Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 231733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1233 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017


For the 18Z TAFs:

Low overcast/broken ceilings continue to be the theme today.
Conditions should eventually improve to VFR later this afternoon.
However, models are suggesting MVFR clouds again later during the
overnight hours tonight. There could be some fog around as well.
There is also the small chance for thunderstorms to impact the
terminals, but it looks best for KDHT at this time. That being
said, left this out for now because confidence is too low this
will happen. If it does happen, it could be between 11Z and 14Z
timeframe, so look for this to be in possible future TAFs. KAMA
could be mentioned as well.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 633 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/

For the 12z TAFs...
Widespread stratus across forecast area being detected at this
time by satellite.  Expect to see LIFR ceilings with IFR
visibilities through around 15z at AMA and DHT, with only
occasional MVFR ceilings and visibilities at GUY through 15z.
Gradual improvement at AMA and DHT expected between 15z and 18z.
All terminals expected to return to VFR conditions by 18z with
good flying weather continuing well into Wednesday evening.
Expect to see another round of early morning ceilings and
visibilities at AMA and DHT develop before sunrise Thursday, as
post-frontal surface ridge extends southwest into Panhandles.
Threat for isolated thunderstorms today confined to southern and
western parts of forecast area, with likelihood of a direct impact at
any of the terminals too low to include in forecasts at this time.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 411 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/

An upper high over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies will
continue to provide the Panhandles with a northwest upper flow
pattern through the end of the week and into the weekend. A
shortwave trough will exit the forecast area this morning and may
allow for some drying later today and tonight as subsidence
prevails behind the departing upper trough. Another shortwave
trough is then forecast to approach the Panhandles by late
Thursday and bring additional chances for convection Thursday and
Thursday night. This shortwave trough will track slowly east
across the forecast area Friday night and Saturday allowing for
the chances for convection to continue into the weekend. A surface
ridge will build into the Panhandles through the weekend
maintaining a cool and moist upslope surface flow.

The upper high over northern Mexico and southern Rockies is
forecast to build over the Great Basin region by the weekend which
will result in the upper flow becoming more northerly. Compounding
this will be the remnants of the tropical system Harvey in the
Gulf which will cause the upper flow to transition to more
northerly and also allow for subsidence to spread north and west
into the Panhandles. As a result, should see decrease in
convection chances especially by late in the weekend and the
first half of next week. Drier and more seasonable conditions are
expected by Sunday night and Monday and continuing through
Tuesday. Northwesterly flow aloft could return to the Panhandles
by the middle of next week and bring convection chances once again
to the forecast area.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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