Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 100923
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
423 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER HIGH WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER HIGH MAY BREAK DOWN ENOUGH BY LATE FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO TRACK INTO THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND
ALLOWS FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT
THE SAME TIME...A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
TRACK SOUTH.

INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL MONDAY
OR EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE FINALLY SURGING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL UNDERCUT GFS MOS
GUIDANCE AND TRY TO LEAN MORE TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS
TO BE HANDLING THIS COLD FRONT MUCH BETTER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE TEMPERATURES SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASED CONVECTION CHANCES. UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MAINLY THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM
CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                94  66  93  66  92 /   5   5   0   0   5
BEAVER OK                 101  67 101  69 100 /   5   5   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              98  66  98  65  93 /  10   5  20  20  10
BORGER TX                  98  70  98  71  96 /   5   5   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              98  68  97  68  94 /   5   5   0   0   5
CANYON TX                  94  65  93  65  92 /   5   5   0   0   5
CLARENDON TX               95  68  94  68  94 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 96  64  96  64  92 /   5   5   5   5   5
GUYMON OK                 100  67 100  68  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
HEREFORD TX                92  64  91  62  89 /   5   5   0   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                98  67  97  68  97 /   5   5   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   94  66  94  66  93 /   5   5   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                97  68  95  68  94 /   5   5   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              98  70  96  70  97 /   5   5   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11




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