Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 292318 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
518 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS
THE AREA DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BEGINS
TO IMPACT THE REGION. GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE AFTER
18Z FRIDAY AND HAVE OMITTED MENTION ON THIS FCST CYCLE. IT MAY BE
INCLUDED ON THE NEXT ISSUANCE IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
PSBLTY. CIGS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
LATER FRIDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. WHILE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE A WINTRY MIX
WILL FALL. TIMING WISE...THINK IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON
BEFORE WE START SEEING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WHILE
TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS SUPPORT MOSTLY JUST RAIN FOR THE
EVENING COMMUTE. OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH FREEZING AND
A CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
WEST OF A GUYMON TO SPEARMAN TO CLARENDON LINE. THIS TIME PERIOD ALSO
COINCIDES WHEN PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND
WHEN ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...THOUGH THESE TOTALS WILL
LIKELY VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR SNOW OCCURS. OVERALL...THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES IN THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE APPEAR THE MOST LIKELY
PLACES FOR IMPACTS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARM UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND LIKE FRIDAY...MOST
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH INTO MEXICO AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLES WHICH ALSO SHOULD HELP TO DRY THINGS
OUT FOR SUNDAY. AFTER SUNDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER.
APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD REMAIN QUIET
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$







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