up. VFR conditions should
return and persist overnight and into tomorrow.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 524 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

The vigorous upper level low pressure system responsible for
Thursday`s severe weather and gradient wind events continues to
take shape over sern CO as of this writing. Satellite imagery
shows a very well wrapped up storm system. The surface low
pressure system is well identified over extreme sern CO and far
nern NM. These features are forecast to slide east southeast
across the area today. The steep pressure gradient will result in
very windy conditions for today. Have converted most of the area
to a High Wind Warning except the far eastern counties, where a
Wind Advisory has been issued. Have also included blowing dust in
the grids for srn TX Panhandle. Latest short range model progs are
all suggesting a more srn track to this storm system compared to
yesterday`s runs. Therefore, have expanded pops swd and ewd to
encompass nrn half of the fcst area for wraparound light
rain showers today due to the expected more srn track. Improving
conditions expected by sunset this evening. Saturday should be
rather quiet weather-wise.

The next storm system slated for Sunday continues to be progged by
all models to track just north of our fcst area, with the primary
precipitation shield remaining north and east of the TX and OK
Panhandles. A dry cold front will track through the area on
Sunday with northwest to north winds in the breezy to possibly
windy categories.

A short break in the active weather pattern is anticipated Monday.
Another vigorous upper level low pressure system is forecast to
impact the srn high plains Tuesday into Thursday morning. Medium
range models continue to disagree some on the projected path and
speed of this particular storm system. Have continued to lean
towards a model consensus with all weather elements associated
with this storm system pending better model agreement.

Finally, medium range models are hinting at yet another upper
level low pressure system possibly affecting the OK and TX
Panhandles around next Friday and Saturday, the details of which
have yet to be ironed out.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Collingsworth...Hemphill...Lipscomb...Wheeler.

OK...High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron...Texas.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Beaver.



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