Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 250545 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1245 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

For the 06Z TAFs, expect episodes of showers and thunderstorms to
continue over the region durg this fcst cycle as a cold front sags a
bit further south and the atmosphere remains moist and unstable. It
appears greatest likelihood of showers and tstms will be at KGUY,
followed by KDHT, and then KAMA. Short range models suggest potential
MVFR cigs at KGUY for awhile this morning, and have retained previous
fcstr`s idea.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 903 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

Have updated graphical forecasts, increasing pops in northwest where
stronger dynamics and shear expected to continue supporting
thunderstorm development.  Have also called for areal qualifiers
across roughly northwest half of forecast area.  Have lowered pops
slightly in south central and southwest part of forecast area, where
weaker dynamics and shear will provide a less favorable environment.
Made adjustments to temperatures also, with cooling commencing
earlier in north and northwest.  Updated text products will be
issued shortly.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 643 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

Uncertainty abounds with this forecast.  In the very near term, GUY
and DHT will have greatest likelihood of a direct impact from a
thunderstorm, based on current radar trends.  Will monitor all
convective developments closely and amend as necessary.  Other issue
is timing of frontal passage.  Will assume that surface winds at DHT
remain northeast and north tonight, with wind shift to north forecast
to occur at GUY around 06z.  Light rain showers forecast for all
terminals after 06z with the possibility of thunder addressed.

Have forecast MVFR ceilings at GUY before sunrise.  Timing of
development and dissipation of same is also uncertain.

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible at all
terminals as cold front moves farther south.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 323 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

Tricky forecast over the next several days. The cold front that was
expected to push into the Panhandles is hung up over the Oklahoma
Panhandle and far northwest Texas Panhandle. The NAM is the only
model that pushes it further south, while all other models do not. It
is a reasonable scenario that the front will be held up as the short
wave moving in from New Mexico is not as strong and the upper ridge
to our east remains in place. For tonight, there are two focus
areas, one in the northwest near the frontal boundary and a second in
the southeast where a good moisture plume could produce some lift and
a marginal potential for severe weather. Otherwise, will blanket the
region with chance pops due to uncertainty in location and progress
of thunderstorms from west and south. Expect a repeat for decent
chances of moisture again on Thursday evening and night.

Appears we`ll have a reduction in shower and thunderstorm chances for
Friday, but the remainder of the weekend and into early next week
still look to be on the wetter side. Pacific moisture plume riding
along the western edge of the upper high will persist and model
soundings continue to indicate precipitable water values near the one
inch mark. A weak upper ridge is forecast to develop towards the
middle of next week allowing for drier air and warmer temperatures.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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