Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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126 FXUS64 KAMA 112231 AAA AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 531 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 A weather system continues to impact the southern plains through the rest of the weekend. This system is still over the desert SW today but it is progressing ever eastward increasing its influence over the panhandles. Currently the placement of this system has set up a SE wind field over the region which is pumping ample moisture to the panhandles. This moisture is fueling the rain showers and thunderstorms that the panhandles is currently experiencing. As additional moisture arrives through the rest of today and Sunday the amount of rain showers and thunderstorms will increase. In addition the higher amounts of moisture will allow for higher rainfall amounts to occur from any given rain shower or thunderstorm. Sunday will see the system depart the desert SW and pass over the southern plains. The passage of this system will spin up a surface low during the morning hours in the western panhandles and eastern NM/CO. This feature along with the weather system itself will provide additional instability and shear. These in turn will help to strengthen and organize the expected thunderstorms. This increased activity will be most prominent in western panhandles for Sunday morning. This activity should then shift to the eastern panhandles during the later morning hours before departing eastward prior to noon. This early activity may provide some inhibition that would inhibit thunderstorm development during the afternoon to evening hours. However if enough instability is able to regenerate then further round of thunderstorms can be expected. It is this second round of thunderstorms which would have the best environmental conditions to become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat. Current thinking is that the central to NE portions of the panhandles will be the area of concern for these thunderstorms as these areas are less likely to have been impacted by the morning convection and be able to regenerate CAPE. As the surface low pushes eastward it will shift the wind direction initially to the west then to the NW. This will help to move moisture out of the panhandles with the rain showers and thunderstorms ending slowly in a west to east fashion starting Sunday afternoon. This system will be capable of producing accumulations of half an inch to even over one and a half inches for spots that see multiple round of rain showers or thunderstorms. However flooding chances are expected to be low around 5 percent as it is unlikely that any one spot will see continued heavy rainfall over a short duration. It would be more likely for spots that see the high end rainfall to see a rain shower here and there that will then add up to the higher amounts. The passage of this weather system coupled with the ample cloud cover, rain showers, and thunderstorms will lead to cooler temperatures through the weekend. SH && .LONG TERM ... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 As the upper low begins to exit on Monday, areas of increased lift on the backside of the system may help to continue generating some showers and embedded storms across the northeast Panhandles through the afternoon hours. Tuesday will be warmer and dry, with highs in the 80s forecast area wide. Although most guidance is dry Tuesday, there are hints that moisture return to the area may be ahead of schedule, with a stronger push of 700mb theta-e advection from the west. If a subtle shortwave can manage to round the crest of the upper level ridge by Tue afternoon-evening, we can`t entirely rule out a stray storm or two somewhere over the Panhandles. But given the unfavorable large scale pattern, this would only support a <20% chance of precipitation. Wednesday continues to be our day of interest, when models agree an approaching trough will help to break down and displace the 500mb ridge. If moisture advection to the area is already in place, instability should be able to build by Wed afternoon as temperatures climb back into the 80s. Assuming deep-layer shear ahead of the trough is sufficient, we could see some strong to severe thunderstorms develop in the area ahead of an approaching cold front. Additional showers and storms could develop overnight into Thursday along and behind the cold front as it moves through, until the better dynamics exit and dry air returns. After a brief cool down on Thursday, above average daytime temperatures return heading into the weekend. There is still plenty of uncertainty amongst model guidance, but at this time the signal appears to be suggesting an active pattern is possible next week. Harrel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Thunderstorms are expected at DHT and GUY overnight. Showers are expected to affect AMA toward sunrise and during the rest of the morning hours. MVFR conditions are expected at all sites overnight into Sunday morning. MVFR conditions are then expected to improve to VFR Sunday afternoon. Winds will generally remain southerly at 10 to 15 knots, but will be stronger with the thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 54 76 50 77 / 80 70 20 10 Beaver OK 53 72 50 74 / 80 90 60 30 Boise City OK 47 71 47 74 / 90 80 20 20 Borger TX 55 79 51 80 / 90 70 30 10 Boys Ranch TX 54 79 48 80 / 90 50 20 10 Canyon TX 54 77 47 78 / 80 60 10 0 Clarendon TX 55 73 52 77 / 80 80 30 10 Dalhart TX 49 73 44 76 / 90 60 10 10 Guymon OK 51 73 48 76 / 90 80 40 20 Hereford TX 54 78 47 80 / 80 40 10 0 Lipscomb TX 54 71 52 74 / 80 90 70 20 Pampa TX 54 73 52 76 / 90 70 40 10 Shamrock TX 54 71 52 77 / 70 90 60 10 Wellington TX 56 71 54 78 / 70 90 50 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...15