Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 261747 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1147 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS DECREASING
AND VEERING TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
AFTER 00Z.

KNS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.  GENERALLY CLEAR
SKY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IS FORECAST.  NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO ABOVE 25 KT THIS
MORNING.  SURFACE WINDS DECREASE NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH DIRECTION BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY EARLY EVENING.  LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...TRENDING TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST BY 12Z
THURSDAY.  NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST
CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. SOME
CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK...POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AND TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A WEAK FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNRISE BRINGING
A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING
THE DAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT RISES. LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS MEAN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. ITS ORIENTATION WILL PLACE THE PANHANDLES IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AND WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. MODEL TRENDS IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE HAVE RESULTED IN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED. ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
PROGRESSING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO INCREASE HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE BLEND. EVEN IF MODELS ARE TOO SLOW
WITH THE FRONT...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR
MASSES...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE VALUES GIVEN BY THE BLEND WHICH HAS SOME
INFLUENCE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS/FORECASTS.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR WARMING AFTER A SHORT
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFOREMENTIONED POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS. ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH UPPER RIDGING
BEFORE A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS BUT EACH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. A SHORT DURATION OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SEEMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONGEST 20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MISALIGNED. BETTER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ON SATURDAY
WHEN DEEPER MIXING MAY OCCUR.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$



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