Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 191801

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
101 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

18Z Issuance...VFR conditions expected through the period for all
sites. Northerly winds will persist with KDHT being the gusty site
with gusts up to 30kts. KAMA and KGUY should remain aob 15kts with
perhaps random 20kt gusts. KDHT should calm after 01Z.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 601 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016/

Winds will pick up behind a cold front this morning with the
strongest winds at DHT. Winds will then decrease toward sunset into
the 10 to 15 knot range. Skies are expected to remain VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 322 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016/

Dry and cool weather is expected across the Panhandles Today through
the end of the work week thanks to a pair of cold fronts. The first
brought us much cooler temperatures yesterday with the second
expected to move across the Panhandles Today. Today`s cold front is
expected to enter the Panhandles around midday before proceeding
south of the area by this evening. This will allow for a wide range
of temperatures across the Panhandles with 60s across the NW to 80s
across the SE. The cold front will also help our overnight
temperatures drop even further than this mornings. We will likely see
a frost to light freeze across the western Oklahoma and northwestern
Texas Panhandles late tonight into early Thursday morning. As such
a Frost Advisory will be issued with this mornings forecast package.

High temperatures on Thursday will be near or slightly below normal
for this time of year (lower to upper 60s) as winds remain out of the
north. We could see another light frost across the western Oklahoma
Panhandle but there is a chance that winds will stay strong enough to
stave off advisory issuance.

As we go into the weekend, surface winds will return to a southerly
direction as an upper level ridge builds over the Panhandles. This
will allow our temperatures to once again rise into the 80s for the
weekend. Thankfully we should remain below the 90 degree mark as
things look now.

Temperatures remain steady in the lower to mid 80s through the early
part of next week under southwest flow aloft. Medium range models
continue to struggle with the next potential round of rain. Forecast
trends have been for a drier solution with a "carrot" at 168 hours
each model cycle. Have kept the extended portion of the forecast rain
free, but will keep a close eye on the mid-week trough.

Cooler temperatures across the Panhandles Today should preclude
elevated fire weather conditions however, relative humidities are
expected to drop into the 20 to 25 percent range across the western
Panhandles. A cold front is expected to push through the area this
afternoon which will cause winds to be from a northerly direction and
increase into the 15 to 25 mph range. The 20-ft winds will quickly
diminish this evening as the cold front pushes well south of the

Temperatures begin to warm Friday through the weekend which may
result in elevated fire weather conditions for the western half of
the Panhandles. Relative humidities each day are expected to drop
into the 15 to 20 percent range with southwest 20-ft winds around
the 15 mph mark.

A return of low level moisture early next week should preclude fire
weather concerns.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM CDT Thursday for the following
     zones: Dallam...Hartley.

OK...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM CDT Thursday for the following
     zones: Cimarron.



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