000
FXUS64 KAMA 291134
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST ROUND WILL COME THIS
MORNING...WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY AT KGUY AND ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SLOWLY APPROACHING KAMA AND KDHT. MVFR
AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION. IN
ADDITION...SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING IFR CIGS TO DHT THIS MORNING
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
THEN LIKELY THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THIS
LATER ROUND IS LOW...BUT WILL RETAIN A VCTS MENTION LATER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT /DEPENDING ON THE SITE/.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN SPITE OF VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES ANALYZED AT 06Z...LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCED BY KAMA VAD WIND PROFILE.
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND MODEST LIFT
FROM INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LEAD US TO EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THIS TIME.  KAMA RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS INDICATE
THAT THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED ONE INCH OR MORE.  THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHARP 700 MB
TROF PASSES...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER...LESS UNSTABLE AIR ARRIVING AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS.

HAVE LOWERED POPS ON THURSDAY...DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR.  POPS ON FRIDAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED IN AREA TO
INCLUDE ONLY WESTERN SECTIONS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING IN THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER CONDITIONS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH INTERMITTENT
RAIN CHANCES. THUS NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/03