000
FXUS64 KAMA 110906
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
406 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING NOW WILL ELONGATE AND
SPLIT AS IT DIVES SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO AND KANSAS TODAY. A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BLAST ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS VERY TIGHT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WYOMING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MILES
AN HOUR ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH GUST TO AROUND 60 MILES AN HOUR
IN SOME SPOTS. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TURNED THE HIGH WIND WATCH INTO
A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ONLY THE FAR EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE IN A WIND ADVISORY. BLOWING
DUST MAY ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO ONE MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MET ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO 15 PERCENT OR BELOW AHEAD
AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE WIND SHIFT AND SUDDEN INCREASE
IN THE WIND WILL ALSO CAUSE UNPREDICTABLE FIRE BEHAVIOR SHOULD A
FIRE START.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD BE BELOW 20 MPH
BY MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MODELS STILL WANT TO PAINT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE PANHANDLES WILL ARRIVE BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHEAST ON THE EAST SIDE
OF A WEST COAST RIDGE AND IT INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AGAIN...THE MODELS WANT CHANGE THEIR TUNE
SINCE IT IS A NEW DAY. THEREFORE...WILL NOT INSERT ANY PRECIP FOR
LATE NEXT WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GET DOWN INTO THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
START TO RECOVER SOME BEHIND A COLD ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MID AFTERNOON...
BUT WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO ANY
ONGOING FIRES COULD HAVE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR DUE TO THE SHIFTING
WINDS WITH THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEY
WILL BE BELOW 15 MPH BY AROUND MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                71  24  52  28  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  70  26  55  26  69 /   5  10   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              66  22  49  26  64 /   5  10   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  73  28  54  34  66 /   0  10   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              72  26  53  29  68 /   0  10   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  73  24  53  26  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               76  28  56  31  66 /   0  10   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 70  21  51  24  65 /   5  10   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  70  24  54  26  67 /   5  10   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                71  24  52  26  63 /   0  10   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                72  31  54  25  68 /   0  10   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   70  27  52  31  62 /   0  10   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                78  31  55  29  66 /   0  10   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              83  32  58  31  68 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...
     HEMPHILL...WHEELER.

OK...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/15