Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 291800 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
100 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

For the 18Z TAFs, generally IFR conditions will prevail for most
of this fcst cycle with periods of light snow and attendant low
vsbys and low cigs as a vigorous upper level storm system moves
across the region. Strong and gusty north to northwest winds are
also anticipated, which will likely lead to areas of blowing and
drifting snow at KGUY and KDHT. Improving conditions are expected
late Sunday morning.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 628 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

IFR and LIFR ceilings expected to prevail next 24 hours with
visibility being reduced by snow and blowing snow.  North surface
winds expected to gust into the 35 to 40 kt range today with only
a slight diminishment expected this evening.  At AMA, onset of
snow expected to occur around 20z, with some mixing with light
rain prior to full transition.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 537 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

Rain is already transitioning to snow in the northwest Panhandles
this morning with reports of around 1 inch so far in Texline.
GOES-R low level water vapor shows the classic comma shape of an
mid-latitude system that is transitioning into the mature phase with
the western Panhandles beginning to see the edge of the warm
conveyor belt. We can also see a deformation zone becoming more
defined in Colorado. As this system continues to slide eastward,
the northern Panhandles will see increasing moisture and ascent in
the dendritic growth zone, leading to enhanced snowfall rates. As
cold air advection takes place due to the northerly winds that are
in place, the rain will continue to transition to snow from
northwest to southeast throughout the day and into the overnight
hours. The heaviest amounts will be in the northwestern Panhandles
since they have the longest amount of time under snowfall
production and due to being the closest to the deformation zone.
On Sunday, the low pressure system should begin to push northeast
out of the area and place the Panhandles in the dry slot. This
should allow precip to end from southwest to northeast. As we
break out of the clouds, temperatures will see a slight warming as
opposed to the almost steady/slight decrease in temps on Saturday.
Snowfall amounts will range from 6 to 10 inches or so in the
northwest and 1 to 4 inches elsewhere with the far southeastern
Texas Panhandle likely getting less than 1 inch.

The beginning of the work week starts with dry northwest flow
aloft and allow things to dry out and begin to warm up again.
However, by mid-week another longwave upper level trough swings
down across the Rockies and brings another shot of rain and
isolated thunderstorms. Instability looks weak so the severe
weather threat should remain low. The end of the week into the
weekend looks dry as high pressure takes over.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Deaf Smith...Gray...Hansford...

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for the following
     zones: Dallam...Hartley...Sherman.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for the following
     zones: Beaver.

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for the following
     zones: Cimarron...Texas.


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