Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 292255
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
455 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Through tonight, a fast moving upper level shortwave trof embedded in
the overall large wcntrl and cntrl states trof will zip across the
srn high plains. The atmosphere is expected to remain rather dry,
with perhaps some virga showers possible, leading to a few sprinkles
if anything manages to reach the ground.

Otherwise, dry weather is anticipated through Thursday as the cntrl
states trof translates eastward.

The next upper level storm system is then progged to dig swd deep
into Baja California and northern Mexico this weekend, then weaken
and lift northeast across wcntrl TX towards the Red River Valley of
nrn TX by late Monday. Our forecast area will be on the northern
fringe of any precipitation associated with this storm system.
Numerical weather models continue to disagree on precipitation
prospects along with type. The 12Z ECMWF has trended warmer with the
overall temperature profile compared to previous runs while the 12Z
GFS has also warmed up slightly. Given these trends, have reduced
snowfall accumulations to less than 2 inches at any one particular
location at this time, and restricted the threat for snow to Friday
night and Saturday morning. Included slgt chc pops for light rain for
southeast TX Panhandle Saturday evening before the upper level storm
system loses its grip on the region. Dry weather is then slated for
Sunday through Tuesday.

Medium range models continue to suggest a much colder airmass will
invade the forecast area towards the end of this fcst cycle and
beyond. It remains to be seen whether any winter precipitation will
accompany this very cold airmass just beyond next Tuesday.

Andrade

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                24  52  23  52  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  25  51  20  49  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              20  48  19  46  20 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  27  53  25  51  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              22  53  21  49  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  23  52  23  52  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               28  54  27  55  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 20  50  19  47  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  24  50  20  49  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                21  51  21  53  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                26  52  21  52  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   26  52  23  51  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                29  54  27  55  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              31  55  29  57  31 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$



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