Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 240010 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
610 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

For the 00Z TAFs, a back door cold front pushed southwest across
the terminal sites today. Expect low clouds and IFR cigs to impact
KGUY, KDHT, and KAMA later this evening and persist thru the
night before burning off Saturday morning. Some patchy fog or
freezing fog is possible later tonight, with KGUY the most likely
TAF location to. Once low clouds and any patchy fog or freezing
fog burn off Saturday morning, a Pacific cold front will move thru
the region with gusty northwest winds in its wake.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 405 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/

The backdoor front has left the eastern zones today in cloud cover
and temps in the 30s. Meanwhile, those that saw the sun in the
west were able to make it into the 50s and 60s. The rest of the
week will see 50s and 60s. Those in the central to east will have
a chance at drizzle to freezing drizzle tonight with the front.
Models were split on whether the sounding would fall all below the
freezing line or just warmer than it. The mid-level longwave
trough is currently over the Great Basin region and will push east
to pass near the area on Saturday. This will bring a cold front
to the area with gusty winds. Sunday will see a quick shortwave
push through which will bring more breezy winds. The beginning of
the workweek will see lee-side troughing and temps increase into
the 60s and more breezy to windy conditions with the downsloping
air. By mid-week the next longwave trough is progged to close off
and bowling ball towards the area. Models are again somewhat split
whether it will slide south or north of the area. If south, we
will miss most of the precip; however, if north, we may see some.
For now, have stuck mostly with the blend which leaves us mostly
dry until models get more consensus.


Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible
Saturday through Monday, and then elevated conditions will be
possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

For Saturday: RFTI values are expected to be 1-2 in the OK
Panhandle and 2-4 for the TX Panhandle with 3-4 in the western TX
Panhandle. RH values will range from 10 to 15 in the southwestern
1/3 of the area and increasing to the northeast. 20 ft winds will
be 20 to 35 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph. Winds will be turning
from westerly to northwesterly.

For Sunday: RFTI values drop back to 0-1 with a spot of 2 in the
far southwest TX Panhandle. RH values across the area drop to 12
to 17 percent. Winds will be 15 to 25 mph from the west to

For Monday: RFTI values come up again to 1-4 with 3-4 in the
northwestern area. Minimum RH values will be 9-15 percent across
the area. Winds will be southwesterly at 15-25 mph.

By Tuesday & Wednesday: RFTI values drop back to 0-2 for the area
with 1-2 remaining only in western zones. RH values will be 11-20
in the west on Tuesday and 16-20 in the west on Wednesday. Winds
will be southwesterly at 10-20 Tuesday and turn westerly to
northwesterly Wednesday at 15-25 mph.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Dallam...Deaf

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for the following zones: Cimarron.


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