Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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217
FXUS64 KAMA 231052
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
452 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites through 12Z
Friday. Southwest to west winds 5 to 15 mph will increase to
around 25 to 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots between 16Z today
and 02Z Friday. Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts to near
35 knots at all three TAF sites after 02Z Friday...diminishing to
around 5 to 15 knots after 08Z Friday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 446 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A combination of very strong winds and low relative humidity values
will produce extremely critical fire weather conditions today
across the panhandles of both Texas and Oklahoma. A High Wind
Warning, Wind Advisory, and a Red Flag Warning are all in effect
today given the strong winds and dry conditions. Please see the
latest products for more information on timing and impacts.

Forecast soundings this afternoon are showing deep mixing and clear
skies. We should have no problem tapping into the stronger winds
aloft and mixing these down to the surface. The stronger wind speeds
will be across western parts of both the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles. This is where the High Wind Warning will be located.
Central parts of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles will be under a
Wing Advisory. Overall its going to be very windy day, and these
strong southwest winds will be advecting drier air in which will
result in single digit relative humidity values across much of the
Panhandles. As a result, all of the Panhandles will be under a Red
Flag Warning due to extremely critical fire weather conditions, and
confidence is very high these conditions will be met today. Extreme
caution should be used today when dealing with anything that could
potentially start a fire because one could become explosive very
quickly.

Between Friday and Tuesday each day there will be at least the
possibility for elevated fire weather conditions. Otherwise, beyond
fire weather threats, temperatures will be near normal to above
normal. Dry conditions are forecast through the extended as well.
There is a small chance our eastern zones could see some
precipitation Sunday/Sunday night but chances for rain appear better
east of the panhandles.

Guerrero

FIRE WEATHER...

Extremely critical fire weather conditions will exist today across
the Panhandles. In the mid-levels, a combination of a thermal ridge
due to warm air advection, and strong southwesterly flow will create
conditions at the surface conducive to explosive fire growth as we
mix out this afternoon. In addition, the air aloft is also dry as
well as the surface. Overall a very dry airmass will be in place
tomorrow with very strong winds, especially western parts of the
Panhandles. Confidence is very high for these conditions to be met
today.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this
     evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
     Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...
     Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...
     Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Roberts...
     Sherman...Wheeler.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CST this evening for the
     following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Donley...Gray...
     Hansford...Hutchinson...Ochiltree...Roberts.

     High Wind Warning from noon today to 7 PM CST this evening for
     the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...
     Moore...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Sherman.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this
     evening for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CST this evening for the
     following zones: Texas.

     High Wind Warning from noon today to 7 PM CST this evening for
     the following zones: Cimarron.


&&

$$

11/24



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