027
FXUS64 KAMA 021720
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

-Chances of showers and thunderstorms remain present for Wednesday
 and Thursday with each day seeing roughly 20% to 40% chance. Any
 storm could produce very heavy rainfall leading to localized
 flooding.

-A brief break from showers and thunderstorms looks possible for
 the Western Panhandles for the upcoming holiday and cloud see
 increasing temperatures with highs returning to the lower 90s.

-More chances for showers and thunderstorms return for the holiday
 weekend as a secondary system pushes in Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Moisture continues to move into the panhandles from the south this
morning. This is currently causing a large low to mid level cloud
shield across much of the panhandles that will persist through
the day. Within this cloud a few isolated rain showers are
occurring with low amount of rainfall accumulations. During the
afternoon daytime heating will provide for marginal instability
with a few areas getting close to reaching convective temperature.
This will allow for a low chance that stronger surface based rain
showers and thunderstorms form during this time. Any storm that
does manage to form will have high moisture to tap into which will
allow it to produce heavy rainfall. These storms will also have
weak steering motion which will allow for long residence times in
a given spot. This means that there is a low chance for flooding
in the TX panhandle from any of the rain shower or thunderstorm
that manages to form. With all the ample moisture and cloud cover
present today will have a high chance of remaining cool and cloudy
with highs in the 70s to the 80s. Thursday has a high chance of
the high pressure over the region retreating enough to allow for a
broad weather system to move into the panhandles. This weather
system will provide a slight increase in the instability over the
panhandles which in turn make it slightly more likely for rain
showers and thunderstorm to occur. However the overall chance of
any rain shower or thunderstorm occurring will remain at low for
Thursday. As there will still be high, near tropical levels, of
moisture across the panhandles any rain shower or thunderstorm
that manages to form on Thursday will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall and flooding. With the passage of a weather system
the winds across the panhandles will see an increase with
southerly gusty winds for the daytime hour. An expected decrease
in cloud cover for Thursday will allow for a little higher heat
with high climbing solidly into the 80s across the panhandles.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

The weekend and into early next week has a moderate to high chance
of remaining and active period for weather across the panhandles.
During the weekend this will be from the retreating of the high
pressure eastward which will allow for a couple of broad weather
system to move across the panhandles. These weather system bring
an increase in the instability which will allow for rain showers
and thunderstorm to form during the afternoon and evening. High
moisture will have a moderate to high chance of remaining across
the panhandle during this time which will continue to allow for
heavy rainfall and flood from any of the storms. Then for next
week the pattern shifts with a four corners high setting up across
the desert southwest. This will bring a northwest flow across the
southern plains which will allow for more broad weather system to
push into the panhandles. This biggest shift for these later
weather system is that the high moisture currently over the
southern plain will have a moderate chance of retreating leading
to overall slightly drier conditions. This makes it less likely
for storms during the later portions of the week to produce heavy
rainfall and flooding. This doesn`t mean a zero chance just a
reduced chance. The weekend and into next week will have a
moderate to high chance of being hot as it will broadly remain
under high pressure even if the high pressure itself changes from
one to another.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals for the rest
of the afternoon to evening. There are currently developing rain
showers which can become thunderstorms in the southern and central
TX panhandle. KAMA has the highest chances of being impacted by
these storms with KDHT having a lesser chance. These storms will
persist into the late afternoon before coming to an end. These
storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that can cause
localized IFR or worse conditions in the heaviest rain. During the
overnight hours a low level cloud deck has a moderate to high
chance of forming and impacting much of the panhandles. This would
start in the south at KAMA and spread north to KDHT and lastly
KGUY. Conditions within the cloud deck are most likely to be MVFR
but a few thicker sections down to IFR have a low chance of
occurring.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...89