Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 221737
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1237 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017
VFR conditions expected with narrow bands of cumulus clouds known
as "cloud streets" possible through the afternoon. This will lead
to METAR reports of broken cloud cover from time to time when the
narrow band is over the ASOS, however scattered clouds are noted
in the TAFs as this is more appropriate for the overall coverage.
Clouds will be decreasing into the evening as high pressure
settles in. North winds will also be decreasing to light and
variable overnight into the morning hours then increase out of the
southwest towards the end of the period.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 624 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/
Low clouds are still lingering over the Panhandles, but it looks
like there will be some breaks and possible clearing ahead of what
the models are suggesting. IR satellite has cleared out KGUY with
KDHT and KAMA not far behind. Although clearing could occur, there
is still the possibility that low clouds could still advect back
over the TAF sites later today. Generally, the cigs will range
from 2-4kft agl, and should lift 5-10kft agl by 18Z. Thereafter
gradual clearing is expected. Winds will be out of the north
10-15kts gusting up to 25kts through about 00Z, then will diminish
out of the south and southwest 5-10kts.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 359 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/
Upper level disturbance continues to push east with northerly flow
on the back side for the Panhandles. Some low to mid level clouds
will still be present limiting today`s heating, but northerly
winds 10 to 15 mph will keep highs struggling to reach 60 across
Tonight winds will start to die down and skies will begin to
clear as high pressure moves over the forecast area. Strong
radiational cooling will lead to temperatures approaching
freezing. As a result we could see a frost Sunday morning. With
clear skies and returning south winds temperatures will be back in
the low 70s.
Sunday night into Monday flow will shift more zonal, but warming
aloft and sufficient mixing will allow for temperatures to reach
upper 80s to near 90.
Upper level trough axis will begin to move over the Panhandles on
Tuesday. Right now showers/storms look like they will be mainly
over the northern Texas, and OK Panhandle. The fast moving cold
front will move through and exit by Wednesday evening.
Models diverge a bit at this point, but overall an upper level
trough will begin to dive south, the timing and position of this
trough will drastically impact the extended. Multiple solutions
suggest anything from an overnight shortwave on Thursday morning,
leading to elevated convection, and a fairly strong cold front
behind. We could also see a deeper longwave trough centered mainly
over the four corners region with very warm southerly flow ahead
on Thursday. With southeast moisture advection ahead of this
system a strong dryline looks to set up along the eastern TX/OK
state line. Right now if we see sever weather, it will likely be
east of the Panhandles, which matches up with SPC`s 15 percent
prob severe for Friday over Oklahoma.
Strong winds will mix down on Monday afternoon with very warm
temperatures and relative humidities ranging from 10 to 20 percent
across the western and central Panhandles. Eastern portions will
be in the 20 to 30 percent. This will put most of the area in
Elevated Fire Weather conditions, and therefore a Fire Danger
Statement might be needed.
Tuesday and Wednesday will still be warm but humidities will be
higher and the southwest portions of the Panhandles might touch 20