Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 291037
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
537 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Rain is already transitioning to snow in the northwest Panhandles
this morning with reports of around 1 inch so far in Texline.
GOES-R low level water vapor shows the classic comma shape of an
mid-latitude system that is transitioning into the mature phase with
the western Panhandles beginning to see the edge of the warm
conveyor belt. We can also see a deformation zone becoming more
defined in Colorado. As this system continues to slide eastward,
the northern Panhandles will see increasing moisture and ascent in
the dendritic growth zone, leading to enhanced snowfall rates. As
cold air advection takes place due to the northerly winds that are
in place, the rain will continue to transition to snow from
northwest to southeast throughout the day and into the overnight
hours. The heaviest amounts will be in the northwestern Panhandles
since they have the longest amount of time under snowfall
production and due to being the closest to the deformation zone.
On Sunday, the low pressure system should begin to push northeast
out of the area and place the Panhandles in the dry slot. This
should allow precip to end from southwest to northeast. As we
break out of the clouds, temperatures will see a slight warming as
opposed to the almost steady/slight decrease in temps on Saturday.
Snowfall amounts will range from 6 to 10 inches or so in the
northwest and 1 to 4 inches elsewhere with the far southeastern
Texas Panhandle likely getting less than 1 inch.

The beginning of the work week starts with dry northwest flow
aloft and allow things to dry out and begin to warm up again.
However, by mid-week another longwave upper level trough swings
down across the Rockies and brings another shot of rain and
isolated thunderstorms. Instability looks weak so the severe
weather threat should remain low. The end of the week into the
weekend looks dry as high pressure takes over.

Beat


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                39  30  51  34  70 /  70  60  30   0   0
Beaver OK                  40  32  44  34  66 /  80  80  60  10   0
Boise City OK              33  27  41  29  54 /  90  70  40   0   5
Borger TX                  41  32  51  35  71 /  80  60  40   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              39  31  53  33  70 /  80  60  30   0   0
Canyon TX                  40  31  54  34  72 /  70  50  20   0   0
Clarendon TX               45  33  55  40  74 /  60  50  20   0   0
Dalhart TX                 35  29  46  30  64 /  80  60  30   0   0
Guymon OK                  36  30  44  32  62 /  90  70  50   5   0
Hereford TX                40  30  54  34  73 /  70  50  20   0   0
Lipscomb TX                42  33  47  35  69 /  80  70  50  10   0
Pampa TX                   40  31  48  36  70 /  70  60  30   0   0
Shamrock TX                46  35  53  39  74 /  70  60  20   0   0
Wellington TX              48  37  56  40  76 /  60  50  20   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT
     Sunday for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Deaf
     Smith...Gray...Hansford...Hemphill...Hutchinson...
     Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Potter...Randall...
     Roberts...Sherman...Wheeler.

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for the following
     zones: Dallam...Hartley.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT
     Sunday for the following zones: Beaver.

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for the following
     zones: Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

3/16



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