Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 281742
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1242 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016
Well-defined MCV over southwest Texas Panhandle shows up nicely in
satellite and radar data. As this feature moves slowly northeast,
expect surface winds to take on a southeast component at the
terminals. Expect thunderstorms early in forecast period to develop
in eastern parts of the forecast area along and near outflow boundary
running north-south through this area. Will cautiously keep thunder
out of terminals in the near term until stronger signal for close
development is presented. Chances for more widespread thunderstorms
appear higher this evening as low-level jet develops and strengthens.
Apart from brief visibility reductions in thunderstorms, VFR
forecast continues next 24 hours.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 648 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/
For the 12z TAFs...scattered showers are mainly east and south of
all TAF sites this morning. Can`t rule out a stray MVFR shower
developing over any of the sites but will be short lived.
Otherwise...scattered to numerous storms should redevelop this
afternoon and evening across most of the area. All sites have
potential to be impacted...so maintained prob30 starting at 21z.
Isolated storms could form prior to 21z...but not confident enough
on timing and location of initial convection to include in tempo
group. Expect VFR through period except for local MVFR/IFR with
any storms that develop.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 502 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/
Very little has changed from that seen on Saturday`s progs with
respect to the overall theme of the wet pattern seen for the srn high
plains, including our fcst area, for at least the first half of this
7 day forecast cycle. An upper level ridge of high pressure well to
our east and an upper level trof of low pressure to our west will
keep the TX and OK Panhandles in a moist south to southwest flow
aloft for much of this week. All short and medium range models
suggest this continuation of moisture streaming into the TX and OK
Panhandles into the middle of this week. In addition, minor upper
level shortwave trofs embedded in the overall flow pattern coupled
with some daytime heating and attendant atmospheric instability
suggests rather decent pops are warranted today through Wednesday,
then trending down Wednesday night through Thursday night. Both the
00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF are in general agreement for most of this 7 day
forecast period and were accepted. Have tailored pops and temperatures
around a combination of the 00Z ECMWF and 00Z GFS model output in the
short and medium range periods.