Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 190754
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
254 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING WITH
A FEW LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. TODAY WILL
BE WARMER AND WINDIER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXITS THE AREA.
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS BURNING OFF QUICKLY...HIGHS IN THE 70S SEEM
REASONABLE. FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF DEAF SMITH COUNTY SEES A FEW RAIN DROPS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER...IN THE LOW TO MID
50S...IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
HAVE VERY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...MAINLY AT NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS HIGH AND DRY. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...WITH LOCATIONS
NEARING THE 80 DEGREE MARK...WHILE A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE IN THE MID 70S BOTH DAYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE TIME FRAME IN THE
FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS DEFINITELY INCREASING THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
GFS BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW AGREE ALL PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S EXPECTED ON BOTH DAYS.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS TO BE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM OVER THE
PANHANDLES AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH SOME 80S EVEN EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE FOR THE END OF OCTOBER...AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE NEARING OR
EVEN SURPASSING THEIR AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE DATES...WITH NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OBSERVED YET THIS FALL AS WELL AS NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. FOR
ONCE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PANHANDLES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO HOLD ON TO
FALL ALL THE WAY THROUGH OCTOBER...WHILE KEEPING OLD MAN WINTER AT
BAY...FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                73  53  77  53  75 /   5  10  10  10   5
BEAVER OK                  79  52  80  51  81 /   0  10   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              75  50  74  49  75 /   5  10   5   5   5
BORGER TX                  77  56  80  55  79 /   5  10   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              75  51  78  51  76 /   5  10  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  73  53  77  51  75 /   5  10  20  10  10
CLARENDON TX               76  53  82  54  79 /   5  10  10  10   5
DALHART TX                 75  50  77  50  75 /   5  10  10  10   5
GUYMON OK                  78  52  79  51  79 /   0  10   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                73  51  77  50  74 /  10  10  20  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                77  55  81  54  81 /   0  10   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   74  53  78  53  77 /   5  10  10  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                75  54  82  55  80 /   5  10  10  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              76  57  83  58  81 /   5  10  10  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

KNS



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