Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 220517

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1217 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017


Confidence is moderate the terminals will be VFR for the
remainder of this period; however, its not out of the question for
a few brief periods of MVFR given thunderstorms are still pushing
through the Panhandles. Confidence was high enough to keep VFR
throughout for now. There is also another chance for
thunderstorms Thursday evening, but left this out for now since
the chances for this to come to fruition are somewhat low. That
being said, there is a chance for thunderstorms mainly after 00Z,
and they would be similar to tonight as in moving in from the
west/northwest. Timing would be something along the lines of 02Z
for KDHT, 03Z for KGUY, and about 05Z for KAMA. This would likely
bring MVFR ceilings and visibilities, or possible IFR for reduced
visibilities in heavier rainfall. Look for this to possibly be
added in the next set of TAFs as more data comes in.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 632 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/

Predominately VFR conditions will be throughout the 00Z TAF
period. To start the TAF period, MVFR/IFR conditions are possible
with convection near KGUY/KAMA. MVFR conditions are expected
within the first few hours in the designated TEMPO group as storms
are nearby. At times if convection moves over the TAF sites,
brief IFR conditions are possible with gusty winds and low cigs.
Storms are expected to move out of all TAF sites by 06Z with VFR
conditions returning to all TAF sites. Winds will be out the south
and southwest at times between 10-15 kts past 12Z tomorrow. Some
VCSH conditions are introduced at KDHT/KGUY toward the end of the
TAF period around 22Z as some precipitation may develop near these


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/

Similar to yesterday, current satellite and radar analysis are
showing building cumulus associated with convection developing
downstream of the high terrain across eastern New Mexico along a
surface trough. Temperatures have warming nicely through the mid
and upper 90s. Coupled that with good mid level lapse rates above
8 C/km, especially across the northern and northwestern
Panhandles, these areas will have the best chances of seeing
strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening
hours. Latest upper air profile analysis shows our freezing
heights slightly lower than at this time yesterday in-conjunction
with MUCAPE values between 2500-3000 J/Kg. Including inverted-v
sounding with good mixing this afternoon, damaging winds and large
hail will both be the main threat as we go in the afternoon and
early evening hours. Localized flooding will also be possible with
weak winds aloft in a very pulse like environment. If mesoscale
convective boundaries form with storms training, that could lead
to possible flooding with latest PWATs of over an inch. Latest
CAMs/HRRR illustrate more linear convection as we get into the
evening hours in which rainfall may reach as far southeast into
the TX Panhandle from a line stretching from Amarillo to Perryton.
Convection will dissipate as we go into the late evening and
overnight hours from north to south as we lose the daytime
heating. Some residual showers may linger across the far southern
TX Panhandle by Thursday morning. Low temperatures tonight will
range from the mid to upper 60s.

Our last day of well above average temperatures will be tomorrow
as southerly flow and eastward extending upper level ridge into
our region will bring very warm temperatures once again. Diurnally
driven convection across the northern Panhandles will be present
once again, with more of a limited coverage compared to today.
High temperatures Thursday will range from the mid 90s to lower

As we go from Friday into early next week, a slow but progressive
cold front will make its way through the Panhandles. Temperatures
from Friday through Sunday will progressively cool down with
highs well below average in the 70s by the time we reach Sunday.
Out ahead of this front will be very rich moisture which some of
its source will be a loose connection from now tropical Storm
Cindy near the TX/LA Gulf coastline. With PWATS in the +1 to +2
S.D. range in-conjunction with a good 800-600 hPa convergence line
lagging behind the main cold front, there will be several chances
of rainfall across the Panhandles with the best chances in the TX
Panhandle along the main cold front into the weekend. Specific of
rainfall amounts and timing of the cold front will be updated as
we get closer to this multi-day pattern in the next 48-72 hours.

Northwesterly flow aloft will return to the Panhandles by early
next week as the main cold front exits the region by early Monday
morning. Temperatures will also rebound to near average as we go
into early next week with an isolated shower or storm possible in
the far western Panhandles.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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