Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 201455

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
955 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Surface high pressure is currently centered just east of I-25 near
the CO/NM boarder. Temperatures finally dropped into the mid to
low 30s in Cimarron Co. for about an hour but generally stayed in
the high 30s and low 40s elsewhere early this morning. Frost is no
longer a concern as temperatures are coming up as of 14z and wind
speeds are increasing as mixing occurs so dropped the Frost
Advisory early.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 555 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/

North winds may get a little gusty at the AMA TAF site, but winds
should stay below 15 knots at DHT and GUY. Winds will then decrease
to less than 10 knots by late in the afternoon and then turn around
to the south overnight. Skies should remain VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 339 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/

A dry weather pattern will continue for most of the forecast period.
As we go into the day tomorrow, we will have one more day of slightly
below average temperatures as a northerly wind will bring cool and
dry conditions to the Panhandles. Our region is upstream of a
digging upper level trough moving east across the Ozarks during the
day on Thursday. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the
lower 60s in the NW Panhandles to near 70 in the SE TX Panhandle. As
we go into Thursday night, latest 20/00Z numerical and probabilistic
data does show winds beginning to shift to the south and then
southwest by early Friday morning. Winds will be light, but this will
keep low temperatures a bit warmer compared to Wednesday night and
early Thursday morning.

A small amplified upper level ridge will work east across central
Texas toward the Gulf Coast throughout the weekend into early next
week. This will bring an established southwesterly flow across the
Panhandles. In return, well above average temperatures are expected
well into the middle of next week. Some of the latest 20/00Z global
model guidance does show a slight chance of precipitation across the
far eastern Panhandles Tuesday afternoon. GFS shows some moisture
transport into the region downstream of a low amplitude 700 hPa upper
level trough with Td`s in the mid to upper 50s across the east while
the ECMWF continues with dry conditions under a zonal flow. Forecast
reflects the average and left a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
far eastern Panhandles. Temperatures will remain above average as we
go into the middle of next week.


Fire weather concerns will be minimal as we go into the day on
Thursday. Once we go into the day on Friday through the weekend, a
southwesterly flow will return to the region. Min RH values Friday
through Sunday will be below 20% across the central and western
Panhandles. Winds will be between 10-15 kts during the day on Friday
and Saturday. This will be borderline elevated criteria during the
day on Friday and Saturday. Winds will average below 10 kts as we go
into the day on Sunday.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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