Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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519
FXUS64 KAMA 252345
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
645 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Monday. Light and variable winds will become east and southeast 5
to 15 mph after 02Z to 08Z Sunday, and then southwest to west 15
to 25 mph with gusts near 30 to 35 knots after 14Z to 16Z Sunday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 428 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Noteworthy items for this forecast package include the possible fire
weather Sunday (however looks better south of our forecast area) due
to strong wind speeds and dry conditions, as well as thunderstorm
chances through next week.

We begin a somewhat active pattern tomorrow through most of next
week. In the upper levels, a 500 mb cut off low will continue to
push east over the Plains, and we remain under clear skies today in
the wake of this low. Another 500 mb low will eject over the Rockies
tomorrow afternoon. We will have a small chance for rainfall, but we
will likely be dry slotted and end up dry for most areas. Better
chances for rainfall will be north and east of our forecast area
Sunday. Northern parts of the forecast area could see a few
thunderstorms to develop, but given the weak instability it doesn`t
look likely to see severe weather.

Early next week a trough develops over the west coast and digs south
over the desert southwest. At the surface, ahead of this low, we
should get dewpoints into the 40s and perhaps 50s by Tuesday with
return flow in place. We will have a chance for Thunderstorms each
period beginning Tuesday and going through Thursday. The best day
for severe weather chances will be Tuesday/Tuesday night, but really
the chances for severe weather are going to be best south of our
area. South of the Texas Panhandle is where the higher amounts (2000-
3000 J/kg) of instability are going to be. We only have 500 to 1000
J/kg of most unstable CAPE across the Panhandles on Tuesday, which
is still enough to support updrafts given bulk shear (0-6km) is on
the order of 50 to 60 knots. Some areas could see some appreciable
amounts of rainfall given we have rain chances through a good
portion of the week.

On Sunday most of the Panhandle will be in the 70s. Wind speeds are
going to be breezy Sunday as the surface low passes through with
strong height rises that cause a steep pressure gradient across the
Panhandles. Sustain wind speeds will range between 20 and 30 mph
with stronger gusts around 40 mph. Relative humidity values under 20
percent will be across southern parts of the Texas Panhandle. It
doesn`t appear now we will need a Red Flag warning, but a fire
danger statement will likely be need at the very least for Sunday.

Temperatures beginning Tuesday will be on the cool side through the
remainder of the week. Highs on Wednesday are only going to be in
the 50s for most areas except southeastern parts of the Texas
Panhandle where it will likely get to the mid 60s. Temperatures will
be close to normal are slightly below during this cool period. We
have been fortunate with above normal temperatures as of lately so
this will be a change of pace.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11



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