Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 102002
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
302 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO ACTIVE NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IF CURRENT MODEL INDICATIONS PAN OUT...UNBELIEVABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR JULY WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MAINLY DRY TIMES: TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEAK AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL HIGH
COUNTRY CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S SOUTH TO AROUND 100 NORTH. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE PREVALENT ON SUNDAY THAN ON FRI OR
SAT.

THE MORE ACTIVE TIMES: SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...

AN ANAMOLOUS UPR LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL BUMP THE UPR RIDGE IN CHARGE OF OUR WEEKEND WEATHER TO THE
WEST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT. THIS FIRST FRONT
WILL LIKELY HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH SUN NIGHT AND
MON. A REINFORCING PUSH IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT AS THE MAIN AXIS OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES UPR LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT
PLAINS AND MIDWEST. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK PRETTY DARN GOOD WITH THIS
PUSH, ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN PANHANDLES AND HAVE UPPED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROMOTE AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY AND WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE WELL OVER AN INCH, HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVE PROCESSES SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL
HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON WHEN AND WHERE STORMS FORM THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BEHIND THE
MON NIGHT COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES COULD VERY WELL RESEMBLE OCTOBER,
WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY FAILING TO REACH 80 IN MOST PLACES TUE, WED, AND
THU.

SIMPSON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE WEATHER AND FUEL CONDITIONS.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                68  93  68  93  69 /   0   0   0   5   0
BEAVER OK                  71 101  73 100  73 /   0   0   0   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              69  99  69  97  68 /   5  10  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  72  98  72  97  74 /   0   0   0   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              69  98  70  96  70 /   5   0   0   5   0
CANYON TX                  66  93  67  93  67 /   0   0   0   5   0
CLARENDON TX               70  95  71  95  71 /   0   0   0   5   0
DALHART TX                 67  98  67  95  67 /   5   5   5   5  10
GUYMON OK                  71 100  72 100  71 /   0   0   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                65  92  66  91  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                71  97  72  97  72 /   0   0   0   5   0
PAMPA TX                   70  95  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                71  97  72  95  71 /   0   0   0   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              73  97  73  97  72 /   0   0   0   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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