Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 171003
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
503 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Not too many changes made to the forecast package compared to
the one previously issued. Dry weather will prevail across the
forecast area through the daytime hours on Friday as west to
northwest flow aloft continues over the region. A minor upper
level shortwave trof is progged by short and medium range models
to track across the srn high plains late Thursday and Thursday
night. Most models are dry with this system except the 00Z GFS.
Have omitted pops for this package during this time frame and
leaned with the majority solution pending better model agreement
with respect to precipitation potential.

Enough moisture may be in place later Friday into Saturday across
mainly the eastern zones ahead of the next upper level shortwave
trof and associated cold front to support mention of pops. Medium
range models, including the 00Z ECMWF, are in much better agreement
with the upper level trof being an open wave and moving across
the region Saturday as opposed to closing off downstate. The
corresponding cold front is fcst to track across the OK and TX
Panhandles on Saturday. Based on better model agreement this
morning, have restricted pops to the eastern sections Friday night
through Saturday night. A return to dry weather is then anticipated
Sunday through next Tuesday.

Andrade

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                81  49  82  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  80  46  83  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              80  44  81  45  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  82  52  84  53  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              82  47  84  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  82  48  82  50  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               80  49  82  52  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 81  44  81  45  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  82  45  83  47  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                82  47  82  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                79  47  82  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   79  49  82  51  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                79  48  81  52  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              80  48  82  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$



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